Current Somaliland Foreign Policy - A Rudderless Ship?

[NGONGE]

Guru,

 

I can get excited with the Kulmiye government when something solid actually takes place. In the case here and absent any clear charge, I am simply amused by your strong words and opposition!

 

What exactly is the problem? The president was clear in his reply. I mean it's not as if the invitation came yesterday and he had to fly out today. So if there was anything about the inclusion of Somalia in the trip, he probably heard about it at the same time we all did (through the Somali media). His reply as he went on this trip as reasonable as one would expect.

 

Mintid,

Waa guddigaan idin sheegay. This is how Siilaanyo will either rise or fall.

[Mintid Farayar]

Ngonge,

Here's a piece from one of the opposition websites:

________________________________________

 

 

 

Somaliland Under Intense Pressure Not To Boycott London Conference

 

Writen by Qaran News | Published: Mar 24th, 2013 at 02:08 PM

 

 

Hargeisa(Qarannews):- Somaliland is coming under intense pressure not to boycott the London conference on Somalia, according to a senior source within the administration of President Ahmed Mohamed Mohamud “Silaanyo”.

 

The source confirms that since President Silaanyo’s return from the visit to Turkey and his announcement that Somaliland will not attend the London conference on Somalia, the government has come under intense internation pressure not to boycott the meeting.

 

According to the senior source within the administration, both the United Kingdom and the United States of America have made it known that Somaliland is expected to attend the conference on Somalia, which is to be chaired by the head of the provisional government in Mogadishu Hassan Sheikh Mohamed.

 

The source also states that the sudden visit of President Silaanyo to the UAE is to hear proposals from the Emirati government which would enable Somaliland to attend the London conference.

 

Ever since Somaliland began direct talks with the various entities concocted in Mogadishu, a stark departure from all previous Somaliland administrations since 1991, the administration of President Silaanyo have been trying to manage events as they spiral out of their control.

 

Whilst the United Kingdom government and the provisional administration in Mogadishu hold talks in that city to set the agenda for the London conference, the administration of President Silaanyo is trying to cope with pressure from the UN, the Gulf, EU and many other world bodies to attend the London conference on Somalia, not as a sovereign and de-facto state, but as one of many factions of the defunct “Somali Republic”.

 

All in all, the source confirms that there had been severe miscalculations in starting direct talks with all the various administration from Mogadishu, because no one in the administration of President Silaanyo asked the question “Where is this heading?”, and now according to the senior source, it is clear where the matter is heading, an administration too weak and incompetent to hold their position, a public unwilling to countenance another union and an international community using whatever means necessary to “glue” the defunct “Somali Republic” back together again.

 

The sources states that this a recipe for another military conflict, unless the administration clarifies its positions, respects the wishes of the people of Somaliland and re-calibrates its strategy and policies.

 

Qarannews

[Mintid Farayar]

Ngonge,

 

To sum up the sentiment, the political opposition makes the case of asking what tangible advantages and positive results were gained from pursuing this divergence from previous SL policy (when it comes to inclusion in Southern politics).

 

The current administration has yet to provide a compelling answer to that question.

[NGONGE]

^^ Dee naga daa, Mintid. The opposition can not have it both ways. They were all part of the process that agreed to this change of policy (Siilaanyo's guddi system that I've been mentioning forever). They actually don't have a leg to stand on here.

 

As for the issue itself, do you believe there would have been no pressure put on SL even if it were to carry on with its former policy? The political landscape has changed in Somalia and pressure would have been forthcoming regardless of the SL policy of the time. However, the fact that SL signed up for the talks gives it a way out of all this nonsense whenever any pressure is put its way.

 

I see a clear and logical policy here. Of course, one can argue if it will prove fruitful or not. However, to argue that it's rudderless or unplanned is rubbish, saaxib. Worse still, the article talks about military conflict, as if the old position would have not led to the same end sooner or later. Naga daaya dee.

 

The SL opposition has to come out openly and demand that this policy be revoked instead of this rubbish in their media and these cowardly hints from "sources" within the government.

[Mintid Farayar]

I agree with your observation of the 'opposition' parties. Hence, why I paint gov't and opposition under the same brushstroke in my previous postings.

 

But you have yet to tell me of what progress the change of policy achieved?

We went from Asst.Sec of State for Africa(where policy is actually formulated for Somalis within the U.S. foreign portfolio) and UK Parliamentary delegations visiting Hargeisa on a regular basis, a lively debate between the Defense and State Dept on whether to recognize SL to this Mogadishu-style constant air travel from one foreign capital to another foreign capital.

 

Where is the beef??

[NGONGE]

^^ The progress was the idea of the talks. Though, like you, I have been wondering what happens next and if this government has any time frame for these talks. Having said that, the travel issue is not a problem unless it has a connection with the talks (after all, most of the trips resulted in deals for development, digging of wells or increased aid).

 

At any rate, I don't believe these talks will be much of a success or that SL will get its way there. Nevertheless, I still think that if the Kulmiye government play their cards right even the failure of the talks will still strengthen our position.

[Mintid Farayar]

I hope for all our sakes that you're correct. In the meantime, put me in the loyal skeptic camp. I'm very wary of the Khaleeji element in the talks, knowing their opposition to 'Ardul Somaal' and the considerable purse they wield when they have an agenda in mind....

[Xaaji Xunjuf]

^^ I have said that before Arabs should not meddle in the talks between Somalia and Somaliland any other African country i would welcome or even the Europeans since they have no motives and are neutral.

[Haatu]

A sinking ship would've been more apt.

[NGONGE]

Mintid Farayar;930093 wrote:

I hope for all our sakes that you're correct. In the meantime, put me in the loyal skeptic camp. I'm very wary of the Khaleeji element in the talks, knowing their opposition to 'Ardul Somaal' and the considerable purse they wield when they have an agenda in mind....

As am I, saaxib. However, one can not convince anyone without engaging with them first. At least in this case, Somaliland can speak directly to these Arabs and try to sell them it's own vision and argument. After all, the UAE & Qatar have been in a similar place back when the British left them and agreed at the time to go their seperate ways (even though they share a language, culture, etc, etc, etc). The question here is; do Siilaanyo, his FM and tall Hirsi know any of this?

[AfricaOwn]

There has been a lot of speculation about these talks. This administration has not been the most open and transparent. It's really hard to talk about something with little information to go by.

[Ibtisam]

Maxa la isla dhaba yaacaya- really do they need THAT many people to attend a meeting which they dont know the agenda for? I think the badow in them thought we cant waste all these seats on the plane- lets fill it up.

 

All these jetting about with half of the ministers is a joke- they are all needed in their respective posts to do some REAL work. Quit it already with these pointless visits.

 

In their absence the UN is here explaining and promoting their new aid structure, which effectively would mean processing everything through xamar, then Kenya, adding an extra layer but effectively also taking a few steps back from Somaliland.

 

Somaliland and Somalilanders really need to get beyond this whole "the president went to so and so, and was welcome nicely with red carpet and met with a delegation"

[Mintid Farayar]

Thank you, Ibtisam! A simplistic approach thus far on the part of our elites (looking from the outside in)....

[Baashi]

Mintid & Oodweyne

 

Awoowe in few months we will know if Silanyo has what it takes to be a leader. The goings is getting tough and tough will only get going

 

Somalia’s territorial integrity is untouchable. There is no chance to alter that reality. Silanyo gets it. Hargeisa predicament is unique and Silanyo needs a leeway to steer SL ship to a safe landing. Hassan, Farole and IC get it and they are more willing to accommodate him up to a point.

 

The biggest problem is within Habraha. Here is where the rubber meets the road as they here in the states. Remember ’93-94 civil wars in SL? What was it about again!!! Tuur, Qeybe, Kalluun and et al argued all along that durriyada should cut a favorable deal with Mogadishu. We all know what happen to them!!!

 

Today we have HJ man on the helm who adopted previous admins policy of prosecuting anyone who veered from the secession line. The kin of the persecuted big shots tolerated the humiliation because they bought the secession idea in its totality. Idinku lama xaali kadhaan kiina isku dayana dee xabsigaa yaqaan bey shalay joogtay. Maantana waxa weeye ilma adeerayaaloow inna keena aan wallaalahayo wax la qaybsanee oo waliba ninka aan la kalaamayo ma aha nimankii aan is haynay..

 

Silanyo gets the task to report to Mogadishu or risk absolute and irreversible isolation coupled with loss of clout. Knowing the political trajectory of the world Habraha inhabit, I feel nothing but sympathy for Silanyo. This is not something he chose to do or wanted to do. Events of the region, the presence of AS in his fiefdom, positive changes in Mogadishu and Obama admin’s clear and unequivocal support of Somalia’s territorial integrity and sovereignty leaves Silanyo no choice but to play qallanjada iyo wiilka in his hand in this every changing dabakaerri turub

 

As to folks who are still dreaming for dismembering Somalia into what region has been subjugated by what European colonial power in the heydays of scramble for Africa smell the coffee and open your eyes

 

Mintid and Oodweyne please don’t point finger at Silanyo. He didn’t make Obama and Cameron abandon SL project. He didn’t make Turkey spend its political capital on Somalia and campaign for its comeback. It just so happened that events beyond his meager influence and clout overtook his plans for Durriyada

 

Wax la waayey geeloow ninkii waalan baw dudda,!

 

PS. Tell Silanyo I defended him against extremists flexing their muscles in internet xaafado who believed in Ngonge’s make belief world of wey duushay.

[Mintid Farayar]

Ku yaro noqo, sxb. Qaybe, you said? How does he play a role in 'Habraha', as you put it?

 

As for the 93-94 family squabble, you got that wrong as well. The underlying cause was a disagreement over allocation of seats in a political construct that was a left-over from the SNM days. The division worked during war time, but certain constituencies felt it was disadvantageous in peace time. Tuur, Kalluun, and co. painted this disagreement in the same disingenuous light you're now trying to sell here in order to gain positions in a soon-to-fail Aideed gov't. This is attested to by their total presence in Mogadishu at the time rather than with their subclan which controlled significant parts of certain regions at the time. The other side within SL used Tuur's empty declarations of Federalism to demonize their opponents on the battle front as Somaliland-diids. This added greater confusion to what the disagreement was about(in particular for an information-starved diaspora). But as they say, all is fair in love and war...

 

Egal, along with others, put an end to this dilemna with a reorientation of political distribution by the one-man, one vote system you see today. This forced coalition-building and accomodational politics on any political aspirant. It stabilized the system. So, if we're to retell history, let's at least do it accurately!

 

In fairness, there is some truth(though not completely accurate) to your depiction of the direction of certain international winds but I believe this too will pass. For we all know Southern political elites and their inability to solve Somalia's problems. Like the story about Doqonkii lumey oo markii laheley yidhi, maxaad la sacab tumeysaan, barito ba waan lumi

 

So don't count the chickens yet....