Who is the Somali big brother?

[Carafaat]

Chimera;773505 wrote:

Ace of Spadez,

 

First, the North covers a wider territory than just Somaliland, including a vast swathe of land the latter claims but does not control. Secondly, its a stretch to claim "the Somali Republic disintegrated due to its militaristic adventures in Somaliland." The previous dictatorship accomplished its mission of purging out the SNM from the major cities in the North, despite the massive defections of Somali troops and pilots, so it was a practical solution to any opposition in his eyes.

 

However, opposition to his rule was a country wide phenomenon that involved multiple disgruntled entities besides the SNM. Indeed, exactly a year after the SNM was forced out of the major cities in the Northwest in June 1989, there was a meeting between the USC, SPM and SNM on June 1990 to establish a united front against the dictatorship.(

Small arms in Somaliland pg 17

) It was this alliance that proved to much for the Dictator to handle, and is this alliance that forced him out. The Somali Republic at the time was still very much an existing superstructure recognised by the SNM, albeit one with a vacuum, or should I say "black hole".

 

Now that we have settled that historic issue, we can focus on the present and the future. In a scenario where the current TFG - with its myriad of shady characters - succeeds in regaining the South from Al-Shabaab and establishes a competent government, it will be a game changer in the peninsula. For starters, without recognition Somaliland will always be considered a breakaway state while the government in the south will be considered the legitimate representation of Somalia, consisting of all its territories recognised by the international community. Such a government could make development and progress for Somaliland a serious difficulty by thwarting international investment. Such a government would have access to far greater monetary pots than Somaliland, with these funds it could employ "divide and rule" policies amongst the inhabitants of Somaliland at a far greater frequency and intensity than Somaliland could ever hoped to do so in reverse, we both know how these tactics employed by previous Somali governments seriously threatened the existence of established recognised countries like Kenya and Ethiopia (which lost Eritrea).

 

You ask what would necessitate such policies in the first place? Have any of the lame-duck transitional governments welcomed Somaliland's bid for recognition? No! Therefore if the paper governments did not, why would a government with actual legitimacy, stability and a well-equipped military go the other way and welcome unilateral seccesion in one of its claimed territories?

It won't happen, and because of that, the pattern in Somali politics has always been "conflict". This form of conflict doesn't necessarily have to be government troops attacking cities in Somaliland, it could be in the form of the divide and rule tactics I mentioned above, or naval blockades of its ports.

While I recognise Somaliland's right for self-determination, I do not think in such a scenario where the government in the South grows in strength and Somaliland maintains its policy of non-negotiation that it will emerge victorious in such a conflict, because it does not have the same access to major funds that the government in the South will have access to. Movements like the SSC would suddenly have serious military hardware at their disposal, dormant groups within Somaliland would enjoy the same. All of this waste of funds and resources by the Mogadishu government to sabotage a breakaway state, and the latter's spending to withstand that sabotage is funds and resources that could have been better invested on building new roads and highways, better ports, thousands of new schools, hospitals and universities etc, etc.

 

Its because of this why I earlier said the major Somali stake-holders who truly wish a unified Somali family to materialise in the coming generations to sign a pact of non-aggression. Do Somali politicians have this type of foresight? I do not think so.

 

Chimera,

 

I understood from your post as you are actually saying we need to break the cycle of Somali 'conflicts' by taking eachother's vieuw points in to account and respecting eachothers wishes to some extend. So we can start a positive cycle focussed on a constructive future. Otherwise the cycle of conflict continues which wont benefit anyone neither Somaliland nor Somalia and history might repeat itself in another form and sort of conflict?

 

Is this correct?

[Chimera]

Oodweyne, I'm going to ignore the verbal acrobatics,

 

There is no "test of plausibility" only "what what will happen" and "when it will happen", and all signs to point to what I have shared in the previous post. You believe my argument is; that a strong Mogadishu government that has eradicated piracy and extremism will just offer a wish-list to the international community and they will deliver. This is where my replies have been misinterpreted by you, for such a Mogadishu government in no way has to reveal its intention as to what it will do with its funds, be it taxation or foreign aid. This is already happening amongst a myriad of tin-pot dictators propped up by the US and the UK that are aware of the missappropriation but have stayed conveniently mute. (the two powers you believe will defend Somaliland from a recognised government seeking to establish its internationally recognised jurisdiction over all its territories)

 

You invoked the example of Sudan, but here too you are wrong, considering for five decades both the UK and the US stood by as the North oppressed the South, this continued all the way into the last decade, until the stakeholders from the North and the South came together and determined there should be a referendum, which resulted in seperation. What exactly makes Somaliland a more special case than South Sudan for the international community to actually intervene, when in the latter they were spectators for five bloody decades, and remain so with regards to Darfur? Is anyone here ready for decades of warfare? A self-proclaimed patriot will claim; yeah if that's what it takes to earn our self-determination/regain our territories, but I absolutely have no interest in seeing the whole of "Somalia" becoming mirror images of the NFD or the O.gaden where little development is evident.

 

The international community wants a single Somalia, this much we know, otherwise they would have recognised Somaliland, a well-functioning entity whose elections put most of Africa to shame. However, for more than twenty years now they haven't, despite other countries such as Eritrea and South Sudan popping up, and receiving UN membership. Somaliland's quest to dismember Somalia has been ignored, and whatever development projects the US, EU or other entities have invested in the region, one can find similar projects in Puntland, so I do not consider that evidence of them conspiring with Hargeisa and its quest for recognition. Now that we have that out of the way, we can discuss the type of Somalia the international community wants in the region; a peaceful stable Somalia allied with their global policies, and at peace with its neighbours, nothing more nothing less.

 

In the last two decades, the multiple failed governments and movements were either to incompetent or did not earn their trust. When the US initiated "operation restore hope", it was to re-establish a central government, and UN troops arrived in the Northwest as well. The US/UN never consulted with Somalia's neighbours on the country's future, their advice wasn't even needed nor did they care about their wishes for a Somalia that is militarily inferior to them. The US had an independent plan, but it failed due to their cowboy-istic policies and clannist leaders on our part. Today there is no Mogadishu based government elected by the people, nor has the current TFG earned their full trust for a lift in the arms embargo.

 

This will not forever remain so, and a more savvy group will succeed where the others failed, and earn both their trust and support. It wouldn't take long for such a group to stand on its own two feet and eventually dismiss countries like the US, for they aren't all-powerful. In-fact recently I have come to the conclusion that their influence is only because of our current weakness, and lack of politically savvy leaders. A guy like Farmaajo almost singlehandely transformed a corrupt entity, with few strong institutions, yet slowly they're being re-established. If this were to be combined with a partnership involving a rising power like China, no amount of protestations by our neighbours could reverse Somalia's militarization process. They could not reverse it when they had charismatic and globally known leaders such as Haile Sellasie backed by the US, or Jomo Kenyatti backed by Britain. However I do not think a competent Mogadishu government will burn any bridges when it stands on its own two feet but instead will use one power off against the other. You're also ignoring Somalia's other cash-cow which is the OIC countries, remember that post O,gaden War Somalia re-armed itself completely in American fashion through Saudi Arabia and Iran, none of which give the slighest damn about the wishes of our neighbours.

 

Your quick dismissal of my analogy with the "Republic of Biafra" is surely a sign that you do not wish to discuss the issue, and again that's fine with me. That will not change the fact that the seccesionist country of Biafra which maintained its own airforce(which Somaliland doesn't) and enjoyed a population similar to Somalia is another good example of how the international community stands by when a recognised government seeks to establish its jurisdiction over all its recognised territories. I absolutely hope post-war Somalia does not employ any of the Nigerian government's tactics, but again that example shows you how your hope - resting on powers like the US and the UK - is delusional, because they watched how the Nigerian government starved its own population through blockades, and did nothing resulting in the death of a million Biafrans.

 

The only situation where there will be no civilian deaths, decades of conflict, or blockades is through dialogue.

[Chimera]

Oodweyne,

 

I would classify your replies to me as "amusing and eloquent displays of verbal acrobatics" with a pinch of a comical psyscho-analysis for good measure, but not a single counter-argument therein, which is a pity.

[Chimera]

Oodweyne,

 

It's not a bluff but instead the process of logical thinking, and your verbal acrobatics are red-herrings covering up a clear "denial". I'm not in the business of gaining something through deceit, nor was the intention of any of my previous posts; attempts to mislead or intimidate, which is the definition of "bluffing". The opening poster processed correctly what I tried to convey:

 

Carafaat;773620 wrote:

Chimera,

 

I understood from your post as you are actually saying we need to break the cycle of Somali 'conflicts' by taking eachother's vieuw points in to account and respecting eachothers wishes to some extend. So we can start a positive cycle focussed on a constructive future. Otherwise the cycle of conflict continues which wont benefit anyone neither Somaliland nor Somalia and history might repeat itself in another form and sort of conflict?

 

Is this correct?

Exactly!

[LANDER]

Chimera;773222 wrote:

^Good post, I'm a unionist but I don't believe in forced "unions", I say let those that want a different path, have the freedom to do so (this goes for the entire peninsula, not just Somaliland), there are to many commonalities between us that will always makes us gravitate to one another. In the mean-time Somalis should take the fear out of their enemies, lay low, develop their regions and cities with serious infrastructure projects, grow their regional economy and business clout and most importantly maintain stability through compromises.

 

Eventually, come 2030, we would be the most educated, and the most prosperous ethnic group in the region. I fear however that peace in the South will mean war in the North, due to the short-sightedness of the current political crop, and manipulation of neighbouring countries. A serious pact of non-agression should be signed within this year between the major Somali stake-holders.

Chimera,

 

Your ideas are well intentioned and it's perfectly reasonable to assume economic development for all somalis can only come from peace and living peacefully with each other (even if it means 2 or 3 states). There aren't any countries or people that prosper as a result of engaging in perpetual conflict. But be that as it may, you should stay away from what I like to call the somali hubris often found in our community. This idea that if only we had 'peace', we would be so much more prosperous, influential and militarily superior to other people. I think somalis have so much misplaced pride that it is often very counter productive and leaves them in a state of paralysis. Oodweyne maybe undiplomatic in his replies but he's spot on when he talks about Xiins delusional comments about restoring a Somali state that will somehow rival or restore 'balance' against larger, more peaceful, developed and influential countries in the horn.

 

"

And, I am afraid, that is what is not likely to happen. For the wind of international reality is flowing a direction that so decisive against that old "irredentatism". And, unless, you have been a hermit living in the outback of down under in the last thirty years or so, you would of known, that, if Somalia reemerges from her agony, the first principle she would have to satisfy is the peace and tranquility of the neighboring states, with no silly talk of missing Somali land getting to be heard from anybody lips (even if it's a sotte voce one, indeed). "

 

 

Reality is that Somalis all over the world have a total population of probably 20 million or less and the number that will settle in any somali nation-state will likely be less than this number. Other states are not gonna sit idly by while Somalis get there act together, Somalia remains a failed state at the moment and Somaliland an unrecognized self-governing entity which derives most of its business from trade with Ethiopia.

Ethiopia's economy is among the fastest growing in Africa and it has recently started investing in infrastructure, so much so that they now provide electricity supply to neighboring countries like Djibouti. Ethiopia with its 80 million people is on track to become one of the top 10 most populous countries in the entire planet according to the UN and other sources by 2050 with over 200 million people. So you see when I hear somalis talk about how a 'united somali state' will rise and reclaim lost territory and be an economic and military force to be reckoned with in the horn of africa, I wonder if there always delusional or simply high of qaat for that night and will start to think clearly by the next morning. Even if against all odds a united Somali state were to be established, its peace and economic well being would be tied to its ability to forge business ties and maintain peace and good neighborly relations with countries such as Kenya and Ethiopia.

[Carafaat]

Oodweyne;773628 wrote:

Carafaat

,

 

What you say may be well and true; but, what really matter is the

"action"

not the sentimental talk in which Somalis were known for. Furthermore, color me dubious, or even, dye-in-the-wool cynic, but, I am yet to be persuaded that the Somalis (particularly, the folks who are competing for power in Somalia, at least for the foreseeable future) are that high-minded enough to grasp the sort of argument we are entertaining tonight in here. Or to even could conceive a different

"political paradigm"

than the one their nose-to-the-ground could only imagine it.

 

And, that is this game of musical chair at the

TFG

arena (which they have been involved in, ever since the

"Arta"

Farce begun, back in

2000

). And, the upshot of that musical-chair, is that of the notion of waiting, obediently, to whatever the

"powers-that-be"

decides for them, at any given month of the year.

 

Hence, although, it will be sublime justice for the well-trodden Somalis, for them to have a kind of far-seeing leaders in which the likes of the late president

Mr. Havel

of the

Czech Republic

proved to be for his nation (both during the then

Czechoslovakia

existence prior to

1992

, which was when he was a dissident, a play-wright, and, lastly, a democrat of the old European's enlightenment mold of the liberal sense; and the then to the

Czech Republic

after the separation of Slovakia from the rest of Czech Republic); it's unlikely to happen any time soon.

 

Consequently, as you can detected it easily, I am not holding my breadth for that to happen in Somalia. And, the worst tragedy of it all, is that, although that it's most likely, that such a character (of the kind of late

Mr. Havel

was) has a chance to emerge from Somaliland due to the fact of the

"normalcy of her politics"

, as opposed to the kind of

"gun-rule politics"

that Somalia still is susceptible to, or at least still been practice there, but, still, his action will be akin to a

"political prophet"

that tries to preach the goodness of the

"Tent Commandment"

in a

"house of ill-repute"

, in so far as the rest of Somalia is concern.

 

Hence, again, his bold action and

"brotherly magnanimity"

towards Somalia, will be thought of as a political

"weakness"

in much of Somalia. Consequently, he will run the risk of burning his political base in Somaliland and at the same time, having no discernible reciprocating gesture from other side of Somalia.

 

And, that is why, I believe, if ever Somalia is ready to talk to Somaliland; then, Somaliland will be sitting not on a table between the two of them; but in a

"table of three"

, whereby, the

"third interlocutors"

will be that of International community, which is the manner the Sudan's issue was eventually resolved, indeed...

 

I know, this may be a rather disappointment juncture to conclude our lively discussion. But, honesty, at least, in dealing with logic of the argument, compels me to read as I see it. And, most importantly, to base my analysis, not on what I do wish to see happening in the Somali peninsula; but, on the whole, how the cards of reality have being dealt or dish out in the ground in the Somali peninsula...

 

Regards,

Oodweyne.

Oodweyneh,

 

Actions are the outcome of ambitions which are mainly formed through our perceptions and worldy vieuw and less by logic as you want us to think. And formulating or assuming the positive vieuw and perceptions is absolutely important for the eventual outcome, more then it is dictated by logic or the ugly reality of today. And this where Chimera and I are finding one another. You on the other hand tie our ambitions back to the world and facts of today, without considering that there could be a whole diffrent outcome which is less calculatable then you want us to think.

 

Chimera, you are a visionary. And unfortuantly we dont have more of your kind within our Somali community. Therefor we need to preserve you and your ideas and I suggest you stay far away of those who are not that blessed with the gift of imagination and think life is determined by logic, science, calculations and reality of today like Oodweyneh.

[Mintid Farayar]

Chimera;773640 wrote:

Oodweyne, I'm going to ignore the verbal acrobatics,

 

 

You invoked the example of Sudan, but here too you are wrong, considering for five decades both the UK and the US stood by as the North oppressed the South, this continued all the way into the last decade, until the stakeholders from the North and the South came together and determined there should be a referendum, which resulted in seperation. What exactly makes Somaliland a more special case than South Sudan for the international community to actually intervene, when in the latter they were spectators for five bloody decades, and remain so with regards to Darfur?

 

Somaliland's quest to dismember Somalia has been ignored, and whatever development projects the US, EU or other entities have invested in the region, one can find similar projects in Puntland, so I do not consider that evidence of them conspiring with Hargeisa and its quest for recognition.

 

In the last two decades, the multiple failed governments and movements were either to incompetent or did not earn their trust. When the US initiated "operation restore hope", it was to re-establish a central government, and UN troops arrived in the Northwest as well. The US/UN never consulted with Somalia's neighbours on the country's future, their advice wasn't even needed nor did they care about their wishes for a Somalia that is militarily inferior to them.

 

This will not forever remain so, and a more savvy group will succeed where the others failed, and earn both their trust and support. It wouldn't take long for such a group to stand on its own two feet and eventually dismiss countries like the US, for they aren't all-powerful. In-fact recently I have come to the conclusion that their influence is only because of our current weakness, and lack of politically savvy leaders. A guy like Farmaajo almost singlehandely transformed a corrupt entity, with few strong institutions, yet slowly they're being re-established. If this were to be combined with a partnership involving a rising power like China, no amount of protestations by our neighbours could reverse Somalia's militarization process.

 

.

 

Chimera,

 

Your outline of a proposal is well intentioned as others pointed out. I, however, wish to point out a few errors in your argument. I've listed a few excerpts from one of your previous pieces which aren't based on previous and current facts.

 

1- Most Sudan watchers and analysts don't believe it was a willingness on the part of the warring parties(North and South Sudan) that led to the historic agreement and referendum but rather renewed Western interest based on the recent oil finds in South Sudan (not to mention the Chinese exploitation of those resources). The critical importance of South Sudan to Western(and in particular U.S.) interests in the region cannot be overstated. Besides the petrochemical resources, South Sudan borders critical anchor states of the Western/U.S. power structure in Africa such as Uganda, Kenya, and Ethiopia. All threats to these countries' stability are issues of serious concern to U.S. geopolitics in Africa.

 

2- The level of international aid to Southwest Somalia (TFG mandate), Puntland, and Somaliland are not similar nor equal. First, the TFG receives security assistance which comes through aid to AMISOM. The humanitarian aid is filtered through international NGOs. This is the situation you find TFG leaders continuously protesting against in speech after speech.

 

That leaves Puntland and Somaliland which qualify for developmental assistance due to the level of peace present in those regions. A simple search through the UNDP or World Bank website will show you the difference in scale between the aid given to those regions. It's argued that Puntland doesn't yet have the administrative capacity (working ministries with a functioning civil service) to receive anywhere the number of projects that Somaliland receives. Another reason is - the Western community decided that Somaliland had to be rewarded (on a far greater scale) for its democratization process as an example to other Somali-inhabited regions to follow that example.

 

3- Neither 'Operation Restore Hope' nor its successor 'UNISOM' came to Somaliland (which I assume you meant when you said "the Northwest"). The Somaliland president at the time, M.I. Egal, stated in no uncertain terms that there was no need for their presence since there was neither famine nor insecurity in Somaliland. A simple web-based news search from that time will clarify that error for you.

 

4- You hold Farmaajo as an example of good governance. But the facts disprove that assumption. What Farmaajo had during his tenure was excellent 'public relations' within the Somali media. This might have been due to other Somali stakeholders weariness with the constant tussle within the highest Mogadishu power institutions between those who hail from Mogadishu and those who hail from Puntland. Farmaajo was seen as a welcome respite from that continuous struggle which led nowhere for the last two decades. However, it was under Farmaajo's reign that the most 'damning' joint TFG financial auditor/international community auditor report was released highlighting the rampant corruption and misappropriation of financial resources by the TFG and its cabinet. Many would argue that this wouldn't qualify as a blueprint for success for a govenment in Mogadishu.

[Carafaat]

details, details, details.

 

Point is. Xaalada wee is badali kartaa, laakinse idinku ma isla meeshi aa istagee?

 

Hadaa isla meeshaa isttaagisid, adiga lee waaye.

[Mintid Farayar]

Carafaat;773847 wrote:

details, details, details.

 

Point is. Xaalada wee is badali kartaa, laakinse idinku ma isla meeshi aa istagee?

 

Hadaa isla meeshaa isttaagisid, adiga lee waaye.

Reality check for dreamers: Nothing can be accomplished without security and societal peace.

 

It's precisely due to this total separation from the problems of the South that has allowed the precious stability in Somaliland to take root. Look no further than Puntland, which due to its adventurism in the South deals with continuous insecurity (daily killings of prominent citizens and officials in the streets of its cities, pirate fiefdoms within the state, a robust Al Shabaab presence, etc.,).

 

Far from Chimera's prediction of a revived, sovereign Somalia, a stealth trusteeship under regional African armies is being shaped under our very noses.

 

But we can continue blinding ourselves to the realities on the ground and engage in 'what if' scenarios all day.

 

A better use of intellectual faculties would have been - how can the stakeholders of Somalia (the former Italian Somaliland) be moved beyond the zero-sum game mentality to regain some sovereignty. Case in point, the TFG parliament in Mogadishu voted out Sharif Hassan through the procedures in their charter. IGAD immediately negated the vote and informed the parliamentarians of looming sanctions if they persisted in this behavior. The 'roadmap' meetings in Garowe and Mogadishu are nothing more than a jockeying for position among Somali stakeholders for who becomes the 'local chieftain' for the stealth trusteeship.

[Carafaat]

Mindi Maskaxyar, (kaftan)

 

Somalia iminkadaas ayee is badal ku jirtaa. warku malaa toos kuma soo garo. Muqdisho wee hagaagtay oo markii ugu horeysay ee magalada oo dhan hal maamul ka taliyo, maalin kasta qarax kama dhaco, Gedo waa la xoreeyay, Hiiraan sidoo kale, inta kalena waa arki doonta inshallah 2012 ayaa la xoreenaa.

 

juqjuqeen mooyaane, wax kale ma heysa inadeer.

[Chimera]

LANDER;773786 wrote:

Chimera,

 

Your ideas are well intentioned and it's perfectly reasonable to assume economic development for all somalis can only come from peace and living peacefully with each other (even if it means 2 or 3 states). There aren't any countries or people that prosper as a result of engaging in perpetual conflict. But be that as it may, you should stay away from what I like to call the somali hubris often found in our community. This idea that if only we had 'peace', we would be so much more prosperous, influential and militarily superior to other people. I think somalis have so much misplaced pride that it is often very counter productive and leaves them in a state of paralysis. Oodweyne maybe undiplomatic in his replies but he's spot on when he talks about Xiins delusional comments about restoring a Somali state that will somehow rival or restore 'balance' against larger, more peaceful, developed and influential countries in the horn.

 

"

And, I am afraid, that is what is not likely to happen. For the wind of international reality is flowing a direction that so decisive against that old

"irredentatism"

. And, unless, you have been a hermit living in the outback of down under in the last thirty years or so, you would of known, that, if Somalia reemerges from her agony, the first principle she would have to satisfy is the peace and tranquility of the neighboring states, with no silly talk of missing Somali land getting to be heard from anybody lips (even if it's a sotte voce one, indeed). "

 

 

Reality is that Somalis all over the world have a total population of probably 20 million or less and the number that will settle in any somali nation-state will likely be less than this number. Other states are not gonna sit idly by while Somalis get there act together, Somalia remains a failed state at the moment and Somaliland an unrecognized self-governing entity which derives most of its business from trade with Ethiopia.

Ethiopia's economy is among the fastest growing in Africa and it has recently started investing in infrastructure, so much so that they now provide electricity supply to neighboring countries like Djibouti. Ethiopia with its 80 million people is on track to become one of the top 10 most populous countries in the entire planet according to the UN and other sources by 2050 with over 200 million people. So you see when I hear somalis talk about how a 'united somali state' will rise and reclaim lost territory and be an economic and military force to be reckoned with in the horn of africa, I wonder if there always delusional or simply high of qaat for that night and will start to think clearly by the next morning. Even if against all odds a united Somali state were to be established, its peace and economic well being would be tied to its ability to forge business ties and maintain peace and good neighborly relations with countries such as Kenya and Ethiopia.

LANDER,

 

I base my estimation of what Somalis are capable of in peace-time on historic episodes, not wishful thinking. Is it not a historic fact that in peace, Somalia was hailed as one of the few democratic countries in Africa in the 1960s?( a legacy continued in Somaliland). Is it not an historic fact that in peace Somalia made the greatest advance in literacy in human history? Is it not an historic fact that Somalia in peace had a military considered in the top five militaries of Africa? Is it not an historic fact that in peace Somalia was one of the few self-sufficient countries in Africa, and the breadbasket of the Middle East? Is it not an historic fact that in peace Somalia was the first muslim country to grant equal rights to women through 1975 Family Law? Is it not an historic fact that Somalia in peace was building more deepsea ports than any country in East Africa? Is it not an historic fact that in peace Somalia was building more highways and roads than its larger neighbour Ethiopia, including the largest runway in East Africa?

 

My idea of prosperity is not based on air, but on actual historic reputation, and this goes way back. Is it not a fact that Somalia has more historic cities than any country in East Africa? Is it not a fact that these same cities enjoyed bustling trade uncomparable to any of our neighbours, including Ethiopia despite their population sizes? Is it not a fact Somalis have one of the longest and most interesting military histories in Africa, despite having a small population. I absolutely am not impressed by Ethiopia's so-called growing economy. If you peel away the layers of deceit that the TPLF is putting up as front, you will quickly notice the mind-boggling inflation rate. Most of the development is in Addis Ababa, the rest of the country is largely rural and undeveloped. They have lowest tele-density rate in the world, everything is owned by the state, and native farmers are being displaced in deals that gives away millions of acres of arable land to foreign countries like India and China. All the ingredients for a collapse is in the making, from the city-state development to the dictatorial control of the economy.

 

There is nothing for us to be worried about, Ethiopia is a land-locked country, hence its at the mercy of Somalis, be it in Djibouti, Somaliland/Puntland or the South. Somalis are a population of 20 million, but this put us in the top 10 of ethnic groups in Africa. It means as a people we could easily compete with any of our neighbours, who are basically ruled by ethnic groups numbering less than 10 million people, the rest of the population has little to no say in the economy or politics, so Ethiopia might be a country of 80 million people, and Kenya might a country of 50 million people, neither one are utilizing their population the correct way, and nothing suggests that they are going to do so in the future. Secondly population means little, as tiny Singapore is wealthier, and military more powerful than any country in East Africa. We have everything in our territories to create the equivalent of a Malaysia or Chile within two generations, Ethiopia doesn't, neither does Kenya.

 

I tell you why; Somalia is more urbanised than any of its neighbours outside of the city-state that is Djibouti. It has more deepsea ports than any of its neighbours, its the most strategic located country in Africa. Its no longer a city-state country like Nairobi-Kenya or Addis-Ethiopia, but instead multiple regional centers have emerged that with a bit of urban planning put us in a comfortable situation of spread-out and universal development. Its more attractive to rising powers like China and Turkey. Ethiopia and Kenya are major disasters waiting to happen with their estimated populations of 100+ million people, which means more mouths to feed, and more people to keep in check. Somalis by that time will be around the 30 million people, a very healthy size one can easier uplift to a middle income country status, and eventually upper-income. An Ethiopia with an economy of 100 billion translates into Ethiopians having a GDP per capita of $1250, compare this to Somalia having an economy of 100 billion = roughly $10000 per capita for every Somali, it therefore puts things into persepective for none of our neighbours are industrial countries that put their population size to good use, majority are rural farmers, while Somalis are mix of everything.

 

For example, Somalis have a significant foothold in all of the economies of East Africa that no other ethnic group can boast, we are the owners of major real-estate companies, major malls, major banks, major construction companies, major truck companies, major factories, and this we achieved in a age of division and war, imagine if this economic dominance was actually carefully nurtured and patronised through the establishment of a global Somali Stock Exchange where a businessman in Dubai, a company in Hargeisa, and a trader in Mogadishu all could buy up and sell stocks?

 

Therefore my estimation of Somali prosperity, and potential to be a dominant military and economic powerhouse is firmly rooted in reality, and historic episodes.

[Chimera]

Mintid Farayar;773833 wrote:

Chimera,

 

Your outline of a proposal is well intentioned as others pointed out. I, however, wish to point out a few errors in your argument. I've listed a few excerpts from one of your previous pieces which aren't based on previous and current facts.

 

1- Most Sudan watchers and analysts don't believe it was a willingness on the part of the warring parties(North and South Sudan) that led to the historic agreement and referendum but rather renewed Western interest based on the recent oil finds in South Sudan (not to mention the Chinese exploitation of those resources). The critical importance of South Sudan to Western(and in particular U.S.) interests in the region cannot be overstated. Besides the petrochemical resources, South Sudan borders critical anchor states of the Western/U.S. power structure in Africa such as Uganda, Kenya, and Ethiopia. All threats to these countries' stability are issues of serious concern to U.S. geopolitics in Africa.

 

2- The level of international aid to Southwest Somalia (TFG mandate), Puntland, and Somaliland are not similar nor equal. First, the TFG receives security assistance which comes through aid to AMISOM. The humanitarian aid is filtered through international NGOs. This is the situation you find TFG leaders continuously protesting against in speech after speech.

 

That leaves Puntland and Somaliland which qualify for developmental assistance due to the level of peace present in those regions. A simple search through the UNDP or World Bank website will show you the difference in scale between the aid given to those regions. It's argued that Puntland doesn't yet have the administrative capacity (working ministries with a functioning civil service) to receive anywhere the number of projects that Somaliland receives. Another reason is - the Western community decided that Somaliland had to be rewarded (on a far greater scale) for its democratization process as an example to other Somali-inhabited regions to follow that example.

 

3- Neither 'Operation Restore Hope' nor its successor 'UNISOM' came to Somaliland (which I assume you meant when you said "the Northwest"). The Somaliland president at the time, M.I. Egal, stated in no uncertain terms that there was no need for their presence since there was neither famine nor insecurity in Somaliland. A simple web-based news search from that time will clarify that error for you.

 

4- You hold Farmaajo as an example of good governance. But the facts disprove that assumption. What Farmaajo had during his tenure was excellent 'public relations' within the Somali media. This might have been due to other Somali stakeholders weariness with the constant tussle within the highest Mogadishu power institutions between those who hail from Mogadishu and those who hail from Puntland. Farmaajo was seen as a welcome respite from that continuous struggle which led nowhere for the last two decades. However, it was under Farmaajo's reign that the most 'damning' joint TFG financial auditor/international community auditor report was released highlighting the rampant corruption and misappropriation of financial resources by the TFG and its cabinet. Many would argue that this wouldn't qualify as a blueprint for success for a govenment in Mogadishu.

Mintid Farayar,

 

1) Truth be told, Bashir did not expect a seperation. If you look carefully at the agreement, and those that signed it, namely Garang and Bashir, the former never wanted a seperate state, instead he wanted autonomy and a greater say for the South in the larger Sudanese state, however he was "assassinated" and those that took power had a different plan, by that time yes the west shipped in military-hardware(one shipment was even hi-jacked by Somali pirates), which shifted the military balance between the North and South to a more equal level, deterring Bashir from going back on the agreement. However in the end their seperation came in the form of a international observed referendum, and that's how it should be done in our situation when things settle down, rather than unilateralism or gun-boat politics.

 

2) The TFG receives aid in the form of salaries for its civil-servants and its own soldiers, and thousands of troops are being trained in foreign countries by international military experts, so their aid is multi-dimensional and are actually conspiring for a "stable Somalia". Secondly I have looked through several links, and do not see a disproportionate difference in aid-projects between Somaliland and the rest. Indeed, if one looks at the biggest contributor of aid; the EU, one will notice a spread out development policy rather than one specific region. Yes, there are countries like the UK that are doing a stellar job of rewarding Somaliland's grip on stability and democracy, but its not a sign that they are conspiring with Somaliland's bid for recognition. They are a sovereign country, there is nobody that could stop them from recognising the functioning Hargeisa adminstration. Compare this to the amount of multi-dimensional aid a different country like Turkey is now investing in the South, while at the same time pushing Somali interests at every major international convention, be it the G-20 or the UN, this is a good example of a major country promoting the national interests of Somalia.

 

3) That wasn't my point, here is my point:

 

UNOSOM II inherited a series of difficulties from UNITAF and from

US policies

.

The view that 'Somaliland' should be considered part of Somalia

complicated UNOSOM's dealings with the north, while failure to disarm the militias and the factions meant that violent confrontation was difficult to prevent. - Africa South of the Sahara - Page 993

Secondly UNOSOM had representatives in Hargeisa.

 

4) That's a disingeneous attempt to smear a good politician with the dirt of his predecessors. It was his cabinet that put a stop to corruption, and it was under his tenure that an actual anti-corruption committee was set up. It's through this committee's findings that a major discovery was made of the missing of more $300 million. The man is credited for all of this, even by the most cynical of political analysts following the situation in Somalia.

[NGONGE]

Whoever typed in the correct pin code for Chimera to finally dirty his fingers with Somali politics deserves my utmost respect. No cute buildings and great trees nomore, he's now giving us ideas and discussions. Long may it continue (and I lean, slightly towards his overall message; though not his conclusions).

[Chimera]

Credit Carafaat, for he's reaching the highest plateau of true "Somalinimo" transcending symbols, borders and worldy possessions. I must stretch out a brotherly hand.

[Mintid Farayar]

Chimera,

 

My points were simply to correct a few factual errors you made while presenting your optimistic outlook on the Somali future. However, eventually you'll come to the sobering reality that the pressing enemy most Somalis have is not Ethiopia or Kenya, but rather their fellow Somalis. But most of us are shielded from that reality by the sheltered life of living outside.

 

You proposed initially a non-aggression pact between the different Somali stakeholders but if the history of the last 30 years is anything to go by, Somali pacts signed by Somali stakeholders (with the glaring exception of Somaliland) are usually broken before the ink was dry.

 

As for Carafaat, I lost you a long time ago when you waxed on about universal world peace, global socialism alliance, and sitting around European campfires discussing how to unite the malcontented of the globe....