Jubbaland will not be built this way.

[xiinfaniin]

^^that, I must say, is unfortunate ---such attitude of false pride is what perpetuates our conflict.

[Gabbal]

Xiin-

 

But if it is as you say that the project is entirely inclusive (and I daresay 3/5 of the stakeholder signatures are from Gedo) what is there for me to envy? You are constant in being disengenious. I expect such retorts from you as I expect the sly weaseling in of the capital idea to frame my argument.

 

If you inquired with genuine interest, you would have easily seen I am not actively against this conference nor actively in favor. I know for certain the farce passing of that " regional" constitution has brought greater impetus to move against this process from government. Shirdoon is more motivated to move against this process than the vilified-president could ever be.

 

I assure you with utmost credibility this is not about Gabbal the individual but what Gabbal has come to find out is the full strength of the strategy which the Internationally-recognized Federal Government wants to pursue.

 

The Prime Minister's travel to all neighboring and AMISOM- contributing countries (except Kenya if it has not come around by that time---the groundwork is being worked on with the upcoming government) is to shore up support before full diplomatic, political, and military offensive is waged against this rebellious project the government strongly feels will distabilize the ensuing reconciliation of the country and the proper methods of federalization to be agreed to.

 

The government will first and head on tackle the idea of this being an "IGAD" project with full diplomatic and political offensive bringing Ethiopia and Djibouti inline with the official Somali government position thereby isolating the idea of this being "IGAD" project. The government then will solicit backing from the major AMISOM troop countries to shore up the impartiality and professionalism of the force on a Africa-wide fora. Then the government will implement a program to move Somali national troops from three directions into Kismaayo once the Sierra Leone troops have moved into key installations. The project which has already been laid unconstitutional will be joined with a delegitimization of the curent transitional Kismaayo admin which the PM hinted in his press conference in Mogadishu. The official government position will be the transitional Kismaayo admin "waa lagu degdegay" which the government will rectify by naming an administration for Kismaayo and the Lower Jubba after the heavy influx of Somali national troops and Sierra Leone contingent. The men in Kismaayo now do not have good grace besides the government and will be sidelined as easily as the Mogadishu warlords have been sidelined once this security arrangement has been implemented and the regional political position has been harmonized with the Somali government.

 

Obviously I have only showcased a minimum encapsulation of a greater strategy.

 

Madoobe will one day say his best chance, after the Kenyan affirmative- action program, would have been the day the Prime Minister sat in front of him and offered him a 6-month leadership as Lower Jubba temporary governor followed by an empowered position to contribute to Jubbaland formation in a legitimate manner.

 

This is why I say after all this ulululu will be a town under government security and political control. Times have changed and Kismaayo will become the biggest highlighter of this after Mogadishu.

[Naxar Nugaaleed]

should the admin in mogadishu even hints at such a ludicrous plan as you are suggesting, it will be the end what ever little confidence the Somali people have in that admin and far from turning a page to post civil governance a return to violence that can easily escalate civil era nonsense. Lets hope that attacking jubba is not what the admin in mogadishu is wasting precious time on

[Xaaji Xunjuf]

The official government position will be the transitional Kismaayo admin "waa lagu degdegay" which the government will rectify by naming an administration for Kismaayo and the Lower Jubba after the heavy influx of Somali national troops and Sierra Leone contingent. The men in Kismaayo now do not have good grace besides the government and will be sidelined as easily as the Mogadishu warlords have been sidelined once this security arrangement has been implemented and the regional political position has been harmonized with the Somali government.

This is true this the exact plan of the Government

[Naxar Nugaaleed]

either that is the worst analysis in the history of SOL or the people in this admin are really retarded if thats the plan

[STOIC]

If whatever Gabaal said is the new unbridled ambition of the government in Mogadishu, then we must must pray both sides will come to their sense and avoid confrontations.Why beg the distance and strong power to control your backyard? The direct and straight forward question is if the folks from the PM are supporting this conference then why not engage them? Why risk alienating your own folks?

[Gabbal]

Naxar-

 

I don't think the government is sending anything which can be attacked. The scope of the security arrangement will be such that it is a deterrent force in itself. They will simply assume security control of the town with the AMISOM contingent. There will be nothing violent about this--- it is not two militias fighting. This will be an abdication of responsibilities from one power to a greater and more capable power. It will be especially designed this way.

 

This will be the last move in any case after the political and diplomatic offensive has become a success.

[Jacpher]

Gabbal used to argue around here years ago that Jubbaland will be build by Hiiraale under the guidance and the blessing of the Ethiopian troops. Now insert Madoobe and Kenyan troops in the place of Hiiraale and Ethiopia. And you have yourself an IGAD project.

 

I see some are praying to use Sierra Lione troops for a dirty clan warfare and drag the country back to '91 era. Hassan is a bit smarter than Saacid to assume the country can be brought back with a gun barrel of a foreign army.

[oba hiloowlow]

don't you guys ever get tired of this?

[STOIC]

^ I had to read twice Gabal's opinion just in case I was dreaming and in Somalia of 1991..Lets hope this government is Smarter and finds compromise as the seeds of better Somalia future,,,,,

[Gabbal]

Some of you are overly dramatic. The Somali government has been adamantly opposed to this turn of events, considers it unconstitutional, and has spoken multiple times about it as a problem that needs to be tackled. Maybe I did not do a good job explaining (I did not try to anways), but it is a sound strategy which many a smart men have thought up and significantly lowers the risk of war despite the protestations of some. Actually the Jubbaland process as it is now is a greater precursor to war than the government strategy to be pursued.

 

After the political, diplomatic, and security offensive whose gear started rolling on the first foreign trip of the PM is a success, people like Ahmed Madoobe and Yaasiin Raadeer will have gone the way of the warlords before them in the rest of the south.

 

I don't think many of you recognize the extent to which the Kismaayo situation and its power dynamics is more fluid and malleable than you believe. I also think many of you gravely underestimate the resolve of the government on this issue. The day the PM flew out, he devoted his press conference on the airport to attacking the constitutionality of Kismaayo conference.

 

P.s. To the individual who said why have I brought this here, it is not a secret.

[Somalia]

Jacpher;934672 wrote:

Gabbal used to argue around here years ago that Jubbaland will be build by Hiiraale under the guidance and the blessing of the Ethiopian troops. Now insert Madoobe and Kenyan troops in the place of Hiiraale and Ethiopia. And you have yourself an IGAD project.

 

I see some are praying to use Sierra Lione troops for a dirty clan warfare and drag the country back to '91 era. Hassan is a bit smarter than Saacid to assume the country can be brought back with a gun barrel of a foreign army.

Read this interesting thread and his comments.

 

http://www.somaliaonline.com/community/showthread.php/44664-Abdulahi-Yusuf-recognizes-the-idea-of-a-State-of-Jubbaland?p=620539&viewfull=1#post620539

[Sulleiman The Great]

Gabal if what you say was a sustainable plan , it would have tamed mugdishu, despite all pretenses somalia is a divided country, the epicenter of power in itself is someone's piece of the pie, one can day dream of there not being warlords in somalia however that will not transcend the dream world. This strategy you proposed would essentially create a situation in which one party ( those currently leading the jubaland initiative) would feel that they are being cornered, soon the legitimacy and support of the african union peace keeping troops would vanish, and they would join the ranks of ethiopia and kenya, that being enemy forces that must be rebelled at all cost (in the eyes of those fighting them). One must also remember that alshabaab has not yet been defeated, your strategy would soon see the emergence of alshabaab as they would be sought out for leverage by the weaker side ( in this case let assume the kismayo folks as the weaker side), along with that you would also see the re-emergence of tribal nationalism, something we are already seeing in the jubaland process, federal states seeing the overreaching nature of the federal government would arm themselves and clan militia from both parties emboldened by the tension would seek to find leverage wherever it may be. Mugdishu having access to military arms would attempt to crush the opposition by sheer military might, this would lead to all out war, with no party coming out as a winner. Mistrust would ensue and federal states would start dancing with the idea of secession, for the sake of somalia lets hope your wrong.

[Naxar Nugaaleed]

lets not go that route and attack each other. if this government wants to throw down the gauntlet over people trying to form a state and waste time and meager resources in fighting phantom enemies rather then deal the real ones at its doorstep and colossal work ahead of them, the only people they are a threat is to themselves.

 

Gabbal there are too problems with your view of things. One, even if the government believes that they are in the right as for as this constitutional conflict goes (which would really lead one to question their competence or that they have sinister plans up their sleeves), is this the way to deal with it? two, you keep referring to madobe (not really sure if he is and them is fighting words lol) as a warlord behind this whole process, are we too believe that the 800+ people, elders, leaders, traditional leaders are all tools of madobe?

[Gabbal]

Guys, relax. I have had my run and solicited the response I thought I would get. Disclaimer: all the details I added were jest. I wanted to let it stand for a day or two but I should end it now. I do know the PM will be harmonizing the Somali government's position re: Kismaayo with neighboring and AMISOM countries but the rest of what I said was only for soliciting entertainment oriented responses.

 

Breathe.