Turkey to host three-way talks with presidents of Somalia, Somaliland

[STOIC]

Haha..No comment until the talks are over and we shall see who is going to budge so we can ridicule all that is spewed here...

[Carafaat]

International Community Leverage:

 

On Somalia:

 

Security:

Amison troops from 5 or 6 diffrent countries, diffrent training missions and programs for police, army and marines.

Political:

Facilitates the complete Federal Goverment, as well as regional processes like Jubbaland(IGAD), Baidoa/Beletweyn(Ethiopians).

Financially:

Direct budget support and funding to goverment and regional processes.

 

 

 

On Somaliland:

 

Security:

Funding of Police trainings.

Political:

-

Financial:

Funding of INGO, UN agencies development programmes. No direct budget support for goverment.

 

 

Clearly and objectively the International community has much and much more leverage in Somalia, because the complete goverment, security

And political process in Somalia is directly steered and supported by IC.

[NGONGE]

There are those in SL who are suspicious of these talks. They don’t believe that Somalia is a legitimate partner and rather think that because SL had gained its independence by force of arms, it should not demean itself by going back to sit down with those it defeated. Their argument is that there are no talks to be had and that SL’s position is very clear.

 

Then there are those that believe that SL will still have to talk to Somalia because of the proximity of that state and in order for SL to disentangle itself from everything Somali (debts, border demarcations, compensation and peaceful co-existence). Siilaanyo seems to subscribe to this latter group.

 

The rest of those in SL are happy to seek separation by any means necessary and, since they already believe that SL is separate, view these talks as the final nail on the coffin of the Somali Republic.

 

So, as you can see, discussion and differing points of view regarding these talks do exist and are very lively in SL. Though they all disagree on the method used to achieve the final goal, they nonetheless are all unanimous in their desire to see the separation rubber stamped.

 

With Somalia however, nobody really can tell what the government of Hassan Sheikh thinks. They are all sweet and conciliatory in their words (no political pressure or force, hope for unity, etc). Yet, it is the same nonsense they have used within their own backyard but are still finding themselves falling out with everyone.

 

The Somali commentators have been mostly silent about these talks and one can’t find any that are opposed or in support of these talks. Well, I say any even when I can see Xiin’s desperate attempts to present his simplistic opinion as some well thought out and thorough analysis of these talks!

 

At any rate, in order for one to analyse these talks and their eventual outcome, one has to inspect the publicised aims of the talks (not the desires of SL or Xiin). These are all about clarifying the future relationship between SL & Somalia. Clarifying a relationship can be anything from separation to full integration and anything in between. Bear in mind that the International Community, at this stage at least, is only here to encourage, support and facilitate these talks, not to mediate.

 

So, who has more reason for optimism here? Somaliland that has been planning for this day for two decades or Somalia that keeps changing presidents and politics every day? Somaliland that is united in its desire to ratify its independence or Somalia that tilts according to the desires of whoever is in charge at any point in time? Somaliland that has believed in its independence for twenty two years or Somalia with an FM that discovered the virtues of unity three months ago?

 

Xiin really shouldn’t be asking his crystal ball any questions about Somaliland and should rather direct his questions and complaints to the Hassan Sheikh camp. In fact, any Somali that believes in the unity of Somalia should put all his energies into questioning, scrutinising and pressuring the Somali government into ensuring that Somaliland never secedes. This silence and preoccupation with minor issues such as Jubbaland, looted houses and Merca struggles may encourage Hassan Sheikh to think that the Somalis of Somalia are ambivalent about the statues of Somaliland and he may, just may, drop the ball. Where will that leave Xiin, eh?

 

Change of tactics, saaxib, change of tactics.

[Naxar Nugaaleed]

Am not going to pretend that I am privy to some sort of secret information which has become the custom in SOL but few things are clear. neither party going into this conference has a mandate to concede much ground. Silaanyo wont be able to sell to people in hargeisa who have for some odd reason have been clamoring for "recognition" for two decades to return to somalia overnight and president Hassan has better chance of sending a mission to mars then getting members of parliament to accept dismemberment. the likely scenario is a stalemate and a promise to continue these talks in another time and place. If we want to be optimistic though, this is not a Israel/Palestine negotiations, Somaliland can agree to shelf its bid for statehood for a certain period, peacefully resolve issues with its Eastern neighbors and Somalia can agree to a special autonomous status until the end of that period.

[NGONGE]

^^ That has always been my opinion too.

 

Naxar Nugaaleed;936690 wrote:

Am not going to pretend that I am privy to some sort of secret information which has become the custom in SOL but few things are clear. neither party going into this conference has a mandate to concede much ground. Silaanyo wont be able to sell to people in hargeisa who have for some odd reason have been clamoring for "recognition" for two decades to return to somalia overnight and president Hassan has better chance of sending a mission to mars then getting members of parliament to accept dismemberment. the likely scenario is a stalemate and a promise to continue these talks in another time and place. If we want to be optimistic though, this is not a Israel/Palestine negotiations, Somaliland can agree to shelf its bid for statehood for a certain period, peacefully resolve issues with its Eastern neighbors and Somalia can agree to a special autonomous status until the end of that period.

I doubt anyone in SL believes these talks are the be all and end all of the situation. If I had to hazard a guess, I would say that most expect these talks to fail. Still, when they do fail, how many will ask Hassan Sheikh why they failed? (Siilaanyo is already getting the heat).

[Naxar Nugaaleed]

^no one, they're busy Jubaland and looted properties in muqdisho. Seriously, I think everyone is aware of the fact that Hassan can do no more then say short of separation, am game. where all expecting failure, one wonders why they agreed to these talks to begin at this point.

[Legend of Zu]

NG

"They don’t believe that Somalia is a legitimate partner and rather think that because SL had gained its independence by force of arms, it should not demean itself by going back to sit down with those it defeated. Their argument is that there are no talks to be had and that SL’s position is very clear."

So by that Logic, if today Awdal and Sool/Sanaag take up arms against SL Admin and declare they are independent or they want to reunite with the South, then would SL admin let them secede? what would bind these states (in North West) together as one nation?

 

Mind to clarify that NG,

[Xaaji Xunjuf]

^^ If you control the land you have an important input in all decisions

[NGONGE]

^^ I gave you a position of some of those in SL, not my own take LOZ.

 

As for what you ask; if the issue was similar to that of SL and they were in control of the land itself (with all the admin, army, etc)..err, I suppose they'll have to have talks and probably be in exactly the same place SL is in today (assuming, of course, that SL is a recognised state).

[Legend of Zu]

Xaaji Xunjuf;936699 wrote:

^^ If you control the land you have an important input in all decisions

So you're saying it is about control? and not the will of the people?

 

NG, you make sense, but my point is SL admin are banking more on the emotional response of the masses rather than laying down strong foundation for nation building, does that make sense? even if today SL is recognised it is longevity is under threat, me thinks.

 

My thinking is the only way the international community will recognise SL is through a referendum. would the SL admin accept that, i doubt, too proud.

[Xaaji Xunjuf]

A UN supervised referendum on indepedence for Somaliland if it makes the Koonfurians happy i see why not lets go for it. I think that Something Siilaanyo and co could actually sell to the people of Somaliland.

[Legend of Zu]

^^^ what if some regions vote for unity? would the SL case be the same as Canadian Quebec, be in the union but every now and then a new nationalism will campaign for a new referendum?

 

Would be acceptable to you

[Xaaji Xunjuf]

We will see the result later lets have the referendum first and see where it goes from there if the majority of the people of SL vote for independence than independence if the majority of the people vote for union than union it is. Legend most regions in SL are all shared there is no region in SL where one clan or sub clan clearly is the majority.

[NGONGE]

Legend of Zu;936703 wrote:

So you're saying it is about control? and not the will of the people?

 

NG, you make sense, but my point is SL admin are banking more on the emotional response of the masses rather than laying down strong foundation for nation building, does that make sense? even if today SL is recognised it is longevity is under threat, me thinks.

 

My thinking is the only way the international community will recognise SL is through a referendum. would the SL admin accept that, i doubt, too proud.

This is why I said I agreed with the guru when he mentioned Sudan. I've alway been of the opinion that this is where it will end. Still, the signs today are much better than when Cigaal declared that 97% chose SL in that referendum of his.

[malistar2012]

It gets deep for Silaanyo admin Locals are know supporting FG and are accepting Fg leadership as it stands

 

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