Why is this so?

[somalee]

The president and the prime minister of Somalia must either be from sub-clans X or clan Y. Now we already know the president is from sub-clan X, it's most likely the prime minister is gonna be from sub-clan Y. What if someone from sub-clan Z is picked up to be the prime minister? Just a question.

A friend tells me picking up someone from sub-clan Z or A, B, C,D,E,F,G,H,I,J,K,L,M,N,O,P,Q,R,S,T,U,V,W or prime ministers from A1,B2,C3 clans will not go well with the sub-clan Y members. This doesn't make sense at all. When did the X,Y domination of Somalia begin and why?!

Having said that, I don't really care where the next prime minister comes from as long as he does his job well but it sort of worries me that since I belong to sub-clan G8, my chances of either becoming a president or a PM are very slim. In fact non-existent

[Shinbir Majabe]

Don't worry, after 4 years waa dhamaanaysaa 4.5, waxaa bilaabanaya goboleysi, marka gobolkaaga ayaa lagaa soo dooranayaa..

[General Duke]

After 4 years if this government does the senses, there no longer will be clan based formula and will be based on multi parties and popularity. We might get a President from the clans that are considered to be minorities..

[somalee]

Shinbir Majabe;868073 wrote:

Don't worry, after 4 years waa dhamaanaysaa 4.5, waxaa bilaabanaya goboleysi, marka gobolkaaga ayaa lagaa soo dooranayaa..

Thanks for the kind words Shinbir. Who chose sub-clan Y to represent all other sub-clans, and why must the posts of president and PM ALWAYS be shared amongst these 2 sub-clans? The 4.5 can still work if many other sub-clans are chosen? Why only Y and X?

[Xaaji Xunjuf]

Its 4.5 the 3 top seats in Somalia is most likely always shared by the 3 major clans in Somalia if one is the President he cant be the Prime Minister this formula existed before the 4.5 back than it wasn't official now its official so nothing will change really.

[somalee]

General Duke;868078 wrote:

After 4 years if this government does the senses, there no longer will be clan based formula and will be based on multi parties and popularity. We might get a President from the clans that are considered to be minorities..

The thing here is even with the current clan formula, what is happening in Somalia is unfair and partial. It's predictable now what the sub-clan of the next PM is gonna be. There are men who can do the job and still fulfill the 4.5 criteria but won't be chosen because they're neither from X or Y....

[somalee]

Xaaji Xunjuf;868085 wrote:

Its 4.5 the 3 top seats in Somalia is most likely always shared by the 3 major clans in Somalia if one is the President he cant be the Prime Minister this formula existed before the 4.5 back than it wasn't official now its official so nothing will change really.

Then one would assume that any member of the 3 ''major clans'' can either be president or PM. What we have here is a situation where not all sub-clan members from the so called major clans are equal. There's a domination of certain sub-clans and I was wondering what the reason of this is.

[Shinbir Majabe]

somalee;868081 wrote:

Thanks for the kind word Shinbir. Who chose sub-clan Y to represent all other sub-clans, and why must the posts of president and PM ALWAYS be shared amongst these 2 sub-clans? The 4.5 can still work if many other sub-clans are chosen? Why only Y and X?

PM can be chosen from any clan except the President clan.. 4.5 sidaas ayaa loola jeedaa, laakiin waxaa caado noqotay in 2sub-clans ay mar walbo qaataan the President and PM posts.. waxaana u sabab ah iney kaga firfircoon yihiin other clans dhanka siyaasadda.

[Xaaji Xunjuf]

Shinbir Majabe;868094 wrote:

PM can be chosen from any clan except the President clan.. 4.5 sidaas ayaa loola jeedaa, laakiin waxaa caado noqotay in 2sub-clans ay mar walbo qaataan the President and PM posts.. waxaana u sabab ah iney kaga firfircoon yihiin other clans dhanka siyaasadda.

pm cannot be from the Bay and Bakool regions since jawaari is from those regions the parliament speaker.

He will most likely be from Puntland or gedo

[Shinbir Majabe]

^^ Correct.. but also PM wuxuu ka imaan karaa Somaliland or beesha Dhirta.

[Xaaji Xunjuf]

^^ Unlikely but it can happen but its unlikely.

[General Duke]

somalee;868093 wrote:

Then one would assume that any member of the 3 ''major clans'' can either be president or PM. What we have here is a situation where not all sub-clan members from the so called major clans are equal. There's a domination of certain sub-clans and I was wondering what the reason of this is.

There are alliances that have formed between certain sub clans across the broader clan lines. There was an alliance between Upper Shabelle clan and those of Puntland, since Abdirashid & Adan cade’s time.

Siyad Barre had an alliance between his clan and those of Afmadow, las Canood. In the war period there was a clan alliance between Guricee [Abdiqasin] and Abudwaag [ Barre Hiiraale] to dominate Kismayu and so on.

The RRA movement was allied to Abdullahi Yusuf’s SSDF against the USC. The SNM was allied to the USC at times. There are also broad clan alliances, for example Djibouti pushes for an alliance between certain regional clans and so on.

Also alliance are made between candidates in an election, a candidate will support one for the presidency and the other would get the PM, this happened with Abdiqasin & Galayr in 2000, however such alliance seldom last long. Since 2004 Abdullahi appointed PM from a specific clan in order to help pacify Mogadishu, at that time it did not seem to be working but today that clan which was on the periphery of power at the time has now shown its clout in this most recent election fielding 3 out of the last 4 candidates.

The sub clans from Puntland have always been successful in modern Somali history in taking the top positions and have always been on the minds of the powers that be at any given time. Their clout has grown over the past decade since they have been successful in projecting their power in all transitional administrations and with the formation of the Puntland State.

However with time, there will be changes and there will be more inter clan alliances and fluidity as time progresses.