Who is the Somali big brother?

Xaaji Xunjuf · January 13, 2012

Mintid Farayar;773900 wrote:

Chimera,

My points were simply to correct a few factual errors you made while presenting your optimistic outlook on the Somali future. However, eventually you'll come to the sobering reality that the pressing enemy most Somalis have is not Ethiopia or Kenya, but rather their fellow Somalis. But most of us are shielded from that reality by the sheltered life of living outside.

You proposed initially a non-aggression pact between the different Somali stakeholders but if the history of the last 30 years is anything to go by, Somali pacts signed by Somali stakeholders (with the glaring exception of Somaliland) are usually broken before the ink was dry.

.

As for Carafaat, I lost you a long time ago when you waxed on about universal world peace, global socialism alliance, and sitting around European campfires discussing how to unite the malcontented of the globe..

.

:D:D

Chimera · January 13, 2012

Mintid Farayar,

I really doubt that Somalis are eachother's biggest enemies, in-fact I refuse to believe that, especially with regards to the common man in Mogadishu, Hargeisa or Garowe. An entire people can't be judged on the actions of a few opportunistic men. Be that as it may, one can take any country in the world and see similar episodes that have unfolded in the Somali peninsula. Indeed China's greatest period of war was not against a foreign enemy like Japan or Britain, but one of Chinese versus Chinese during the Taiping Rebellion, similarly America's greatest threat to its existence as a country post-independence did not come from the British or any power in the world, it came from within, again a situation of Americans versus Americans. Only 65 years ago, the Europeans engage in the greatest slaughter in human history when savagely attacked one another, yet look at them today part of Union bailing eachother out.

A political landscape is never static but very fluid, what might seem impossible today, doesn't necessarily have to be so in ten to twenty years time. I still propose a non-aggression pact between Somali stake-holders, and this would only serve Somaliland's interest for any entity not adhering to this pact would be highlighted by the elites of Somaliland, and if like Oodweyne claims of Somaliland having special friends looking for her interests are indeed true rather than wishful thinking, then such pact can only be considered a positive initiative no matter what way you look at it.

Mintid Farayar · January 13, 2012

The American private intelligence firm, Stratfor, gave this forecast for the Somalia situation in its 2012 Forecast:

In 2012, a containment strategy will solidify against Somali jihadists -- both the transnationalist group al Shabaab and its nationalist rival, the Somali Islamic Emirate. This strategy will have three elements. The first will feature African Mission in Somalia (AMISOM) forces consolidating their presence in Mogadishu. These forces include peacekeepers from Uganda, Burundi and Djibouti, and additional forces from Sierra Leone will be deployed soon.

In the second part of the strategy, Kenyan troops will strengthen the cordon along the Kenyan border with southern Somalia. The 4,000 Kenyan troops there, nominally part of AMISOM, will hold territory and interdict Somali jihadists moving about the area. Lastly, Ethiopian forces will fortify a cordon along Ethiopia's border with central Somalia, also attempting to hold the territory and interdict jihadists.

To deny the Somali militias propaganda material, AMISOM, the Kenyans and the Ethiopians will not push deep into Somali territory to engage the jihadists. Instead, local militias employing guerrilla tactics will fight the jihadists within the containment zone. The combined efforts will successfully disrupt the jihadists' lines of supply, but they will not bring about their defeat. The United States will continue covert action in the Somali theater. U.S. special operations forces and unmanned aerial vehicles will collect and share intelligence with the Somali government and its allies. Additionally, U.S. forces in East Africa and the Horn of Africa will remain poised to strike high-value Somali jihadists or senior al Qaeda targets, should the opportunity arise

This is the 'stealth trusteeship' I referred to in previous postings.

Chimera · January 13, 2012

Oodweyne, rain-check, brb.

Mintid Farayar · January 13, 2012

Chimera;773976 wrote:

Mintid Farayar,

I really doubt that Somalis are eachother's biggest enemies, in-fact I refuse to believe that, especially with regards to the common man in Mogadishu, Hargeisa or Garowe. An entire people can't be judged on the actions of a few opportunistic men. Be that as it may, one can take any country in the world and see similar episodes that have unfolded in the Somali peninsula. Indeed China's greatest period of war was not against a foreign enemy like Japan or Britain, but one of Chinese versus Chinese during the Taiping Rebellion, similarly America's greatest threat to its existence as a country post-independence did not come from the British or any power in the world, it came from within, again a situation of Americans versus Americans. Only 65 years ago, the Europeans engage in the greatest slaughter in human history when savagely attacked one another, yet look at them today part of Union bailing eachother out.

A political landscape is never static but very fluid, what might seem impossible today, doesn't necessarily have to be so in ten to twenty years time. I still propose a non-aggression pact between Somali stake-holders, and this would only serve Somaliland's interest for any entity not adhering to this pact would be highlighted by the elites of Somaliland, and if like Oodweyne claims of Somaliland having special friends looking for her interests are indeed true rather than wishful thinking, then such pact can only be considered a positive initiative no matter what way you look at it.

OK, a commendable proposal in any other scenario besides the current Somali one...

Question: Who does the Somaliland leadership sign this pact with? Who's the appropriate, responsible stakeholder on the Somalia side that can enforce this agreement?

Somalia proper is a land of surrogate militias remotely piloted by outside powers that are changed as soon as they outlive their usefulness to the patron country.

Carafaat · January 14, 2012

Mintid Farayar;773900 wrote:

Chimera,

My points were simply to correct a few factual errors you made while presenting your optimistic outlook on the Somali future. However, eventually you'll come to the sobering reality that the pressing enemy most Somalis have is not Ethiopia or Kenya, but rather their fellow Somalis. But most of us are shielded from that reality by the sheltered life of living outside.

You proposed initially a non-aggression pact between the different Somali stakeholders but if the history of the last 30 years is anything to go by, Somali pacts signed by Somali stakeholders (with the glaring exception of Somaliland) are usually broken before the ink was dry.

As for Carafaat, I lost you a long time ago when you waxed on about universal world peace, global socialism alliance, and sitting around European campfires discussing how to unite the malcontented of the globe.

...

Mintid,

I rather seek dialogue and commonalities on those issue's that Unite us. And I know your kind, who always look for the diffrences even on microscopical scale and promise health by prescriping folks with cyanide capsules.

Chimera · January 14, 2012

Oodweyne,

The political landscape of Somalia might be fluid, but that is no different from the fluidness of weekly weather. Your dismissal of my well researched arguments is tantamount to dismissing the predictions of a weatherman because, he too, is relying on "linear suppositions" that have not happened yet. Nobody here has a crystal ball, so examining and analysing the past and the present and then superimposing it on the future is the common technique employed by political and economic analysts.

My arguments:

- There will come a Mogadishu government - within the next five years - that will re-establish stability across the South, one that is more politically savvy than the erstwhile Islamic Courts, and hence, it will consolidate stability and international good-faith to its advantage. The Somalis of Somaliland and the Somalis of the South are genetically identical, there is a clear universal Somali cultural world be it; language, customs, traditions, morals and faith that cross all cities, towns and villages in the peninsula dominated by the Somali people. I absolutely refuse to believe that what our people managed to erect in the Northwest, or the Northeast can't be achieved in the South. The likes of Hawa Abdi and Farmaajo are evidence that there are plenty of Somalis willing to fight for a good cause, even after all the mess the South went through, most people would have given up, yet the people are more motivated than ever, be it on the ground or in the diaspora.

- Economically, Somalia is well set to be a regional & continental player, it has everything it needs to succeed, and one of the liveliest private-sectors in the region that will be carefully nurtured and protected. Their links with the regional economies will be strengthened as the entrepreneurs currently active there return to Somalia to invest there. Today, multiple initiatives are being undertaken to revive a strong Somali agricultural industry. Exports to the middle-east are already set to rise, the return of "big money" crops like Bananas will add to that boom. The reconstruction period will also spur the economy into double digit growth. It's not mere wishful thinking that Somalia will be a major economic player in the region, its children are already laying the foundation.

- Militarily, the Mogadishu government will be in control of a 20 000 man army with a relatively small airforce and proportionate navy that is currently being trained and constructed. This I conceed for the influence of the donor powers will still be to strong for that government to stage Neo-Somali Militarism, much the same way Japan and Germany remain castrated, but in Somalia's case this will only last for as long as their aid and assistance is relevant. The moment the Mogadishu government is expanding its budget to billion plus figures in the form of airport and seaport revenues, farm and livestock revenues, and businesses' revenues, not to mention the donations of wealthy Arab countries, the influence of the western donor powers becomes less, and hence the Mogadishu government has room to employ an independent policy, and do its "dastardly deed" against Somaliland much the same way the current Bashir regime of Sudan cares little about the western cries regarding Darfur.

May I remind you that at independence, the western donor powers sought to restrict Somali Militarism by only agreeing to a minuscule hardware package, which the Somali government at the time rejected, despite the state still being in its infancy, and having ties with their economies. Yet we both know at the eve of Kenya's independence the Somali Republic cut all ties with Britain for its refusal to acknowledge the NFD referendum. To think a Mogadishu government that is standing on its own two feet(not an "if" but a "when") will be deterred by the protestations of "friends" of Somaliland in its bid to establish its jurisdiction over all its territories is fantasy. I already showed multiple historical precedents where this didn't happen.

You doubt the monetary pots that are ready for the future Mogadishu government, but several episodes in the past and present where the Mogadishu government opened multiple pots and put both hands in them, contradict your doubts, be it the Somali military re-arming completely with American hardware worth half a billion dollars through Iran and Saudi Arabia, the loans that build the extensive network of roads and highways still existent across the country,( including Somaliland) or even the recent episode when corrupt individuals stole more than 300 million dollars in the 2008-2009 period. That was six times Somaliland's budget at the time. Let's be honest the kind of money in circulation in Mogadishu, and the potential money that is still accessible through various international development banks are of a kind that Somaliland can never access nor will ever enjoy in its unrecognised status. The corrupt PM Gedi is said to have stolen 30 million under his term, and none of the donor powers really gave a damn, what makes you think that they will care when a future Mogadishu government makes 30 million disappear only for it to return in the form of 50 tanks in the hands of whatever disgruntled movement that is in opposition of Somaliland's quest to secede? Could Somaliland take 30 million of its budget to arm in kind? I doubt it, and if so, for how long?

You're looking at the current useless crop of failed politicians and believe that is what you will have contend with for the coming decades, but that is a very myopic look at the situation. The landscape has changed, new players have entered the scene, and the corrupt ones are devising and inventing one new loophole after another to extend their corruption, but they are running sprints while the people and the good politicians are running a marathon, and will outlast them in the end.

That's when you will witness the Somali political character that could entice a distant superpower to sign the only friendship agreement with a country on the African continent. You will witness the Somali political character that rallied sympathy on the political arena for the likes of ANC-South Africa, Zambia, Mozambique, Djibouti, Eritrea and Palestine, and generated massive support for their independence, security and struggles. You will witness the Somali political character that played one superpower off against the other for national interests. You will witness the Somali political character that could convince an exclusive organisation based on a non-Somali ethnicity to invite it as a member. You will witness the Somali political character of stepping down after defeat in a democratic election. This Somali political would mobilise all of its resources to secure its legitimacy, and one of the marks of a legitimate country is one that controls all its borders. While Somaliland might enjoy the same political characteristics, it lacks one thing, and that is recognised status, a massive disadventage.

Oodweyne, you believe its unfair that I'm giving the future Mogadishu government more resources and allies than Somaliland, but that is because I think you're in denial of history, and believe the international community will look at a recognised government the same way they look at an administration of a unilateral breakaway state that is unrecognised, and whose territory is claimed by the recognised administration. I can't add more to this specific post, for I have said what I originally wanted to say in the previous post, this one was just for clarification. I do not see a reason to continue - as is traditional in the politics section - because I can't force someone to agree with my points, nor do I have an interest to employ the usual name calling and ad hominems that are galore in this section of SOL based on emotions such as pride, or wanting the "last word" so its best to agree to disagree, and hope the future turns out a lot better for the Somali world than the current situation, or my predictions.

Chimera · January 14, 2012

Mintid Farayar;773982 wrote:

OK, a commendable proposal in any other scenario besides the current Somali one...

Question: Who does the Somaliland leadership sign this pact with? Who's the appropriate, responsible stakeholder on the Somalia side that can enforce this agreement?

Sign one with the TFG, as incompetent as they are, they are recognised as the government of Somalia by the international community, and such an agreement will blip on their radar without a doubt, for future reference. My original "stake-holders" however were actually of the non-political kind.

Somalia proper is a land of surrogate militias remotely piloted by outside powers that are changed as soon as they outlive their usefulness to the patron country.

Somalia is a land of mothers, fathers, children, teachers, students, doctors, nurses, entrepreneurs, farmers, nomads - the heart of Somalia - that in several regions are held hostage by confused militia men, however the people will outlast them as they have done so with the dictator or the warlords, the other negative ilk will have similar short life-spans, but the people will remain. If someone of a high caliber - like Hadraawi for example - could mobilise representatives of those peace-loving Somalis to sign an agreement that stipulates the question of Somaliland will always be one of "dialogue" and not war or sabotage, any future government elected by the heart of Somalia must adhere to this agreement or face opposition to their agenda.

Carafaat · January 15, 2012

Chimera;774427 wrote: