Ethiopia Somalia relations worsen, as Ethiopia threatens to withdraw its troops from Somalia.

Mintid Farayar · March 19, 2013

Precisely Oodka! This is the 'diplomatic pressure' the Hassan Sheikh gov't possesses that I've alluded to in many previous posts.

Xiin,

Oodka knows where my assertions come from. That's a little secret between him and I. But, please, do carry on

xiinfaniin · March 19, 2013

^^LOL

Ok. But you do know, at least one hopes so, that internet analysis are always tramped by the reality on the ground. And on that account, you come short by at least a mile...

xiinfaniin · March 19, 2013

Somali Islamists eye possible Ethiopia pull out

AFP

Tuesday, March 19, 2013

Somalia's Al-Qaeda linked insurgents, on the back foot after months of losses, are eyeing a potential withdrawal of arch-foe Ethiopia in the volatile southwest, raising security and humanitarian concerns.

Heavily armed Shebab fighters swept into the town of Hudur, capital of Bakool region, just hours after Ethiopia's surprise withdrawal from the town on Sunday.

Hot on the heels of the Ethiopians -- the strongest military power in the southwest region ever since their November 2011 invasion -- fled allied Somali militia forces and a column of some 2,000 terrified civilians.

Security sources say the withdrawal from Hudur could signal a wider pull out of Ethiopian forces including from the key city of Baidoa, warning that if this happens, the 17,000-strong African Union mission (AMISOM) would be hugely overstretched.

"Everything suggests Ethiopia is determined to withdraw from Baidoa" in coming days, a security source told AFP.

Ethiopia, which has repeatedly said it wishes to withdraw, is reportedly frustrated that its requests for AMISOM troops to take over its positions have been ignored.

"The Ethiopians have been talking for quite a while of how much they want to leave...so far it was seen more as a posture," said a source close to AMISOM, adding they were frustrated at how much the military operation was costing.

Whether Ethiopia continues to withdraw also depends on the reaction of the international community and whether the Shebab reoccupy the areas they pull out from, the source added.

The withdrawal from Hudur "is a reminder that what they do is of strategic importance and that the Shebab is not defeated," the source added.

Relations between Addis Ababa and the Somali government are also tense, with a parliamentary delegation travelling to Baidoa on Sunday in a bid to persuade Ethiopia not to leave, a humanitarian source there said.

Addis Ababa -- long seen as a traditional enemy of Somalia -- is a controversial presence in Somalia. Ethiopia entered Somalia in a 2006 US-backed invasion, but was driven out three years later by a bitter insurgency.

-- Major boost to Shebab morale ---

But while Shebab forces are weak and unable to hold out against the heavy weaponry of Ethiopia or AMISOM troops, Hudur's capture marked a sharp turnaround and a major boost to their morale.

Sources say that while their return to Hudur was expected, the speed with which they retook the town took many by surprise.

"If Al-Shebab reoccupy all the places Ethiopia withdraws from, it would change things," the AMISOM source said, adding that Hudur's rapid capture "clearly shows that holding ground is not enough to win over an insurgency."

AMISOM would struggle at its current capacity to take over Ethiopian positions, while Somali troops who worked closely with Ethiopian troops would not necessarily cooperate so well with other forces, sources said.

Hudur's capture, the Shebab's most important territorial victory for over a year, prompted jubilant celebrations amongst the Islamists, who vowed to "wage jihad" until total victory in messages posted on its Twitter account.

Top Shebab military commander Mukhtar Robow led the celebrations in the town.

So far, Hudur is the only major town Ethiopians have pulled out of, but with troops packing kit in Baidoa in apparent preparation to leave, many are worried as to the impact of a retreat.

Security sources say several thousand Ethiopian troops have dominated southwestern Somalia since their 2011 assault on Shebab bases in November 2011, shortly after Kenyan forces invaded Somalia from the far south.

Kenyan troops have since joined AMISOM. Ethiopian forces have remained separate, although they collaborate with the mission.

While AMISOM already have a significant force in Baidoa, reinforcements are battling to open up the final 50 kilometre (30 mile) stretch of road connecting the city with Mogadishu, some 250 kilometres (155 miles) to the southeast.

But given the large amount of Ethiopia's heavy equipment and weaponry based in Baidoa, troops would be unlikely to be able to stage a rapid pullout as they did in Hudur.

"The behaviour of the Ethiopians is ambiguous," another security source said, asking whether they were "really leaving or pretending?"

xiinfaniin · March 19, 2013

Oodweyne read the AFP piece ....

I made an effort to inform you waryaa

Mintid Farayar · March 19, 2013

Speaking of barking at the peripheries According to the AFP narrative, Ethiopia has desperately wanted to leave for a while but did not have a responsible military authority to hand off to. Now the question answered by our previous postings is why Ethiopia is in such a hurry to leave. Hence, the financial equation of maintaining troops with a shrinking budget!

It gets tiring 'educating' pirates......

xiinfaniin · March 19, 2013

Oodweyne, waxaad tahay nin wax xeerinaya . Oday dhaqameed baa tahay ninyahow. Mintid dharkii intii badnaa waa horuu xooray , macawista ku hartay inaan anigu ka furto igama suurowdo weeye hadalkaagu

Hats off to our Oodweyne

Mintid Farayar · March 19, 2013

Oodka, sxb, don't go too far

Mintid Farayar · March 19, 2013

Oodka,

Hassan Sheikh has quite a few aces up his sleeve that the pirates are still unaware of.

That's why it's best for us to sit this one out (in terms of currently attending the London Conference). Let's just say, currently, the stars are well alligned for him He's got some adept foreign and Somali advisors that are proving quite skilled at playing the Western need for the Somali problem to be resolved in order to move on to bigger agendas in the region.

I won't go further than that given your ability to read between the lines.... And not wanting to further educate our 'in-house pirates'

Che -Guevara · March 19, 2013

Much ado about nothing.

Che -Guevara · March 19, 2013

Give it few weeks, the more things change in Somalia, the more it stays the same. The only thing they will get Ethios packing is serious unrest in their country.

Mintid Farayar · March 19, 2013

It's financial, Che. Read the AFP article Xiin posted (which coincidentally contradicts the points he's arguing..LOL).

The article refers to the disbelieve among AMISOM & the IC that the Ethiopians are actually withdrawing. So whether the Ethiopians are truly withdrawing or simply bluffing to get the attention of the IC/West, the issue comes down to funds!

Quotes from the article:

"The Ethiopians have been talking for quite a while of how much they want to leave...so far it was seen more as a posture," said a source close to AMISOM, adding they were frustrated at how much the military operation was costing.

I think poor Xiin didn't even read his own article when arguing against the 'financial' angle.

Mintid Farayar · March 21, 2013

Mintid Farayar;928369 wrote:

Not correct. The Ethiopians refused to come under the AMISOM umbrella to maintain their strategic maneuverability. The Kenyans initially stayed out but when the indigenous funds ran dry, they were forced to formally join the AMISOM umbrella in order to access the AMISOM financial pipeline (which is considerable by African standards - $1500 per soldier under the current fiscal year).

It's all about the 'funds' when it comes to the sustainability of these African militaries within Somalia. Below, you have the Kenyans making further plays after nominally joining AMISOM.

_________________________________________________

Nairobi wants UN to pay for intervention in Somalia

1 March 2013

ION

The Kenyan government has asked the African Union (AU) to submit to the United Nations the bill for its contribution to the military intervention in Somalia that got underway in October 2011. Nairobi would like to be repaid for its role in the AfricanUnion Mission in Somalia (AMISOM), and is also asking the UN to spend some $10 million on the creation of a maritime force for AMISOM. The money would go directly to Kenya, which is the only African nation with a naval fleet in Somalian waters. According to a Kenya Defence Force (KDF) headquarters source in Nairobi, the military would also like the UN to invest in the training of Somalian soldiers. The KDF is of the view that having a Somalian government force capable of resisting Al Shabaab Islamist rebels is a pre-condition of the Kenyan military contingent being able to return home by the end of this year.

The KDF also thinks it has the necessary personnel to train the Somalian soldiers, making it just a question of the UN coming up with the funding. To date there has been no response to the Kenyan demands from New York.

Mintid Farayar · March 21, 2013

Meanwhile, the Ethiopian continue to play out their bluff/withdrawal for the same financial reasons.

______________________________________________________

AU Somali force readies for possible Ethiopia pullout

21 March 2013

Agence France Presse

Copyright Agence France-Presse, 2013 All reproduction and presentation rights reserved.

African Union forces battling Islamist insurgents in Somalia are preparing troops to take over should Ethiopia withdraw more soldiers from the region, their commander said Thursday.

"We have in place contingent measures to ensure that areas in Bay and Bakool...remain stable and secure in the event of further Ethiopian troop withdrawals," said Andrew Gutti, commander of African Union Mission for Somalia (AMISOM), referring to southwest Somali regions currently controlled by Ethiopia.

Ethiopian troops, the strongest military power in Somalia's southwest ever since their November 2011 invasion, pulled out of the town of Hudur on Sunday, the capital of Bakool region.

Hours later, Somalia's Al-Qaeda-linked Shebab swept into the town, their most important territorial victory for over a year.

The capture prompted jubilant celebrations, which included the beheading of an influential cleric in the town.

Despite a string of losses in recent months, the Shebab remain a potent threat, still controlling rural areas as well as carrying out guerrilla attacks in areas apparently under government control.

Somali militia forces allied to the Ethiopians, as well as a column of some 2,000 terrified civilians, fled shortly after the Ethiopian pullout.

Security sources say the withdrawal from Hudur could signal a wider pullout of Ethiopian forces including from the key city of Baidoa, warning that if this happens, the 17,000-strong AMISOM would be hugely overstretched.

AMISOM, which fights alongside Somali government forces, "is closely monitoring developments following the withdrawal of Ethiopian troops from Hudur," the force said in a statement.

"We are conducting a review of our troop deployments...and remain confident that there will be sufficient coverage," Gutti added.

Security sources say that AMISOM would struggle at its current capacity to take over Ethiopian positions, while Somali troops who have worked closely with Ethiopian troops might not necessarily cooperate so well with other forces.

So far, Hudur is the only major town Ethiopians have pulled out of, but troops are also packing kit in Baidoa in apparent preparation to leave.

Ethiopian troops entered Somalia in late 2011 to attack Shebab bases, shortly after Kenyan troops invaded Somalia from the far south.

While Kenyan troops have since joined AMISOM, Ethiopia remained separate.

Xaaji Xunjuf · March 21, 2013

AU Somali force readies for possible Ethiopia pullout

Thursday, March 21, 2013