Sharif sakiin and the Kenyans.

[Xaaji Xunjuf]

[Mintid Farayar]

The Kenyans are firmly behind Abdiweli in the presidential quest. Sharif Ahmed has shown himself against Kenyan interests with his previous objections against Kenya's plans for a Jubba/Azania buffer zone. We'll see how it plays out.

[Xaaji Xunjuf]

Its true the Kenyans support abdiweli for President because Sh sharif was against the buffer zone in the juba regions and the Kenyan involvement. And Sharif sakin wants to return in the government as a influential minister there are some sources also saying sharif sakin wants to create a mamuul goboleed for the bay and bakool regions.

[Mintid Farayar]

So far, as reported by international analysts following the Mogadishu competition:

 

Abdiweli supported by Kenya

 

Sharif Ahmed supported by Turkey, Qatar, and Uganda.

 

Both the U.S. and Ethiopia have not publicly played their hand yet.

[Xaaji Xunjuf]

True but if we have to acknowledge the support sh sharif is getting from the Turks who are very much involved in Somalia the same with Yoweri museveni with all his troops in Somalia. I believe these two countries are much more influential than Kenya when it comes to Somalia. The Ethiopians are still busy organizing the burial of their dead leader. We still have to wait Hailemariam Desalegn the Ethiopian prime minister to endorse one of the candidates he will do it after the burial of zanawi.

[Mintid Farayar]

Xaaji Xunjuf;862929 wrote:

True but if we have to acknowledge the support sh sharif is getting from the Turks who are very much involved in Somalia the same with Yoweri museveni with all his troops in Somalia. I believe these two countries are much more influential than Kenya when it comes to Somalia. The Ethiopians are still busy organizing the burial of their dead leader. We still have to wait Hailemariam Desalegn the Ethiopian prime minister to endorse one of the candidates he will do it after the burial of zanawi.

The Ethiopians would never openly back a candidate given their awareness of traditional Somali antipathy to Ethiopia. They will do it behind the scenes and if their pick does not prevail, set up mini-territories controlled by allied militias within Somalia (the usual Ethiopian proxy battle). How much the current leadership transition in Addis distracts from their agenda in Somalia is yet to be seen.

 

Museveni is influential given the large AMISOM contingent he's providing and the fact that their security is most affected by Sharif's constituency makes an alliance with Sharif natural. The Turks, I feel, are punching above their weight and don't yet have enough hard power in the region to make the significant difference they seek. Plus, they faced opposition from the West in their past propositions for the Somali quagmire. They've strongly lobbied in the past for the inclusion of elements of Al Shabaab into the reconciliation process - but this was vetoed by the combined diplomatic power of the West(primarily the U.S. and the E.U.). Their influence could be increased by the new parliament, which according to many, is even more filled with Islamist diaspora than the previous one.

 

It's the U.S. with its huge investment in both military and intelligence resources that's the wild card. Which U.S. Federal agency/department gets to lead the Somalia portfolio will determine which side the U.S. supports....

 

But at the end, Somalis could ultimately end up frustrating the best laid plans of foreigners

[The Zack]

How about Somaliland? Which candidate does it prefer?

[Xaaji Xunjuf]

The Ethiopians might have already picked a candidate they will not make it public but they will pick some one who they think they can work with. But do not underestimate the Turks since 2011 they are very much involved remember the Istanbul conference that was a real breakthrough for the turks and their involvement in Somalia they are now on the ground in Somalia building roads hospitals giving scholarships etc.

 

The state department for some odd reason i think they prefer sh sharif since they can work with him if they wanted him out they would've got rid of him long time ago they extended his mandate twice. Nor do they want to interrupt the peace reconciliation process in Somalia.

 

The Zack no one in particular but i know President geele of Djibouti supports sharif. But the Somaliland government doesn't support any one in particular to lead Somalia.

[Carafaat]

Ethiopia, Kenya and Ugandese will support any candicate that further divides Somalia's in to political fiefdoms(Read federalism).