-community hit by fatal Jubba fever

[Chimera]

Apophis;879168 wrote:

There's no data to support your assertion. And history is not an accurate predictor of future events.

My assertion? Do you even know what I asserted with that gallery in the first place? ----> Progress!

 

- Can Kismayo become a massive port? ---> It was once and so it can be again, after-all it does have panamax infrastructure, I cannot stress how important that is.

 

- Can the farms of the jubba regions be modernised? ---> You could buy 10 tractors and 10 combines and not even break a million dollars. The clans have spend more on weapons and bullets.

 

- Is it possible to have a milk-bottling factory in the region? ---> You can buy one from Ali-baba.com on the cheap.

 

- Is it possible to have a meat-processing factory in the region? ---> If Burco will have one of the largest in East Africa in the next two years, I see no reason why it would take a century for another Somali region to establish one.

 

You see, when I showcase the alternative to this petty qabiilism and break it down like that, its not farfetched at all and certainly doesn't warrant a 'not in this century' comment.

 

Yes, yes it's all great for everyone to be literate but that doesn't translate to economic development. Africa is full of not only literate people but also high calibre graduates yet the continent is still a hell hole. No need to invoke economic principles to deduce this self evident truth.

All of your statements are plain red-herrings. As a unified people we received UNESCO awards for progress, as a divided people we receive pity and mockery.

 

Grasp my point.

 

Even if there was no civil war, the country would have been nothing unique in Africa. (breaking my own rules here).

It was already unique before the war happened, a small sized population that had a massive impact on the continent both culturally, politically and militarily. I can point out plenty of facts to support this, but you would conveniently dismiss them because your entire argument is rooted in 'underestimation' and plain ignorance.

 

You keep using "largest","biggest", this buzz words mean nothing without understanding the numbers. Do you know the numbers? Check here and get back to me >>>

Somalia

What you call 'buzz' words are common terminologies used to denote leaders of a particular industry, and Somalia was a leader of many. Do you understand the numbers? These figures are impressive for a country of 7 million at the time. The fact that Somalia was exporting over 100 thousand tons of bananas in 1989 might seem low to you but when you take into the account the global banana volume was only 8 million, it puts things in persepective. The fact that Somalia exported 1.6 million tons of milk in 1989 might seem nothing to you but when you compare it with the 3.3 million tons of a huge country like China, it again puts things in persepective. This wasn't even my point, what matters is that all of these Somali industries were massive employers, and put food on the table, the banana industry employed more people than any other in East Africa.

 

Jobs and nourishment that is currently absent in the region, which was my original point.

 

Why data invites a comparison with Tunisia?

The data that you provided is sufficient to support my comparison, or are you actually assuming a peaceful Somalia would suffer two decades of 'static' development? Come'on, There wasn't even a big difference in GDP per capita and the populations are similar.

 

Economic "predictions" are slightly better than the ones attained from tarot cards; Economics is not a science though it tries to be. So no I don't take economists' "ifs" and "buts" seriously.

But I should take your convenient 'dismissals' and biased 'authorative language' serious?

 

You're the one comparing Somalia with Asian and North African countries when it's clear any comparison should be with neighbouring counties.

LMAO, and when I did that you started talking about 'comparing yourself with a shoeless beggar' in reference to Africa.

 

Clearly your arguing for argument's sake, but that's okay, i'm tenacious.

 

We never did it before and you're dreaming if you think you can fix an utterly failed state in 5 years. You're dealing in false hope.

Picture 1 and 2 - Panamax ports - Fact 1 - We have three panamax ports that welcomed hundreds of ships and we maintained a large merchant marine.= we did it in the past and we can do it again!.

 

Picture 3 and 4 - Modern farming - Fact 2 - The government constructed multiple barrages, silos, storage facility and modern equipment to the fertile regions, and had green-lit Africa second largest dam = we did it in the past and we can do it again!

 

Picture 5, and 6 - Milk bottling/meat processing plants - Fact 3 - Somalia had dairy factories and exported 1.6 million tons of milk before the war, four times the import demand of a large region like West Africa in that same period. It still exports the most livestock in the world, and before the war constructed some of the largest processing plants in the region = we did in the past and we can do it again!

[Carafaat]

xiinfaniin;878913 wrote:

^^Similar approach was taken in Mogadishu...harbor and airport are out of militia hands . And that magically made both more efficient not mention politically neutral areas .

 

I expect similar strategy to be implemented in Kismayo. That is not to say General Directors of Kismayo airport and harbor are not coming from xiin's clan

:D

 

Xiinoow, Kismayo aniga leh oo ugu badan iyo political neutral area aya laga dhigiyaa isma laha.

ileyn hada adigu leedahay yaa kugu qabsan kara.

[Carafaat]

Haatu;879097 wrote:

lol Carafaat. War the kenyans and the said community just had the same motive: get rid of Al Shabaab. You didn't complain when Beledwene was liberated by the Ethios and then the Shabelle Valley folks were installed, you said nothing when the same happened in Baydhabo, Xudur and others. But when tolka decide to join the bandwagon and seek foreign help to liberate their regions, you start with this nonsense. Go learn how to be impartial before you start this nonsense again. Today Kismaayo is free and the stake holders of Jubbas and Gedo are currently deciding their fate. Intii horumarkan necebna we say

ka naxoo ku naf waa.

Haatu, sxb xumadii ayaa kugu kacday ee isdaji. If I knew some sub clans from Baydhabo or Beletweyn who claim whole provinces or cities

as theirs, I would have commented.

[xiinfaniin]

^^Carafaat you are losing it adeer

 

You have been reduced to a heckler ...look at the superior discussion (both in tone and content) being exchanged above

[Carafaat]

Xiinoow, as usual you are trying to hide behind others. How was this called again this, school girls behaviour. : D

But your statement of 'Kismayo is owned by mine sub clan' is noted and saved. just in case you start to twist and turn, as usual.

[xiinfaniin]

^^Ok Carafaat

[Chimera]

Apophis;879255 wrote:

Only in your mind

Flourishing ports, modern farming and processing factories are a sign of 'progress' only in 'my mind?' Seriously Apophis, with each new post of yours there is a steady erosion in your argument in both content and style, a clear sign of it crumbling.

 

All these things are possible but not in the next 5 years (not even the next 10 in my opinion)and certainly not in the scale your pictures represent. What you showcased will take a century for a country like Somalia.

I already broke down the cost, which is next to nothing. and projected what is needed to achieve this within five years of peace in that region. All you have given me is your usual underestimation of the Somali entrepreneurial spirit that is felt all across Africa.

 

Hate it or love it, qabiilism is part and parcel of the fabric of Somali society and my comment was appropriate.

Its an outdated societal disease, much like direct racism was in 1960s America, but of course Apophis living in 1960s America would tell me 'Hate it or love it, racism is part and parcel of the fabric of American society", because you deem it appropriate as a comment and that's that!

 

While I deem a new mentality that's conducive to progress and meritocracy appropriate.

 

No red herrings, just introducing a dose of reality in your dream filled posts,

Yes, because stating something that would cost less than $100 million to initiate would take Somalia a century to achieve is 'realistic'.

 

Sure.

 

if you don't like it say so and I will stop.

Stop with what, arguments that are intellectually bankrupt? Consider my posts a bail-out.

 

If progress could be attained as you seem to think, Mao wouldn't have had to work to death a sizeable number of his people.

Because Somalia has a population of 1 billion, eh? Nice comparison.

 

Culturally, I will give you that, militarily, I will also accept that (with the understanding that the Somali military depended on foreign powers for materials and training).

I wasn't even referring to military power, but military assistance to other countries, you should take a look at the military history of the country, Somalia spend its own political resources and military assets in making sure multiple African countries achieved total independence from stubborn colonialists, or had their voices heard.

 

But let's not be arrogant and declare our uniqueness; this false hubris has been our Achilles heel.

You confusing 'uniqueness' with 'superiority', but I don't. That Somalia had two of the four most prestigious film festivals in Africa is a sign of uniqueness. That Somalia had a city called the Pearl of the Indian Ocean is a sign of uniqueness. I don't know why you would deny that. To me the likes of Britain and Japan are unique in their respective continents in terms of popular culture and political culture, even if they sometimes overlap with others.

 

Somalia exported little quantity of Bananas

A high-value crop, it employed 120 000 people. No other industry in East Africa employed that many people at the time. Secondly it was on a upwards trajectory. More plantations were to be established and if it kept doubling annually like that for the next twenty years as new markets opened, the country would easily be in the global top 20.

 

and almost exported as much milk as those well known milk producers, China, big deal.

A one million farming community versus a community of hundreds of millions, a big deal indeed.

 

Comparison with next door neighbours not Tunisia or Vietnam

You were the one that begrudge me when I did exactly that and you made the analogy of the 'shoeless beggar' in reference to Africa.

 

Do not think I didn't notice how you conveniently didn't quote that part.

 

All these and yet the country had an export value of a mere 100 million dollars.

Context, context, context. In today's money that would amount to $350 million dollars in exports, contrast that with the trade-volume of today's Ethiopia twenty years later at $1billion, and with a population of 85 million.

 

The issue I have with prewar Somalia is the 'hands-on' approach of the government. That was a mistake. If the major infrastructural assets were manned by government clerks while the rest of the economy was opened up and allowed to mushroom, ''all these'' would have been used to their optimum capacity.

 

Even today the export volume of live-stock at two northern ports is estimated at $2 billion, again contrast that with the export volume of Ethiopia.

 

And by the way, lets remember it took a socialist, military government with a tight control over the country to achieve most of the above in a 20yr time period (1970-1989) so what makes you think the same can be done in 5? What data do you have good sir?

That's incorrect, the socialist government's achievements were strictly in the 1970s, afterwards it became static and succumbed to the disease of clan-nepotism. Hence why I believe if a new government like the one we have today had quickly filled the vacuum, while most of institutions were still intact, we would be in a much better situation today.

 

However, if one looks at the history of the socialist government, the first five years saw the construction of the largest mechanised army in Africa, the construction of major ports, multiple 250-500km highways and roads, major factories and a mass literacy campaign, plus the country was self-sufficient and capable of withstanding droughts by turning farmers in to fishermen.

 

What I highlighted in that gallery can be done in five years, though there will not be as many ships in the Somali ports as the ports I posted, because they are the top seaports in the world, and only substituted as a visual example of progress rather than a direct bench-mark we have to achieve in five years time.

 

With 50% of the world's sea-trade passing by Somalia, the aftermath of reconciliation and peace would allow these ships to dock in Somalia the same way they did in the past and which justified the construction of panamax ports in the first place. It would only take [A] - a good lobbying group to make ties with both foreign and Somali shipping lines, [B] - low ports fees, and [C] - an upgrade of infrastructure that could be done by either China or Turkey. The latter already wants to turn Somalia into a hub of Africa.

 

None of this would amount to 'a century', but could be done within five years of total peace in the country!

[Chimera]

I don't see it as win or lose debate, Apophis, I genuinely wanted you to see a different side of the country and what the Somali people can achieve with peace and a meritocratic system.

[Haatu]

Carafaat;879315 wrote:

Haatu, sxb xumadii ayaa kugu kacday ee isdaji.

If I knew some sub clans from Baydhabo or Beletweyn who claim whole provinces or cities

as theirs, I would have commented.

Nobody said Kismaayo reer Hebel baa leh. It belongs to all Somalis. All we're saying is give the locals of the region the right to discuss their future like people in other parts of the country are doing. That's it. The days of warlords are over sxb.

[Mario B]

Apophis;879421 wrote:

^^So like you to reply on a Friday night

; you win (for now).

SubhanaAllah! Has Apophis conceded the argument? This calls for a celebration.

 

[xiinfaniin]

^^I would rather quit and concede like you hinted few posts above : D

 

Chimera is armed with facts , overwhelming data---add his innocence and you would realize how difficult it is to beat the man

[Faarax-Brawn]

WWhat about the Gaal-Jec-e-l people? do they "own" Kismayo? as well?- I ran into one of them the other day and he was quite, adamant about how their once stolen land, will now be in their hands.(whatever the heck that means).

 

Somalis!

[The Zack]

^nope...the same reason they dont own Hiiraan

[Faarax-Brawn]

The Zack;879470 wrote:

^nope...the same reason they dont own Hiiraan

L0L. So, they dont own anywhere? and i have heard some folks say,and claim that they are indeed "top three largest sub clans of the somalis"- .

[GaraadMon]

I'm happy with some of the progress being made now. Most want a quick fix (the oil fanaticism is a great example), but I'm willing to become part of a 'lost' generation that never gets to fully experience the fruits of their labour. Then again, I'm typing from a computer in Canada, so I might be a bit biased.