International Conference on Somalia -- 7 May 2013

[malistar2012]

" frameborder="0" allowfullscreen>

 

 

Listen to Turks , Somali FG should lead the nation , That Six Pillar Policy should be implemented . last but not least all initiative should be approved by FG first regarding Somalia territory .

[Illyria]

Oodweyne,

Aaah that would explain 'cos with Iraq out of the equation, and Syria collapsing with Israel picking at its military ediface, the US is putting its final touches to its grand plan of its next target, Tehran.

[xiinfaniin]

Anyone has Uhuru Kenyatta's speech? I am particularly interested to see how he handled his first trip to overseas as the second sitting president under indictment...

[Illyria]

In all fairness, all I see is the good old carrot and stick economic politics at play. Any more readings into it is just guess-based commentary at best. Will have to wait to see how Hasan handles the Jubaland leadership once it has been annonuced in a few days.

 

And more importantly, how the institution and capacity building initiatives take off.

[xiinfaniin]

Illyria;947101 wrote:

In all fairness, all I see is the good old carrot and stick economic politics at play. Any more readings into it is just guess-based commentary at best. Will have to wait to see how Hasan handles the Jubaland leadership once it has been annonuced in a few days.

 

And more importantly, how the institution and capacity building initiatives take off.

Right on. To deduce from this communique that IC endorsed Hassan to reverse a two year reconciliation effort at Kismayo because of untested political plan of his is just not correct.

 

EDIT: the IC would interfere in favor of Hassan if it were apparent that a Jubbaland federal state will undermine the president and overall national reconciliation effort ...

[xiinfaniin]

^^I think you are reading too much into it. Like many commented nothing in this communique can be deduced by any impartial to be objecting to what is taking place in Kismayo . But you are entitled to your opinion, saaxiib.

[Mintid Farayar]

Baashi and Illyria,

Thanks for clarifying those thoughts.

 

Separately, to Baashi:

You're correct... The Jubbaland initiative preceded Hassan Sheikh's administration but thanks to the Wikileaks scandal, we got access to what the U.S.(one of the key actors in this saga) thought of the whole idea. U.S. diplomats were strongly skeptical of the whole project and even pointed out(from the perspective of American diplomats writing the cables) the destabilizing clan-agenda of its key Somali boosters. The Kenyan Foreign Minister and Security Minister(the deceased Saitoti, at the time) were heavily encouraged to abandon the idea. The cables also mentioned the Ethiopian ambivalence to the whole project (fears of the region serving as a reserve ground for ONLF combatants).

 

So what changed? The Kenyans realized that the only way to carry through the project is to present it solely as an Extremist/Al Shabaab-eradication exercise(a tactic the whole world has learned to use in order to gain American support). Once the support is gained, then to implement the Jubba project under the aegis of Kenyan/Ras Kamboni control on the ground.

Good plan, thus far...

 

The question is: will Western decision-makers for the East Africa portfolio endorse this project?

 

Or is quiet pressure being applied on the Kenyans to slowly concede the ground to the Federal Government under the pretense of Somali sovereignty? How much leverage does a Kenya under the leadership of Kenyatta have?

The BBC had this to say re:the dynamics of Kenyatta's stature in Britain:

 

The BBC's Karen Allen says the UK had been agonising about how to invite Mr Kenyatta without losing face after warning before the election that it would have only "essential contact" with him if he was voted into power.

 

UK officials note that Mr Kenyatta is co-operating with the court - unlike Sudan's President Omar al-Bashir.

 

A UK foreign office spokesman said it was "right" that Kenya should be represented at the conference and that this did constitute "essential contact".

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-africa-22425869

This is an obvious allusion to the diminished stature of Kenyan leadership(in Western eyes) under the current administration.

 

Secondly, if the Kenyans are forced to back down by Western donors, how will the supporters of Jubbaland on the ground react? Will they seek an accomodation with the Federal Gov't?

 

I had pointed out in early March that the latest Security Council resolution(2093) which partially lifted the Somalia Arms Embargo gave Hassan Sheikh exclusive discretionary control over the entire Somali charcoal trade (an important source of revenue for the Ras Kamboni faction). That article reads:

44. Underlines its support for the President of Somalia’s task-force charged with providing solutions on the issue of charcoal in Somalia, demands that all appropriate actors cooperate in full with the task-force, and looks forward to receiving recommendations and options from the Federal Government of Somalia in this regard;

 

 

Overall, it seems the international forces allied on the Federal Gov't side far outweigh the ones supporting the Jubba initiative. Granted, a grave miscalculation on either of the 2 Somali sides could upend the entire narrative...

[Illyria]

I hear the conversation inside the hall was not as amicable as the written communique seems to suggest. Word has it Hasan took an exception to points in the communique, and it was still passed without his input. A worrisome sign akin to a cruising train with its supposed driver riding on with the passengers. So who is in driving seat then?

 

The voices of the protesters are loud and clear, and could not be ignored. Hasan is in for a rough ride home and abroad.

 

 

[Illyria]

By listening to Bill Burns, US Deputy Secretary of State, who stood in for Kerry, I am growing less hopeful than I were before. Security, which replaced the infamous war on terror under Obama, seems to STILL be dominating the theme. Granted no other country commits more than the US in these efforts from Japan in the 40s to Germany in the 90s to Iraq to Syria in 2013.

 

 

[Illyria]

And the most honourable partner at the conference was Turkey.

 

 

[NGONGE]

Overall, it seems the international forces allied on the Federal Gov't side far outweigh the ones supporting the Jubba initiative. Granted,

a grave miscalculation on either of the 2 Somali sides could upend the entire narrative

...

That's really all that is needed to say on this matter. Who blinks first?

[N.O.R.F]

Illyria;947314 wrote:

By listening to Bill Burns, US Deputy Secretary of State, who stood in for Kerry, I am growing less hopeful than I were before. Security, which replaced the infamous war on terror under Obama, seems to STILL be dominating the theme. Granted no other country commits more than the US in these efforts from Japan in the 40s to Germany in the 90s to Iraq to Syria in 2013.

Less hopeful about what exactly? Isn't security the biggest issue in Somalia today and for the past 20 years?

 

Mintid, apparently Kenya's finger prints are no where near the Jubbaland issue (good analysis by the way).

[Mintid Farayar]

Oodweyne,

 

You presented an interesting time frame re:the grace period Hassan Sheikh has to show positive results to his international string-pullers.

 

While the Kismayo issue has been overhyped in the bigger scheme of things(on this Board at least), the greatest barometer of success or failure for his administration(from the EU & US perspective) will be in

 

1)Effective governance of the areas under the control of the Federal Government

 

2)Delivery of public services to those areas

and most importantly,

 

3)the Public Finance Management of his administration - this will be key. Western donors want all funds to come through public, internationally-monitored channels. The slush funds coming from Muslim, cash-rich states which are directly distributed to Somali politicians are seen as a destabilizing factor by Western donors. Significant pressure is being exerted on these Muslim states to distribute their cash aid through the monitored channels rather than the usual disbursements to individual Somali politicians. These funds have been an issue since the Arta/Abdiqasim days - and the West has awoken to the extreme complications this brings to their Somalia plans. The initiatives of the African states (such as Kenya, Ethiopia, Uganda, etc.,) are easier to control given their own budgetary Western-donor dependence.

[xiinfaniin]

I cannot help but lough at the false , epic struggle between "the international forces allied on the Federal Gov't " & other forces "supporting the Jubba initiative" .

 

This is so out of touch

[Mintid Farayar]

Oodka,

 

Good points re:limited thinking of the West when it comes to the Somali situation. But from the Western perspective, Somalia has never been the focal point of Western interest in East Africa nor the Horn.

Lately, though, it's turned into a problem that's affecting the whole region and the greater designs for that region - with its twin problems of internationally terrorism and global piracy along critical shipping lanes.

 

Hassan Sheikh's government was anointed as the 'local solution' to the Somali problem. You can deduce this from the considerable Western political resources implemented to increase his 'diplomatic prestige'. Examples include:

1)sharing the stage with global international superstars like H. Clinton and Cameron,

 

2)co-hosting international conferences with major world powers,

 

3)receiving European foreign ministers in Mogadishu to announce the launching of 'virtual embassies' in Somalia(even though all diplomats continue to still work from Nairobi),

 

etc., etc.