Squaring the circle

[Baashi]

Squaring the circle

By Inna Kaadi Najaasle

 

The issue of Kismayo and Jubba is back on the spotlight. The region in general and the port city of Kismayo in particular has seen many misfortunes – unrest, intractable clannish and sectarian wars, famine, etc. There is yet another wave of misfortune on the horizon if the tense political wrangling now underway left unchecked.

 

The city like the nation’s capital is an urban center and hub for the wider region. Region’s livestock traders, textile merchants, construction material sellers and commodity haulers in far away periphery towns in Garbahaareey, Bu’aale and Xaggar districts and all towns in between rely on Kismayo port for all their business.

 

Kismayo is not that different from Berbera and Bossasso ports in terms of its economic significance to the region it serves. The trucks travelling in the narrow, poorly constructed and neglected roads that snake through the vast region of Gannaane run on diesel and gas imported through the port.

 

The sugar, flour, rice, tea, and kerosene -- the very basic and everyday necessities -- come through the port. In the event of dispute or war where port has to be closed the price of all imported goods quadruple throughout the region. Goods flow through Benadir, Mandera town (taxed goods) of Kenya and in some extreme cases far away Bossasso.

 

As you can see when port is not functioning -- distance, labor, storage (warehouses along the road), tax (Kenya), and transportation are cost adders.

 

It’s no wonder that politicians and generals recruit militia from all the corners of the region and bring them to the city and its surroundings to make a play for control of its port.

 

If the port is this important for all sides concerned why is it difficult to reach an amicable agreement that satisfy all interest groups?

 

Good question. The trouble with this question is that it assumes that factions involved acknowledge the legitimacy of other faction’s right to lay claim in the city or the port.

 

Two factions see folks from Gedo as newcomers and see them as aliens in the scheme of clan composition of the city and its surroundings.

 

Within the two factions one claims the city as their own and the other disputes that claim on the basis of demographics and cites district allocation within Kismayo itself as evidence of their argument.

 

Gedo folks on their part acknowledge the claim but strongly cite agreements reached in early nineties when defending the city from Aideed forces were paramount. Because of that agreement – collective ownership – Gedo folks took lion share in the defense of the city and lost many of its men in the process.

 

Other stakeholders including minorities are non-players due to absence of military muscle and willing young fighting men. However their stake as residents of the region is undisputed.

 

Juxtapose the dependency of the port by all sides for their business and to some extent the quality of their lives with federalism vs. central republic debate at national level. If that’s not enough headache add the insecurity neighboring states feel about AS and its constant incursions to their territory to the mix.

 

It is not an easy problem to solve. If one focuses on local conflict and neglect national uneasiness of certain clans getting a huge territory under their territory one may overplay one’s hand and risk a push back that may drag the recent political gains in Mogadishu to the trash pin.

 

The same is true with foreign interest in the regions and overwhelming influence they wield at their disposal. In this case Kenyan’s reassured Ethiopians who were shoring up Gedo folks that the region will be tamed and will not serve separatists interests.

 

So how do you square this circle? Appease Kenyans and their newly found allies and deny other stakeholders’ claim and force them to tow the line? Stir the nationalistic fervor and push Kenyans around? Draw a line and stop flowering clannish fiefdoms at their track and impose dictats from Villa Somalia? Slice and dice the pie and meet all interest groups at half way?

 

I for one favor the latter for now. There is always tomorrow and as we’ve seen things may change for the better.

 

Squaring the circle is not an easy exercise after all.

[xiinfaniin]

Great analysis, Baashi.

[Daqane]

Indeed there is always tommorow lets keep the hystericals at bay i.a

[Somalia]

Apophis;893745 wrote:

Ba bla bla.... everyone should have a piece of pie they have no right to. Stuff and nonsense.

Who determines who has a right to the pie?

[Dhagax-Tuur]

^Really? And who the heck are the crew? Care to name them, too.

[Gabbal]

Baashi-

 

Fairly impartial analysis. However, I take issue with your analysis of the Gedo role. I am not as certain it was your conscious bias as opposed to your subconscious bias. Gedo's position is not limited to having helped defend the city from USC; they are a cornerstone to the town's population demographics and indeed many of the grazing areas of the surrounding countryside as well as in the wider regional framework. What are the odds the shaken Kenyan soldier who opened fire on Somali nomads in Jannay Cadde would strike "Gedo" herdsmen if not an example of the fluid presence of the said community in the expanse of the Jubba Valley?

 

In late 2007, when the city had seen its last fratricidal clan clash for control of the port, this community expelled a union of the two other factions you mentioned. There wasn't the JVA excuse nor was there a perceived support from anyone beyond their community manpower in the area. Conversely, the other two were heavily supported and mobilized by the Yusuf government with an entire mercenery corp that had traveled down with the said man from his native Puntland; a most advantageous position as they could have possibly find themselves in.

 

It is true, the Gedo community is watching the unfolding situation carefuly and has not shown a perceived proactive part of the current entaglement but it is a folly to assume it is as a result of anything but nominal support to the head of government; the Premier. The community is well aware they carry such leverage in any such entanglement, either delegitimizing the administrative formation of IGAD by announcing discernment which gives ammo to the government's position of tribal discord arising from perceived foreign meddling or finding the the administrative formation favorable which builds momentum for the idea of local rule in the context of the Federalist reality in existence today.

 

The storyline has not been sketched yet but when it is, I am certain the Gedo community will find themselves in the most advantageous position of any stakeholder in the administrative formation in progress. In the meantime and with the liberation of Baardheere in pashing out mode; the community will play from behind the velvet glove and organize their betting stakes.

 

Even while in this transitory stage for that community, the Kenyans and Ras Kamboni seem to have already exhausted their political momentum in the town.

 

It is my hope for unity and consensus and good will and a level playing field that is reflective of the existing reality, and slow but surely as the administrative formation enters serious stages, I am confident we will herald that development.

[Beer-Gaal]

Baashi;893440 wrote:

By Inna Kaadi Najaasle

.

warka ina Kaadi Najaasle ha idaayo.

[Waranle_Warrior]

Gabal, you are daydreaming with Gedo clans significant presence in the region, waryaa its undeniable truth that they arrived in the year 2000 with Abdiqasims Arta under the guidance of Sheikh Indhacade. Iyaga dhan waxay dageen meel xiradii milatariga Somalia oo ladhaho xira guulwade. Waa in yaroo kooban oo dhul xaaraan ah walibana. Dhulkaas waxaa iska leh shacabka Somalia waana la iska soo celinaayaa wax reer gooni iska dhisan karaan ma ahan, qofka rabo magalaada inuu dago waa inuu boosaska magalada gataa ma ahan waxa shacabka kadhaxeeyaa inuu si burcadnimo iskaga dhistaa.

 

Do you remember how Indhacade said 'Anagaa geenay anagaana kasaareena' duirng when he was the defense minister of the Islamic courts, how truth was that and how uu uga dhabeeyay inuu kasaaray meesha Barre Hiiraale iyo maleeshiyadisa wixi uu heestana kadhigay wax ladilo iyo wax firxadey Barrena carar uu kugalay Baydhabo, and for the second Alshabaab same thing ee kusameeyeen after ay dowlada meesha kucelisay and they pulled the clan card to take the city again while ciidama dowlada were busy with Mogadishu and weren't concerned with the Jubbooyinka at all. Markaas Barre isagoo carar ah kugalay doolow waliba Ashabaab intee jidka usii galeen xoogaagi uu lacararay kadhigeen wax lafurtay iyo wax ladilay. Markaas maxaa wax iskaaga dhicin waayay if they have significance presence or military musscle. Adeer, the truth is the Gedo clan have no significance in the Jubboyinka and marki horebna were brough by Indhacade, waa xaqiiq. Markaa nabada iyo maamul is good and better than dhiig iyo carar inaad waligaa kujirtid.

[xiinfaniin]

Gabbal is an online phenomenon worth observing; the constant battle between reality vs. perception.

 

Reality: Kismayo as a city and the region overall did not change much demographically. The clan settings of 1990s and prior still hold.

Perception: Gabbal is the dominant group in Kismayo , all other groups and clans have been significantly reduced in influence---according to good Gabbal , no sane person familiar with the region can dispute this . the Hs and Os must practice's Gabbal's courtesy when speaking/discussing the Kismayo affairs ...

[Gabbal]

Xiin-

 

I am not of the habit to dance for the gallery. But there is no such requirement for courtesy, juat honesty. Kismaayo is and will be in the Gedo sphere of influence politically, militarily, and demographically.

[Baashi]

It is something to behold when Far dulbahante, Halimo Cadeey, Hoosingoow, Santaaro all the way Laheloow are declared historical grazing ranges of native folks of Gedo origin No one else in the world could utter such thing except Gabbal and folks inhabiting in his make-belief world of hadaan kooyey Awoowe your taking ku-qabso ku qdi meysid in a whole different level. But it's all good.

 

That said, the region can accommodate millions of nomads of every stripe and color. Come to think of it I intend to open my business there and I am counting on the sizable Qurbo Joog that are coming to settle in the city and its surroundings. Give me one thousand new blood and I'll give you all kind of new small businesses that can employ one up to three folks.

 

Awoowe waan daalay annaga xaafadayada. Nafta na haysa. Waxay naga joogtaa Allow mar yaa salka dhiga oo nabad ku caweeya.

[oba hiloowlow]

LOOL@ Ina Kaadi najaasle

[Somalia]

Currently the position of mayor and head of finance + port authority is of the H-family while O-dawg is head of security and other, and will most certainly settle with the presidency. I think it's the entitlement aura that will in the end cost Gedo a top position in the city because if you look currently they have nothing to batter with, they don't own properties collectively as a group, government buildings are no longer under their control and their top level politicians come under the federal government, which has many times rightfully so been given the cold shoulder by the men who lay hand on the city.

 

Also positions are being distributed pre-1991 as those people own most of the properties in the city and make shift houses are on their way out!

 

Today there are talks that Gedo will come under Bay and Bakool federal state. :eek:

[Gabbal]

Baashir-

 

Inshallah kheyr bay noqon sxb. Ilahay hakuu fududeeyo rajadaas, aamiin.