Gratulerer Mohamed Osman Jawari!

[xiinfaniin]

NGONGE got good questions but misses the biggest change of all: that the political events in Mogadishu today signify one important change that has never taken place in the last 21 years, the end of transition. That is what gives hope for many of us, in your secessionist mind it is equivalent of that elusive recognition that you have been chasing for the last twenty or so years.

 

If you agree with the analogy, you will also agree the answers to many of the questions you raised become quite moot in the face of sweeping state powers that come with regaining the legitimacy we lacked (even if it was attributed to us by name). Cynicism is good and necessary at times but yours has a sinister twist to it, NGONGE. It is quite peculiar, isn't it, that the fall of Lasanod or the election of an enclave leader constitute a sustainable change in your mind while the wheels of progress in Mogadishu where world powers and leaders are showing real interest and support do not mean much to you.

 

AMISOM, Puntland and your beloved Somaliland will be rendered mechanics of the bigger caravan--- mere commas in Somalia's civil history chapters-- when the change that's underway truly materialize.

 

And no, I am not yet jubilant. But I will sure be once the process of ending the transition comes to fruition in the form of electing speaker, and president.

[ElPunto]

Hehe at the way Ngonge inoculated himself from criticism with the LA/SL sustainable change point.

 

Utlimately the sustainable change here is that governance is returning and being accepted by Somalis rather than violence and winner take all attitude of the past that resulted in nothing. The first go round of this process was entirely managed by outsiders and the govt built and based outside the country. This current process was owned more by Somalis and many new faces have joined the fray though outside interference was a potent force. With further rounds - it will be the established that a process, whatever its flaws, will be the way that issues are resolved in Somalia.

[NGONGE]

^^ Dee ma waxaad niyada o sheegtaan mise waa waxa meeshan jira?

 

Xiin, it's because you think that such questions are "moot" that I have no hope for you, saaxib. Waxba ii maad sheegin dee. It's all wishes and dreams. Where is the meat?

 

ElPunto, did governance not "return" when Abdullahi Yusuf came to Somali's capital? The argument then was that Villa Somalia was finally in Somali hands and that everything was nice and rosy. What happened next?

 

Trusting your fate to a creaky system in the hands of men we all already know about is foolish, saaxib. You need to be asking the questions about the end of this transition and what it entails. In the past few weeks, I've gone on about the Afghanistan and Iraq examples and kept on reminding you of how their end of transition didn't end the troubles or problems in those countries. How in the world do you expect Somalia to do any better when the "intellectuals" of that country (as A&T calls them) are clutching crystal balls?

 

Naga daaya dee.

[Tillamook]

Ngonge, it wasn't merely an argument back then but genuine progress when President Yusuf moved the newly formed TFG from Mbagathi to Baidoa and then straight into the eye of the storm--Villa Somalia, where he laid the foundation of the new Somali republic. Ever since then Somalis have come a long way under difficult circumstances in fixing their broken country. Alot has been achieved and we have much much more to do to set our nation aright, but it will take time. Remember Rome was not built in a single day.

[xiinfaniin]

NGONGE,

 

The significance of ending Somalia's transition seems to be eluding you. Somalia is a small country with tiny population. Your analogy to Iraq or Afghanistan is therefore false. Unlike Iraq or Afghanistan, Somalia's troubles are not deeply geopolitical or sectarian. Clan animosity, piracy and alshabaab extremism are quite manageable (and can easily overcome as it is happening today) provided Somalia gets the diplomatic attention (to move desperate, weary neighbors to the right direction) , and the resources required (to rebuild the country). There are signs that both are forthcoming. The fact elections are held in Mogadishu, and diverse candidates from different clans (Somaliland, Puntland, Central regions etc) are vying for the top position shows that Somalia has indeed come a long way. Since the eruption of the civil war, I could not recall any moment that is analogous to what is happening today. Even the much praised Islamic Courts represented an isolated progress in Mogadishu, and did not reflect the kind of broad based political framework that is underway today.

 

We have a constitution, a new, educated parliament (a vast improvement from the warlords invested one that just got replaced), and the election of a new president is only weeks away. All major stakeholders are in agreement of the direction the country is going (alshabaab is of course a notable exception). The political uncertainty that overshadowed every initiative (what is in it for me to surrender my power!!!) is effectively clarified. Federalism has become the bases on which our civil is ended. Somalia will get a chance to vote down the 4.5 formula , revisit the federalism clause, and chart/solidify current/new approach come 5 years.

 

Of course AMISOM is crucial to sustain the peace, Somaliland will still be there , and so will Puntland. But as peace takes hold, Mogadishu revives, so will Somalia. And in keeping with our much cherished culture, significant portion of politically inclined elites will migrate to where the grass is greener :D

 

What is not to like awoowe!!

 

http://www.hiiraan.com/op4/2012/aug/25731/somalia_s_new_federal_parliament_the_challenges_ahead.aspx

[NGONGE]

^^ The clouds are clearing, the sky is blue and the birds are once again chirping. Now put your violin down and give me some real analysis.

 

Tilamook, I think you're having an entirely different argument there. Carry on, this wasn't my point.

[xiinfaniin]

^^Well, if you buy half of the cheerful picture I offered there, I will tell my self that I made a dent on your cynical shield

[NGONGE]

^^ Never mind. It's not a new problem.

[Daqane]

I am happy, students are learning, people are rebuilding, institutions are evolving leave this cassandra to his analysis paralysis...

 

Me ama gonna swim in the deep blue ocean, mayn, all me a need is lido beach, beautiful girl smelling of uunsi, some jelato, me fam living in their land and bam me be a okay mayn

[Tillamook]

^

 

We are of the same mind...

 

NGONGE;862337 wrote:

Tilamook, I think you're having an entirely different argument there. Carry on, this wasn't my point.

I pursue no argument here... I realize things are not easy in Somalia, but like Aristotle said "bring your desires down to your present means. Increase them only when your increased means permit".

 

Thus Xiin is in the right here, your cynicism is "moot"!

[ElPunto]

NGONGE;862248 wrote:

^^ElPunto, did governance not "return" when Abdullahi Yusuf came to Somali's capital? The argument then was that Villa Somalia was finally in Somali hands and that everything was nice and rosy. What happened next?

 

Trusting your fate to a creaky system in the hands of men we all already know about is foolish, saaxib. You need to be asking the questions about the end of this transition and what it entails. In the past few weeks, I've gone on about the Afghanistan and Iraq examples and kept on reminding you of how their end of transition didn't end the troubles or problems in those countries. How in the world do you expect Somalia to do any better when the "intellectuals" of that country (as A&T calls them) are clutching crystal balls?

 

Naga daaya dee.

No - governance didn't return with A/Y - it was more like an implanted thing that was rejected by the host. Hence the aftermath. What we have this time is broad based acceptance of and participation in the governance project. The infant is beginning to crawl and with practice will soon stand up. 'Trusting our fate to a creaky system in the hands of men we already know'- creaky? I think that is being worked out as we speak and with significant international pressure. As to the men in the system - you yourself acknowledge your reservations about Silaanyo - and citizens have reservations about many leaders in the developing world - it doesn't mean the machinery of government even with those folks at the helm isn't vital to moving a coutnry forward.

 

What about the transition and what it may entail seems most pressing to you? The Iraq/Afghanistan examples don't seem relevant to me apart from all 3 countries being places where there was vacuum of governance. In Iraq/Afghanistan you have a static political process with Maliki and Karzai clinging to power at all costs and important constituencies sidelined or marginalized. And the security problems are reinforcing that political disarray. For all its faults the political process in Somalia isn't static - we have new faces and ways of doing things - and there seems to be an understanding by all the players that no one man or constituency can dictate to the others. The process also includes all constituencies through the hated 4.5 system. Where there will be an issue is implementing a federal system and the division of powers.

 

The other key thing apart from the politics is security. It actually seems to be improving in Somalia and with more confidence an participation in governance - it should get better. Iraq/Afg aren't in the same place.

 

You haven't given me specific points here that make you feel pessimistic - apart from generic statments about the problematic transition in Iraq/Afg. I'm not sure there is anything else. I do wonder whether given your viewpoint you are emotionally ready to accept that the south has turned the corner even when presented with the evidence.

[xiinfaniin]

ElPunto;862378 wrote:

... I do wonder whether given your viewpoint you are emotionally ready to accept that the south has turned the corner even when presented with the evidence.

Aren't you the clever one, Elpunto

 

One looks forward to NGONGE's response to this profound observation .

[Positive]

NGONGE ,

 

You have progressed ahead of me but if I may add my two cents in here.

 

Many of the points you raised are valid still a reader would conclude that your pieces in this thread paint despair, doom and gloom about the future of Somalia. It seems that you feel that Somalia is broken and beyond repair in the foreseeable future.

 

I mean you could empower us by offering positive analyses or at least show exit strategy from these seemingly intractable challenges in Somalia.

 

Now in analytic terms we have to remember that we, Somalis, have fallen from the grace of nationhood; as you rightly said it is the clannish mindset of our people that has brought the nationhood down and truly it is that same mindset that is hindrance to reconstitute the nation-state now in a qualitative way. Regardless of whether Somaliland is independent or part of Somalia the problem is the same because clan mentality can not co-exists with national identity as the two are antithesis. The gatekeepers of the nation demand credentials of national identity from those who wish to belong to the nation; but alas that is why many of us are wandering outside because we hold on into clan identity and loyalty to tribes.

 

But you would agree that lately Somalia has been taking baby steps towards re-emergence of the Republic of Somalia: a well known idiom says ' a long walk begins with one step'.

 

That is what Somalia is doing now: taking baby steps to reconstitute the nationhood; it is my view that like raindrops which accumulate into streams, rivers and lakes so will these baby steps in Somalia in time accumulate into qualitative and quantitative systems of government; and eventually peace, social emancipation and prosperity may be restored.

 

As you know there is no hurry in the scheme of Life.

 

That is why I applaud now when a learned figure is nominated as the Speaker of the Somali Parliament because this potentially strengthens the administrative capability of the house and eventually overall administrative health of the National Institutions of Somalia.

 

 

The Awakener2

[NGONGE]

El Punto,

 

I gave you everything you need if you were receptive to a proper debate but you chose to ignore it and dismiss the comparisons with Iraq or Afghanistan. You say Karazi & Maliki are clinging to power but where did these two men come from? Were they not the result of the end of transition in both those countries? Do Iraq and Afghanistan not have various groups that are fighting for power? Did the West not impose Karazi & Maliki on them as one of the steps for an eventual withdrawal? What is there that you can’t compare to Somalia, saaxib?

As for your wondering about my emotional acceptance of change in the south, that’s just you running out of things to say and playing the man instead of the ball (my blue flag is gathering dust under the bed).

 

 

Positive,

 

Don’t get distracted by the ebb and flow of this discussion, saaxib. Follow the wave from its source (Xiin’s query about my cynicism) and you will see that contrary to what you understood, I do not believe Somalia to be dead (not just yet).

 

I am not sharing anything new here by the way. I remember having a similar discussion with a Nomad in here in a thread with the title “Quotable Quotes” back when Abdullahi Yusuf was residing in Villa Somalia (sadly, the move to this new style forum seems to have purged most of those topics). At any rate, I also remember having a similar discussion with Nur when he was trying to tell us that the Islamic Courts were the best thing since the Sayid rode a crazy horse.

 

Yes, the systems put in place are encouraging. The elections give one hope that Somalia may finally turn the corner. The involvement of the International Community adds to that hope. However, hope alone does not justify the crazy ululations that Xiin and the Nomads above are displaying here. We have had joyful celebrations before, we fell for the demagogical dreams of the scoundrels before and we believed that Somalia has turned a corner before. Yet, here we are, again, getting all excited over “window dressing”.

 

Do I believe that Somalia is broken or beyond repair? No, I don’t. However, I believe that Somali public opinion needs to change and that rogues like Xiin, El Punto and many others should not be allowed to take the masses on yet another merry go round.

I have no problem with all the cliches and sound bites about Rome not being built in a day or long walks starting with one step, etc. However, I believe that step should be one of reflection and deliberation.

 

Think of a village with no light or fire, saaxib. Now imagine that the people of that village have managed to convince a neighbouring village to lend them a lit candle. They send a collection of their young men to get them the candle but, on the way back, the candle is accidently (or deliberately) blown off. The village sends another group of young men to light the candle, but on the way back it is again blown off. Now, after the third, fourth or fifteenth time do you think the people of the village will still entrust the candle to the boys without asking questions, giving suggestions and even making threats that should this “final” candle gets blown off on the way there will be consequences and retributions?

 

How about if it were your own house and you sent your brothers (or sons) to fix a broken toilet? How many times need they get it wrong before you begin to question the entire process and demand satisfactory answers in advance?

 

I fully doubt Siilaanyo and don’t trust a single word he says (my default position with all politicians) but I do not doubt the consensus of Somaliland. I believe that neither Siilaanyo nor his rivals can break the country because the people will not allow them. The clannish tension and mistrust is the same but the total belief in the system isn’t. There is the rub.

 

Here, it is the people that should be insisting that regardless of the winners or losers of these elections nobody should be allowed to disturb the new system or allow Somalia to remain in its current state. It is the excitable Xiin’s that should be asking about the steps that will be taken to ensure that post transition Somalia is going to be different to what we have now. But Xiin (following the steps of those in power, including the “educated” new speaker) is running around with happiness shouting “shamcad baa na loo wada”.

 

It is only by asking the questions and showing that they are paying attention to the details (rather than the promises) that the people will force the politicians to watch their backs and ensure that post transition Somalia will prosper (despite the clannish burdens). Ma balan uun ba la idiin qaadaya?

[ElPunto]

^Rogue - moi?

 

 

NGONGE;862512 wrote:

El Punto,

 

I gave you everything you need if you were receptive to a proper debate but you chose to ignore it and dismiss the comparisons with Iraq or Afghanistan. You say Karazi & Maliki are clinging to power but where did these two men come from? Were they not the result of the end of transition in both those countries? Do Iraq and Afghanistan not have various groups that are fighting for power? Did the West not impose Karazi & Maliki on them as one of the steps for an eventual withdrawal? What is there that you can’t compare to Somalia, saaxib?

As for your wondering about my emotional acceptance of change in the south, that’s just you running out of things to say and playing the man instead of the ball (my blue flag is gathering dust under the bed).

 

?

I didn't dismiss the comparisons out of hand - I tried to show how they didn't apply to Somalia's situation at present. To my mind - 2 issues matter here - politics and security. Karzai and Maliki are clinging to power - this is not the case in Somalia's TFG. From A/Y to Gheedi, Sh Sharif and Nur Caade and many others etc. And we may well have new faces this time around. For me - unlike Xiin the transition itself is not the real turning point - it's that we've got a broad based and well accepted political process to sort out issues of governance - all players recognize it and are familiar with it given this is the second iteration. Practice in this case strengthens the peaceful and partcipatory framework for governance. There are indeed various groups fighting in Iraq - disgruntled Sunnis and secessionist Kurds vs Maliki and the Shias and in Afghanistan - the Taliban vs Karzai and his buddies. Apart from a waning Al-Shabaab - there are no real constituencies that feel disgruntled or are being sidelined in governance in Somalia and are thus taking up arms against the state - everyone gets represented by virtue of 4.5. There are issues to be worked re federalism but I don't see that causing political disarray or deadlock. So on the whole I don't see the similarity between Iraq/Afghanistan on the politcal side. There is a similarity with Al-Shabaab and various insurgent groups in Af/Iraq - but the strength and vitality is markedly different - hundreds are killed per month many in spectacular suicide attacks against the most well armed professional forces around. Al Shabaab seems to have fled from many parts from a few hundred African troops. They may strengthen later but at this point I don't see a security comparison to Iraq/Afgh.

 

It would help if you clearly laid out - what similarities you see and how that may bode ill for Somalia - but it seems you're insistent without doing much analysis yourself. Rather your position is more it didn't go well before in Somalia and it went poorly in these 2 other countries - prove why it will better this time. Well - ok - but it would be a more fruitful debate if yourself rather than just raising questions fleshed out your position more.

 

I said what I said not because I lack in verbosity or in the ability to make my point - it's that I think you set the bar too high for sustainable change in Somalia. And this may not let you see when things have indeed turned the corner.

 

PS - i have not engaged in crazy ululations or shilled for the 'transition' - in fact - this is about the only commentary I've done about my position regarding it. Take that yaa Carab.