In His Attempt to Free Himself from Federalism Constraints, President Hassan Risks Executive Overrea

[xiinfaniin]

SomaliPage Editorial

 

 

 

In His Attempt to Free Himself from Federalism Constraints, President Hassan Risks Executive Overreach.

 

 

 

Somalia has been the textbook example of failed state since late eighties. It has been battered by long and grueling civil war. The country and its poor inhabitants were caught in last two decades in a cycle of violent clan disputes, famine, fanaticism, and piracy.

 

After twenty years of savage internecine tribal strife, hostile foreign interferences, religious insurgency, cosmetic reconciliation exercises and successive corrupt transitional governments, Somali politicians have finally overcame whatever spell the long civil war have casted on them and decided to turn the page and adopt a new political paradigm.

 

 

 

Clan representatives that gathered in Mogadishu in mid 2012 have reached consensus in adopting federation based on pre-civil war administrative regions and enshrined this unfamiliar (to Somalis) political concept in (yet to be ratified) Provisional Constitution.

 

But it would be a mistake to read too much into progress that had been made. Significant features of Provisional Constitution include provision of federal system of Somalia. But such matters as the status of Mogadishu, the capital, and of the borders and the distribution of power and resources between federal states were left undecided. Overall political process was not without controversy either. Draft constitution was rushed to completion. Reconciliation had been and remains to be cosmetic, unreal and incomplete. Al Shabaab forces are still around. And government is weak and counts on AMISOM forces for its security.

 

Nevertheless the adoption of federation in Garowe’s grand compromise played pivotal role in convincing all political stakeholders to place their guarded trust in this new social contract and for the first time pledge their allegiance to post-transitional government.

 

It is safe to portray federalism in Somali context as a bargaining game between clan(s) in power and the opposition clans out of power. To govern the country effectively the central government (the president in particular) needs the political support and mutual cooperation, in the spirit of unity, of not only the members of the Parliament in their capacity as representatives of districts of their clans but also the governors of the federal member states as well.

 

This political arrangement denies clan(s) in power the excesses and immunity the likes of Mohamed Siad Barre’s administration used to enjoy. It empowers opposition parties (clans) and adds a “veto players” to the democratic politics. Such definitive system of checks and balances are inconvenient obstacle in the way of clan(s) in power, hence the current administration in Mogadishu’s disdain for formation of new federal member states. After all Clause 2, Article 48 of Chapter 5 – Devolution of Powers Of Government In Federal Republic Of Somalia – stipulates that single regions that are not part of existing federal member state “shall be directly administered by The Federal Government for maximum period of two years”.

 

Government’s position on formation of the new federal member states is wrong but understandable. It stand to reason, from their part, to ask why help create yet another political forces, on top of existing federal member states, that would certainly constrain the power of federal government to shape the agenda in the crucial post conflict period? According to press accounts, the administration in Mogadishu has formally decided to oppose the way the formation of federal member state of Jubba is managed.

 

Note the government’s claim that it does not oppose the formation of federal member states. It merely wants, the prime minister insists, to guide, to influence and to facilitate state formation process. In other words, it wants to control the outcome. Ironically, it cited Article 48 of Provisional Constitution as the reason it opposes grassroots deliberation in Kismayo.

[xiinfaniin]

The gathering in Kismayo is a grass root driven effort to implement constitutionally protected right to assemble and form a federal state within confines of the grand compromise and agreed social contract. This gathering is also timely and crucial stress testing the resilience of the political settlement to unrestrained executive and presidential power grab. Ongoing deliberation in Kismayo, if it has its way, will create the second federal member state of Somalia.

 

If and when that effort succeeds and Jubba Federal State arrives, the national commission nominated by the Federal Parliament will be tasked to study all unresolved issues regarding federal member states and submit a report of its findings back to the Parliament. Among other unrelated but equally important and outstanding issues members of the Parliament need to look at are issues relating to the implementation of constitutionally mandated Upper House of Parliament, the status of Mogadishu, harmonization of the two levels of government, the establishment of numerous commissions, etc.

 

Instead of working with members of the Parliament the president and his prime minister are trying to overcome constraints that federalism imposed on executive branch. Administration’s overreach, if successful, will redefine the terms of political settlement that brought it to power. Although number of areas concerning the formation of federal members states fall in grey area and the Parliament has the jurisdiction to review and legislate laws clarifying this issue, Constitution is clear that any two or more administrative regions may form federal member state if they so desire.

 

However, if President Hassan’s administration ignores the limits of its constitutional power for political reasons, the consequence of a renewed political conflict could be real, and dire. The political conflict the administration helped create in Jubba region could escalate to dangerous levels where alshabaab, for instance, could leverage the political disagreement between those spearheading Jubbaland State initiative and the administration in Mogadishu to its advantage. That would be a bad development for all involved. According to Ahmed Madobe and Professor Gandi (two men who are leading the Jubba initiative), organizers of Kismayo Conference have no problem in permitting the government to play its constitutional role. What they are vehemently opposed to, they say, is the notion of government forming the state to its liking. The process, they point out, has been in the works for number of years with IGAD acting as an impartial observer to ensure its integrity. It is prudent on the administration’s part to accept the IGAD observed political process in Kismayo and avoid executive overreach, particularly this early stage of the nascent post transitional government. The risks of attempting to water down federalism constraints outweigh its benefits.

 

Source: http://www.somalipage.com/2013/03/in-his-attempt-to-free-himself-from-federalism-constraints-president-hassan-risks-executive-overreach/

[Wadani]

Apophis;924990 wrote:

How bad would it be if this whole government thing collapsed and everybody went back to administering their tuulo? Not too bad in my opinion. Maybe this Somalia thing should die for good, it's barely alive now.

Y so harsh on secessionists then? Ahh...clan is everything, how could I forget.

[Xaaji Xunjuf]

Wadani;924992 wrote:

Y so harsh on secessionists then? Ahh...clan is everything, how could I forget.

He is a secessionist an Ethiopian secessionist but he is opposed to Somaliland secession ,its a weird thing

[Xaaji Xunjuf]

Kenya ethiopia what is the difference , dont they both occupy Somali territories , and what do you mean active love for Ethiopians, its not that there are Ethio's in Somaliland yet they are in 4 regions in south central Somalia under Ethiopian troops never heard you reject those?. Somaliland has little to do with Ethiopia ,Ethiopia is just a neighbor of Somaliland nothing more nothing less like djibouti and yemen.

[Xaaji Xunjuf]

Somalia: Ethiopia, Somalia to Form Joint Ministerial Commission

 

Ethiopian Foreign Minister Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus and Somali Foreign Affairs Minister Fowsiyo Yusuf Haji Aadan agreed to set up a joint ministerial commission, Ethiopia's Ministry of Foreign Affairs announced Tuesday (January 29th).

 

"The signing of this agreement here today will open a new chapter in our relations, further strengthening our unique ties and provide us the opportunity to further cement the existing relations between our peoples," Ghebreyesus said after the ceremony on Monday in Addis Ababa.

 

Aadan thanked Ethiopia for its contribution to peace and stability in Somalia. "Ethiopia has been a great supporter of Somalia," she said. "You have been with us in all these difficult times in the past and we are grateful."

 

The first meeting of the joint ministerial commission will be held in Mogadishu.

[malistar2012]

Apophis;924990 wrote:

How bad would it be if this whole government thing collapsed and everybody went back to administering their tuulo? Not too bad in my opinion. Maybe this Somalia thing should die for good, it's barely alive now.

 

Sxb southern Somalia will never go back to anarchy and lawless as you wish . President and the Pm are doing great job uniting the regions . give it couple of more month 70% of country will be under FG . Gandi former warlord and sh . madoba need to relax ……they are dreaming

 

No one is against Federal state

[Baashi]

Xiin,

 

Here is the dilemma for the folks who share my view of how Somalia ought to look like say in 20 years from now. The dilemma is, on the one hand, I like to see Somalia that is united, at peace with itself, strong in the region and is in a position to shape the future of Somali inhabitants in neighboring states (or can leverage their presence in these states to its advantage). The clan federation does not advance this grand scheme and may actually serve as obstacle to its realization.

 

On the other hand I can see how impractical such notion is today given the reality on the ground as deeply impeded mistrust between Somalis clouds their judgment in evaluating Somalia’s geopolitical position in a world where resource are scarce and weak states are exploited by and forced to toe the line of big and powerful states hungry for resources.

 

From this first point of view I kind of sympathize with President Hassan’s view in halting the federalism to its tracks now and find another solution that could satisfy all stakeholders.

 

From the second point of view, I kind of see population that are deeply shocked and thrown off base by the brutality of civil war and resolved to never repeat past mistakes again. I understand that Somalia is where it is today thanks to the political settlement they had between themselves. Any attempt in circumventing that ongoing political process has its dangers and one must be very careful in proceeding with policies that’s not in sync with the constitution (the social contract).

 

How can one square this circle?

[xiinfaniin]

Baashi,

 

I agree with you that federalism is not an ideal solution (even when it is not based on clans) for Somalia. However, civil war experience will continue to shape the Somali politics for the years to come. Federalism is a compromise solution; it gives the country a time to heal , gives the central government time to rebuild trust between the various stakeholders, and it gives regional states the safeguard it so fiercely fought.

 

Somalia needs time to try what you correctly termed the federal social contract. If it works out, it will be good and dandy. If it proves difficulty to implement let the parliament do its job...the executive needs to get hell out of that way and concentrate the true national priorities i.e. reconciliation, trust building , and security ...

 

The president would have garnered sympathy and support had he not so quickly thrown himself into the Kismayo issue.And for that reason president Hassan seems today to represent a narrow interest of certain communities , unable to see see the big picture. He comes across as sort of an activist president who fails to distinguish political commentary from constitutional principles that are supposed to guide the country in the next four years.

[Carafaat]

Apophis;924990 wrote:

How bad would it be if this whole government thing collapsed and everybody went back to administering their tuulo? Not too bad in my opinion. Maybe this Somalia thing should die for good, it's barely alive now.

Nobody is stoping you to administer your tuulo Afmadoow or anyone else's from governing their tuulo. However we object to the idea of trying to get power or rule Somalia through the side way.

[Somalia]

The constitution has become a side waaaaaaay looooooooooooooool

[Baashi]

xiinfaniin;925043 wrote:

Baashi,

 

I agree with you that federalism is not an ideal solution (even when it is not based on clans) for Somalia. However, civil war experience will continue to shape the Somali politics for the years to come. Federalism is a compromise solution; it gives the country a time to heal , gives the central government time to rebuild trust between the various stakeholders, and it gives regional states the safeguard it so fiercely fought.

 

Somalia needs time to try what you correctly termed the federal social contract. If it works out, it will be good and dandy. If it proves difficulty to implement let the parliament do its job...the executive needs to get hell out of that way and concentrate the true national priorities i.e. reconciliation, trust building , and security ...

 

The president would have garnered sympathy and support had he not so quickly thrown himself into the Kismayo issue.And for that reason president Hassan seems today to represent a narrow interest of certain communities , unable to see see the big picture. He comes across as sort of an activist president who fails to distinguish political commentary from constitutional principles that are supposed to guide the country in the next four years.

Agreed. The ball is in Gollaha Ummada if they can handle it.

[xiinfaniin]

Right on Baashi.

 

And today, they finally issued a memo of intent to deliberate on these issues. Here is where I think important constitutional matters ought to be discussed. I do not believe current parliament has the authority to alter the federalism principles that underpin the political settlement that resulted in ending the transition. What the parliament can and must do though is to affirm and perhaps clarify those principles.

 

If one is not happy with how the transition was ended, one would be best advised to bite the bullet and wait four more years when the constitution will be up for vote ...

[Baashi]

Are professors in your neck of the wood in Mogadishu or are they sipping chai latte in the cozy caffee shops in Minni?

 

This is a watershed moment, a turning, tipping point if you will, and history will be made if Somalis learn how to fight politics in the halls of Aqalka Ummada. I welcome the vitriol of any politician so long they are not mobilizing unemployed 20ish with guns to score points.

 

We're making a progress awoowe.

[xiinfaniin]

^^^Unfortunately, they are sill here in the City of Lakes . Rumors are flying that one of the two professors will give up the parliament post.

 

But we shall see how it plays out...