Ethiopia Somalia relations worsen, as Ethiopia threatens to withdraw its troops from Somalia.

[Xaaji Xunjuf]

War Deg Deg ah— Dowlada Federaalka iyo Itoobiya oo khilaaf soo kala dhex galey, Baydhabo oo khatar soo wajahdey

Warar rasmi ah oo Warbaahinta Puntlandi heleen ayaa sheegeysa in ciidamada Itoobiya ee Jooga gobolada Bay, Bakool iyo hiiraan ay qarka u saaran yihiin iney isaga baxaan aagagaas ka dib markii khilaaf xoogan soo kala dhex galay Itoobiya iyo dowlada Federaalka.

Wararku waxay sheegayaan in khilaafku uu bilowdey labo bilood ka hor hadana uu marayo meeshii ugu xumeyd, ka dib markii ay dhinaca Itoobiya sheegeen in dowlada Federaalka Soomaaliya ay ka baxdey balamo dhowra oo ay Itoobiya la gashay dowladii ka horeysey ee KMG, Itoobiya waxay kaloo Dowlada Federaalka ku eedeysey masuul xumo iyo u jilicsanaan dhinaca Al-shabaab ah.

Khilaafkaan ayaa la sheegey inuu ka bilowdey Isbadalka ay Dowlada Federaalku ku sameeyeen Maamulada Gobolada Hiiraan iyo Baydhabo iyadoo dhinaca Itoobiya ay shegeen in Maamuladaan cusubi ay saaxiib la yihiin al-shabaab.

Khilaafka waxaa kaloo sii xoojiyey Faragalinta ay Dowlada Federaalku ku sameysey Maamulka loo sameynayo Jubooyinka iyo Gedo, tasoo Itoobiya ay sheegtey in dowlada federaalku adeegsatey Al-shabaab si aan Goboladaas maamul looga sameyn oo ay u fududeeyeen in ciidan ka tagay Gedo ay si dhib yar ku tagaan Kismaayo, waxayna tusaale usoo qaateen Ciidamadii Gedo ka xoreyn lahaa al-shabaab oo dowlada federaalku ku amartay iney Kismaayo aadaan.

Waxaa kaloo khilaafku cirka isku taagey ka dib markii ay dowlada Federaalku sheegeen in hubkii ku xereysnaa Villa soomaaliya la xadey, hubkaasoo looga shaki qabo in Al-shabaab loo gacan galiyey, waxaa kaloo xusid mudan in Villa soomaaliya tahay meesha ugu amaanka badan Muqdisho, oo la baaro qof walba oo soo galaya ama baxaya xitaa haduu wato Irbad la arko.

Khilaafkaan ayaa la sheegey inuu salka ku hayo sababta ay Ciidamada Itoobiya ugasoo baxeen Magaalada xudur, ka dibna ay si fudud al-shabaab kula wareegeen, Baydhabo iyo Baladweyne ayaa iyana laga cabsi qabaa inay Ciidamada Itoobiya isaga baxaan.

Hadii ay dhacdo in Ciidamada Itoobiya ay dib ugurasho sameeyaan waxay carqabad xoogan ku noqonaysaa amaanka guud ahaan koonfurta Soomaaliya.

[Xaaji Xunjuf]

If Ethiopia really wants to withdraw its troops Hassan culsow and co should appeal to the African Union and the EU to fund more African troops probably from Nigeria or sierra leone to replace the Ethiopians in bay bakool and Hiiraan. But they need to do it now before its to lat because the Ethiopians are unpredictable.

[Somalia]

Amazing.

[Naxar Nugaaleed]

Xaaji you posted all of that and some how side stepped the issue. It's not about wither the Ethiopians withdraw or not but that actions taken by this administration paint a clear picture of intention to undermine security in the southern regions: appointment of pro shabab admins, lose of weopon, relocating much needed troops from the shabab front to a secured region. if these are true, the Ethiopian insinuation logical adds up.

[xiinfaniin]

^^Clearly the administration lost sight of the true target, focused on the wrong priorities and stumbled. But I am sure the government will regroup, and steer clear from the political activism that tainted it with respect to federalism, and stick with president's number one priority;security, security, and security

[Mintid Farayar]

Oodka,

 

Don't believe the hype. Just the usual spin from certain corners to muddy the waters. The issue is not due to misunderstandings or political conflict between Mog and Addis, but rather of a 'financial' nature when it comes to the Ethiopian state coffers. The Ethiopian military no longer has the carte blanche(in terms of substantial financing) that previously existed from the U.S. Pentagon. And maintaining standing armies in far-flung places is an expensive proposition as you're well aware!

 

The American sequestration process is having its casualties all across the globe. And you can take that to the bank

[Naxar Nugaaleed]

Wrong time to make enemies, the Ethiopians are right, these regions can not be administered with their help.

[Mintid Farayar]

Oodka,

 

Since Johnny Carson took the helm re:the Africa portfolio, both the U.S. and U.K. decided to eliminate the Ethiopian and Kenyan 'translations/translaters' when it comes to the Somali security/counter-terrorism issue. The realization was made that these two countries(Kenya&Ethiopia) had different national interests coloring a far bigger Anglo/American global agenda. The demise of the IC darling, Meles Zenawi, also had a debilitating effect on Ethiopian influence on American policy-making in the region.

[Naxar Nugaaleed]

And we know that this is do Washington cut backs how? Isn't this an African Union mission? If the Ethios are leaving for financial would the others leave too?

[Mintid Farayar]

Oodweyne;928356 wrote:

^^^Good point and it make sense as to why Obama administration have decided to engage directly the government of Somalia instead of going through the previous channel such as Ethiopia and Kenya as the case was during the Dubya and Cheney Neo-Con administration.

Precisely, Oodka! You hit the nail right on the head. Many on this Forum will get lost in the details and nuances of what's happening in the region on the geopolitical level but you always come through;) That's why you have Johnny Carson's predecessor, Jendayi Frazer, barking from the sidelines criticizing current U.S. policy re:the region. She was the one who institutionalized the past U.S. tendency to work through their Ethiopian and Kenyan partners in the region.

 

Read her latest piece from a few days ago articulating her opposition to current U.S. policy in the region.....

________________________________________________________

 

 

 

 

Former U.S. Assistant Secretary of State Jendayi Frazer says the ICC is a Kangaroo Court and the United States must work with Uhuru Kenyatta and William Ruto

775 Views

March 17, 2013

“Innocent until proven guilty” is a defining principle of all respected legal systems, including that of the United States. Presumption of innocence allows an individual to run, win and hold public office until they are found to be anything other than innocent.

 

The High Court of Kenya upheld exactly this principle with its ruling on February 15 clearing the way for Uhuru Kenyatta to run for President in Kenya’s March 4 election.

It ruled that Kenyatta’s presidential bid could go forward because the High Court has no jurisdiction to determine qualifications of a person who has been duly nominated to run for president; the Rome Statue has no provision for the International Criminal Court (ICC) to bar candidates; and importantly under Article 50 of the Kenyan Constitution, there is a presumption of innocence until the contrary is proved which falls under the category of fundamental rights and freedoms.

Yet on the eve of the election, several Western countries were seen as using the ICC indictment to pre-emptively “try and convict” Uhuru Kenyatta in the court of public opinion, presumably to tank his electoral prospects.

The US assistant secretary’s statement that “choices have consequences” went well beyond President Obama’s welcomed video message to Kenyans released only days before calling for a free, fair and peaceful election. In effect, the warning contradicted President Obama’s appropriate statement that “the choice of who will lead Kenya is up to the Kenyan people. The United States does not endorse any candidate for office.”

Let me be equally clear: I have no preference for whom Kenyans elected as their next president. My concern is with the credibility and effectiveness of US policy in Africa. I remain troubled by the not so subtle attempt to use the ICC politically to essentially threaten Kenyans about whom to vote for in their presidential elections.

To base US foreign policy on the ICC is especially problematic since the US is not a signatory to the Rome Statute which established the International Criminal Court.

Moreover, the ICC’s very legitimacy has been fundamentally compromised by its first Prosecutor, Luis Moreno Ocampo, only finding cases of atrocities and crimes against humanity in Africa.

At the same time, the West’s often quiet role but strong political influence on who the court targets for indictment tarnishes the court as a tool of geopolitical influence, not balanced global justice.

A review of ICC cases also reveals that some African officials have instrumentally cooperated with the Prosecutor to indict their political opponents, further diminishing the impartiality of the Court.

Add to this the length of trials, with only one conviction in 10 years, and the treatment of those indicted as guilty before they can prove their innocence, and the ICC begins to look like an organisation that is behaving with impunity in international affairs, rather than a court that is respectful of victims or the principle of presumption of innocence.

The ICC indeed has fallen far from the high ideals of global justice and accountability that inspired its creation.

The Kenyan ICC experience is instructive. The post-election violence in 2007-2008 led to an estimated 1,100 deaths and more than 600,000 displaced. I witnessed the incredible suffering of the victims across the country when I came to Kenya in January 2008 to urge President Mwai Kibaki and then ODM challenger Raila Odinga to work together to end the violence.

It is right and necessary that those responsible for the violence are held accountable. Yet, the ICC, an organisation founded to bring those accused of the most heinous of crimes to account, was initially used (unsuccessfully) as political leverage to get Kenya’s Parliament to set up a domestic special tribunal to address the post-election violence.

When the National Assembly failed to act, the ICC Prosecutor in 2010 brought charges against six high profile Kenyans, but victims of post-election violence are no closer to realising justice. Instead, the ICC was politicised when used to warn Kenyans about whom to vote for in their 2013 elections.

Some Kenyans welcome ICC indictments against high level officials as a way to end a culture of impunity, but condemning a person based on their position, rather than a specific and proven case, is vigilantism not justice.

The case alleged against Uhuru Kenyatta, for example, is fast crumbling with the new Prosecutor Fatou Bensouda withdrawing charges against his co-defendant Francis Muthaura.

It is therefore especially reckless for the United States to tie its foreign policy towards Kenya on an ICC case against the President-elect that is unproven and based on hearsay, with the alleged sole eyewitness, on whom the case rested, now dropped by the Prosecutor for unreliability.

The US would be more effective engaging directly with Kenyatta than creating unnecessary and unsustainable diplomatic distance, especially given the new geo-strategic realities that come with growing BRIC, and particularly Chinese, influence across Africa.

What happens in Kenya undoubtedly matters to the United States. The two countries have always enjoyed strong relations and shared interests. Kenya is the economic and political powerhouse of the East African region. It is currently fighting a war in Somalia against Al-Shabaab, the Al-Qaeda affiliated jihadist group.

Most international organisations and businesses operating in the region are located in Nairobi. The effect of the post-2007 election violence taught us all how important Kenya’s stability is to the economic prosperity of all its neighbours, especially landlocked Uganda, Rwanda, Burundi and South Sudan. It is critical that Kenya is supported and not destabilised at this time.

The best interest of the West is served by respecting the will of the Kenyan electorate and its new institutions.

Similarly, if Kenya’s Supreme Court rules against the IEBC will Prime Minister Odinga distance himself from the US during a run off to guard against any perception that he is sponsored by the West?

I was inspired by Kenya’s presidential debates, and the strong engagement of Kenyan civil society to uphold their new Constitution, and safeguard the freedom of their vote conducted in a peaceful manner. In the upcoming election challenge phase, Kenya’s new institutions must be respected and allowed to operate autonomously.

By Jendayi Frazer- Former US Assistant Secretary of State for African Affairs

[Naxar Nugaaleed]

I was under the impression that both the Kenyan and Ethiopian forces where integrated into amisom

[Mintid Farayar]

Naxar Nugaaleed;928366 wrote:

I was under the impression that both the Kenyan and Ethiopian forces where integrated into amisom

Not correct. The Ethiopians refused to come under the AMISOM umbrella to maintain their strategic maneuverability. The Kenyans initially stayed out but when the indigenous funds ran dry, they were forced to formally join the AMISOM umbrella in order to access the AMISOM financial pipeline (which is considerable by African standards - $1500 per soldier under the current fiscal year).

[Mintid Farayar]

Not to mention the free equipment and administrative funds provided to the originating African country.

[xiinfaniin]

Another pseudo analysis from brother Mintid . Or to be rather generous, his is a conjecture at best .Reality on the ground contradicts with the notion Ethiopian troops can be let go without replacing them with AMISOM from an area where the fight against alshabaab is the fiercest , and critical.

 

Today government ministers and military officers flew to Baydhabo to calm things down, for if Baydhabo goes so will Gedo region that border with Ethiopia...

 

 

And for the assertion this is due for American budget cut , where did you get that precisely ?

[xiinfaniin]

^^ :D

 

You are now officially detaining your reasoning and analytical rigor.