Africa's economic development has not been accelerated by urbanisation

[Mario B]

Economic growth has led to rising incomes in Asia, but that trend has not been repeated in the cities of sub-Saharan African

 

The mood surrounding African economic development has improved greatly in the past few years. This is good news. It seems to indicate that the "lost decades" for sub-Saharan African countries of the 1980s and 1990s – when output was sometimes shrinking and welfare indices worsening – are behind us.

 

However, there are caveats. In most fast-developing economies outside sub-Saharan Africa, particularly in Asia, a major reason for rising incomes is new economic activity in towns: the development is largely an urban phenomenon. Industrialisation is a key element in much of Asia. Exports may include primary commodities, but manufactured products increasingly form part of the mix. The urban-located production of these sorts of goods has been a key reason for the rise in urban incomes in countries like China and Vietnam. In sub-Saharan Africa, the picture is very different.

 

It is often claimed Africa has the world's fastest growing urban populations and is urbanising faster than anywhere else. The first point is true, but the second is a myth. Fertility in Africa is higher than elsewhere in the world, and towns have tended to be home to lot of young people in their childbearing years. As a result, natural increase rates in towns – the excess of births over deaths – have been high. For decades, population growth in many of sub-Saharan Africa's main towns has been caused largely by this high natural increase, rather than migration. Because birth rates are higher than in Asia or Latin America, the towns grow faster. However, if urbanisation is to occur, the proportion of people living in towns has to increase, which usually involves significant long-term migration into urban settlements. When the estimated increase in the percentage share of the urban population in many Asian countries over the past decade is compared with that for African countries, usually the Asian countries turn out to be urbanising fastest.

 

Why is this? The answer lies mainly in the differences in urban economies. Theories about modernisation and development have assumed that cities and urbanisation were necessary accompaniments to positive economic change. It was in towns, with their dense networks of people, that innovations would occur and economies of scale in production would be realised. Urban economies, it was assumed, would involve industrialisation that generated other types of activities including commerce and services via backward and forward linkages. Workers in towns produced goods with more added value than rural people. In 2009, the World Development Report from the World Bank emphasised all these positive aspects of urbanisation and promoted towns as developmental. However, while many Asian cities exhibited all these sorts of economic changes, which created millions of new jobs in formal sector enterprises, in sub-Saharan Africa urban economies have been struggling.

 

In a world where the harsh rules of comparative advantage, policed by the World Trade Organisation, have been increasingly dictating who can produce what and where, African cities have fared poorly. European and North American cities have lost some industrial jobs to Asia because of this, but Africa's experience has been disastrous. While Africa can compete on wages, many towns cannot compete on other factors influencing investment choices by footloose industrialists. A key issue is infrastructure, particularly reliable electricity: anyone who has spent time in African cities, not excluding South African cities on occasions, has experienced the power going off for long periods of time. Another is educated labour: decades of regional austerity measures enforced by international financial institutions have undermined education outcomes in sub-Saharan Africa. The result has been de-industrialisation on a major scale, and the loss of hundreds of thousands of formal sector jobs in countries where industrialisation had been in its infancy.

 

In towns across Africa, the outcome of past austerity programmes and trade liberalisation has been the mass informalisation of economies and livelihoods. The majority of urban residents work in informal enterprises and many are self-employed petty traders. This is work, and very hard work, but it too rarely generates a reasonable income. Despite all the excitement generated about the growth of middle classes in Africa, any objective look at the Africa Development Bank's income data from which this stems shows that in most sub-Saharan African countries, the proportion of people on anything like a realistic middle-class income remains tiny.

 

This brings us back to the issue of urbanisation. Recent censuses in many large mainland countries indicate this has slowed. In part, this is because migrants to towns have been struggling to establish livelihoods and many move on, or back to rural areas. Cities are not as attractive as they used to be. Growth in GDP is often generated largely by natural resources: agriculture, minerals, forestry. The impact on urban incomes and job creation is far less than the significant industrialisation in Asian cities. One sobering statistic demonstrates the huge difference in the urban experience of these two regions: Vietnam exports more light manufacturing goods than the whole of sub-Saharan Africa.

 

• Dr Deborah Potts is reader in human geography, Cities Research Group, King's College London

 

http://www.guardian.co.uk/global-development/poverty-matters/2012/oct/04/africa-economic-growth-not-accelerated-urbanisation?intcmp=122

[Mario B]

Vietnam exports more light manufacturing goods than the whole of sub-Saharan Africa.

:eek:

[Mario B]

Apophis;876994 wrote:

TL;DR:

The field of economics isn't so different to astrology.

So what part of this article are you disputing?:rolleyes:

[GaraadMon]

Question: What's urbanization without industrialization?

 

Answer: Africa.

[DoctorKenney]

There doesn't exist anything close to a manufacturing base in Africa. The main reason why countries like Botswana and Angola have grown so quickly is because of the high price of diamonds and oil. That's it. We've got a long way to go

[Mario B]

DoctorKenney;877060 wrote:

There doesn't exist anything close to a manufacturing base in Africa. The main reason why countries like Botswana and Angola have grown so quickly is because of the high price of diamonds and oil. That's it. We've got a long way to go

The problem with the Africans is that they lead a subsistence life whether in urban areas or rural ones.

[Raamsade]

I've said it before and it's worth repeating that Africa will always be weak, poor and marginalized untill they establish strong manufacturing base. Manufacturing is the lynchpin of all economically robust states today. Every developed country went through industralization even tiny countries like Israel have strong industrial base - they can manufacture just about anything. Most of Africa's raw resources are exported without further processing which is where the real money is anways. Just about every raw resource for manufatured goods is found in Africa.

 

But I don't like Westerners and their morose analysis of Africa. If they're not claiming Africans are droping like flies from AIDS it is Malaria or flavour of the month killer disease. If it is not about famines it is about ethnic cleansing and wars.

[Mario B]

Vietnam exports more light manufacturing goods than the whole of sub-Saharan Africa.

:eek::eek::eek:

[AfricaOwn]

Raamsade;877350 wrote:

I've said it before and it's worth repeating that Africa will always be weak, poor and marginalized untill they establish strong manufacturing base. Manufacturing is the lynchpin of all economically robust states today. Every developed country went through industralization even tiny countries like Israel have strong industrial base - they can manufacture just about anything. .

And when they try to make something happen is mostly through wholly owned subsidiaries ....Its a vicious cycle.

[Tallaabo]

Blackflash;877056 wrote:

Question: What's urbanization without industrialization?

 

Answer: Africa.

So true;)

[warsamaale]

So those cookie cutter explanations for the stages of development don't work for Africa ?. i was reading about Malaysia and S.E asian nations being stuck in middle income mediocrity and likelihood of them staying there indefinitely. Those who emphasize culture and innate abilities have been vindicated once again. chimera should take note.

[Haatu]

The problem i most African countries is that to manufactur cheap goods, you need cheap energy, good roads so you can get your goods to port quickly, and a quick and efficient port management. These things are vital for manufacturing, especially the first one. How can you run a factory in a country where there are regular blackouts? Also, another problem they have is a lack of access to markets due to overseas protectionism. This could be overcome by creating genuine African trade blocs but the political will seems to be lacking somewhat (e.g. Tanzania and the EAC).

[warsamaale]

Totally wrong, those are the cliched responses offered by the so called WB and the IMF experts. "where there is will there is a way", people create industries allover the world but complain later about those unfavorable conditions you just mentioned. i think the answer is simple

[Haatu]

Warsamaale, pray do tell, how are you to run your factory when the electricity is gone for most of the day? Use expensive generators? Then cost of your goods will have to increase to cover the additional cost and when competing with cheap chinese goods, this results in financial disaster.

[warsamaale]

Let me put it for you this way. SSA could have the best conditions: full electricity, best ports, best roads, and a good regulatory environment. Yet, still sub-Saharan Africa would be un-industralized. somethings are just innate to the people and can't be changed and not all human beings on this planet will have the same talents. some facts are just not comfortable and the liberal media won't tell them honestly