Current Somaliland Foreign Policy - A Rudderless Ship?

[Xaaji Xunjuf]

“Waa Inaynu Mucaarad iyo Muxaafidba Ka Middaysnaano Siyaasada Arimaha Dibada, Xukuumaddana Waxa Waajib Ku Ah..” Guddoomiye Cirro

 

Stockholm (Ramaas) Mar 25,2014 – Guddoomiyaha Golaha Wakiilada Somaliland, ahna Guddoomiyaha xisbiga Waddani Md Cabdiraxmaan Maxamed Cabdilaahi (Cirro) oo safar shaqo ku jooga Magaalada Stockholm ee caasimada dalka Sweden, ayaa kulan la yeeshay taageerayaasha xisbiga Waddani ee dalkaasi.

 

Guddoomiye Cirro oo khudbad ka jeediyay kulankaasi, ayaa bogaadiyey shacabka reer Somaliland ee ku dhaqan dalka dibadiisu sida ay heeganka ugu yihiin meel marinta qadiyada dalkooda, siiba siyaasada arimaha dibada.

 

Guddoomiye Cirro, waxa uu ku baaqay in Mucaarad iyo muxaafidba meel looga soo wada jeedsado siyaasada arimaha dibada Somaliland.

 

Sidoo kale, Mudane Cirro, waxa uu xukuumadda ugu baaqay inay mar walba shacabka u soo bandhigto talaabo kasta oo loo qaadayo horumarinta siyaasada “Xukuumadda ayay waajib ku tahay inay dadka la socodsiiso talaabo walba oo la qaadayo” ayuu yidhi Guddoomiyaha golaha Wakiilada Somaliland, waxaanu intaa ku daray “Waa inaynu Mucaarad iyo muxaafidba ka middaysnaano siyaasada arimaha dibada

[malistar2012]

Dont panic friends xaamar doesn't bite

[Xaaji Xunjuf]

What the SL foreign policy lacks is the long term vision and also the effectiveness in which it will bear fruit eventually for the SL people. But it seems that attending the first conference on Somalia was its self not a bad idea. But the talks with Somalia should have how Oodweyne describes it be one of high profile of where there would be a clear mediating team from a 3rd party. So the dialogue was a good thing but how it was formulated could have been better.

 

For as now it seems all is in the air and the international community is putting pressure on both SL and Somalia to come to the negotiation table with out a clear agenda and a time table of where these talks should end. I get the idea that the international community wants that SL and Somalia organize their own conference of talks. But even if the talks fail it will make SL case stronger and the international community particularly the Europeans and Americans. Than it would come to a second phase where they would play the arbitrators in the dialogue between Somalia and Somaliland.

 

On the other hand Somaliland needs to play another approach in Africa forge closer ties with neighboring countries create lobby groups in African countries and European find investors for the Berbera corridor project Ethiopia Somaliland railroad project. This will be costly creating lobby groups but its worth it , the SL foreign ministry should be enlarged and should consist of several departments It should be more than the 3 words the current SL minister loves to use (Mandaqada xidhiidh iyo Iskaashi) Also there should be a creativity in how to export the Somaliland livestock trade and other resources not just to arabs but to other countries Somaliland should look further east. SL should do their home work it should start creating putrescent that have a firm control over the regional financial institutions banks in where the National bank controls the hard currency of the nation.

 

Also when it comes to the resources of Somaliland and foreign companies like genel this could also play an important role when engaging with foreign nations. Somaliland should at all cost avoid Arabs when it comes to SL and Somalia , Somaliland foreign ministry needs to approach Africa.Even though their development aid and assistance is very much appriciated but SL should find a way to avoid them meddling in Somaliland and Somalia affairs.

i also agree with Mr Ciiro that the foreign policy of SL needs to be supported by both the opposition and the ruling party in this case Kulmiye.But the SL goverment Kulmiye needs to come clean and provide the real mechanism so that the Somalilanders both outside and with in the country can support it.

[NGONGE]

Looks like Baashe has borrowed Xiin's crystal ball!

 

Despite the changing political enviornment and the might of the world on Somalia's side, the Somalis themselves never seem to change their tactics when it comes to Somaliland. War don't waste your time in putting all your hopes in a Siilaanyo change of heart. He can't do it, he won't do it and, in the democratic world of SL, he will not be allowed to do it (even if that crazy hope of yours were ever to come true).

 

Siilaanyo managed to force Somalia's hand and bring them to the table of talks as an equal. But even then, Hassan Sheikh is not really the equal of Siilaanyo. For when the talks begin, Hassan Sheikh can simply protest with the words "My government insists upon the unity of Somalia" whilst Siilaanyo can counter with the morally more powerful words of "MY VOTERS will not accept anything less than secession". Still, if the "duushay" argument is make believe, why are all your necks breaking from looking up at SL so much?

[Baashi]

^That's the spirit Time will tell.

 

The SL's secession ship has been in a collision course with reality. And we will know whether it crashes or the wiseman at the helm find a way to land it safely. Don't curse me gents for reminding you the episodes of this long running saga. I am kind of worrying that Habar vs. Habar misunderstanding might get out of hand.

 

If I were in President Hassan's shoes I would find a way of giving Silanyo what he needs the most without altering the fundamentals of the social contract that made possible to end the transition.

 

We'll see how it pans out in the course of time.

[N.O.R.F]

Baashe, just from the fact that Somalia is in discussions with Somaliland, however early those discussions may be, puts Somaliland in a stronger position. When things go south Somaliland will portray itself as being reasonable enough to take part in discussions (proposed by the IC) whilst Somalia won't have a leg to stand on as they agreed to talk with Somaliland about it’s wish for secession (when they could have outright refused and maintained a posture of sovereignty with emphasis on it’s territorial integrity). When there is no agreement, and there will be no agreement, the Somali government will be asked why it didn’t just refuse to answer the door instead of answering then closing it again.

[Mintid Farayar]

Baashi;930477 wrote:

^That's the spirit :)I am kind of worrying that Habar vs. Habar misunderstanding might get out of hand.

Baashi,

 

You were doing so well till that line

 

There's a website that devotes(for the last decade) its whole editorial section to those wishes (the looming disintegration of Somaliland). It's called 'Wardheernews.com'. They would appreciate a new essay on the subject, preferably with an 'impending' timeline.....

[Baashi]

With all due respect NORF, you are assumptions on the discussions are fundamentally wrong. You are assuming the discussion is bewteen two equals. Like two independant states, correct? Well if that is the case then I am sorry to say you are ill-informed my good friend.

 

Awoowe the discussion is between Somali Federal Republic and a region of SFR wanting to secede. If you start from this point then you will understand the HUGE leverage SFR has over Somaliland. As it happens SFR controlls banking, borders, ports and even the air. Silanyo has to contend with business class who stand to lose millions. In couple of years this project will crash if you don't find a way to get out of the blid you are in boowe. Silanyo has to either find a willing power to help him turn the tide or succumb to the inevitable reality of being a region of sovereign and independant country called Somali Federal Republic.

 

The crazy option the so called nuclear option is to go war in preventing SFR to govern the country.

 

I know you are broke like me trying to make the ends meet but remember there are business class in that corner of the country who are rational and they will at the end lean on Silanyo and tell him to bargain hard with Mogadishu. If you own an airline company or shipping company or have telecommunication outfit or you are Dhiigshiil the last thing you want to do is a wave a falg no one recognized and isolate yourself to small market.

 

War jiraaba Cakaaro iman!

[Baashi]

Mintid awoowe you can always question my intentions or impugne them If Habraha are all signing in kumbaya will help Silanyo negotiate with clear eyed fashion without looking his back. Awoowe politics is a dirty business there is always folks who would wish Silanyo's downfall and this might be an openning.

[Mintid Farayar]

Baashi,

 

But that's not what you said or implied, sxb. But we do appreciate the 'clean-up' of the argument. It's one thing for politicians to jockey for position in their individual quests for the ultimate seat within the SL political system. But it's totally another for 'Habar vs. Habar misunderstanding to get out of hand' as you put it earlier.

 

Your intentions are clear. From your references to 'Dhiigshiil'(as you labelled the brand) to various other little tell-tale signs. You oppose SL, we get it. All we ask is that you desist from the revisionist history which has only led to 22 yrs of disappointment for those wishing similar outcomes.

 

As for pressure on the SL business class, you're once again counting your chickens before they're hatched. SL commerce has faced this same quandary for the last 22 yrs and still managed to grow and maintain the largest business entities(with the exception of the defunct Barakaat) in the former Somalia - business conglomerates that tend to dominate not only in SL but in significant portions of Southern Somalia. Nothing has changed. I fear you've misread a symbolic recognition from Washington(given as a means for Washington to implement its next phase in the war on Al Shabaab) as a real, tangible power-consolidation towards Mogadishu. You're dead wrong on that account. For if Mogadishu was so dominant currently in its ability to exercise power, you wouldn't be attempting to oppose it with the Jubbaland project. But you know that to be far from the reality, hence the contradiction in your analysis.

 

Alas, this phase of the game is only just beginning. Once again, it's a little too early for the chicken-counting...

[Baashi]

^ That's the spirit. The linebacker goes for a tackle again Awoowe if you are telling us that there is no clannish partisanship within Habraha we'll give you the benefit of the doubt and verify if that is the case I have friends from that neck of the wood here and they say blessed his heart when they read spirited defense you put up on this board

 

Awoowe folks from that neck of the wood call him Dhiigshiil. It's not a deragatory name and its his real nickname. But I see your gymnastics as a distraction from the issue at hand.

 

As to challenging government on Jubba bordering contradiction oh boy! bless your heart as one of my friend fond of saying War heedhe Jubba supporters are loyal citizens of the SFR. They want to implement a federal provision in the draft constitution for legitimate reasons.

 

You are being disingenuous in equating the two issues. There is no contradiction in supporting the implementation of SFR constitution and opposing dismembering Somalia on now defunct colonial legacy grounds

[NGONGE]

Baashe,

 

This is exactly why the talks are taking place and why the International Community proposed, encouraged and supported such talks. You (as in any Federal Government supporting Somali) believe that SL is a region of Somalia and we (Somalilanders) don't. The talks are about clarifying our future relationship. It is very clear from the wording for these talks that a dialogue is going to take place between the two sides. If they're not equal, why then are they talking? Mogadishu can simply dictate to its regions (like it's trying and failing to do in Kismaayo).

 

The question is not about the talks themsevles but about what happens when they fail (as they're likley to do). What could the Somali government do when it already trapped itself by agreeing to the IC being an observer to these talks? If it goes to war, it loses. If it tries the "cunaqabateen", it loses again. SL is a problem bigger than Kismaayo, saaxib.

[Mintid Farayar]

Baashi;930521 wrote:

^

That's the spirit. The linebacker goes for a tackle again

Awoowe if you are telling us that there is no clannish partisanship within Habraha we'll give you the benefit of the doubt and verify if that is the case

I have friends from that neck of the wood here and they say blessed his heart when they read spirited defense you put up on this board

 

Awoowe folks from that neck of the wood call him Dhiigshiil. It's not a deragatory name and its his real nickname. But I see your gymnastics as a distraction from the issue at hand.

 

As to challenging government on Jubba bordering contradiction oh boy! bless your heart as one of my friend fond of saying

War heedhe

Jubba supporters are loyal citizens of the SFR. They want to implement a federal provision in the draft constitution for legitimate reasons.

 

You are being disingenuous in equating the two issues. There is no contradiction in supporting the implementation of SFR constitution and opposing dismembering Somalia on now defunct colonial legacy grounds

You sound like the old Southern bigot(U.S.-based analogy, for the non-N.American crowd) who regularly clings to the disclaimer that he has lots of 'Black' friends Who you're sitting with or used to sit with is irrelevant to the argument.

 

My argument is not based on a similarity between SL and the 'yet to even get-off the ground' Jubba project. I see no similarity nor equality between the two. I was pointing out your attempts to present an image of a resurgent, re-emerging central power in Somalia to which SL would be bound to legally, financially, etc. I simply pointed out that if you truly believed that, you wouldn't attempt to challenge it through the Jubba project which Mogadishu explicitly opposed from the beginning. Do you see the contradiction?

[Tallaabo]

Baashi;930503 wrote:

With all due respect NORF, you are assumptions on the discussions are fundamentally wrong. You are assuming the discussion is bewteen two equals. Like two independant states, correct? Well if that is the case then I am sorry to say you are ill-informed my good friend.

 

Awoowe the discussion is between Somali Federal Republic and a region of SFR wanting to secede. If you start from this point then you will understand the HUGE leverage SFR has over Somaliland. As it happens

SFR controlls banking, borders, ports and even the air

. Silanyo has to contend with business class who stand to lose millions. In couple of years this project will crash if you don't find a way to get out of the blid you are in boowe. Silanyo has to either find a willing power to help him turn the tide or succumb to the inevitable reality of being a region of sovereign and independant country called Somali Federal Republic.

 

The crazy option the so called nuclear option is to go war in preventing SFR to govern the country.

 

I know you are broke like me trying to make the ends meet but remember there are business class in that corner of the country who are rational and they will at the end lean on Silanyo and tell him to bargain hard with Mogadishu. If you own an airline company or shipping company or have telecommunication outfit or you are Dhiigshiil the last thing you want to do is a wave a falg no one recognized and isolate yourself to small market.

 

War jiraaba Cakaaro iman!

No they don't, where did you get that ludicrous idea?

[Baashi]

^ I got it from the fact that Somalia is an independent state and has the right to control its domain. Granted the SFR is weak and has no capacity to exercise its right today. But make no mistake SFR could demand (in due time) others to respect its territorial integrity and sovereignty. Do you understand what that means to secessionists? I guess not

 

Ngone awoowe I am not saying the two issues are identical or even similar. Not at all. Jubba is a different animal altogether. Jubba folks are challenging the government policy toward federalism. They acknowledge the legitimacy of the state and its leaders but they disagree the politics and the execustion the current adminstration is pursuing. Whereas the SL issue is about selling the social contract folks in the South agreed to the SL administration. Make no mistake federalism gives everything they want short of outright secession. Different animal altogether.

 

What you and I believe do not matter. What matters the most is whether Somalia is a recognized state. The fact is it is a recognized state with huge internal challenges. The Somaliland issue is one of these challenges leadership in Mogadishu have to contend with. If the talks fail (Allah forbid) then it will be a reckoning day for SL. It will be unrecognized fiefdom wanting to secede going rogue. I don't know how things will pan out but all the signs indicate that SL is in a bind. We'll see.

 

Mintod boowe you are talking the victim mentality to a different level. Your analogy is not appropriate to the discussion we're having here The fact that your kin sees a different and better outcome for SL residents if they bargain with Mogadishu is very telling and relevant to this discussion. What that means is there are Duriyada folks who all along wanted a rational and consistent policy toward re-integration with the rest of Somalia. Reasonable folks who knew all along that reality on the ground in the enclave and the status of the state is an obstacle to wey duushay make belief world.

 

Again Wax la waayey geeloow ninkii waalan baw duda!