Oodweyne's Fears

[Che -Guevara]

[Che -Guevara]

Though nothing could come out of one day meeting, is the continuation of the talks reflective of Somalia's desire to prolong the process?

[Che -Guevara]

[Mukulaalow]

First time I see Oodweyne disoriented.

[Che -Guevara]

Oodweyne...Your electorate has their work cut out for them. Some leaders are better than others but in general, I believe Somali leadership in the Horn can not be trusted despite any appearance of service to their respective regions.

 

Personally, I think these talks are waste of time even the two parties are negotiating in good faith. For one, Somalia is no position to take action that will have drastic implication for the entire region. It barely has control over its own affairs and the leadership in Xamar lack the competency to make important legal and economic decisions that will have huge impact on the Somali population of the Horn. Somaliland too has its own issues namely pro-union tribes and internal rivalries. If pro-union tribes were to take arms to exert their control over their lands, it's unlikely Somaliland can win prolonged conflict which will undoubtedly turn into tribal war. Then there's the regional powers and AU that might not be too keen on another African country being partitioned and are afraid of their secessionist movements.

 

I do welcome the symbolism of these talks. It does good to see Somalis sitting down together.

[Carafaat]

Dp

[Che -Guevara]

Somali and Somaliland presidents meet in Duba

 

The presidents of Somalia and Somaliland have held their first formal talks since Somaliland broke away more than two decades ago.

 

The meeting, in Dubai, followed talks in Britain where their representatives discussed ways of clarifying their relationship.

 

The two men, Sheikh Sharif Sheikh Ahmed and Ahmed Silanyo, said steps have been taken to continue the dialogue.

 

Mogadishu wants Somaliland to be part of a single Somali state.

 

But the northern territory, which broke away in 1991, wants to be a separate country and is awaiting international recognition.

 

Since declaring independence, Somaliland has enjoyed relative peace in contrast to the rest of Somalia, which has been plagued by conflict.

 

The first formal direct contact in 21 years between the authorities in southern Somalia, formerly governed by Italy, and the Somaliland administration, which used to be a British colony, happened on 21 June near London.

 

Britain, Norway and the European Union have said they want the two sides to negotiate a settlement.

 

Somaliland agreed to enter into the talks during a February meeting in London, when 40 global leaders met to tackle piracy, terrorism and political instability in Somalia.

 

But its administration says its priority is to remain separate from the rest of Somalia - and wants Mogadishu to recognise its independence.

 

Somaliland unilaterally declared independence after the overthrow of Siad Barre - who led Somalia's last functioning national government.

 

It is relatively stable and holds regular elections which have seen peaceful transfers of power - unlike the rest of the country, which has been racked by continued conflict ever since.

 

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-africa-18635411

[Naxar Nugaaleed]

This government of Somaliland and president of Somaliland is bad business in the long ran.

[Che -Guevara]

^Bad business for who?

[Carafaat]

Naxar maxa dhacay. Awr Bogees iyo Muqdisho ayaa la isku xiray, maybe there will be even a highway between the two.

[NGONGE]

Guru, ma waxaan ka hadlayna wax jira mise xamasada aan SOL ka baranay?

 

I have read your objections to these talks (along with those of our errant historian - Adan Jugle) but, like the fairy tales that Xiin often writes on this site, I have yet to see any tangible and proper argument to refute.

 

Your entire premise rests on the fact that the southern politicians are not to be trusted (scheming, conniving, devious, etc), however, with respect of course, do you not think that Siilaanyo and his government are not aware of that? Better still, do you believe that Riyaale & Waraabe are not? Why is it that only you and the errant historian are the only ones who can see the light but the rest of Somalilanders are blind or unaware?

 

For over twenty years, Somaliland has attempted to engage with the International Community and convince them of the case for recognition. There has been some success in receiving sympathetic acknowledgments (not recognition) from countries such as the USA, Ghana, South Africa and the UK but many others in the world were either opposed to the idea of an independent Somaliland or not even aware of it.

 

Attending the London Conference allowed SL to present its case to a wider audience in an internationally organised conference. It gave the Siilaanyo government the opportunity to sell their project to the world and display SL as a democratic, peaceful and progressive country that is willing to work with anyone (up to and including Somalia). Attending the Istanbul conference cemented this reputation and showed the maturity of SL (as opposed to the squabbling spoilers of the south).

 

Now came the talks. Again, those representing SL have shouted into any microphone that was thrust into their faces that SL is an independent, democratic and separate nation from the one that is Somalia. Of course, you may argue that SL has been doing that for years but I put it to you that, because of the Somali Roadmap and the sudden interest the IC has developed for Somalia, there were never as many microphones for SL to shout into as they’ve found today.

 

So what are these talks about? Unity? Separation? What?

 

Well, in the case of Somalia it is obvious that they want to talk about Unity. However, I, you or the shoe polishers of Burco know that Somaliland will accept nothing short of full independence. Therefore, I put it to you again that there is no way that these talks are going to fail when looked at from the point of view of SL (they will, of course, fail from the point of view of unionists). Guru, SL is not going to lose ground here because it only entered the talks to clarify its future relationship with Somalia, a relationship that every voter in SL understands (we are independent, they are our neighbours).

 

Now, had the government of Siilaanyo spent the last few months engaging in some PR exercise whereby they began hinting that some sort of loose union with Somalia was not a bad thing, I would have begun to worry just like you do now. However, this Kulmiye government (despite all its other faults) knows and realises that not even their most ardent clan followers will accept a single concession or compromise when it comes to the independence and sovereignty of Somaliland. They know that the only two accepted outcomes are that either SL agrees an official separation from Somalia, or, it withdraws from the talks. The advantages of the first option are obvious. Those of the second require some analysis.

 

So, what is the worst that could happen if SL withdraws from the talks as a result of some deliberate procrastination from the TFG? Is it the argument that “we lowered our standards and sat with treacherous Somali politicians”? Seriously guru, these would be juvenile arguments that have no place in the modern world. An independent and mature government should be able to sit with anyone (look at how the world considered Sheikh Sharif a terrorist one day and is rolling the red carpet for him today). It is politics and they’re all means to an end.

 

Still, flip that coin and look at the countless positives for SL (regardless of the results of the talks). There was a time when the world media would only mention SL if and when something interesting happened within the state itself (democratic elections, relative peace, Africa’s best kept secret, etc). The news was sporadic and, up to this day, there are (possibly) people within major governments in the world who do not yet understand or know the full story of SL. However, because of Abdullahi Yusuf and in turn because of AL SHABAB and as a result: because of the ROADMAP, Somalia is receiving almost constant coverage in the media and international diplomatic circles. Furthermore, because of the talks between SL & Somalia, SL is now receiving a healthy share of such coverage. Better still, when International actors complain about spoilers of the Roadmap or need for prompt transition, it is Somalia that receives the criticism not Somaliland. Yet, when they talk about positives going forward the name of SL is mentioned. This, guru, is free publicity that a nation seeking recognition must grasp with both hands. And, at any rate, what is the price for this free exposure; a simple pledge to sit with the TFG and clarify our future relations! A BARGIN!

 

Shuffle that deck any which way you like and look at the hand you hold, guru. Aces every single time.

 

p.s.

One can accept educated guesses or some form of logical hypothesis but the last person I expected to go down the clairvoyant SOL route was YOU, saaxib. Leave the crystal balls to Xiin & Carafaat, guru. You’re much better than this warya.

[The Sage]

Insightful analysis. Looking the moves taken by the Silanyo administration over the past few months reveals a cohesive and well coordinated strategy that seeks to advance Somaliland's interests in relation to Somalia as well as putting forward it's case with the wider world. I think the dialogue will prove a useful tool in showcasing Somaliland to be a repsonsible partner in the geopolitical scene but also will remind the Somalia of the terms of their relationship, that is: Somaliland is completely out of the jurisdiction of Somalia to the point that even arranging a simple meeting with Somaliland's leaders is seen as a success to the TFG...quite sad when one thinks about it.

[Naxar Nugaaleed]

Lol at caraafat, that's the hope but this bs about a sland republic che and sland president meeting with president of somalia and not the Somali president makes think sland got more from this then had they not even joined a Somalia and Somaliland. If was a awdalite, a maakhirite or a Khaatumite, which I am, I'd pissed about this sland republic business.

[Carafaat]

Naxar, so you are talking about clan composition. Your sub-clan has 2 representetives(one Khatumite from SL side and Khatumo Minister in TFG) , mine sub-clan is not even represented in the two committees. Riyale was there, the Minister of Agriculture, both are Awdalites and Cadami is a Makhirian. So what is the issue?

[Xaaji Xunjuf]

I agree the garaad clan is well represented but carafaat you need to understand the clan structure of the Garaad clan , Naxar nugaleed is not represented he is from awr boogays.Dr Caydiid is from Buhoodle, and Baashe Maxammad cade is from Laascaanood. He is from another subclan wax fahan dee.