If China remains on the fence, it should be excluded from the future economic boom in Somalia.

[Chimera]

The Dragon is rising on the global scale, but it has remained on the fence with regards to Somalia, the country with whom it shares the oldest political relationship in East Africa and which is steadily recovering. If China followed Turkey's example and became an active participant in the reconstruction of the country, it would stand as an important bulwark against the pro-Ethiopia/Kenya alliance that is the USA-France-UK. The Americans are currently twisting the arms of the Qataris, the Kuwaitis, the Turks and the UAE, and attempting to force them to change their pro-Somalia agenda into one that is compatible with their little sweathearts Ethiopia and Kenya.

 

If China with its rising military and economic clout were to throw its weight behind the pro-Somali alliance that is Turkey-Qatar-UAE-Kuwait, the latter group would have more room to breath, and have support in the Security Council from a permanent member. This would allow Somali politicians to become more independent in the construction of the Somali military, which is intentionally kept from purchasing tanks and other equipment that would allow Somali soldiers to win the al-Shabaab war within a month, instead they are sending contractors with specific limitations.

 

China has to step up, and do a Turkey by setting up an embassy, by having a high-ranking official visit the capital, by assisting with infrastructure projects and the construction of important institutions like the army, navy and airforce, by inviting Somali students to Chinese universities to learn Mandarin, by establishing an airline link to Asia for Somali entrepreneurs.

 

If they don't, then they have no right to be part of the inevitable mega economic boom that will unfold in a peace-time Somalia.

[Nin-Yaaban]

China would only do those things, if they found OIL, other natural resources or there is money to be made in rebuilding the country. Just like the US, they never really do anything out of the goodness of their heart.

[Chimera]

China build most of Somalia's extensive road-network, why? You think they don't have geologists of their own that are aware of the massive oil and uranium reserves in the country? You think they are ignorant of Somalia's agricultural potential? You think they are ignorant of Somalia's aquacultural richness? They know, but something is restraining them from stepping up. I think it has alot to do with the lack of political leadership in Somalia failing to grab the rise of the Dragon with both hands.

 

However that does not mean China can't make the first step. This world is about national interests, we shouldn't care if a country only helps us because they want something from us in return. That's how the world works, and we should adapt to that.

[OdaySomali]

Chimera I want to first comment on your point about the Arab countries that supoort somalis. I can see why small Arab nations such as Kuwait, Qatar, UAE are involved in Somalia. I think we could easily develop a long-term strategic alliance with them in future. We could potentially, and perhaps this is farfetched, utilise their oil-wealth in the development of Somalia and furthering the indepence of Somali lands in the HOA. In exchange, these small desert nations, wich have in the long term unsustainable economic models, could look to having very favourable and close political, economic and social relationships with the independent Somaliweyn.

 

This independent Somaliweyn is socially, culturally and religiously very close to these small Arab nations. They could benefit from and should they so wish live in the Somali peninsula, which covers an area larger than Either Egypt or Mauritainia and is over 1m km2 in land area. Despite common Somali misconceptions, we have abundant resources such as fertile lands, long coastline, abundant water, mineral wealth, strategic location etc. and an economy with huge potential. The fact thet the Kuwaiti Royal family has been a long-time friends of the Somali people, and dare-I-say Somaliphiles, works in our favour - they have indeed residences and palaces they frequent in the Somali peninsula (Mogadishu, Shiekh).

 

 

Having said that, a country like the UAE and Saudi Arabia, have initially much to lose from a stable Somalia. The amount of Somali capital and trade that are lost in those countries to the detriment of Somali people is immeasurable. The Somali livestock that is exported there and the hides and skins therefrom, the frankincense and resincs etc. are used to produce all sorts of consumer goods that means that Somalis lose hundeds of thousands of jobs and millions in potential revenue. The shipping and trans-shipping of consumer and industrial goods via the UAE loses Somalis millions in income and countless jobs; it also makes certain goods much more expensive than they would otherwise be had they been brought directly to Somali ports from say China. Numerous Somali companies are headquartered in places like UAE, Nairobi etc. The list goes on.

 

Our neighbour Ethiopia, has been better at swaying influential countries, such as China, U.S, U.K and even Saudi Arabia, to its favour than has Somalia. To state the obvious, this is mainly due to Ethiopia's demographics (91m population) and the economic implications therefrom. As they say, demography is destiny. China wants future access to this huge consumer market. Other countries want access to its natural and mineral resources (saudies want arable land). Ethiopia is also strategically important for keeping Egypt in check (Nile) and is linked in with the wider ME & Israeli-Palstinian conflict which gives it strategic significance for U.S.A.

 

Somalia on the other hand, despite its geograpic startegic location, is a small impoverished country (10m popl.) that represents no large consumer market and has, quite frankly, been outsmarted by its traditional regional political rival (ethiopia). If Somalia wants to start playing the diplomatic game, it needs to get its house in order. Having said that, China has historically been very active in Somalia due to its geograpic startegic importance. Lets not forget that China was doing in Somalia in the 70's and 80's what it is doing TODAY in other african countries. Back then, as it is doing in other countries now, China built the large highway, the national Stadium in Mogadishu and most likely other projects I am not aware of. So evidently China was interested in Somalia and it is a matter of stabilising Somalia before China engages us again.

[Chimera]

Brother, forget the Somaliweyn dream for now, we should not make the same mistake as the past. We sacrificed thousands of Somali soldiers, billions in equipment and funds in trying to make that dream a reality, but instead the world powers made sure the political map would remain the same. Secondly, areas like the NFD have basically stabbed the Somali nation in the back, they seem to be very comfortable with the current reality, so why should we in Somalia, when we are back on our feet, waste our time on that issue? Similarly Somali-galbeed should have been an independent country like Eritrea, but it is not, why? The Eritreans had less military hardware, less funds and less political support than Somali-galbeed, yet the former is an independent country and the latter is not because the Somalis there thought they could negotiate with the weakly-armed and America's favourite Rebel leader; Meles Zenawi, while the Eritreans forced him to conceed at gun-point.

 

I'm sorry if I sound a bit anti-Somaliweyn, but I'm just looking at the current scenario where we are completely broken, and much of that has to do with this dream. We basically walked straight into the imperial trap that was set up for us at independence. If we had stuck to developing our country, educating our people, drilled the oil in the 60s and continued to support rebels from a distance, while making lucrative alliances with major powers, Somalia would have outlasted its neighbours. With the decades long exploitation of our many resources we would be on Malaysia's or Turkey's level today but with better beaches, and tell me brother, if either Malaysia or Turkey were located in the Horn of Africa today, what country could stop them from regaining lost territories? No country could!

 

Thirdly, i'll be honest with you, I do not believe losing Somali capital is anything the Saudis or Emirates lose sleep over. Their annual profits from oil is three times the size of all the African country budgets combined, Saudi-aramco's monetary reserves could buy two Japans. The UAE has always been a genuine friend of Somalia, and their actions is one of the few I would consider 'brotherly' rather than interest driven.

 

We currently lack good leadership, otherwise we would be outperforming everyone in the region as we did in the past. As you highlighted China was doing in Somalia in the 70s and 80s what it is doing in many parts of Africa today. We can easily sway them into our direction with proper leadership. The Chinese know Somalia has more resources than Ethiopia, the latter's impoverished population size is insignificant to a country of 1.3 billion people with a growing domestic middle-class. Angola with a slightly higher population than Somalia is far more important to China than Ethiopia will ever be, so don't think population is the end all and be all when it comes to international business. We have naval assets that a land-locked country like Ethiopia can only dream off, this gives us another edge.

 

One of the reasons I think China is reluctant to jump into the new Somalia is because of the Lamu project in Kenya linking to the South Sudanese oil-fields, which is very important to the growing economy of China, but once a pipeline is built to Bosaso port, you will see a whole new Chinese policy. However, remember that the Kenyans in the last couple of years countered every aspect that would give Somalia an edge over them. When the Turks entered Somalia and established an embassy, not long after Kenya established an embassy in Ankara. When the oil companies entered Somali soil, the Kenyans began giving out licenses for drilling.

 

Our achilles heel is the current insecurity and bad reputation, otherwise the Brazilians, Indians and the Chinese would have been flocking to our country. What we need to do is build strong institutions such as the military, the government, and revive the important economic sectors to spur foreign direct investment. Once we have reached a certain economic & military level can we look back at the Somaliweyn dream.

[Mario B]

Somaliweyne is dead, lets salvage Somalia from Ras Kamboni to Loyo Ado. Somalis have a habit of running before they could even crawl.