Exit Eritrea: How Could it all End for Isaias Afewerki?

[Xaaji Xunjuf]

Exit Eritrea: How Could it all End for Isaias Afewerki?

 

Afewerki's grip on power in Eritirea is showing signs of weakness. But will we see a coup, cosmetic reforms or even an uprising?

ARTICLE | 14 MARCH 2013 - 10:43AM | BY ANDY RYAN

 

An anti-Afewerki march in the US. Photograph by Steve Rhodes.

Ever since 1993, when Eritrea gained independence and the national assembly elected him president, Isaias Afewerki has ruled over the small East African nation. In these two decades, Afewerki has largely disregarded civil and political rights, jailing dissidents, neglecting to hold elections, banning opposition parties, and restricting freedom of movement. Regionally, Eritrea became diplomatically isolated after disputes with Ethiopia over access to ports erupted into bloody conflict between 1998 and 2000. Many Eritreans have had to rely on food aid, and thousands of ordinary Eritreans have fled, with many finding themselves at the mercy of human traffickers.

 

According to the likes of Human Rights Watch, Afewerki has turned Eritrea into one of the world’s most repressive and isolated states. But after 20 years in power, recent events suggest the president may be losing his grip on power. The possibility that Afewerki will remain a president for life is starting to weaken, and speculation has begun on what end his regime will eventually face. Below are three possibilities for how it could all end.

 

Countdown to a coup?

A coup might be the regime's most likely end. Recent high-profile emigrations suggest that President Afewerki is losing the trust and respect of former loyalists. These include his Information Minister, two air force officers (making their escape on the president’s private jet), a leading eye surgeon, and a significant portion of the national football team.

 

Though details remain hard to verify, there also seems to have been a failed coup, mutiny or military protest on 21 January from within the armed forces, laying bare Afewerki’s possibly weakening control of the military. Afewerki responded with a series of arrests, and will no doubt hope any further potential critics have now been imprisoned or been strongly dissuaded from taking action. However, it is possible that the 21 January events will act as a catalyst for attempts on power, with potential rebels now viewing the regime as vulnerable.

 

Realistically, a coup led by genuine democratic reformers is difficult to imagine. Instead, the leaders would likely be long-standing members of the regime – probably from the pervasive military or security services. Few individuals are likely to expose themselves to the considerable risks involved in a coup attempt, only to then contest power at the ballot box. Yet even a new dictatorship would likely show greater pragmatism than the Afewerki regime. Considering the country's perilous economic situation, there would probably be some attempt to end the country's current international isolation.

 

Implementing reform? The 16-year constitutional itch

After 16 years of waiting, it is evident that President Afewerki has no desire to ever implement the 1997 constitution. He has consistently shown himself unwilling to tolerate any form of opposition, and it is almost inconceivable that he would permit the existence of legitimate opposition parties.

 

The possibility of more limited reform rests on whether the mutiny and high-profile emigrations have had any psychological impact on the president. Following the lead of other dictators throughout history, he could seek to make limited democratic concessions in a bid to gain legitimacy. Yet his record overwhelming depicts him as a man who prefers to tighten his grip through force rather than cunning. His response is much more likely to be increased repression than pragmatic reform.

 

Popular uprising: an Eritrean Spring?

The probability of this scenario is the hardest to judge. Eritreans have long seen the Afewerki’s People’s Front for Democracy and Justice (PFDJ) exercise power with little restraint, and will be aware of the danger of engaging in open protest. Opposition groups within the country have been so harshly repressed that it is even hard to see where the necessary spark and organisation might come from.

 

Yet the Arab Spring spectacularly displayed that well-entrenched regimes can be overwhelmed by popular uprisings. In recent weeks, posters have appeared in the capital of Asmara calling for street protests. This is an indication of an increasing willingness amongst some Eritreans to defy the regime, and suggests a belief that they may hold the power to end the country's woes.

 

The most intriguing question is whether Afewerki would be able to rely on his security forces if confronted by a mass uprising. The loyalty of young conscripts could certainly not be relied upon so, ultimately, much would rest on the decisions of senior officials. They would be forced to judge whether they were protecting a healthy or dying regime – and act accordingly.

 

Think Africa Press welcomes inquiries regarding the republication of its articles. If you would like to republish this or any other article for re-print, syndication or educational purposes, please contact:

[The Zack]

Viva La President Esiyaa!

[Xaaji Xunjuf]

Its seems time is ticking for Mr Isaias afewerki and he is having more opposition by the day , the only thing he can do is if he prepares his son to be his successor Abraham isaias.

[oba hiloowlow]

the hell with him

[Xaaji Xunjuf]

I would not say that , why u against him , he is not a bad guy but i think he is losing grip

[oba hiloowlow]

Xaaji Xunjuf;927547 wrote:

I would not say that , why u against him , he is not a bad guy but i think he is losing grip

He's a bad guy

[Xaaji Xunjuf]

How come explain what bad things did he do

[oba hiloowlow]

do i need to explain ethiopias and eritreas proxywar in koonfuria, eritrea was supplying Al shabaab with weapons as well not long ago, diinta abahood. I hate ethiopians as much as i hate tigray eritreans

[Xaaji Xunjuf]

I dont think eritrea supported alshabaab in somalia they were accused of that, there was no evidence for that poor eritreans were sanctioned because of ethiopia. Eritrea supported the islamic courts union against abdilahi yusuf they gave muuqawamada loads of military equipment. But they didn't support shabaab. By they way there are no tigray eritreans tigray are ethiopians.Eritreans are good people and very strong they dont take crap from the international community. If their president dies or is deposed will be bad for eritrea they will turn eritrea into a ngo project.

 

My favourite african leaders

Robert mugabe

Isaias afewerki

Ismaciil cumar geele

Paul kagame

[oba hiloowlow]

war Habesha and tigray are same shid, meles Zenawi and isaias where first cousins didn't you know? Eritrea supported ICU/shabaab sida ay dagaaladda uu sii dheeradaan oo ethiopia somalia mashquul ku noqoto, aint nobody gonna fool me

[Xaaji Xunjuf]

They are not the same they just speak the same language tigrignas hate the tigray with passion i doubt it they were second cousins but zenawis mother was eritrean but they were not first cousins. But they helped icu didn't you support icu isaias helped icu with arms which was a good thing. Eritrea is the lesser evil, cadawga somalida wa xabashida eeh not eritrea. Ethiopia occupied somalia no one else

[oba hiloowlow]

xaaji they are real cousins. Eritrea is the lesser evil true.

[Jacaylbaro]

Link ???

[oba hiloowlow]

'The present president, Isaias Afewerki, who led the country to independence. Until recently hailed as a model reformist, "new" African leader, he is a cousin of the Ethiopian prime minister, Meles Zenawi'

 

http://www.independent.co.uk/travel/africa/192part-guide-to-the-world-eritrea-633664.html

[Xaaji Xunjuf]

I really doubt they are cousins or close related , i do know meles mother was eritrean i think its just a rumor people spread