Congratulations You Lost. A Dr_Osman Response To Bilan.A.Aden

[Dr_Osman]

My article is going to look at some of the arguments provided by Bilan.A.Aden via hiiranonline(a reputable media agency) and see if anything she has to say holds any weight regarding Puntland's Oil Program or is just mere propaganda spinning to keep her locals faithful that Puntland will never become an oil producing region.

 

Congratulations, You Won

 

You know when you get that annoying pop up after you open a web browser saying “Congratulations You Won!!!”? We all know that it's a hoax and there really isn't anything to win, just a bunch of false ads about subscribing to some random products or services.

This is how I feel about the new Puntland oil discoveries

. Let me give you a little background on the key player.

Her opening paragraph is just mere opinion and everyone has their right to their opinion no matter how insane it may be. You can enjoy that right in Puntland, can you enjoy that right in mogadishu? I'll let you decide for yourself!!!

 

We have the Austrailian exploration and production company called Range Resources. The firm's webiste mentioned that they have found two hydrocarbon basins covering approximately 20 million acres in Puntland, Somalia. It was also mentioned in a web video by Al Jazeera, that these blocks could potentially produce about 19 billion barrels of oil in the Puntland region. That’s about 2 trillion dollars of commerciable oil.

Now she is trying to give some background information regarding the two oil basins in Puntland namely Daror and Nogal which covers 36000km and is the size of Taiwan in it's own respect. Those two basins contain up to 19 Billion barrels of oil or revenue wise 2 trillion dollars. She is totally correct on that part.

 

But as usual Mrs Bilan Aden slightly forgets to mention that Puntland has offshore oil in 3 basins namely the red-sea basin, the Hafun Pennisula and the Indian Ocean basin. She totally neglects to mention the north mudug basin which in a 1993 Petroconsultant study done by geneva said was the most productive oil basin in Somalia. She neglects to mention the gas, gold, iron and silver minerals in the bari/sanaag regions. She forgets to mention the sool basin.

 

When the firm's Executive Director, Peter Landau, was asked on Al Jazeera how the profits will be split, this is how he broke it down:

Without mentioning any details, monthly payment installments will be given to the local government of Puntland during exploration. A range of 4%-12% of royalties, based on daily production, will go to the government. Lastly, profits will be split 50/50 between the local government and Range Resources.

She is totally correct on how the Production Sharing Agreement was negiotated. A royalty of 4-12% will go to Puntland Govt as a fuel levy untill the initial costs of the seismic studies, exploration/production phase, infrastructure installation such pipelines and oil storage tanks are paid off. After those initial costs are paid of and the oil production is in profit mode the PSA will turn into a 50/50 split. So in Total Puntland share will be roughly anywhere from 54% to 62% of its oil.

 

After listening to the interview, I immediately had many concerns about this venture. Questions that I believe should have been asked, were overlooked in this short interview. When it comes to production, who determines the cost and under what economy, the Australian or the Puntland region? When that has been determined, who will oversee the minimum cost? Usually, these companies make huge profits by taking advantage of poor countries, and in this case a region where one man controls, the President of Puntland and Australian citizen, Abdurahman Farole.

She has now mixed hypothetical questions with opinions. Lets start answering her hypothetical questions such as "when it comes to production who determines the cost and under what economy"? Well ms.bilan the oil companies are listed on the stock-exchange and does have shareholders to answer to however the initial costs are very transparent and you can go to range resource website and read it yourself to see how much has been spent on the oil program in Puntland since 2005. Around $50 million has been spent so far in the exploration stage and the production infrastructure costs are still not accounted for.

 

Now she says Under what economy will this be determined by? well its free-market economy and the company is a stock-exchange listed organisation and its answerable to its stakeholders when they see profit so will Puntland in terms of amending the PSA to 50/50 split. She then goes onto use other poor countries as an example of being ripped off and believes Puntland is going down the same path. First of all those countries she is trying too allure to is totally different to Puntland in terms of population, traditional system mechanism, culture and religion. If anything Puntland will follow a Gulf State model and not a Nigeria model because of the realities on the ground.

 

Puntland has a strong traditional system similar to the gulf regions, this is totally lacking in the failed oil producing countries she is trying to compare Puntland to. The Traditional system in Puntland provides a form of check and balances for our region who resolve water disputes currently and in the future will resolve oil dispute if it arises. She then continues to argue that Puntland is a one man dictatorship which is her opinion and not based on facts and totally forgets that Puntland citizens do not accept dictatorships as seen from history between abdullahi yusuf and jama ali jama/adde muse wars back in 2001 till 2004.

 

 

The astonishing thing is that a small unknown company is informing the whole world that they are going to explore oil in Puntland, while the renown companies like Sinclair Oil Corp., Rodgers Oil Company, and Conoco Oil Company, who have been exploring Somali oil since the 40s, are not in the frontlines of this oil business. This seems like a hoax to impress the world and lure big oil companies to buy them out, which is another cost added to the future of Somalia's oil business. Furthermore, to make this project seem legitimate, a few pictures where taken of the two areas with equipment staging a lucrative “come buy me” position. Excuse me? Last I checked, technology is so advanced that finding oil takes minimum effort by simply pointing a satellite. It looks to me that they are trying to gas up the hype.

Maybe Bilan Aden should go read firstly about the oil organisations who are involved in Puntland. Range Resource has Exclusive concession rights to the acreages and has already farmed in major oil companies such as Africa Oil and Horn Petroleum. These companies are working on major portfolios around the world. Its a stock-exchange listed organisation and has stakeholders behind it. If it is a hoax why would people buy shares into it? Why would Africa Oil get involved or Horn Petroleum and Canmex? Maybe Bilan should read how Yemen discovered it oil and the stages it went through to get a better understanding of what Puntland is trying to achieve before misleading the hiiranonline audience with her opinions and mere conjectures.

 

My Last but certainly not least question is how and who will oversee the environmental impact of this oil? Certainly the local government has not established a organized environmental protection agency. The threat of a catastrophic oil spill can be very dangerous to human, animal, and plant life. We all witnessed the oil spill in 2010 in the Gulf of Mexico, eleven crew members died during the explosion and it took more than 80 days to contain the spill. It cost British Petroleum Billions of dollars in clean-up cost and fines mandated by the government. Their effort to contain the oil leaks were due to the demand and outrage of the US government and it’s citizens. I don’t know who will have Puntland’s back if there is such a disaster.

Puntland is pro environment and has that apart of it's policy. For example the state is trying to move away from diesel based electricity to wind-farm technologies as stated recently by NECSomalia chairman via PuntlandPost. Charcoal is trying to be reduced in the region with alternative technologies being sourced. As for Oil Spills and so forth which will not happen but if it does, Puntland will be very conscious of this because the piracy began as environment saviours from illegal fishing and toxic waste dumping. Puntland is very pro environment and steps will be taken to ensure lives are enhanced by the oil productions and not disadvantaged.

[Dr_Osman]

Furothermore extracting commerciable oil in a foreign country requires:

A recognized government, which can negotiate on behalf of it's people and environment.

A recognized elected Parliament, which represents the people of the land that can rectify the deals and contracts between the government and oil companies.

Huge Investment, which requires a peaceful country with a recognized government that can sign deals on behalf of it's people

Banks which are recognized by IMF and International Banks, to be able to conduct financial transactions and L/C (letter of credit)

Infrastructure and strong educated labor force.

Puntland and Somalia as a whole are lacking all these requirements, therefore no genuine company will consider spending a dollar to explore oil in Somalia. If anything, it all sounds like we have a scam on our hands folks and we cannot afford to fall for it.

Regarding having weak non recognised government argument has already been disproven by Kurdistan who is producing oil and progressing its region without a strong federal government in Baghdad. The TFG is recognised, So is the TFP where-as on the ground it is struggling, the regions of Puntland is the total opposite to mogadishu where the Puntland authority has a government supported by its people and has the legal authority to develop its region and secure its region until such time a true federal govt in Somalia is born.

 

Banks are existent in Puntland. There are number of Private banks in Puntland where traders and business-men deposit their wealth into, however if you mean if Puntland will gain access to developmental banks such as the IMF, Puntland will gain access to it when the organisations see clearly that we do have the capability to pay off our loans in a timely fashion since the revenues are there.

 

Infrastructure and a educated Workforce, Well saudi arabia didnt have an educated workforce and that market is flooded by contractors from overseas, it didnt stop them from progressing its region. Puntland will spend alot of its oil revenue into infrastructure projects such as providing free education and health for all so it does have a healthy and educated population to perform the required services for the state in all of it's established or emerging industries. This is why the oil program is very important Bilan it will lay the foundation for Puntland to progress its region in many different sectors and even create new ones such as tourism.

 

As for your last point bilan you come to conclusion that no genuine organisation will invest in Puntland based on your false arguments in your editorial, However their are already reports that Dr Farole is meeting with multi-national companies in Dubai who are lining up to invest into Puntland. As for your hoax argument of the oil their are reports the oil is in its 19th day of drilling and has reached a 1100 meter depth from a targetted 3800 meters.

 

Finally Bilan, this is my Puntland. Care to show me 3 cities in your region that match this?

 

Bosaso

 

 

 

Garowe

 

Galkayo

 

[Dr_Osman]

Bilan is devastated and has been refuted soundly. Her arguments at best are weak and is only looking to give her people hope that Puntland will not progress further then her own regions. Bilan you are desperate and your editorial stinks of it, but remember your jealousy wont stop puntland it will just give it more fuel to progress and lets not kid ourselves your region has no capability to stop Puntland even if it wanted to so just sit back and enjoy the ride and watch as your region falls behind while my region progresses

[NASSIR]

I hope she reads your point by point critique. Nice critique Dr. Osman. I enjoyed it.

[kingofkings]

Dr. Osman to bilan; pwned.

[Burn Notice]

Agreed, nice posts Dr O

 

IF anyone is interested in the Kurdistan blocks in Iraq check out (GKP) Gulf Keystone Petroleum..they drilled the blocks there which targeted the same OIP as the blocks in Puntland

[Timur]

best thing i have read yet on the net.

[Dr_Osman]

King, Nassir ms bilan is just hateful and jealous and that is what her article is about. Its more of "how dare Puntland progress before my people" that's all it is. I don't know where ms bilan has been but Puntland has started it's progress a long time ago, the oil will just take it to another level

[General Duke]

Osman, some valid points there.

[Dr_Osman]

Bilan I don't see this in your areas

 

5 road paving projects at a total length of 10km being worked on inside the cosmopolitan Bosaso City

 

Port Expansions

 

Investments

 

[Dr_Osman]

[Dr_Osman]

Listen here ms bilan im not going even bother showing you what is already established, because I always look to the future. While your at it take these apples and shove it where the sun doesnt shine!!!

 

[Dr_Osman]

Oh ms bilan is quiet well lets puncture your heart even further

 

 

Go away and die in your hate ms bilan your people will fall behind puntland weliga nac pland waxba kama qadaysid gadaal baad uu dhacaysa wa iga balan taas shidaalka ha soo baxo wa inoo markas

[Fiqikhayre]

Well Done Osman, great points made there.

[Dr_Osman]

Fiqikhayre;785314 wrote:

Well Done Osman, great points made there.

Thanks fiqi, bilan is a miserable soul who's article is just from pure jealousy that puntland is progressing and her people are not. Wax kale ma aha? what suprises me the most is why she is blaming puntland for the lack of progress of her own region and people? Is it Puntland's fault? no its not and she is barking up the wrong tree and she just met a wolf that barked back