The Day After The Conference Before...

[NGONGE]

Somalis today should feel quietly optimistic that their state might have a very good chance of returning. Somaliland may have not been coerced into going back into the Union but, in all other fronts, the signs look very promising.

 

Of course, it is a convenient coincidence that as the London Conference approached, the TFG along with their AMISOM partners just happened to finally wrestle control of the capital city of Somalia and make inroads in many other areas. It is also a fantastic fluke that the city of Baidoa was “liberated” only mere hours before the conference was about to begin! Garowe 2, Khaatumo 2 and the UN resolutions regarding the increase of AMISOM troops (or the ban of charcoal) all also took place before the conference started.

 

The point is that the world community has decided to finally FIX Somalia. They did so by creating this favourable atmosphere and making it look like things just happened! But things didn’t just happen. There is an obvious and clear plan here and, albeit with the benefit of hindsight, we can all see how it all panned out.

 

Should this master plan follow the same pattern, I expect that we will see more “good news”, more improvements and more progress in the Somali political scene. I can’t predict (accurately) what Al Shabab will do, though I suppose that “hit & run” might become their motto. I also have no idea how the various Somali actors will play it out but, from hearing what Mrs Clinton was saying and reading the resolutions of the London Conference, I believe most of them will lay low and let things happen for a while.

 

If you are a Somali from south Somalia, today should be regarded as a very good day for you and the future of your land (in fact, it is a good day for the entire horn). There is light at the end of the tunnel and though incompetent Sharif is the one holding the torch, the mechanics of post transition Somalia may mean that the next government might not have him as its head.

 

It’s good news that Puntland, Ahlu El Sunta and the others have all decided to toe the line and follow this road map. It is also good news that whatever disputes, arguments or fallouts these groups will have from now on will be supervised and smoothed over by the rest of the world. In addition, and because such a large number of groups have agreed to unite and work towards a peaceful Somalia, we are unlikely to have a repeat of the Abdullahi Yusuf scenario of rejecting outside troops or making “treason” accusations. This time they’re all either patriots or sell-outs.

 

The above should really be the focus of most southern Somalis. However, some unionist may find that they are left in limbo here and therefore SL and its role, position and stance in regards to all of this must also be mentioned.

 

Well, when SL agreed to go to this meeting it demanded that it is viewed as different to the other Somali groups attending. The Brits, with an amazing show of diplomatic resourcefulness agreed to the demand and pulled off a very clever stunt in sitting the SL president apart from the rest, in inviting him to separate meetings with its officials and in the wording of the speeches and literature of the conference. They also allowed the SL president to give a speech in which he himself showed his own diplomatic suppleness and skill where he extended an olive branch to Somalia, offered to help it in its hour of need and told the westerners that nobody can feel its pain like the people of SL could. All along, he also reiterated the autonomous position of SL, its democratic credentials and its desire for international recognition.

 

 

The final communiqué of the conference kept everyone happy again in its beautiful choice of words and non committal statement. I mean, who (on either side) can bristle at words that invite dialogue between Somalia and Somaliland to clarify their future positions? Those from Somalia are happy because SL has not been recognised and those from SL are happy because SL has not been hoodwinked. The only clear point that was made was the distinction between Somalia & Somaliland at this point in time.

 

Alas, the only groups that might not feel comfortable with the conference or any of its resolutions are those that support a Maakhir, Khaatumo or Awdal state. Where does all of this leave them? Does it not mean that (for the Khaatumo group at least) they are back to the dilemma of being either part of PL or part of SL? Or will they join the roadmap (have they?) in their own right. But will PL allow it? Will the TFG help out? Will those that agreed the London Conference accept any additions? Some serious questions are to be answered in that front.

 

Still, I say again, if you are a southern Somali (TFG and the other seven, as Hague called them) you should be really happy today.

[xiinfaniin]

I agree it was a great moment for all Somalis.

 

If you believe two Somalia however this conference made it clear that there is one Somalia that which the world is dealing with.

[N.O.R.F]

The biggest winner this week was Somaliland. Not only did they dictate the terms by which they would accept the invite, they made it very clear that they are not part of Somalia and will continue to seek independence. Demonstrations attended by thousands coupled with a half decent media coverage of their aim only gave their cause more exposure. On top of that, the communique states the world recognises that an international mediator is needed for Somaliland/Somalia discussions. Meaning Somalia will not dictate to Somaliland (great coup). Heh.

 

The rest of meeting and its acheivement were only expected. The timeframe for a change in government is unrealistic and, if this is not acheived by the deadline, the finances of Somalia will be in the hands of a third party!

 

Time will tell.

[NGONGE]

^^ Xiin, only in your eyes did it do so. If anything, this conference has clearly shown that the world regards Somaliland as a different problem altogether. Now it's up to you and your fellow unionists to change your game and smooth the way for the invitable talks. If you carry on in the same vain, you are (and this is no crystal ball talk) never likely to see a united Somalia.

 

p.s.

Norf ku bilow for you thought he was wavering yesterday. Bal waakan jooga, iska sasab adeer.

[xiinfaniin]

If you believe Somaliland dictated the terms of the conference, carry on guys.

[Jacaylbaro]

Somaliland Dictated ?? ,,,,, I think it is more of playing cards very well among the world powers.

[STOIC]

Ngonge, indeed a butterfly has flapped It's wings for Somalia.The truth is NOT hidden.One need only to digest the news to know the profound sense of uncertainities that awaits the Unionists.The difficulties of devising a constructive dialogue with SL is waiting them.Their oscillation between apathy and anger towards SL is NOT going to help them.As for their leaders it is time to stop personal priorities to the detriment of national interest.No more bent recollection for them.

[Carafaat]

Ngonge, indeed we can create a win-win situation in the penisula and that is were polititical foundations are laid not in the futile destructive politics of winner takes all.

 

Yaa Ngonge, tell us will Siilanyo start talks with the current TFG or wait till september?

 

My advice, Siilanyo should meet Sharif in front of all the world camera's and start building goodwill in the South. It would be the best gift we could give Shariif as he is the most sensible and reasonable leader Somalia has seen in 50 years(except for my uncle afcourse).

 

 

P.S. Have you called our cousin Oodweyne, is he alright? Is he still on speaking terms with you? Mise telfoonka ayuu kugu dhigaa?

[xiinfaniin]

^^ :D

 

Oodweyne ha la ii daayo, meeshaan la'aantiis abaar waaye

[Carafaat]

STOIC;794268 wrote:

Ngonge, indeed a butterfly has flapped It's wings for Somalia.The truth is NOT hidden.One need only to digest the news to know the profound sense of uncertainities that awaits the Unionists.The difficulties of devising a constructive dialogue with SL is waiting them.Their oscillation between apathy and anger towards SL is NOT going to help them.As for their leaders it is time to stop personal priorities to the detriment of national interest.No more bent recollection for them.

Ya Sijui, A butterfly is the best description of the politics Somalia today needs. How creative of you to make this up. Your lot has always been the most practicle and creative among Somali's. What would we do without the Sijui's.

[Mario B]

Somaliland may have not been coerced into going back into the Union but, in all other fronts, the signs look very promising.

 

Somaliland never left the UNION, what it did though was create a safe enclave inside Somalia and called it the "Republic of SLand". While the world acknowledgement the peace part, they ignored the "sovereignty" claim.

 

Now this gets interesting, the British position used to be that any recognition had to come from Africa Union, now they have made it even more difficult for the Slanders, they now have to get it from Mogadishu i.e TFG or New Interim Government. :cool:

[Carafaat]

xiinfaniin;794273 wrote:

^^

:D

 

Oodweyne ha la ii daayo, meeshaan la'aantiis abaar waaye

Fortuantly we live in diffrent timezone's. When I woke up this morning, waan yaabay. meesha waxaa ku mudaharadiiyay ciyaalkii Minnesota adiga ayaa hogamiye ileyn u ah oo nagu kiciya, ya Makhiri.

[xiinfaniin]

Mario B,

 

Lets not state facts. NGONGE and North understand the rules of the new game, they understand even Berbera port will be considered part of SOMALI ASSETS. They understand the significance of creating an entity that will manage funds for all Somalia where TFG or whatever replaces it will be sitting as a member representing Somalia. they understand the call for Somaliland to sit down with TFG, is not different than similar calls made by US, and UNIPOS to Puntland with respect to its relationship with TFG...it is a diplomatic way of inviting Somaliland to incorporate its views and political stances into the road map. They understand all of that, and this thread is a feel good post intended to lessen the apparent disappointment of the hard core separatists.

 

I support NGONGE

[STOIC]

Carafat, I have been warned yesterday by Malika not Muddy-up the sijui name with my opinions.....Markaa magacaa igaareeb

[Carafaat]

you held your ground quite well yesterday between the stone throwing kids. The bravest sijui I have seen so far, yaa Suldaan.