International Conference on Somalia -- 7 May 2013

[Illyria]

To me it means one or two things. In the context of the Somali FG, it means the gov't put a plan forward, and made promises to commit itself to its implementation, therefore as the financier and backers of the gov't, "we welcome" translates to mean conditionally they [powers that be] are encouraging and supportive of the terms of the plan in front of them. And since the plan has not commenced yet, that support is contingent upon its successful implementation, Phase 1 => End. if they however deviate from the plan, then it is back to square one.

[Baashi]

Are you sure? If that's the case then it is back to square one!

 

The communique "endorced" :

 

...the dialogue on the future structure of Somalia that has begun between the Federal Government and the regions. We welcomed progress on forming regional administrations and looked forward to the completion of that process. We encouraged the regions to work closely with the Federal Government to form a cohesive national polity consistent with the provisional constitution."

 

Illyria is righ on...

[Baashi]

Oodweyne;947041 wrote:

Mintid

 

As for your ultimate question I think it will largely depend how he politically stabilised his country in the next 2 to 3 years. And in that sense he is no more different than Karzai of Afghanistan since in his early days the Bush regime sold him to be the panacea of the trouble od that country. And now they are bailing out on him since he has proven to be such an incompetent creature.

 

So I say our Hassan of Mugadisho has a few years to milk the West in support of his agenda abs come 2015 at latest if he is still up to his neck with endless political and constitutional argument with some section of the Somalis he will then become just another stooge who couldn't deliver when it mattered the most and therefore like Karzai he will be left to political wolves of his country to devoured him.

 

Agreed.

[Mintid Farayar]

Oodka,

 

You took the 'Karzai' analogy right out of my mouth

 

Baashi,

 

Since you choose to concentrate on that passage you posted above(I don't think it's that significant in the larger scope of things)....

 

...the dialogue on the future structure of Somalia that has begun between the Federal Government and the regions. We welcomed progress on forming regional administrations and looked forward to the completion of that process. We encouraged the regions to work closely with the Federal Government to form a cohesive national polity consistent with the provisional constitution."

 

The question is 'the progress of whom on forming regional administrations' is the so-called IC welcoming?? Is it Hassan Sheikh's forming of provisional administrations in certain regions or is it the Jubba initiative they are welcoming??

[Baashi]

Mintid,

I am not focusing anything here. Awoowe ha naga dhabqin sheekada . We are dicussing politics and that sectuon seemed appropriate section to look at.

 

Now they are not endorsing any particular plan. And the way I read it the authors of the communique view the formation of regional admins as a joint responsibility between the center and the periphery.

[Mintid Farayar]

The raison d'être for this entire Conference is an attempt to marshall the different non-Somali initiatives ongoing in Somalia to fall in line behind the Anglo-American strategy for the region.

 

Of these initiatives, there are many. There's a lot of foreign cash floating around Mogadishu(primarily coming from Muslim states flush with cash) which doesn't come through the financial monitoring mechanisms set up by the West thru the UN. There's the Kenyan-endorsed Jubba initiative which has its troublesome maritime boundary implications for the booming hydrocarbon industry in East Africa, there's Ethiopian disenchantment(the favorite surrogate of the West in the region when it comes to security issues/Al Shabaab) with diminishing military-budget support from both the EU and US.... and the list goes on.....

 

All of these have the potential to upset and destabilize the Anglo-American blueprint for the region and Somalia

[xiinfaniin]

Is it significant that US Secretary of State John Kerry did not attend the Conference ?

 

Remember Mrs. Clinton attended London Conference 1

[Baashi]

Mintid Farayar;947053 wrote:

The

raison d'être

for this entire Conference is an attempt to marshall the different non-Somali initiatives ongoing in Somalia to fall in line behind the Anglo-American strategy for the region.

 

Of these initiatives, there are many. There's a lot of foreign cash floating around Mogadishu(primarily coming from Muslim states flush with cash) which doesn't come through the financial monitoring mechanisms set up by the West thru the UN. There's the Kenyan-endorsed Jubba initiative which has its troublesome maritime boundary implications for the booming hydrocarbon industry in East Africa, there's Ethiopian disenchantment(the favorite surrogate of the West in the region when it comes to security issues/Al Shabaab) with diminishing military-budget support from both the EU and US.... and the list goes on.....

 

All of these have the potential to upset and destabilize the Anglo-American blueprint for the region and Somalia

Right there. Awoowe you just made a bull's eye. A direct hit!

[Illyria]

I would also agree with this assessment.

 

Mintid Farayar;947053 wrote:

The

raison d'être

for this entire Conference is an attempt to marshall the different non-Somali initiatives ongoing in Somalia to fall in line behind the Anglo-American strategy for the region.

 

Of these initiatives, there are many. There's a lot of foreign cash floating around Mogadishu(primarily coming from Muslim states flush with cash) which doesn't come through the financial monitoring mechanisms set up by the West thru the UN. There's the Kenyan-endorsed Jubba initiative which has its troublesome maritime boundary implications for the booming hydrocarbon industry in East Africa, there's Ethiopian disenchantment(the favorite surrogate of the West in the region when it comes to security issues/Al Shabaab) with diminishing military-budget support from both the EU and US.... and the list goes on.....

 

All of these have the potential to upset and destabilize the Anglo-American blueprint for the region and Somalia

[Illyria]

That is a good question, but I do not know. Do we know where he is? Detained by duties elsehwhere? Perhaps working on Phase 2 of US mission in Syria after Israeli bombardments.

 

xiinfaniin;947054 wrote:

Is it significant that US Secretary of State John Kerry did not attend the Conference ?

 

Remember Mrs. Clinton attended London Conference 1

[Mintid Farayar]

So (Baashi and Illyria),

 

If you both agree with me on that being the real purpose of the Conference, which I outlined for you 4 days ago, by the way....

 

Mintid Farayar;945698 wrote:

The organizers of this Conference will attempt to sideline the Jubba issue. Not only the Jubba issue, but all internal Somali political issues.

 

The purpose of the Conference is not to be a 'Donor Conference' as some have claimed here, but rather for the key stake-holders to streamline their various initiatives and strategies in their 'Somalia' stabilization programs. Currently, you have disjointed initiatives coming from various corners of the IC, with much duplication and actions and funding at cross-purposes.

 

Three areas will be tackled in this Conference:

1)the Security Sector

2)improving Somalia's public finance management(PFM),

and finally

3)the need to move to a

unified

, long-term development plan for Somalia.

The sole purpose of the Conference is to coordinate the IC's various initiatives in these 3 areas.

 

The actual 'Donor/Funding' Conference will be in Brussels in the Fall/Autumn of 2013.

What's the use of trying to parse the language to see which internal Somali actor got the upper hand?

[Baashi]

Oodweyne, I disagree. IC is privy to the roadmap and the history of the JL's effort in forming a federal state in deep South. This effort preceded Hassan and is inline with the Constitution.

 

Xiin, I don't know. Come to think of it, I now wonder why that is the case. Could it be he's tied up with Syria and never-ending mess that is ME.

[Duufaan]

Mintid

 

somaliland talks, are very much part of that policy! Mr Hasan got little room to deliver anything with his luck of outreach and comprimise

 

Mintid Farayar;947053 wrote:

The

raison d'être

for this entire Conference is an attempt to marshall the different non-Somali initiatives ongoing in Somalia to fall in line behind the Anglo-American strategy for the region.

 

Of these initiatives, there are many. There's a lot of foreign cash floating around Mogadishu(primarily coming from Muslim states flush with cash) which doesn't come through the financial monitoring mechanisms set up by the West thru the UN. There's the Kenyan-endorsed Jubba initiative which has its troublesome maritime boundary implications for the booming hydrocarbon industry in East Africa, there's Ethiopian disenchantment(the favorite surrogate of the West in the region when it comes to security issues/Al Shabaab) with diminishing military-budget support from both the EU and US.... and the list goes on.....

 

All of these have the potential to upset and destabilize the Anglo-American blueprint for the region and Somalia

[Illyria]

I was agreeing with your assessment of the West's plan for Somalia, but the discussion was primarily to do with its implications on the ground, which is where Oodweyne and I disagreed. Again, not who got an upper hand, but its implications on the ground which is what matters the most.

[Baashi]

Mintind,

 

The family squabble and which child gets the upperhand matters in the sense that without having these family members reconciled and on the same page, the large schemes these foreign powers have for Somalia will not materialize.