National conversation changing in Somaliland

[Abtigiis]

In fact, according to a very well connected veteran former SNM fund-raiser, only about 30% off the major clan in Somaliland are crazy about secession. Now, before you lynch me, that is what these insiders say not what I fabricate.

 

Anyway, the somalia-Somaliland talks can only take the following shape and stages:

 

Stage 1: SL insists on two-state solution (somaliland Indepedence). Somalia says no and the international community affrims the inviolability of Somalia's unity.

 

Stage 2: SL realises that it can not seek secession and tables a demand for Confederation format. This too is rejected by Somalia because Somaliland is not a UN recognised country and Confederation is between two soverign entities who agree to come togather

 

Stage 3: SL accepts the Federal System but insists the British Somaliland regions to be treated as one Federal unit. It is a fair request but then Awdal and Khaatumo may seek their own Federal status now that the British Somaliland identity is punctured.

 

Scenario 4: Somaliland lives with the federal system but there will be 3 fedral states in the north and about 5 in the south.

 

Scenario 5: SL leaders from the majority clan refuse to accept Stage 3 and shun alll approachs by Somalia and the international community and ready themselves for a war if it comes to that. This is unlikely to happen. Wars are not fought simply because a politician wants them but there has to be an element of oppression that the people who are supposed to rise up experience. In the absence of any attack from Somalia, the major clan in SL will see no point in rallying behind a war cry. The call for arms will then fall on deaf ears after a while. With other communities already getting in touch with Mogadishu, it will be hard to sustain a unilateral independence status.

 

Conclusion: SL must negotiate a fair deal as soon as possible, Time is not on its side. Of course, all of this is assuming the south is finally out of the woods politically and stability-wise.

[Xaaji Xunjuf]

And the dreams of some continues after almost 22 years.

 

It went from Somaliland doesn't exist we will not talk to Somaliland never ever

To Somaliland is a little province that will be brought back by force

Somaliland will break in clan states and the Govt in Somalia will support such clan states

We will ignore Somaliland and it will self destruct

Somalilanders will fight over power after their elections results.

 

its always a small group in Somalia that is always fixated on Somaliland when ever something positives happens in Somalia. They try to link that to Somaliland in a negative perspective.

[burahadeer]

and moreova the ones who refuse somalia to settle down...destroyed the nation and sustained its demise since then...fighting from kismayo to Gode all the way to Buhodle...almost every region including mogadishu!

 

international community:D..the only hope alive hahahahahaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaa

 

Will the international community let ONLF be independent jajajajajajajajajaja

 

 

And the south don't trust you either Mr.abtigiis....Just don't get in the first trench,they might shoot you at the back:D

[Mintid Farayar]

Xaaji Xunjuf;868637 wrote:

And the dreams of some continues after almost 22 years.

 

It went from Somaliland doesn't exist we will not talk to Somaliland never ever

To Somaliland is a little province that will be brought back by force

Somaliland will break in clan states and the Govt in Somalia will support such clan states

We will ignore Somaliland and it will self destruct

Somalilanders will fight over power after their elections results.

 

its always a small group

in Somalia that is always

fixated on Somaliland

when ever something positives happens in Somalia. They try to link that to Somaliland in a negative perspective.

Oodweyne was the first to coin the term, 'the defeated lot'. Another term was 'riding on borrowed muscles', which is how he described the tactics of this group.

 

I'll let you fill in the blanks....

[Abtigiis]

burahadeer;868638 wrote:

international community:D..the only hope alive hahahahahaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaa

You are deriding the mention of international community?? I thought your request for recognition is addressed to the 'international community' and not to Sado Cali, Abtigiis, Axmed Madoobe or Maaddeey. So, in that sense, it matters to you more than the south.

 

Mintid, "borrowed muscles" is not invented by Oodweyne. Unless you are developing the Maaddeey malady of bililiqo.

[Xaaji Xunjuf]

The defeated lot always end up being defeated.

 

The cv of the defeated lot the clanish WSLF who were defeated by the Ethnic Somalilanders in Galbeed in the early 80s

The siad bare government was defeated by Somalilanders and the armed faction in Somalia called USC

The Ethiopian forces and Cabdilahi Yusuf were defeated in 2009 Politically and Military definitely borrowed muscles

The defeated lot are now riding on top of Kikuyo tanks in the hope to liberate villages in the lower juba:D

 

Alaylahee wa Xiiniyo la so amaahday:D

[Mintid Farayar]

Abtigiis;868645 wrote:

You are deriding the mention of international community?? I thought your request for recognition is addressed to the 'international community' and not to Sado Cali, Abtigiis, Axmed Madoobe or Maaddeey. So, in that sense, it matters to you more than the south.

 

Mintid, "borrowed muscles" is not invented by Oodweyne. Unless you are developing the Maaddeey malady of bililiqo.

 

What about 'defeated lot', saxiib?

[burahadeer]

You are deriding the mention of international community?? I thought your request for recognition is addressed to the 'international community' and not to Sado Cali, Abtigiis, Axmed Madoobe or Maaddeey. So, in that sense, it matters to you more than the south.

 

 

 

we proved we could sustain ourselves with or without Int'l community.If recognition comes fine if not fine...we r much better off than one we were under the bloody thirsty group between 60 to 90.It's not interchangable no matter what.

Your case thou is one of asking muscle from Int'l community to reach your sinister goal....true you succeeded bringing thm in many times but to no avail.Give you 5***** for manipulating Int'l community into believing you doing some worthwhile.

THE GROUND RULES.

 

Just wondering why all that steam not directed at Int'l community to make onlf independent.:confused:

[STOIC]

In all your scenarios all you are saying basically is that Somaliland is going to loose whether they like it or not as long as they don't act quickly now. It doesn't matter what they been building the last twenty years.It doesn't matter the priorities and the hopes they been working on for so long.Should Somaliland refuse to meet the demands of Somalia their only option is to gird for war (which the people are NOT ready for).Ain't that the merest whimsy hypothesis? To de-legitimize Somaliland all you need to do is evoke Awadal (which are happy with the Silanyo authority ) and Khatumo folks? Hmm all I will say is forget the Somaliland under the bed for now there is Al-shabab in the attic and Somalia is not out of the woods yet.

[Carafaat]

Abtigiis;868634 wrote:

In fact, according to a very well connected veteran former SNM fund-raiser, only about 30% off the major clan in Somaliland are crazy about secession. Now, before you lynch me, that is what these insiders say not what I fabricate.

 

Anyway, the somalia-Somaliland talks can only take the following shape and stages:

 

Stage 1: SL insists on two-state solution (somaliland Indepedence). Somalia says no and the international community affrims the inviolability of Somalia's unity.

 

Stage 2: SL realises that it can not seek secession and tables a demand for Confederation format. This too is rejected by Somalia because Somaliland is not a UN recognised country and Confederation is between two soverign entities who agree to come togather

 

Stage 3: SL accepts the Federal System but insists the British Somaliland regions to be treated as one Federal unit. It is a fair request but then Awdal and Khaatumo may seek their own Federal status now that the British Somaliland identity is punctured.

 

Scenario 4: Somaliland lives with the federal system but there will be 3 fedral states in the north and about 5 in the south.

 

Scenario 5: SL leaders from the majority clan refuse to accept Stage 3 and shun alll approachs by Somalia and the international community and ready themselves for a war if it comes to that. This is unlikely to happen. Wars are not fought simply because a politician wants them but there has to be an element of oppression that the people who are supposed to rise up experience. In the absence of any attack from Somalia, the major clan in SL will see no point in rallying behind a war cry. The call for arms will then fall on deaf ears after a while. With other communities already getting in touch with Mogadishu, it will be hard to sustain a unilateral independence status.

 

Conclusion: SL must negotiate a fair deal as soon as possible, Time is not on its side. Of course, all of this is assuming the south is finally out of the woods politically and stability-wise.

Naga daa dee. waxani waa wishful thinking. dad ba habeenkii ku riyoda .

 

1. You are entertaining yourself with the idea that clan=governance.

 

2. How else would you compare a democratic governance system with full fledged institutions with not one but 5 phantom States in Somalia.

 

3. Who will benefit from breaking up a goverment in 3 pieces, only to united later with 8 other pieces. Governance is about capability, who would want to divide capability and authority?

 

4.Belgium, Serbia and Montenegro, former Union of Sudan and South Sudan are all examples of Confederations. Of which non are int souvereign recongnized as independent States. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Confederation

 

5. You assume Federalism will become the norm in Somalia. If you read the constitution, you would know Parliament has the authority if and which regions will form States. Lets wait if the new Parliament is convinced of the fact that several regions wll become States. The new Parliament is filled with anti-federalist.

 

6. Somaliland is the last thing on the mind of Somalia's leaders. And if Somalia would have the capacity to wage war, I think it would wage a war against Al Shabaab, against ASWJ secte, against Faroole, against Kenyan funded Azanians, against pirates, against thieves who occupu people's land, against Xabashi's entering border towns, against illegal fishers, etc.

 

7. You say Somaliland should make haste and negoitiate a fair deal. While one could also say, Somalia's goverment should negoitiate a deal while Siilanyo still is in office. And before the boy/girl born in 1988, who is 24 years old take over and become the leaders of Somaliland. I can assure you those boys and girls will be more difficult to talk to, then a Siilanyo who remembers the good old days of a strong Somalia.

 

8. Sxb, you know as I do where the current negoitiaten and the future of Somaliland and Somalia is heading to. Marka waxba ha is indhatirin.

[Abtigiis]

STOIC;868672 wrote:

In all your scenarios all you are saying basically is that Somaliland is going to loose whether they like it or not as long as they don't act quickly now. ....Should Somaliland refuse to meet the demands of Somalia their only option is to gird for war (which the people are NOT ready for).Ain't that the merest whimsy hypothesis? .

Sadly that seems where it is headed. this is a positive analysis of how it could be or will be not a normative how it should be.

 

It doesn't matter what they been building the last twenty years.It doesn't matter the priorities and the hopes they been working on for so long.

What has this got to do with SL's status within Somalia. Surely the progress and peace will go on. Don't know why schools would be closed because SL joined somalia.

 

Carafaat, I will respond to your questions in detail tomorrow. But to accept clan as a reality in the south and put clan under the carpet in the north just because it is peaceful on this side is not correct. The rise of the south will undoubtedly create clan rivalries in the north as the interests of clans diverge. I don't know why people don't want to realize that. And if that happens, the dominant clan cannot hold the others at gunpoint. I just think the secession project is untenable. Its success rested on a continued mayhem in the south and if we accept the assumption the south wis coming back, then it is easy to see why clan tensions in SL will escalate. Aagain, it is not what I wish for SL, it is what i think will happen.

 

In few years time, the uninformed stoic will understand what I am saying now.

[Xaaji Xunjuf]

Well lets keep this topic in the archives in a few years time we can know for sure if Abtigiis predictions are true or not i think they are not since Somalilanders majority of them are united in their quest for statehood. Also how do you think in a few years time the various clan states in Somalia will be unfolding since Somalia is officially now known as a federal republic. Somalia in the next coming years will be busy building federal states, since the only federal state we have right now is Puntland and the rest of the country is either under Alshabaab or is under the authority of the aswj allied to Amisom and the Somali govt troops.

[burahadeer]

Abtigiis...Sometimes, you know you're lying to yourself but the inner voice that's goading you to deceive yourself screams more loudly.

 

 

he is dwelling on our feeding.

 

Look at this...in the new parliament somalilanders were given 40mps out of 280

the population of SL is almost 4million, so the south shoud be 28million

They believe Merca and kismayo are closer or even bigger than hargeisa and burao:D

I understand there r misinformed and unsuspecting individuals who digested so much disinformation but what astonishes me is how willingly widespread the deception is.

so much for somalinimo.

 

Warya we see where your lot is heading with this since yesterday.....armed confrontation done by others for you.

Maybe that's blessing in disguise so we can stabilize the front.

[Carafaat]

Abtigiis, neither in South nor Somaliland would have benefit from clan based maamuls. You assume a disintegration of clans in Somaliland(3 States) and a integration of clans in Somalia(the 5 States). war Somali waa isku mid. Clan based maamuls dont work. Why else would Jubbaland and Azania work now together to create one maamul. Or would Ximan and Xeeb talk about a merger with ASWJ, Galmudug, etc.

[Tallaabo]

Quebec had a referendum to separate from Canada and the international community was willing to accept them. Scotland will hold a referendum in about two years to decide whether they still want to be part of the UK or be independent and again the international community will accept whichever decision the Scots make. So Mr Abtigiis, what makes you think the international community will act any differently when it comes to the break up of a poor African country? The international community bows to the demands of only strong countries not an entity on a life support system in an intensive care unit.