Can expatriate Somalis rebuild their country?

[burahadeer]

move on...certainly you don't care about evidence

[burahadeer]

Abu-Salman;864837 wrote:

 

PS: Burahaader, I'd guessed that 1.2 millions indirectly with the circumstantial data; it may have doubled within 10 years or quadrupled since 1996 (I'm into that period).

what people don't realize is peace has brought extraordinary number of marriages & a high birth rate.Many people coming back from neighboring countries...not so much from west.

 

PEACE means more children and average per family is 8 to 10

[Jacpher]

Yeah Somaliland has 12 million and Burahadeer counted each and everyone of them with his bare fingers.

[Abu-Salman]

I'm not sure those usual high number of children may be sustained by the more affluent in Hargeysa or those marrying lately (many leaving for exodus or study abroad).

I somehow can not fully picture them as those born (way) before 88-91, the recent arrivals in town or those underprivileged.

They share more characteristics with jabuuti, seen as role model, their late marriage and birth controls.

[burahadeer]

@Jacpher......Let us unite hahahaaaaaa!!!!!! everything thru the lenses of clan.:confused:

 

 

waar iga taga....

[GaraadMon]

Chimera;864815 wrote:

This is neutralised by the high birth rate, and large back migrations. The math really doesn't tell you what you need to know, because there is scholarly evidence from the 1980s that puts the population of Hargeisa at the 250k mark and growing. The city back then was much smaller than it is today:

 

The Hargeisa urban centre has a population of approximately 250,000, and it is one of the fastest growing towns in Somalia.

-

Horn of Africa: Volume 4 - 1981

 

There is no reason to conveniently dismiss the various census/surveys taken before the war because of perceived nepotism, especially in the case of Hargeisa, where it would have been in the interest of the dictator to portray it as small little backwater rather than the fast growing 2nd city of Somalia. I don't have to defend Mogadishu, the city with its grid system plan has been estimated to have a population above the 1 million since the 80s, and during the Islamic courts union was estimated to be well over two million.

 

It's strange, yesterday we had a discussion about the 'big family households' in Somalia, and now we are playing 'where is waldo' with the city/town population sizes of that same country. Yes in Mogadishu there are more five people+ households than in Hong Kong, and sizing up maps (not covering the whole city) won't give you a perfect indicator of the density, so the point is moot.

Hong Kong has 7,896 highrises. High rises are defined as being at least 11 stories tall. I'll admit that the number of persons per household can play large role but considering the lack of high rises in Hargeisa, do honestly believe that there are enough people crammed in to each home to justify the numbers?

 

I think we'll have to adjourn from this argument as it's clear we'll hold differing views until there is further evidence.

 

I'll leave you with these two photos to give you an idea of why I can't take these numbers at face value:

 

 

[Jacpher]

^Both Hargeysa and Hong Kong start with H, both have human race, both on planet earth, therefore, the number must be true.

[Chimera]

Blackflash;864859 wrote:

Hong Kong has 7,896 highrises. High rises are defined as being at least 11 stories tall. I'll admit that the number of persons per household can play large role but considering the lack of high rises in Hargeisa, do honestly believe that there are enough people crammed in to each home to justify the numbers?

 

I think we'll have to adjourn from this argument as it's clear we'll hold differing views until there is further evidence.

 

I'll leave you with these two photos to give you an idea of why I can't take these numbers at face value:

 

 

Let's do it this way, since you love math. There are between 150-200,000 households in Hargeisa, the average household has 7-8 members. If we take the low estimate: 150k x 7 = 1050000, if we take the high estimate; 200k x 8 = 1.6 million. In both cases the city has surpassed the million mark. Your image of a Hargeisa suburb is amusing brother, take this image instead, from the foreground all the way to the entire horizon is covered with large sized houses, villas and small appartments and even then the city hasn't been captured in its entirety:

 

Residential

 

Business area

 

Hospitality area

[GaraadMon]

Chimera;864879 wrote:

Let's do it this way, since you love math.

There are between 150-200,000 households in Hargeisa

, the average household has 7-8 members.

Before I reply in full, I just need to if that's a personal estimate or if you recovered that info from a primary source (census, survey etc.).

[Chimera]

Blackflash;864888 wrote:

Before I reply in full, I just need to if that's a personal estimate or if you recovered that info from a primary source (census, survey etc.).

I don't do personal estimates, my posts are always based on a source or a study:

 

In Hargeisa, there are about 150-200,000 households -- Ministry of National Planning and Development

[GaraadMon]

Chimera;864892 wrote:

I don't do personal estimates, my posts are always based on a source or a study:

 

In Hargeisa, there are about 150-200,000 households

--

Ministry of National Planning and Development

. Each sack weighs 15‐20 Kg. In Hargeisa, there are about 150‐200,000 households

consuming about 9,188 tons of charcoal a month or around 110,000 tons a year. Assuming an

average tree produces 150Kg(7‐10 bags) of charcoal, 735,000 trees are cut every year to satisfy

current demand for charcoal in Hargeisa. Charcoal trade is a big business.

That document doen't cite any sources for most of it's numbers. That may be connected to the fact that it also outlines household surveys in the future as part of the development plan. Also, aren't we coming full circle? I'm arguing against the population claim made by the Somaliland government and all you've done re-assert their claim.

[Chimera]

Come'on Blackflash, ''doesn't cite any sources'', are you serious? They are the authorative body in that city and region, they employ economists, survey-men, and factor in the data collected by energy companies, money transfer firms and telecom companies, all of which are credited. What gives you the right to delegitimise their figures on the populations they are governing? What surveys have you conducted, what data have you collected on the ground for us to be convinced? That map-program doesn't cut it.

 

Have you even read the document fully? This is a development plan based on their monotary policies for the future. A smaller population would actually benefit them because then the money they collect from taxes would stretch alot further.

[GaraadMon]

Chimera;864896 wrote:

Come'on Blackflash, ''doesn't cite any sources'', are you serious? They are the authorative body in that city and region, they employ economists, survey-men, and factor in the data collected by energy, money transfer and telecom companies, all of which are credited. What gives you the right to delegitimise their figures on the populations they are governing? What surveys have you conducted, what data have collected for us to be convinced? That map-program doesn't cut it.

 

Have you even read the document? This is a development plan based on their monotary policies for the future. A smaller population would exactly benefit them because then the money they collect from taxes would stretch alot further.

That's not how it works, if you read any official proposal or document from the Canadian government it'll make reference to Stats Can as well as the specific study/survey done. Stats Can will even detail the dates, methodology and scale of the research study. A government agency can just throw out numbers with out concrete evidence and request a funding for their projects.

 

Example:Dwelling characteristics and household equipment

 

They even cite their own research within their studies.

 

I didn't make the initial claim of the population numbers, the Somaliland government did. They've provided little reference for their claims and I have every right to question them as my hometown is under their governance.

 

They've done well by indicating future plans for a survey, but until then I'll take that as being an admission that they've been pulling stats out of their ***.

[Chimera]

Blackflash;864898 wrote:

That's not how it works, if you read any official proposal or document from the Canadian government it'll make reference to Stats Can as well as the specific study/survey done. Stats Can will even detail the dates, methodology and scale of the research study. A government agency can just throw out numbers with out concrete evidence and request a funding for their projects.

 

Example:

Dwelling characteristics and household equipment

 

They even cite their own research within their studies.

 

I didn't make the initial claim of the population numbers, the Somaliland government did. They've provided little reference for their claims and I have every right to question them as my hometown is under their governance.

 

They've done well by indicating future plans for a survey, but until then I'll take that as being an admission that they've been pulling stats out of their ***.

Why would they do that, especially considering its in reference to an unflattery situation like deforestation and the charcoal trade. You can't compare Canada which probably has more independent 'fact-finding' institutions than the whole of Africa, of course such a Western government wouldn't need to employ its own people directly and can link to sources instead. However in this case, we know independent orgs are non-existent, and the work was done by government officials, just because the data isn't available to us civilians doesn't mean it doesn't exist:

 

I would like to express unreserved gratitude to the NDP team at my Ministry for the sleepless

nights they endured to have this Plan researched, developed and written up. I would like to

mention in particular the Macro‐Economic Management Office (MEMO) head and team Leader

Dr. Hassen Ibrahim Worseme, Dr.Elmi Mahmoud Nur, econometrics expert, Mr. Ahmed Gazali,

public investment program expert, Mrs. Kaltun Sh. Hassan, gender expert, Mr. Abdirahman

Ahmed Mohamed, macro‐economic expert, Mr. Ali Aideed Farah, social policy expert, Mr.

Ahmed Mohamed Diriye, M&E Expert, Mr. Said Jama, Aid Coordination Expert, Mr. Ahmed

Abdillahi Nadif, Planning Department Director, and Ms. Hana Mohamed Hersi, Economist. I

would also like to thank Mr. Ahmed Dalal Farah, the former Director General, Mr. Abdirashid

Mohamed Guleed, the Director General and Mr. Osman Jama Abdillahi, Director of Admin and

Finance, for their support.***

 

Are their qualifications just for show? Is this development nothing but a sideshow? Come'on.

[GaraadMon]

Chimera;864901 wrote:

Why would they do that, especially considering its in reference to an unflattery situation like deforestation and the charcoal trade. You can't compare Canada which probably has more independent 'fact-finding' institutions than the whole of Africa, of course such a Western government wouldn't need to employ its own people directly and can link to sources instead. However in this case, we know independent orgs are non-existent, and the work was done by government officials, just because the data isn't available to us civilians doesn't mean it doesn't exist:

 

I would like to express unreserved gratitude to the

NDP team

at my Ministry for the sleepless

nights they endured to have this Plan

researched, developed and written up

. I would like to

mention in particular the Macro‐Economic Management Office (MEMO) head and team Leader

Dr. Hassen Ibrahim Worseme, Dr.Elmi Mahmoud Nur, econometrics expert, Mr. Ahmed Gazali,

public investment program expert, Mrs. Kaltun Sh. Hassan, gender expert, Mr. Abdirahman

Ahmed Mohamed, macro‐economic expert, Mr. Ali Aideed Farah, social policy expert, Mr.

Ahmed Mohamed Diriye, M&E Expert, Mr. Said Jama, Aid Coordination Expert, Mr. Ahmed

Abdillahi Nadif, Planning Department Director, and Ms. Hana Mohamed Hersi, Economist. I

would also like to thank Mr. Ahmed Dalal Farah, the former Director General, Mr. Abdirashid

Mohamed Guleed, the Director General and Mr. Osman Jama Abdillahi, Director of Admin and

Finance, for their support.***

 

Are their qualifications just for show? Is this development nothing but a sideshow? Come'on.

Qualifications mean squat when you don't reference your sources. The fact that several of them have completed doctoral studies should should have stressed the importance of citing one's work. There's a reason why you can't get away with it in school, and my pessimism in regards to this document is one of them.