Garowe Principles, Galkayco Amendments, and the Machiavellian Political Maneuverings of Sh. Sharif

[xiinfaniin]

Ninkii Ragahoo , wax riixan kariyo, rigada mala geeyey reer Xamar

 

If you are Somali you must feel sense of hope today that the country’s security is improving rapidly; with Mogadishu’s security getting better by the day, and the fact Somalia in general is reconnecting with the world again. Recent Turkish International Airlines providing weekly services to Mogadishu, and this week’s announcement that same services will be available to Egal Airport at Hargeysa, the north of the country, are testimony to Somalia’s changing status and profile. Above all, the Garowe Agreement that solidified the political roadmap for Somalia’s various stakeholders offers a rare promise that Somalis in the first time have matured and understood that without articulated holistic approach to address the political differences between them , difficulties to do something substantial to address our current stateless status will forever remain. Add Galkacyo Amendments, in which much needed compromises were adopted to build trust among country’s political stakeholders, to Garowe Principles and you will see how much Somalis politically matured.

 

It is not only Somalis coming into realization about the scope of their downfall; the so called International Community has also shown appreciable growth in their understanding in the required political process to revive Somalia again. We shall not digress to explain factors that forced the International Community to change their attitude with respect to Somalia’s political and security process. The Somali calendar is clearly marked: come August 2012 Somalia will shed off of the transitional status. After twenty-one years, a Somali government with full diplomatic means to enter bilateral relationships, with sovereign rights to control its airspace, maritime territory and borders will be born. It is therefore imperative for Somalis not to squander this opportunity. With such a condensed calendar, we have too many balls in the air, and we need to catch each and every one of them to succeed: constitutional process must be completed, Somaliland break way region needs to be engaged and brought into the fold, new parliament needs to be selected and inaugurated by June, and security situation must be improved even further to allow a smooth, political transition of the country.

 

So now that we established recent events in Somalia do indeed give one hope about the future, let us now turn on the role certain politicians are playing to facilitate or hinder the wheels of roadmap progress to reach the promised political station of August, 2012. With all indications clearly suggesting that Faroole will not run for president, Sheekh Sharif Ahmed is the man to beat.

 

For the most Somalis, the first impression of Sharif was formed in 2006 when he emerged as an innocent figure on the side of righteous aspirations of the majority of Somalis, particularly the Mogadishu residents, to get rid off of Mogadishu warlords. After months of fighting, his Islamic courts won the battle of Mogadishu as they vanquished the Isbaaro men, and returned some semblance of law and order. He belonged to the moderate wing of the courts and spoke language of reconciliation. His peace gestures and moderate demeanor elevated his standing among Somali people. His pictures were flashed on television screens across the world. He became a celebrity overnight. However, few knew that the man from Jowhar with humble background and scanty education possessed political skills that could only be described Machiavellian in its intrigue and snaring scheme. The attack of Islamic Courts at the seat of late Mr. Yusuf at Baydhabo sealed their military role in the country. But it did not seal Sharif’s political ambitions. With extreme wing of the court on the run, regional and international players needed a moderate Islamist figure to fill the vacuum left by the defeated Islamic Courts. Sharif saw the opportunity, changed sides (Some say on ideological grounds) , and filled the vacuum on the expense of late Mr. Yusuf. As he took the presidential chair, his weak managerial skills and lack of understanding about the way of the world were all clear to see for anyone who cared to observe. He stumbled many a times, his priorities were clearly in disarray, and many questioned whether he fully understood the enormity of the presidential responsibility.

 

But what were not in doubt were his political skills, and his tack on maximizing political opportunities as they come his way. For instance, his Prime Minister selections were top notch. He handled Farmajo/Mahiga tussle in a manner that played to his advantage. With the selection of Mr. Gaas he effectively reconciled with Faroole without conceding substantial ground politically. His extraction of 4 more years for th 4.5 political formula in the face of emboldened Puntland leader was a well executed political art that few could achieve in the manner he did---and it was for his base. Similarly, the Galkacyo Amendments were also extracted in the same spirit and style. Now he is poised to shape the political contours of Somaliland engagement with TFG. His opening political bullet in recognizing Khatumo was meant to solidify all the leverage he could get both electorally in the August presidential selection, and politically in the negotiation with Somaliland leadership. If you sensed political overtones in his handling of Mr. Yusuf death and subsequent national burial at Galkacyo, it is intentional I believe.

 

Equipped with Garowe principles and Galkacyo amendments Sharif is poised to win again. He can hardly be underestimated. Some say, international community will not allow him win again or Mahiga will stop him. I don't believe it.

 

I don't like Sharif Hasan as an alternative to Sharif Ahmed. We shall have a different candidate to ensure the road-map gains are sustained and built upon. Abdiweli is not saying if he is running. Farmajo has yet to come to terms with the road-map scheme, and is positioning himself as a centrist candidate hence not a viable candidate.

 

Who will build on Garowe Principles and Galkacyo Amendments ? And who will beat Sharif Ahmed?

[xiinfaniin]

I counted Faroole and Siilaanyo out as this calendar year does not allow them to run for different reasons.

[Timur]

This topic is the dictionary definition of delusion.

 

If Sharif wins, its because of the Garowe Principles and his support from that town and its rulers.

[xiinfaniin]

^^Come again, we have Macno Yare on these boards , didn't know he has a junior here as well.

[Mario B]

The next leader after August will still inherit a country under war and still fractured, the rule of that Presidency will still be under interim basis considering the facts on the ground. For me there has been a transformation of the Sh Sharif in the last year and I believe he should be given another 4 years to execute what he has been learning in the past few years. My biggest dissapointment has been that he failed to free Jowhar, supposedly his strong base.

[xiinfaniin]

^^Jawhar will be freed insha Allah.

 

With the role Turkey is playing, I am sure we will see some surprises come August 2012.