Alshabaab back in kismayo with thousands of troops

[Wadani]

Apophis;871495 wrote:

Even the Muslim ones?

lol, I see your Somali isn't very strong. Naarahaa laga waaraabin doonaa waxaan uga jeeda barbaarta will teach em a lesson, not that i'm rooting for them or anything.

[oba hiloowlow]

The military offensive by Kenyan and Ethiopian forces against Islamic al-Shabaab fighters is gearing up for an assault on the Indian Ocean port of Kismayo that's increasingly seen as a key element in a brewing dispute over oil and natural gas.

 

Kismayo, in southern Somalia near the Kenyan border, is al-Shabaab's most important base, through which it gets its supply of weapons and much of its revenue.

 

But the strategic value of the city, one of Somalia's three deep-water ports, has swelled in recent months because of the huge oil and gas discoveries off East Africa.

 

Kenya made its first big strike in March and the discoveries, all the way south to Mozambique, are piling up. Even South Africa is undertaking major seismic testing, hoping to join the region's growing energy boom.

 

The oil and gas strikes, including some in neighboring Ethiopia, a U.S. ally that's played a prominent role in the 6-year-old war against the Somali Islamists, have raised the strategic context of the conflict to a new level.

 

On July 6, the Western-backed Transitional Federal Government in Mogadishu, Somalia's war-battered capital, accused neighboring Kenya of illegally awarding offshore oil and gas exploration rights to leading European oil companies in waters claimed by Somalia.

 

Eni of Italy got three blocks and Total of France got one.

 

Kenya and Ethiopia, encouraged by the United States, deployed armored columns into Somalia from the south and west in late 2011 to aid the beleaguered TFG crush the Islamists. In recent months, they have pushed al-Shabaab into a southwestern pocket, with Kismayo as its main stronghold.

 

The dispute over the four exploration blocks is likely to complicate the stampede of oil companies into a region that over the last year or so has become one of the world's hottest energy prospects.

 

Analyst Jen Alic, reporting for energy Web site OilPrice.com, observed July 15 that Kenya's timing "will be viewed as suspicious in Somalia ...

 

"It's plausible that Kenya was hoping that its very successful assistance in pushing al-Shabaab out of Mogadishu and a number of other key bases and strongholds would give it carte blanche to act on oil exploration in contested coastal waters."

 

It's a tricky situation that goes beyond the legal aspects on ownership of these waters.

 

"Kenya's involvement in southern Somalia was designed to gain the upper hand on offshore oil block concessions that rightfully belong to Somalia as stipulated in the 1982 U.N. Law of the Seas convention," said Abdillahi Mohamud, director of the East African Energy Forum.

 

That's an international lobby group that seeks to protect Somalia's energy assets from being exploited by other states.

 

The forum estimates that impoverished Somalia, ravaged by clan warfare since the dictatorship of Siad Mohammed Barre was toppled in 1992, has offshore and onshore oil reserves of 80 billion-100 billion barrels.

 

"This small nation of 10 million stands to have the fifth largest petroleum reserves in the world, eclipsing heavyweights like the United Arab Emirates, Kuwait and Nigeria," Mohamud noted.

 

That may well be an overly optimistic estimation. But there's little doubt that the volume of oil and natural gas in the region is vast.

 

The recoverable gas reserves found off Tanzania and Mozambique since 2010 are estimated to total 100 trillion cubic feet. Exploration companies say the true figure may be more than double that.

 

The U.S. Geological Survey says East Africa's waters hold more than 440 tcf of recoverable gas reserves, which will transform the region into one of the world's leading gas exporters, primarily to energy-hungry Asia.

 

The danger is, of course, that the oil and gas strikes off Somalia will end up fueling the Somali conflict, if they haven't already, and possibly even widening it as regional powers vie with each other to control the energy riches.

 

This could apply to other East African states as well. Ethiopia, for instance, is considered to be sitting on considerable energy reserves.

 

These looks set to inflame a long-running insurgency against the brutal regime of Prime Minister Meles Zenawi, who took power in 1991 and who is now reported to be in poor health.

[oba hiloowlow]

qofkii caqli leh sheekada meesha ay uu socotoo fahma dad baa aaminsan kenya buffertzone ay sameynee oo dalkeedi amaankeeda ku xaqiijineyso thats bullshit 3geeska badda ay rabaan iney Gaadaan ee people principles hadaad leedahiin walahi bilahi in laga horjeesto waa 3geeskaas is the fifth largest petroleum reserves in the world, wax fahma

[NGONGE]

^^ Don't think that's what he's saying.

 

Oba,

Ok. Lets assume everyone joins Al Shabab in fighting Kenya. What next? How would Somalia get to benefit from this supposed oil that you're patriotically defending here?

[oba hiloowlow]

Ngonge my brother im not saying anybody to join Al shabaab but i'm worried about kenya's intention ,as we know the only reason they are risking their lifes is because of the natural gas and oil ma beena laysku sheega?

[oba hiloowlow]

Apo thats not what i mean.. dib uu akhri the article and my response..

[NGONGE]

oba hiloowlow;871719 wrote:

Ngonge my brother im not saying anybody to join Al shabaab but i'm worried about kenya's intention ,as we know the only reason they are risking their lifes is because of the natural gas and oil ma beena laysku sheega?

Maya maad sheegin. However, if you want to get a working Somali back, you need to defeat Al Shabab first. Today, you have no choice but to rely on Kenya. Tomorrow, you can (hopefully) kick them out.

[oba hiloowlow]

Walahi Ngonge its a big Dilemma its like Choosing between Aids and Cancer nacalaa shaklaa

[NGONGE]

^^ Chemotherapy helps curing cancer, lets get rid of the AIDS first.

[oba hiloowlow]

lool not when its too late. but i see your point

[General Duke]

^^^Oba, the Kenyans are no worse than the Ugandans & AMISOM that secured Mogadishu. The fear of a Juba region independent of Mogadishu clans is one thing and I undertsand your fear so lets be honest.

[oba hiloowlow]

General i dont see evrything in a clannistic point of view as many in here do.

[Wadani]

Apophis;871706 wrote:

You were and are still rooting for this filthy group. What makes you think they're able to defeat the KDF and Somali alliance? Just because the KDF hasn't been in war before makes you doubt their capability and training? In my view, shabab ba "Naarahaa laga waaraabin doonaa" because they have no heavy weapons, effective training, air cover and most importantly, the numbers and casualty evacuation/ treatment. Hit and run, they maybe good at but not open warfare.

You're either a shameless liar or your mistaking me with someone else. No one despises shabaab more than I do. Predicting the probable outcome of a looming battle based on objective analysis has no correlation wat so ever with who I support in this war.

[Maaddeey]

^ Akhas!

 

'nin aqdaama ferenjiga...' comes to mind.

[Maaddeey]

^ what happened?. Ayaantaan Kismaayo iyo kistaa iyo karbuunadaa aan ku mashquulsanaa?.

 

 

ps. Xalay in tfg ****** madaafiic ku garaaceen xaafadaha qaar baa i soo gaartay