Ethiopia prime minister a no-show at African Union summit, raising questions about his health

[Macallinka]

Who is Al-Ahbesh sect, what are their believes ?

 

A quick research shows that they are a stray sect that follows a man called Abudllahi inb Al-habashi. They mix shiat, sunni and sufisam believes, no wonder why Zanawi is promoting them.

[LANDER]

Abwaan;851329 wrote:

lol...ma in adiga dal aad leedahay lagaa xoogey baa laguu sheegay? Civil war hallaga baxo ayaa la leeyahay. Waryaa carruuraynta iska daa nin weyn baad tahay ee cajaladda iska saar!

horta adu cajalaadii kacaanka iska sar, markasad dadka kalee wax u sheegii karta.

[Abwaan]

LANDER;852444 wrote:

horta adu cajalaadii kacaanka iska samarkasad dadka kalee wax u sheegii karta.

loool...Cajaladdii Kacaanka, oo hadda maantana ma waxaa la igu eedeeyey inaan Ubaxii Kacaankii ka tirsanaa? Kacaanka wax buu na soo baray oo haddii aadan ka weyneynba Afka aan qoreyno isagaa na baray, balse wixii xun sida gummaadka, caddaalad-darrada iyo musuqmaasuqa kumaan raacsanayn. LANDER, xaggee igala qaadday waa yaabe? Le me think.....

[Che -Guevara]

Zenawi's exit? Why EAC should worry

 

Daily Ethiopia

Monday, July 30, 2012

 

With Ethiopian Prime Minister Meles Zenawi seriously ill, East African leaders need to start worrying about what his impending exit will mean for the region.

 

Though the Ethiopian government has denied reports that the country’s leader has been admitted to a Belgian hospital, and even that he has gone into a coma, there is little doubt that Zenawi is not well.

 

Three years shy of completing his fourth term in office, this is not the way many imagined Zenawi — who has towered over the country’s political landscape — would end his years in power.

 

As Zenawi’s whereabouts and the status of his health remain top secret, inevitably, there is feverish speculation over what happens next in the Horn of Africa nation.

 

Regionally, Zenawi has been one of the key players in the fight against the Somali militant organisation Al-Shabaab. He also actively participated in resolving the dispute between Sudan and South Sudan, which has seen the two countries fight several brief border wars.

 

Zenawi has also been one of the movers behind massive development projects like Lamu Port-South Sudan-Ethiopia Transport Project (LAPSSET).

 

Many analysts in the region worry about the political situation in a post-Zenawi Ethiopia, and are sceptical that the country can pull off a smooth transition.

 

Prof Abdillahi Jama, a political science lecturer at Kenyatta University in Nairobi, said the Intergovernmental Authority on Development (Igad) and other countries in East Africa need to get involved to ensure a smooth transition for the good of Ethiopia and the region.

 

"Ethiopia is not just an important country in the greater Horn of Africa but also in the rest of Africa and the world," said Mr Jama, who is also a member of the Independent Federal Constitutional Commission of Somalia.

 

Ethiopia is Africa’s oldest independent country, has the second largest population after Nigeria, and apart from a five-year occupation by Mussolini’s Italy, was never colonised.

 

Ethiopia has close ties with Kenya and Uganda, and Zenawi and Rwanda’s President Paul Kagame are thought to be close.

 

Since he came to power in 1991, Zenawi has been involved several times in conflicts in Somalia, in the larger Sudan conflict and in border tussles with Kenya and Eritrea.

 

Together with other East African Nile Basin countries, he has raised concerns over sharing of the River Nile waters and even threatened to go to war with Egypt.

 

Led by Ethiopia, which contributes to over 80 per cent of the Nile’s water but enjoys only an insignificant share, Tanzania, Rwanda and Uganda signed an agreement on the Nile River Basin Co-operative Framework in 2010 without the involvement of Sudan and Egypt.

 

The Ethiopian premier is also a key figure in the LAPSSET project, which will be Kenya’s biggest development project since Independence in 1963.

 

Ethiopia and Kenya have a power transmission agreement that involves the linking of the power grids of the two countries, allowing Kenya to import 400MW of electricity each year.

 

The 1,100km transmission line connecting the two countries is expected to be completed by 2016 at a total cost of $1.2 billion.

 

The World Bank will provide Ethiopia with a $243 million loan, while Kenya will receive $441 million to fund the project.

 

Zenawi is the force behind the controversial Gibe III dam that will be used for generating hydroelectric power to be exported to Kenya, Sudan, and Djibouti.

 

Despite the withdrawal of major financial backers like the World Bank, the European Investment Bank, the Italian Corporation and the African Development Bank, Zenawi insists the dam, which will be the world’s fourth largest upon completion, must be built "at any cost."

 

However, it is in the security architecture of the region that his hand is felt most. Ethiopia has the largest number of troops in the greater Horn of East Africa, and the fourth most powerful military on the continent after South Africa, Nigeria and Egypt.

 

The Ethiopian Air Force comes only behind that of South Africa and Egypt.

 

Since 2000, Ethiopia has collaborated closely with the US in covert missions against radical Islamists in Somalia.

 

Ethiopia has carried out large-scale military operations in Somalia without even bothering to get prior authorisation from the UN Security Council.

 

Last year, Zenawi announced that he would deploy troops for a "brief period" in support of Kenyan and Somali forces combating Al-Shabaab.

 

In Somalia, Ethiopian forces have helped liberate several towns including the capital of Hiiraan region, Beledweyne, and Bay, Bakool and Gaalgaduud regions. Ethiopian troops will also be involved in the final onslaught on Kismayu.

 

Zenawi joined some East African leaders in calling for tightened sanctions against Eritrea. The UN imposed sanctions on Eritrean government in late 2009, in response to its alleged role in providing assistance to Al Shabaab.

 

Yet, despite his regional reach, at home Zenawi’s regime has been reduced to a few insiders allowed to share in the spoils of power, but with none able to mount a challenge to replace him as head of state.

 

The retired but influential party official Sibhat Nega seemed to confirm this when he recently told Ethiopian journalists that there would be no regime change, whether Zenawi is dead or alive.

 

The premier’s close friend and top government spokesman Bereket Simon has also tried to downplay the illness of the leader and said he is just on "sick leave." Meles’ workload is enormous and he needed a break, he added.

 

But diplomats in Addis Ababa, pointing to his health record since 2009 when he first sought treatment in a London hospital, now term his illness chronic and "life threatening."

 

His absence for nearly a month from the public eye and critical government events has sparked a new wave of infighting inside the ruling Ethiopian People’s Revolutionary Democratic Front (EPRDF) that could have far-reaching ramifications for the Horn and the wider eastern Africa.

[Che -Guevara]

Coalition politics

 

The EPRDF is a coalition of four largely ethnically-based political parties, with the Tigrayan People Liberation Front (TPLF) — representing Tigrays, who make up less than five per cent of the population — running the show and providing the power base for Meles and his government.

 

An understanding of the country’s coalition politics helps explain why the absence of the premier — himself from Tigray — could turn out to be problematic for the region.

 

The TPLF played a major role toppling the Mengistu government through a bloody guerrilla war that it waged for 17 years.

 

However, it came at a cost, with more than 100,000 Tigrayans killed. The TPLF was created in the 1970s to fight for a Tigray Republic, but later in the 1980s amended its political programme to become a national liberation movement alongside other rebel groups across the nation.

 

The EPRDF coalition includes the Amhara National Democratic Movement (ANDM) created in the 1980s, the Oromo People’s Democratic Front (1990) and the Southern People’s Democratic Movement (SPDM) (1992), all formed under TPLF "supervision."

 

The EPRDF has been in power since 1991 and its first decade was branded as a post-war reconstruction and stabilisation period. But the political landscape changed after 2000 when Meles’s government won the Ethiopian-Eritrean border war.

 

After the victory, a struggle for power erupted in the inner EPRDF ruling circle. Meles successfully neutralised his political opponents and consolidated his power.

 

Early this year, he "retired" some 120 generals and colonels left over from the Tigrayan People’s Liberation Front guerrilla army that brought him to power in 1991.

 

One party rule

 

Through this process, he has positioned himself as a reformist and labelled his critics narrow and conservative.

 

Over the years, Meles has entrenched one-party rule in Ethiopia. He is resented in his homeland of Tigray, once his power base, and by the Amhara elite, the ethnic minority who previously ruled Ethiopia.

 

The Oromo, who represent nearly a third of Ethiopia’s close to 90 million population, have for years agitated for either greater freedom or autonomy, while the Amhara, at nearly 20 million and traditional rulers for most of the 3,000 years of Ethiopian history, have been locked out of power.

 

The ****** National Liberation Front (ONLF) is another active rebel group in the Somali region of Ethiopia fighting for independence since 1984.

 

If Zenawi goes, the cohesion of this security and political structure will be at serious risk.

 

What complicates matters is that the threat is not only from within.

 

Eritrea will be keenly watching the fate of its enemy. Somali, Oromo and other rebel groups are currently based in its capital. Asmara may also wage full-scale war if the TPLF leadership ends up in disarray.

 

Last week, exiled Oromo rebel factions met in Norway, Oslo to discuss the future role of their struggle. They agreed to unify their fight against the current Ethiopian regime.

 

The deteriorating health of Zenawi, 57, can only embolden these opposition groups, though the home-based opposition are weak and fragmented.

 

But Meles’ sudden absence has exposed the lack of a proper succession plan. According to the Ethiopian constitution, Deputy Prime Minister Hailemariam Desalegn (from the SPDM) acts as the country’s leader in premier's absence.

 

Were anything to happen to the prime minister, his deputy would continue as acting leader until parliament elects a new leader. But there has been no official direction as to who is in charge at this time.

 

After the controversial 2005 election, he tried to sell his leadership as all-inclusive and appointed ministers from other regions. His deputy and three of his personal advisors are also from other ethnic groups.

 

But the TPLF still controls key military, intelligence, public service and business institutions.

 

"If the transition is not smooth, there could be internal wars resulting in millions of refugees fleeing to Kenya, Somalia, South Sudan and Djibouti leading to a major crisis in all the four countries," Prof Jama warns. "Then the country will be divided into eight ethnic states.

 

http://www.hiiraan.com/news4/2012/July/25270/zenawi_s_exit_why_eac_should_worry.aspx

[Che -Guevara]

Dead@57?

[Fiqikhayre]

I'm sure if this news is verified Maaddeey with his Guriceel Republic will be marching into Ethiopia.

[Che -Guevara]

lol

[Abwaan]

Fiqikhayre;853596 wrote:

I'm sure if this news is verified Maaddeey with his Guriceel Republic will be marching into Ethiopia.

What about you? Are you going to mourn?

[Macallinka]

^lool@ mourning

 

His friend Somalia already started mourning and making dua for Zanaw's quick recover loool

 

On a serious note thought am really scared for the people of Somali Galbeed if Zanawi dies and Amharas replace him....!

[Fiqikhayre]

Abwaan no I will not but the one good thing Meles did was oust the USC rebels from Baidoa Bay and Bakool of Somalia in 1999. The defenseless farmers of this regions had to endure great hardship by the hands of the Aidid militia. Alhamdulillaah they managed with the help of the Ethiopian army to get rid of them. It was a great victory for them and the loss of Aidid's militias grip, unfortunately he didn't extend the help to the lower shabelle and cut Mogadishu from Kismayo.

[Che -Guevara]

Meles Zenawi: Ethiopian leader 'getting better

 

Ethiopian Prime Minister Meles Zenawi is in "a good condition and recuperating", a government spokesman has told the BBC, dismissing reports he is critically ill.

 

However, Bereket Simon declined to give any details about Mr Meles' whereabouts or what he is suffering from.

 

Mr Bereket had earlier been quoted as saying the prime minister, 57, was on holiday.

 

Speculation began when he missed last month's African Union summit.

 

There were reports that Mr Meles was in hospital in Belgium, suffering from a stomach complaint.

 

But Mr Bereket was quoted as saying by The Reporter newspaper that opposition forces were trying to "create confusion" by talking about the prime minister's health.

 

He told the BBC Focus on Africa programme it was "not useful" to provide more details.

 

When asked who was in charge while Mr Meles was being treated, he replied: "The status quo is maintained - there is no change and there will be no change in the near future."

 

It is believed that Mr Meles' last public appearance was at the G20 talks in Mexico in June.

 

He took power as the leader of a rebel movement which ousted the communist government of Mengistu Haile Mariam in 1991.

 

He has won several elections since then, but his political opponents have accused him of using repression to retain power.

 

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-africa-19078358

[Abwaan]

Fiqikhayre;853613 wrote:

Abwaan no I will not but the one good thing Meles did was oust the USC rebels from Baidoa Bay and Bakool of Somalia in 1999. The defenseless farmers of this regions had to endure great hardship by the hands of the Aidid militia. Alhamdulillaah they managed with the help of the Ethiopian army to get rid of them. It was a great victory for them and the loss of Aidid's militias grip, unfortunately he didn't extend the help to the lower shabelle and cut Mogadishu from Kismayo.

You are not from Baydhabo, you don't speak for them and I do not see anyone from Bay mourning for Meles. Meles attempted to colonize Southern Somalia with the help of those like you and that has failed. He lost many of his men and you lost your dignity, shame on you!

[Che -Guevara]

Ethiopian premier’s absence draws attention, speculation

 

 

Washington Times

Tuesday, August 14, 2012

 

Where in the world is Ethiopia’s prime minister?

 

The question is not a geographical brain teaser but a concerned query about the well-being of Prime Minister Meles Zenawi, who has not been seen in public for two months, and about Ethiopia’s commitment to U.S. counterterrorism efforts in neighboring Somalia.

 

Ethiopian officials say Mr. Meles, 57, is recovering from an undisclosed illness, but he has not been seen or heard from since he attended the Group of 20 summit in Mexico in mid-June.

 

In his absence, the government has continued to brook little dissent from the media, activists and members of opposition parties. It also has announced that Ethiopian troops will remain in Somalia to help defeat al-Shabab, the al Qaeda-linked Islamist militant group that has ruled large areas of the Horn of Africa nation.

 

What’s more, government insiders say Mr. Meles has been grooming his deputy, Foreign Affairs Minister Hailemariam Desalegne, to succeed him.

 

But no succession plan has been announced publicly, and Mr. Meles‘ hold on power has been near absolute, with little in the way of institutional capacity to accommodate a transfer of power.

 

In addition, Mr. Meles‘ minority Tigray ethnic group dominates the government’s ruling coalition, which has stoked deep ethnic resentments and heightened the risk of a scramble for power if the prime minister is no longer in charge.

 

“Ethiopia is a very traumatized society, and people could use this window of uncertainty as a chance to rise up,” said Obang Metho, executive director of the Solidarity Movement for a New Ethiopia, a nonprofit advocacy group based in Arlington.

 

Such a scenario, observers say, could dramatically shift government attention and resources toward domestic issues and hamper Western- and African Union-led efforts to stabilize Somalia.

 

Mr. Meles' government sent hundreds of Ethiopian troops into Somalia in November to fight al-Shabab. They have helped wrestle away towns in central Somalia, train local militia and prevent spillover along Ethiopia’s long border with Somalia, which has allowed AU troops to advance toward other al-Shabab strongholds.

 

Ethiopia invaded Somalia in 2006 to fight Islamists, but that move was unpopular among Somalis and gave rise to al-Shabab. This time, Ethiopia’s presence in Somalia has been more welcome, given the ruthless governance of al-Shabab militants.

 

Ethiopia also has attacked militant bases in Eritrea, which has been accused of supporting al-Shabab.

 

Ethiopia is home to a U.S. drone base operating from a small civilian airport in the southern town of Arba Minch. Mr. Meles‘ regime receives billions of dollars in U.S. assistance.

 

Economic growth has averaged more than 10 percent over the past eight years, spurred by low taxes, improvements to infrastructure and strong foreign investment.

 

But economic inequality remains stubbornly high, with per capita income at about $1,000 a year and youth unemployment at 25 percent, according to the CIA World Factbook 2012.

 

Meanwhile, the government has cracked down on Muslim protesters and forced thousands of people from their land in Gambella and South Omo to make room for commercial agricultural projects.

 

An aide to a U.S. senator involved in African affairs described Mr. Meles‘ absence as unsustainable and said it’s anybody’s guess how the country might unravel.

 

David Shinn, a former U.S. ambassador to Ethiopia, said domestic unrest is unlikely to have much impact on Ethiopia’s policy in Somalia because self-interest is guiding the government’s involvement there.

 

“Any government in [Ethiopia’s capital] Addis Ababa will link unrest in Somalia to potential or actual unrest in Ethiopia’s Odaden region,” Mr. Shinn said, referring to the Ethiopian territory that borders Somalia.

 

The Ethiopian government likely sees itself benefiting from the U.S. drone operation in terms of security and intelligence-sharing with the West.

 

A spokesman in the U.S. Bureau of African Affairs said the United States has been in contact with several Ethiopian officials since Mr. Meles‘ disappearance but would not speculate on what changes might occur should the prime minister not return to his duties.

 

Mr. Meles took power after the fall of the communist Haile Mariam Mengistu government in 1991 and was re-elected amid accusations of voting fraud in 2005.

[Che -Guevara]

Ethiopia suspends forex reserves

 

By ARGAW ASHINE

Thursday, August 16, 2012

 

The Ethiopian government has suspended the provision of foreign currency in a decision that has been linked to the political uncertainties surrounding Prime Minister Meles Zenawi’s deteriorating health.

 

A notice to this effect has been issued by the regulator, the National Bank of Ethiopia, to the country’s commercial banks as Addis Ababa also appealed for food aid.

 

According to Agriculture minister Mitiku Kassa, the number of aid recipients was 3.2 million over the last six months, and have now increased due to the failure of rain in some parts of the country.

 

The country’s foreign currency reserves are running alarmingly low and can only cover the importation of basic goods such as petroleum, medicine and food.

 

The measure is likely to lead to a black market boom that would further weaken the country’s import-export trade, observers say.

Banking in the Horn of Africa nation of about 85 million people is highly centrally regulated.

 

Industry insiders say massive capital flight and illegal transactions are the main reasons for the rapid depletion of forex reserves. One of the fastest growing sub-Saharan Africa countries, Ethiopia’s growth has touched seven per cent annually for the last nine years, according to the IMF.

 

Big businesses owned by Mr Meles’ ruling Ethiopian People’s Revolutionary Democratic Front (EPRDF) play a key role in the daily operation of the economy. The EPRDF owns banks, insurance firms, manufacturing and construction giants, hotel chains and media outlets among the more than 85 companies under the Endowment Fund for the Rehabilitation of Tigray.

 

The EPRDF is a coalition of four largely ethnically-based political parties, with the Tigrayan People Liberation Front (TPLF) — representing Tigrays, who make up less than five per cent of the population — running the show and providing the power base for Meles and his government.

 

Mr Meles, a Tigray, has been absent from the public eye for two months due to an undisclosed illness, fuelling speculation of an internal power struggle his absence.

 

Government officials refute this and say the long-serving premier would resume office soon. However, the government has to date failed to provide proof that he is alive.

 

Ethiopia has lost $11.7 billion to outflows of ill-gotten gains between 2000 and 2009, a recent Global Financial Integrity report says.

 

“That is a lot of money to lose to corruption for a country that has a per capita GDP of just $365. In 2009, illicit money leaving the country totalled $3.26 billion, doubled the amount in each of the two previous years,” part of the report reads.

 

About $194 million in cash or 314 metric tonnes of food is needed for the next four months.

 

Forty-one per cent of the hungry as located in the Ethiopian-Somali region and the rest in Oromiya, Southern and Amhara regional states.

 

Source: Daily Monitor