A third way for Somaliland and Somalia

[DoctorKenney]

Xaaji Xunjuf;910011 wrote:

Oodweyne whats the alternative though lets say we stop all these talks with Somalia than what we all know with the AU and IGAD Somaliland will not make any progress during the rayaale regime they did what they could. Somalilands destiny is in the hands of its people Mogadishu will not dictate or say what Somaliland will do or can do. I just think that the Somaliland elites as you put it work out some sort of exit strategy along with this lose union if it helps Somalia safe face along the line.

Xaaji, would you support the "self-determination" of the people of Nugaal province or Gedo province or Mudug province to secede from the Federal Republic of Somalia? Would you support the "self-determination" of the people of Alabama or California or Illinois to secede from the United States of America?

 

And if not, why not?

[Xaaji Xunjuf]

Well we can give an opinion on that if the people of gedo and Nugaal are calling for secession so far we haven't seen any. In Kenya the Mombasa case want secession we can than discuss if its legitimate or not.

 

By the way i believe in the unity of the United states of America, ,Americas diversity is where its strength lies every one adds a cultural aspect to the American society which makes it beautiful. Unity justice and equality for all.

[DoctorKenney]

Xaaji Xunjuf;910063 wrote:

Well we can give an opinion on that if the people of gedo and Nugaal are calling for secession so far we haven't seen any. In Kenya the Mombasa case want secession we can than discuss if its legitimate or not.

 

By the way i believe in the unity of the United states of America, ,Americas diversity is where its strength lies every one adds a cultural aspect to the American society which makes it beautiful. Unity justice and equality for all.

Well obviously my question is hypothetical. One of the key aspects in creating policy is dealing with hypothetical situations.

 

If the people of Gedo region wish to form their own independent mini-state, do you think it should happen? Do you realize the implications which could result if "Somaliland" is given independence? I think this whole secessionist logic is nothing more than Somalis running away from their problems and not coming together to figuring out common solutions.

 

Within Somaliland itself, you have large groups of people openly opposing the secessionist agenda, so where should the line be drawn? When is it acceptable for a nation to be splintered just because some of the people don't want to be a part of the Union?

 

And if you support the territorial integrity of the USA, then why wouldn't you support the territorial integrity of Somalia?

[Xaaji Xunjuf]

But what is the territorial integrity of Somalia raskambooni to raas caseer as many of the Koonfurians proudly say when they describe their Somalia geographically.The people of Somaliland and Somalia created a union about 52 years ago both of these countries could have gone their separate ways. But they didn't, Nugaal is not the same as Somaliland. Somaliland made a union with Somalia an act of union was signed some say it was never ratified but lets not go into that there was a union and that union failed because one side said they are no longer part of the union now there were many factors that played a role why the union failed i dont wanna go into that. But the moment you acknowledge that Somaliland was not an entity of Somalia is the day we could come to a solution. Somaliland and Somalia united on first of July 1960 as equals not one dominating the other. And when both Somaliland and Somalia talk about their past and how it went wrong only than a tangible solution can be reached.

[metta]

If we look at the reality, Somaliland's chances of getting independence and recognition from the international community has worsened considerably in the last 12 months. They have especially worsened this week after Washington D.C recognized the Somali government. Clinton said they will only engage with the Mohamoud administration and no other administration. It is now official that Somaliland will not get any recognition from the international community. The only route for recognition is through Xamar. That has now been officially established this week and even the Somalilanders know this as much as it pains them.

 

We know the official stance of Somalia when it comes to Somaliland recognition -- it is a no.

 

We know the official stance of Somaliland when it comes to re-unification -- it is a no.

 

But, Somalia has the upper hand here. They have international backing. When it comes to international relations, they have unanimous support. The countries that Somaliland has tried to establish ties with the most (Djibouti and Ethiopia) will not recognize Somaliland. Even the countries that don't have best relationship with the EU and the US will not recognize Somaliland. Somaliland has no support unfortunately.

 

I am not sure who will be the ultimate victor in the battle between Somaliland and Somalia. But one thing is for sure, the one who will get the most punches will be Somaliland.

 

Somaliland's future will either be unifying with Somalia OR forever staying as an unrecognized country. There is no recognition coming.

 

Only recognition can come from Xamar and Somalia isn't going to give Somaliland any recognition and they don't need too. Somalia has the world on it's side. And Somaliland is beginning to realize this.

[DoctorKenney]

Xaaji Xunjuf;910075 wrote:

But what is the territorial integrity of Somalia raskambooni to raas caseer as many of the Koonfurians proudly say when they describe their Somalia geographically.The people of Somaliland and Somalia created a union about 52 years ago both of these countries could have gone their separate ways. But they didn't, Nugaal is not the same as Somaliland. Somaliland made a union with Somalia an act of union was signed some say it was never ratified but lets not go into that there was a union and that union failed because one side said they are no longer part of the union now there were many factors that played a role why the union failed i dont wanna go into that. But the moment you acknowledge that Somaliland was not an entity of Somalia is the day we could come to a solution. Somaliland and Somalia united on first of July 1960 as equals not one dominating the other. And when both Somaliland and Somalia talk about their past and how it went wrong only than a tangible solution can be reached.

In 1845, the Republic of Texas voluntarily relinquished their sovereignty and joined the United States of America. Using this logic, if the Texans wish to secede from the USA, should they be allowed to do so, especially considering that Texas was an independent Nation at one point in time?

 

Once you join a nation, that can't be undone. You can't join the Somali Republic and then leave as soon as it becomes inconvenient for you. Think about how childish this sounds

[Xaaji Xunjuf]

Many countries made unions all over the world that doesn't mean they are attached for ever legally Somaliland has the best case in Africa politically we yet have to see. Somaliland is not a secessionist case. If the tables were turned and it was Somalia that refused the union and Somaliland was the one calling for union. Somalia would not be a secessionist entity because the two united equally voluntarily. By the way we cant say it became a little inconvenient its not the right term to use its a bit more difficult than that. Do you know there was a bloody war do you know there was a Coup d'état 1961 in Somaliland. The difference between texas and Somaliland is that Somaliland and Somalia united equally it didn't join Somalia it united on equal terms and signed an act of union.The name we agreed on was the Somali republic not Somalia in Afsomali Jamhuuriyada Somalida. My question to you is what will Somalia lose if Somaliland is recognized politically economically socially?

[DoctorKenney]

Xaaji Xunjuf;910084 wrote:

Many countries made unions all over the world that doesn't mean they are attached for ever legally Somaliland has the best case in Africa politically we yet have to see. Somaliland is not a secessionist case. If the tables were turned and it was Somalia that refused the union and Somaliland was the one calling for union. Somalia would not be a secessionist entity because the two united equally voluntarily. By the way we cant say it became a little inconvenient its not the right term to use its a bit more difficult than that. Do you know there was a bloody war do you know there was a Coup d'état 1961 in Somaliland. The difference between texas and Somaliland is that Somaliland and Somalia united equally it didn't join Somalia it united on equal terms and signed an act of union.The name we agreed on was the Somali republic not Somalia in Afsomali Jamhuuriyada Somalida. My question to you is what will Somalia lose if Somaliland is recognized politically economically socially?

What will Somalia lose? Well for one, we will lose 1/3rd of our population/resources/territory, as well as dividing Somalis even further, when we need unity more than ever. And it will open the way for further secessionist activities. It will set a dangerous precedent.

 

If Somaliland is recognized, you don't think that one day, Puntland "citizens" might be upset with the government in Mogadishu,and then decide to entertain secessionists who would like nothing more than to see Somalia split up into multiple mini nation-states? Perhaps the people of Awdal might want to form their own independent state. Strength lies in unity. Somalis are already divided when colonial borders were set up between the NFD and the Somali Region of Western Ethiopia. Why would we want to create further division by promoting the secessionist agenda of the Hargeisa government? As I said before, this "secession" is nothing more than Somalis running away from their problems instead of facing them like men.

[Xaaji Xunjuf]

Doctor but still Somalia will basically survive and wont lose a big territory its not desperate in need of Somaliland in order to continue as a strong state. I also do not agree with you're assessment that Puntland has secessionist tendencies they never did they are more concerned about their federalism and to gain seats in the govt in Mogadishu. Doctor Puntlanders are very ambitious by nature and want always to be the leaders, so PL secession is meaningless. What about the gains though Somalia will have less people to share resources with it will have less dissatisfied citizens because unity with Somalia is like a prison for Somalilanders. I think the vast majority of Somalia's resources are in the south basically Somalia will not lose oil fields and fertile land like Sudan did. I have always said the Somaliand and Somalia case is the easiest to solve in Africa if we ignore the emotions on both sides. Its been 22 years now its either come to a solution or well the statusquo we are independent and we will not rest till we have a homeland for our people. And Mogadishu will say no you cannot leave and you will have action reaction. And before you know it the people in both SL and Somalia will be exhausted and have ill feeling towards each other why go that route. No one has a real solution i suggest to dissolve the union officially and set up an agreement economic integration movement of people and in the year 2113 re negotiate a confederacy system i think that can bring a solution to both Somaliland and Somalia.

[Ace of Spadez]

The more things change, the more they stay the same. It is comical to say the least to witness the same old hostility year in and year out with no end in sight. I’ve been hearing these lines for the past 22 years:

 

“Somaliland is carro [insert qabiil here]”

“Somaliland cannot survive economically”

“Somaliland is a foreign creation – Ethiopia, UK, etc.”

“Somaliland does not exist, it is Gobolka Waqooyi Galbeed”

“Somaliland will crumble as soon as Somalia gets a legitimate government”

“Somaliland will come back to the fold when the international community lavishes Somalia with developmental aid”

“Somaliland has been rejected by the international community, and therefore cannot be sustainable”

 

All these taunts have hit a crescendo this week. Somalia finally has a recognized government and will be afforded all the aid that comes with it. So that must mean Somaliland is dead in the water. One solitary photo with Obama and Somaliland has effectively been hobbled permanently if not trashed in the annals of history as an aberration.

 

The popular belief is since Mogadishu will be pulling the purse strings, it will dangle some carrots in front of Somaliland and the people will rush en masse like lemmings. Unfortunately for my friends from Somalia this phantom hope that Somaliland will cease to exist will not come to pass. I must apologize for being the bearer of such bad news.

 

For all intent and purposes, nothing has really changed for Somaliland. Somaliland has been receiving aid under the name Somalia since 1991 and will continue to do so. In fact, it will get it directly. Yes, you heard me, directly. Point 5 of the Somaliland-Somaliland communiqué in Chevening House gaurentees this: “Agreed to share experience on working more effectively with the international community on the use of development and humanitarian assistance for the people of both sides and called for the international community to increase that assistance; “.

 

So in a nut shell, if when more aid comes for Somalia, Somaliland will get its share directly, what incentive does Somalia have to entice Somaliland with? The answer is a big fat nothing. In fact even the ones who had some hope of Pan-Somalism be it out of sheer convenience or clannish calculus; the likes Prof. Samatar & Prof. Galeydh came up empty handed going 0 for 2.

 

Now the reality in the Horn of Africa is that Somaliland has shown it is economically, politically and culturally viable existing for the past 22 years. It is also evident that it controls nearly every major city within its borders from Zeyla to Lascanod, Ceerigaabo to Borama, Xuddun to Gebilay and therefore in possession of its territory. So the question is then if Somalia does not have any muscle to subdue Somaliland –since it is being propped up foreign and neighbouring countries’ forces – and has no economic incentive – since Somaliland will be getting its aid directly– what is left for Somalia to do? I think the most pragmatic solution is that of Rahima; live & let live. There is no putting this genie back in its bottle. The die is cast. Time to move on I say and lets go easy on the negativity.

 

Now, for those from Somaliland, as much as I would philosophically agree with Mr. Mohamed Hashi, or Mr. Oodweyne, or Mr. Warancadde about not entertaining any talks with Somalia, I am inclined to agree with President Silanyo on this matter. The simple truth is people make decisions with their stomach not on principle. Mr Mohamed Hashi can wait until year 3000 for the recognition of Somaliland, because he is a man of principle, but the likes of Mr. Buurmadow cannot. So what should a responsible government do? It must deliver development for its people so that they may not be enticed by fools gold that might have otherwise become enticing. We’ve always received aid in the name of Somalia, it is no secret. To take a pre-emptive strike to negotiate in getting your share of aid without relinquishing your sovereignty is a master stroke. In fact I believe President Silanyo has effectively inoculated Somaliland from the defections that would have come had they not taken this step as people complained about the lack of development vis-à-vis with Somalia. I know offense is the more attractive way to play, but playing defense goes a long to set one up for victory. Our issue is not with winning battles, but winning the war.

 

The journey we’re on is not one day but we’re in it for the long haul. The last interview Mr. Ibrahim Maygag Samatar gave was to continue to build our nation and strengthen our democracy and make our country a better place, with or without recognition. Let us not lose sight of the bigger picture. The temporary fission caused by the local elections will subside and the disaffected will coalesce under the two national opposition parties. Patience always wins out, as the Somali saying goes “Hadii Degdegsiimo Door Noqdaan, Kaadsiiyana Kiish Lacag ah Bay Noqdaan”

[Che -Guevara]

Nagadaa Ace, surely if that was Siilaanyo in the photo being endorsed by Obama admin, you would agree that would have complicated things for Somalia.

[STOIC]

I think Ace argument is valid in a way that nothing is going to happen to Somaliland unless someone will convince me that Somalia is going to use some outside muscles to overthrow the government in Somaliland. The magnitude of this predicament makes it imposible to predict that the union will be revived in our lifetime.So basically things will stay separate for a very long time. Somalia will mind its business and not have any control over Somaliland.

[Ace of Spadez]

Che, please explain why it would complicate things for Somalia? Somaliland being a recognized nation does no harm to Somalia, unless I'm missing something? I believe Somalia’s recognition has little to do with Somaliland. Somaliland has gotten around the diplomatic ramification that would have transpired, by putting its conflict with Somalia before the international community. The notion that Somalia has been recognized, Somaliland will be frozen out in the international arena is fictitious to say the least. Put some meat on those bones and do tell how it complicates things, because before this week and the week before that, Somalia had always been a recognized country.

 

I’ll give you this much, you could argue this might have some bearing on Somalia’s inner workings and different local admins, but Somaliland is an exception to that. I would have thought you’d know better. I mean starting from this week, Somalia could dictate to Ximan & Xeeb or Jubaland or Puntland but surely not Somaliland. Let us not confuse the two. Also, don’t confuse Mr. Odweyne’s displeasure with Somaliland’s Foreign Policy to mean he thinks the jig is up. He just thinks by engaging with Somalia we may have allowed for crazy ideas like this article in the thread to be written and mused about. I don’t blame him, but sometimes you have to wade in treacherous waters to cross to the other side.

[Ace of Spadez]

STOIC, I think you’re right. Recognition or no recognition, Somalia & Somaliland’s union is over. I like how at the Buroa Conference in 1991, the delegates after debating concluded the union between Somalia and Somaliland bore three major benefits:

 

1. The road between Lascanod & outskirts of Borama.

2. The cement factory in Berbera– At one point the cement factory was not to be built there. It was built somewhere in the south. The raw materials used to be shipped from near Berbera all the way to the south until it didn’t make sense economically and the factory was eventually relocated to Berbera. LOL

3. The Dock at Berbera

 

Unfortunately the union when looked at in totally for Somaliland was a total write off. It was mostly negative from inception with the lack of equal opportunity and the injustice that followed culminating in the destruction of life & property. There are very little positives to mention and even they had to be fought for tooth & nail.

 

So honestly there is nothing worth uniting, unless of course there was some kind of interest invovled. If Somalia does not have any money and it is just as poor itself and is an aid recipient, what would it entice Somaliland with? The plain and simple answer is nothing. Going it alone has actually developed every single city of Somaliland. Somaliland is in better condition than they were in before. No Somaliland city had university before, now they all do.

[Rahima]

Wadani;909975 wrote:

So what do u think of Rahima? A foreign city inhabited by inhospitable Somalis hostile to other Somalis from beyond their borders?

 

How many time do i have to tell ppl, Somalilanders don't hate other somalis. Just come to Hargaysa and u'll see how multi-clan the city is....and the southerners there fare much better than they do in so called 'somaliwayn' territory like puntland, where thousands of them were forcefully deported. Why would u let a political divorce change how u perceive ur fellow Somalis in Somaliland; to me it doesn't seem like a balanced view of things

Wadani, the reality IS that there are a lot of ill feelings. A wife doesn't ask for a divorce because she still loves her husband.

 

I see Hargeysa the same way i see Djibouti- a foreign land. Not foreign like Kenya or Ethiopia but still foreign. Why is that a problem? Isn't that how Somalilanders see cities such as Kismaayo, Mogadishu and Bosaaso? If i am treated as a foreigner well then of course i will feel like a foreigner, you can't blame me for holding this view.

 

Che,

 

I have not made it a secret that i am vehemently against the Somali interpretation of Federalism for it is based on what destroyed us in the first place. All of these qabiil based administrations disgust me, but the way I see it is that so long as spouses (to go back to my initial analogy) agree to remain under the same roof (even if they sleep in different rooms), there is still a chance that ill feelings can be mended and they can once again find love and understanding. Once one of them wants to move out, the situation is complicated.

 

I don't know why so much energy is wasted on this issue. The people of SL (including the contested areas) should be allowed to have a referendum and any areas voting yes for independence should be given it (in that the Somali government should recognise their wishes). We should be putting our energy towards the rebuilding of bridges between those who DO want to remain as part of Somalia. We should be putting our energy towards the rebuilding of Somalia. Our country is alhamdullilah getting back on its feet and that is what we should put our collective efforts towards. If SL does gain independence i will wish them well but i will not concern myself with their affairs- my home is my business, the home of others is not any of my business. I personally feel that if we adopt this attitude, with time, the wounds will heal.