Hassan Sheikh Applies Diplomatic Pressure on Kismayo Finances

[Carafaat]

Zack, you still haven't addressed the issue of charcoal? So what is your view on this? give us your perspective. Do you think the charcoal export should continue? Dont try to distract with Jubbaland ha no laato, kpmg accountant reports on central bank iyo other issues non related to this thread.

[Mintid Farayar]

The Zack;968746 wrote:

Mintid,

 

You are an epic failure! You have told us "you knew Hasan" and he will use his political weights and get rid of Jubaland. Well guess what? It has been 5 months and Jubaland is flying as high as any one could imagine. You predictions and wishes were both wrong.

 

As for this report, it will not change anything on the ground. Come back to us when this changes anything.

 

 

LOL @ Zack. Take a deep breath and attempt to contemplate the fact that I told you 4 months ago this would be a problem down the road for Ras Kamboni.

 

As for Hassan Sheikh and my wishes, put some proof behind your emotional outburst and show us the threads where I told you 'he would get rid of Jubbaland/Azania'.

 

***What I did was point out the different diplomatic pressure points his administration would use against this concoction. Your side attempted to mock those diplomatic tactics as fantasies coming from Mintid's imagination. Mistakenly, in your emotional confusion, you confuse pointing out future tactics of one side as 'support for that side'. Now one of those strategies charitably told to you by Mintid (4 months ago) is being played out as we speak.

 

BTW, Jubbaland as it stands currently in Kismayo, is not completely out of the woods. That's not because I favor one group over the other (after all both groups squabbling are adamently opposed to SL), but rather just an observation of certain realities at play in the current environment.

 

I've got another freebie for you, Zack (I'm feeling charitable during Ramadan). Jubbaland/Azania will in the 'very near future' give up claims to having Gedo included in the region & will attempt to consolidate the potential new federal state within Lower and Middle Jubba. So the project will encompass only those 2 regions without Gedo in its aspirational model. Just remember you heard it here first....

 

As for why this particular UN Report is important and will have an effect on the situation... I would love to explain but duty calls me away. Plus it gets tiring explaining everything to some people in 'FAR WAAWEYN' all the time.........

[Che -Guevara]

Mintid. The Gedo thing was expected, don't you think. You don't need insider information, just little deductive reasoning.

[Mintid Farayar]

Che -Guevara;968777 wrote:

Mintid. The Gedo thing was expected, don't you think. You don't need insider information, just little deductive reasoning.

 

Che,

 

What makes you think I'm not using that same deductive reasoning?

 

BTW, where did this association with insider information come from? LOL.... I've never personally claimed insider information. It's just that once I noticed how cracked some of the crystal balls around here are... I decided to peek inside my own crystal ball

[Mintid Farayar]

Back at the beginning of March, I telegraphed for some the exact same information the U.N. Somalia Monitoring Group is now reporting to the Security Council - that the Kenyans have become financially involved in the charcoal business. That the issue is much bigger than the previous charcoal already at the port!

 

 

Mintid Farayar;924079 wrote:

Meanwhile, the illicit trade in charcoal continues at full pace in Kismayo. One leading "Kenyan' company involved in the direct exporting of this charcoal is called 'SIFA', linked to the nephew of a current leading Somali-Kenyan political heavyweight(I will leave him unnamed for now...).

 

Just follow the money, gentlemen, like I always tell you.

 

Facts are such inconvenient things

http://www.somaliaonline.com/community/showthread.php/70027-Recent-Happenings-in-Kismayo/page2

[Mustafe]

Lool@ Just follow the money. Its true, if one only follows the money infront of him/her will always be iftiin. Its the same method these UN monitoring groups and even spy agencies follow in order to come to a point of clarity or track down whoever they wish to dish something out on. You have been vinidcated by history Mintid, well done. Lol.

[Mintid Farayar]

Back in early March(in this same thread), some on this Forum who claim to be from the Kismayo region were adamantly arguing that "all charcoal export had been stopped in Kismayo". I continued to inform them that this was an economic impossibility given the financial realities of the region.

 

 

xiinfaniin;924677 wrote:

' charcoal export ' has been stopped in Kismayo.

The point of contention has been around inventory of harvested charcoal. And that to my knowledge has been settled. The admin will sell the inventory, ganacsadayaashii lahaana waxooday helayaan , maamulkuna wax buu ka helayaa

 

 

Macno is as always reading too much into this. Al cilmul qaliil yuqal qilu saaxibah

 

It seems those who claim to be the sons of the region with the greatest local interest (at least according to them) are the ones consistently peddling the least accurate information on the region!

 

What gives???

[Mintid Farayar]

And the Kenyan response a day later....

Damage control...

 

 

______________________________________

Kenya denies defying UN ban on Somalia charcoal trade

 

 

Sacks of charcoal in Kismayo - Somalia, February 2013

The UN estimates charcoal exports from Kismayo worth $15m to $16m a month

 

 

Kenya has dismissed a UN report which accuses its troops in Somalia of facilitating charcoal exports in defiance of a UN Security Council ban.

 

The report, leaked to Reuters news agency, said Kenyan troops helped export charcoal from Kismayo port after militant Islamist group al-Shabab lost control of it in September 2012.

 

The UN banned the export of charcoal from Somalia in February 2012.

 

It alleges that the industry is a major source of income for al-Shabab.

 

'Lacks objectivity'

Kenya and the African Union (AU) appealed to the UN Security Council to lift the ban after al-Shabab fighters fled Kismayo following last year's offensive by Kenyan troops and a Somali militia known as Ras Kamboni.

 

When the Security Council refused, Kenya's army and Ras Kamboni "took the unilateral decision to begin the export of charcoal" from Kismayo, said the report, compiled by a UN panel of experts.

 

It said al-Shabab retained a stake in the industry.

 

Map

"Essentially, with the changeover of power in Kismayo, the shareholding of the charcoal trade at the port was divided into three between al-Shabab, Ras Kamboni and Somali Kenyan businessmen cooperating with the KDF [Kenya Defence Forces]," the report alleged.

 

KDF spokesman Bogita Ongeri said the report lacked objectivity and had not been properly researched.

 

Kenyan troops had curtailed al-Shabab's operations in Somalia and had put a "stop" to the illegal charcoal trade, he said, Kenya's Daily Nation newspaper reports.

 

The total trade volume of charcoal exports from southern Somalia in 2011 increased to between nine million and 10 million sacks, generating revenues for the al-Qaeda group in excess of $25m (£16m), the UN report said.

 

Charcoal exports from Kismayo were estimated to be worth $15m to $16m per month, it added.

 

Kismayo has been hit by clashes between rival Somali militia since al-Shabab fled the city in September 2012.

 

The city is seen as a lucrative prize for militias, which could gain financially from charcoal exports, port taxes and levies on weapons and other illegal imports.

 

Kenya sent troops to Somalia in October 2011, alleging that al-Shabab was threatening its security.

 

Its troops later joined the African Union (AU) force helping the weak Somali government fend off threats by al-Shabab to overthrow it.

 

 

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-africa-23314640

[Mintid Farayar]

The Kenyans go a step further today:

"We(the Kenyans) are not going anywhere, whether you like it or not!"

 

Sad.... You let the wolf into the henhouse and then, expect him to leave willingly ......

 

________________________________________________________________________

 

 

 

 

 

Kenya Says Army to Remain in Somalia Until it Stabilizes

By David Malingha Doya - Jul 15, 2013 4:05 PM GMT+0400

 

Kenya’s government rejected accusations by Somalia that its forces breached their peacekeeping mandate and said the troops will remain there until the Horn of Africa country stabilizes.

Somali President Hassan Sheikh Mohamoud earlier this month asked a group of Kenyan forces to leave the country’s south, accusing them of violating their mandate by supporting one of two factions seeking control of the Jubaland region. Somalia wants a “neutral force” to replace the Kenyan peacekeepers, Somali Information Minister Abdishakur Ali Mire said on July 1.

Kenyan troops entered Somalia in October 2011 to fight al-Qaeda-linked Islamist group al-Shabaab after a series of kidnappings of foreigners and the murder of a British tourist in Kenya, which the government blamed on the militant group. Tourism is Kenya’s second-biggest foreign-exchange earner.

 

“Kenya’s security along the border with Somalia is intractably linked to peace and stability in that country,” Zaddock Syong’oh, a policy adviser in Kenya’s Foreign Ministry, said in an interview on July 12 in the capital, Nairobi. “Kenya’s military will not therefore leave Somalia until it is stable and secure.”

 

Kenya’s focus in Somalia is to secure Jubaland, which is also used as a base to plan attacks on Kenya, he said. “It is a matter of Kenya’s national security,” Syong’oh said.

Aid Deterrence

The semi-autonomous region is the main source of the more than 600,000 Somali refugees currently in Kenya, Antonio Guterres, United Nations High Commissioner for Refugees, said on July 10. The UNHCR and other aid agencies are unable to deliver assistance in parts of Jubaland and situation there remains “tense,” Guterres said in an e-mailed statement.

Since they began the incursion, Kenyan forces have helped African Union peacekeepers liberate parts of southern and central Somalia previously controlled by al-Shabaab. Operations to free more territory have been suspended while the government resolves its dispute with Kenya, Syong’oh said.

Somalia accused Kenya of violating its mandate after clashes between two factions seeking control of Kismayo, the capital of Jubaland. Regional leaders in May elected Ahmed Mohamed Islam, a warlord also known as Madobe, as the region’s interim president. Barre Adam Shire Hirrale, a former defense minister, has since declared himself head of the region, according to the African Union.

“Kenya is not supporting any one,” Syong’oh said.

An e-mail and calls to Somali Prime Minister Abdi Farah Shirdon Saaid’s office seeking comment weren’t answered.

Kenyan President Uhuru Kenyatta said on April 9 his country has “invested immense diplomatic energy and resources in the quest for a stable Somalia,” and will support the African Union peace process in Somalia because “a stable and prosperous Somalia is in the interest of all nations.”

The UN is creating a tripartite commission with the governments of Kenya and Somalia to prepare for the voluntary return home of Somali refugees. The repatriation should be slow to avoid destabilizing the peace process, Guterres said.

 

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2013-07-15/kenya-says-army-to-remain-in-somalia-until-it-stabilizes.html

[Mintid Farayar]

As events develop with the charcoal allegations, it will become clear(even to the extremely obtuse, of which there were many loud examples) where I was going with this thread earlier in the year.

 

 

_________________________________________________

UN to be briefed on Somalia charcoal

 

 

TUESDAY, JULY 16, 2013 - 00:00 -- BY NZAU MUSAU

 

THE UN Security Council will on Wednesday be briefed of the Somali monitoring report which blames Kenya Defence Forces of facilitating a banned multibillion charcoal export business in Kismayu port city.

 

The report whose contents have been reported by Reuters will be tabled by Korean chair Kim Sook in New York. The report was due for presentation last Friday according to the UNSC programme.

 

Resolution 2036 of 2012 imposed a ban on the direct or indirect import of charcoal from Somalia as one of the ways of financially crippling the al Shaabab militants who were running the port.

 

“All member states shall take the necessary measures to prevent the direct or indirect import of charcoal from Somalia, whether or not such charcoal originated in Somalia. Somali authorities shall take the necessary measures to prevent the export of charcoal from Somalia,” it said.

 

But the report which Sook will be presenting KDF of not only abetting the export business but also expanding it. It says KDF resorted to abetting the export business after the UNSC failed to lift the ban following a request by the African Union.

 

The report shows the thrust of KDF arguments in supporting the AU position on the charcoal ban was that angry charcoal dealers could have undermined its presence in Kismayu.

 

“Instead, it was far more likely that exporting charcoal would exacerbate clan tensions and resource interests, leading to much broader conditions of conflict. And this is precisely what subsequently occurred,” Reuters quoted the report as saying.

 

Last month, fierce fighting erupted in Kismayu between rival militias over control of the city. The fighting happened after Ahmed Madobe, the leader of the Ras Kamboni militia, became the leader of the Jubaland region (which includes Kismayu) in May.

 

- See more at: http://www.the-star.co.ke/news/article-128234/un-be-briefed-somalia-charcoal#sthash.odrzAEXO.dpuf

[Somalia]

The retarded notion of selective nationalism is what we've come to expect from some quarters.

[Mintid Farayar]

The Zack;968746 wrote:

Mintid,

 

You are an epic failure! You have told us "you knew Hasan" and he will use his political weights and get rid of Jubaland. Well guess what? It has been 5 months and Jubaland is flying as high as any one could imagine. You predictions and wishes were both wrong.

 

As for this report, it will not change anything on the ground. Come back to us when this changes anything.

 

Haye Zack,

 

What do you have to say about my warnings of 'diplomatic pressure' from Hassan these days??

[The Zack]

Same ole same ole!

 

Hassan "scores' big and "puts" pressure on Jubaland from OUTSIDE, yet he achieves nothing on the GROUND. He is acting like a kid so IGAD plays him like one.

[Mintid Farayar]

The Zack;972233 wrote:

Same ole same ole!

 

Hassan "scores' big and "puts" pressure on Jubaland from OUTSIDE, yet he achieves nothing on the GROUND..

 

On that part we agree. Notice, I've carefully used the phrase 'diplomatic pressure' through out all my postings on Kismayo/Jubbaland. I've long understood that's the only card Hassan Sheikh has in the current line-up.

 

However, if you would put down your emotional glasses for a second, you would also see that Ras Kamboni's situation is just as precarious.

 

 

Both are propped up by outside powers. If the outside powers withdraw their support, each side would collapse.

[Xaaji Xunjuf]

Lets give credit to Mintid he had it right all along for as hassan applied diplomatic pressure on Kismayo. But the outside powers supported one side overwhelmingly on this.