The Somaliland-Somalia Talks: Myths vs Reality

[Mintid Farayar]

Lately there's been renewed threads from the usual corners regarding the impossibility of Somaliland going its own separate way. What's peculiar about these arguments is the assumption that the question of Somaliland recognition is primarily in the hands of the South.

 

 

The major impediments to Somaliland's recognition are regional powers and international organizations opposed to a new Somali state cropping up in the Horn of Africa. These range in contrast from the Egyptian obsession with recreating a militaristic, unitary Somali state used as a pressure point to prevent Ethiopia from implementing its NIle dam projects to UN agencies losing their control of significant portions of the 'defacto' Somali national budget. Given this reality, the last stake holders to be consulted on the Somaliland issue (or any other Somali issue, including the direction of their own political fates) are the political actors within the South. These same Southern stakeholders (from Puntland to the TFG, Galmudug to ASWJ) were ordered/mandated to draw up a 'Roadmap', write a 'Constitution' while being sheperded by an internationally appointed legal team (who did the bulk of the constitutional framing), given the termination dates for their current government, appointed their election dates, etc., etc. The whole process was externally driven, as opposed to an organic process indigenously crafted by the Somali stakeholders.

 

 

So the question remains: How is it possible for those who are not even allowed to determine their own political direction and the implementation dates of their political actions (the world's only officially declared failed state) to be in a position to decide on the fate of Somaliland? This supposition is simply a concoction held in the egos of a frustrated diaspora.

 

 

The international community, observing the tension present among the regional powers, divided between those diametrically opposed to a Somaliland state and those sympathetic to the Somaliland cause, chose the path of least resistance - force a dialogue between Somaliland and Somalia on their future relations. This created a great deal of turmoil and resistance in the Somaliland political scene. To overcome this, extensive 'diplomatic pressure' was brought to bear on Somaliland political actors in order to bring them to the negotiating table. This could be observed through the changing positions of the key political actors(major parties and well-known politicians) as the ground work was laid for the first meeting to take place in London.

 

 

To bring back to present circumstances, it was in the context of this previous narrative that the newly elected TFG President's initial speech and interviews were intriguing. President Hassan Sh. Mohamoud stressed the continuation of the Somaliland/Somalia talks as one of the priorities of his new, yet to be formed administration. What made this statement so curious/unusual was his choice of words: Hassan Sh. Mohamoud stated that neither 'military pressure' nor 'diplomatic pressure' would be used to bring Somaliland into the fold of the Somali Republic. Now any observer or analyst understands that a TFG that's still unable to protect its members from assasination on the streets of the capital it calls home (or pay the salaries of its own administrative staff and security forces) is realisticly unable to exert military pressure 50 km away, let alone militarily threaten Somaliland or any other entity in the former Somali Republic. Rather, it was the negation of 'diplomatic pressure' as a tool by this current TFG President that was seen as an extended olive branch by the Somaliland political class.

 

 

Whether this change in attitude in Villa Somalia is implemented in practice remains to be seen. However, one must keep in perspective the actualities on the ground in analyzing the potential outcomes of the Somaliland/Somalia talks. To measure the fortitude and negotiating power of each side, one must look at what's at stake. Politicians, universally, are primarily concerned with keeping 'the seat'/incumbency. Would a Somaliland administration that nullified Somaliland's sovereignty realistically stay in power in Hargeisa? Would a TFG administration that dissolved the territorial unity of the old Somali Republic survive in Mogadishu? Both would be unpleasant for either administration and would face resistance from regions each administration nominally represents. But which would be the more impossible for the respective administration to survive given its seat of power (in either Hargeisa or Mogadishu)? The answer to that question provides a quick glimpse into the future of these talks...

[xiinfaniin]

So the question remains: How is it possible for those who are not even allowed to determine their own political direction and the implementation dates of their political actions (the world's only officially declared failed state) to be in a position to decide on the fate of Somaliland? This supposition is simply a concoction held in the egos of a frustrated diaspora.

 

 

You wouldn't ask this question, had you known that your entity is amongst 'those who are not even allowed to determine their own political direction' . . And that simple fact, my friend, makes your differentiation between Somalia and Somaliland an attempt of a distinction without a real difference.

[Mintid Farayar]

xiinfaniin;873837 wrote:

So the question remains: How is it possible for those who are not even allowed to determine their own political direction and the implementation dates of their political actions (the world's only officially declared failed state) to be in a position to decide on the fate of Somaliland? This supposition is simply a concoction held in the egos of a frustrated diaspora.

 

 

You wouldn't ask this question, had you known that your entity is amongst '

those who are not even allowed to determine their own political direction

' .

. And that simple fact, my friend, makes your differentiation between Somalia and Somaliland an attempt of a distinction without a real difference.

 

Your point being that both the TFG and Somaliland are in the same predicament of 'having little say or influence on sovereign Somali affairs'? Did I paraphrase your argument correctly?

[xiinfaniin]

^^My point is no matter how hard you try to run from us the world around you sees you as one of us.

[Taleexi]

Mintid Farayar:

 

No question about it. "SL" has made commendable strides to be a self-governed, and self-contained entity for more than 2 long decades. However, its seek of an elusive, unattainable and unjust recognition makes the whole experimentation a futile exercise. The political direction of the clan enclave is on the wrong footing nevertheless, its strengths include: the admin's institutions are relatively more mature when compared to other clan states, this is an opportunity that it can exploit it further if her leaders desire the common good and play their cards wisely and within the Federal Government Structure of Somalia. Apparently, given the nature of Somali social fabric, every Somali clan can not, will not be a separate state, International community are not idi-ots. In addition, special committees shall be assigned to address your clan's debatable grievances ones and for all. And the Somali family can stay together for good.

 

Finally, let us be realistic in here. Most Somalis foes or friend alike welcome the talks between "SL" and Somalia. But remember "SL" will be forced to represent only the SNM-clan, no more, and no less therefore you don't have to entertain the idea that all communities in the north are in unison insofar their political association is concerned.

[Mintid Farayar]

Taleexi,

 

I understand your sentiments and your vantage point. While I do not agree with all you've stated, I respect your right to feel thus.

 

However, the purpose was not to rehash the pro vs. anti-Somaliland talking points but rather to illuminate how the talks were mandated by the 'international community'. Secondly, to refute the premise often stated on these boards that this was a Somali-driven initiative. Rather, it was externally driven 'diplomatic pressure' that brought both parties to the talks.

 

The final point was to point out the intriguing choice of words by the new President in Mogadishu in how his administration will handle future talks. Also, not mentioned in my post, is the reality that these talks have fallen exclusively under the purview of the TFG Presidency rather than the Prime Minister's office and are expected to continue in that tradition.

 

Finally, we must remember that the draft statement drafted by the 'international community' in London clearly stated:

 

"The Conference recognised the need for the international community to support any dialogue that Somaliland and the TFG or its replacement may agree to establish in order to clarify their future relations.

 

In diplomacy, the choice of words is critical! The above statement takes no prejudicial position on the question of sovereignty, as much as others attempt to dress up the situation to their 'tinted' viewpoint.

 

This is where the situation stands at present - I was merely pointing it out in the midst of deafening misinformation....

[Mintid Farayar]

Mintid Farayar;873507 wrote:

These range in contrast from the Egyptian obsession with recreating a militaristic, unitary Somali state used as a pressure point to prevent Ethiopia from implementing its NIle dam projects to UN agencies losing their control of significant portions of the 'defacto' Somali national budget.

Not to be outdone by the likes of the Ethiopia, Kenya, Djibouti, Uganda, and Turkey, Egypt makes another attempt to enter the new 'Somalia game'. As mentioned previously in my post, Egypt is, primarily, concerned with creating a strong, militaristic bulwark against Ethiopia.

 

----------------------------------------

 

 

 

Morsy offers to train Somali army

 

Hend Kortam / September 27, 2012

 

President Mohamed Morsy said Egypt could train the Somali army and coast guards in a speech at a United Nations summit on Somalia, Wednesday.

 

 

Morsy asserted Egypt’s “full support for Somalia in all fields and its continuous contribution towards human development.” He added Egypt is willing to train members of the Somali army, as well as coast guards, and welcomes “concerned international parties to participate in this.”

 

Morsy said the war-torn country faced many challenges, including regaining territory from extremist groups, so regional and international players should show support for the Somali government and people.

 

The reason behind the conflict in Somalia, according to Egypt’s premier, was a profound misunderstanding of the teachings of Islam, with people choosing extremism and militancy over tolerance. He added you cannot fight extremism through force; you have to counter it by spreading the real teachings of Islam.

 

Morsy expressed his appreciation for efforts made by the African Union’s mission in Somalia (AMISOM). AMISOM and the Transitional Federal Government (TFG) of Somalia have been working together to regain territories seized by the Al-Qaeda-affiliated Al-Shabab militants. The TFG’s mandate ended in August, following which, the first permanent federal government in Somalia since 1991 was set up and a new president elected.

 

http://dailynewsegypt.com/2012/09/27/morsy-offers-to-train-somali-army/

[Xaaji Xunjuf]

The Egyptians and their motives are very clear you're assessment was correct Mintid the Egyptians have one objective is to stop Ethiopia building dams along the Nile river. But Egypt since the Mubarak government lost its power as a regional power everything Gamaal built through out those years was thrown in the bin by the Mubarak regime. All former agreements are now about to be re negotiated and the question is can Egypt deliver in 2012 regarding the Nile with south sudan now being a member of Nile Basin Initiative. Somalia is not going to fight an Egyptian war Somalia is tired of wars they want peace and stability in their country.

[Mario B]

xiinfaniin;874181 wrote:

^^My point is no matter how hard you try to run from us the world around you sees you as one of us.

[Xaaji Xunjuf]

But the end of the day its not the world that Somalia has to deal with but it has to deal with Somaliland

[Mintid Farayar]

d/p

[Xaaji Xunjuf]