Count down to mid-2012 the beginning of the End of Transition

[Baashi]

IGAD in conjunction with western powers are trying to shore up the fledgling TFG. To expand Mogadishu’s reach, IC are trying to bring in other players from the cold. They have an incentive for outliers. Real and meaningful legitimacy, massive international aid, security guarantees, and biting penalty against the spoilers -- incentives of that nature are one on the plate.

 

This year may prove to be the year in which transition to post conflict Somalia materialize.

 

How to deal with showstoppers like AS is tricky and the movements ground game may impede the whole process. Equally concerning is self-declared Somaliland enclave. It has already made the transition to normalcy and appear to be determined to extract real and meaningful political concession from the South.

 

Puntland chose to be on the driving seat and it is actively reviewing the calculus in order to position itself to collect advantageous political windfall.

 

The scramble for getting clans reach the coveted “recovery status” is under way and may explode.

 

Despite all of this powers that matter are giving much needed attention to the grassroots political dynamics of this tragic failed state.

 

SOL politics section will post meaningful commentaries. Comments will come from a distant land and folks who don’t have all the inside stories of the events of the day. Nevertheless will do our best and call the events as we see them.

 

If things go south we will be disappointed but still we keep on pouring sad commentaries.

 

Game on.

[The Hermet]

The End of transition because:

 

1. The TFG has full control of the country? (NO)

2. The TFG has the means and know how of holding democratic elections? (No)

3. The TFG has the means to independently run the country? (No)

4. The TFG has managed to build governmental institutions that are strong? (No: Fist fights every day in parliment, two speakers of parliment, no real institutions in place)

5. The TFG can function without the support of the AU and Ethiopian troops? (No)

 

and the list goes on and on and on...This is not the end of transition, just because you want it to be...hahaha.

 

But this killed it for me: "Puntland chose to be on the driving seat and it is actively reviewing the calculus in order to position itself to collect advantageous political windfall"...time will tell but windfall from what...hahahaha. From a weak central government that is held up by AU forces, saxib lets wake up. Because this is really funny and sad at the same time. the level of delusion that exists is sad walahi. The truth is this government is pathetic, they know its somalia's last chance of normality. They have signed away there country to Ethiopia and Kenya, the two countries that hate Somalia the most are roaming around Somalia and you really think they want stability for Somalia even though they have gained success from Somalias downfall...wake up. This government will fade into history like the other 20 before it. The kenyans will return knowing they have permanently paralysed there biggest threat. The Ethiopians the same. This is a Geopolitical war and none of these states or international bodies gives a dam about Somalia. Its people are weak and divided have been for 20 years. They couldnt agree on the colour of the sky if they tried. therefore Somalia in my opinion will end up as a trusteeship of the African Union, with African union troops in specific corners while Alshabab returns to many other areas. This is the end of transition alright..this is the end of Somalia...

[Baashi]

Hermet, you are one helluva hanfade awoowe. You are stating the obvious. Let me shock you and say I am in agreement with the substance of your post. What's been cooked in Kampala smells like more of a continuation of the transition rather than an end to the transition. The intend might have been to end it but if Garowe Principles is anything to go by the transition has been implicitly extended to another four years. AU has also extended its mandate to another 12 months.

 

Now you would agree with me, I hope, that the stated policy of TCC and their enablers is to contain the "militants" in Somalia and end the piracy. Regional actors' geopolitical goals appears to be inline with West's security needs hence the political cover enjoyed by Kenya and Ethiopia in everything they do. Somaligu maalinka maantaya waa looma ooyaan. Iyagana halkaa is dhigay.

 

As to PL being the driver seat; well would it be better to rephrase it:) and say that PL's man of the hour Farole has accepted Kampala Accord in toto but with caveat -- that in order to sell it to his constituents he "demanded" having PM from his zone to be put in place (instead of Farmajo), having leeway to select the delegates, and reasonable assurance - a guarantee of sort - that his clan construct is recognized as an important stakeholder at par with the TFG. It is not over yet and no telling what David Cameron has in mind for the incoming conference but so far Farole extracted sizable concessions from other players. That said, Farole has not challenged the bigger game played here. In my opinion he merely submitted to the plan being presented to him and basically said what's in it for me. That's my reading of these sad events.

 

The thread is about the "end of" the transition as Kampala Accord envisioned. All IGAD countries are in except Eritrea. All IGAD countries are now Troop Contributing Countries (TCC) except Ethiopia (exclusion of Ethiopia is requested by TFG -- they can help temporarily but they will not and cannot be part of the TCC). US, EU, and China have reached an understanding of how to deal with Somalia's piracy, militancy, etc. With the game being on, there was a tussle for the ball and they all played to win a seat in a Trusteeship-like client government instead of insisting on owning the process and convening genuine, all inclusive and lasting political settlement.

[Baashi]

AFRICAN UNION UNION AFRICAINE UNIÃO AFRICANA

P.O. Box: 3243, Addis Ababa, Ethiopia, Tel. (251‐11) 551 38 22 Fax: (251‐11) 551 93 21 Email: situationroom@africa‐union.org

 

 

PEACE AND SECURITY COUNCIL 306TH MEETING
ADDIS ABABA, ETHIOPIA
5 JANUARY 2012

PSC/PR/COMM.(CCCVI)

 

COMMUNIQUÉ

 

The Peace and Security Council of the African Union (AU), at its 306th meeting held on 5 January 2012, adopted the following decision on the situation in Somalia:

 

Council:

 

1. Notes the recommendations made by the meeting of the Ministers of Defence of the Troop Contributing Countries (TCCs) to the African Union Mission in Somalia (AMISOM) and other interested countries, held in Addis Ababa on 4 January 2012, regarding the Strategic Concept for future AMISOM operations [CDS‐Min Def/TCCs/AMISOM.REC(I)], as well as the statements made by the AU Commissioner for Peace and Security, representatives of the Transitional Federal Government (TFG) of Somalia, Uganda, as AMISOM TCC, the Special Representative of the United Nations Secretary‐General for Somalia, Denmark, as co‐Chair of the AU Partner Group, Italy, as co‐Chair of the IGAD Partner Forum, and the European Union (EU);

 

2. Recalls its earlier communiqués on the situation in Somalia, in particular communiqué PSC/PR/COMM.3(CCLVIII), adopted at its 258th meeting held on 20 January 2011, in which it decided to renew the mandate of AMISOM for an additional period of 12 months. Council also recalls its communiqué PSC/PR/COMM(CCCII) and press statement PSC/PR/BR.(CCCV) issued at its 302nd and 305th meetings held on 2 and 22 December 2011, respectively, on the draft Strategic Concept for future operations;

 

3. Endorses the Strategic Concept for future AMISOM operations as a planning tool for enhancing the strength of AMISOM and furthering the gains made on the ground, as reviewed and recommended by the Ministers of Defence of the TCCs to AMISOM and other interested countries, including:

. (i) the increase of the level of UN‐supported AMISOM uniformed personnel from 12,000 to 17,731, including 5,700 from the Djiboutian contingent and the re‐ hatted Kenyan troops, as well as AMISOM police component,

. (ii) the deployment by Burundi and Uganda of additional troops to reach the currently UN‐authorized strength of 12,000, with the understanding that the utilization of these additional troops will be determined on the basis of the needs in the main liberated areas,

. (iii) the insertion of AMISOM troops in areas liberated with the support of Ethiopia, in view of the urgency of the stated intent of Ethiopia to withdraw from those areas,

. (iv) the extension of AMISOM’s area of responsibility by fast tracking the insertion of AMISOM troops in all the liberated areas,

. (v) the provision of the required force enablers and multipliers, as well as logistical support to other components of AMISOM, and

. (vi) the enhancement of the TFG security and allied forces, to enable and empower them to play an increased role in the implementation of the Strategic Concept;

 

4. Urges the UN Security Council to expeditiously consider and authorize the support required for the immediate implementation of the Strategic Concept, in order to take advantage of the unique opportunity created by the operations being conducted against Al Shabaab in different parts of Somalia, thereby consolidating the security gains and moving the peace process forward;

 

5. Requests the Commission to accelerate the preparation and consultations on the follow‐on planning requirements, including the elaboration and early finalization of a new AMISOM Concept of Operations (CONOPS) to adequately address all relevant issues, such as command and control, liaison and coordination and troops‐to‐task per sector;

 

6. Appreciates the continuing support of the European Union (EU) in the implementation of the mandate of AMISOM and requests the EU to make available, through the Africa Peace Facility and any other appropriate instruments, the necessary funds to cater for the payment of allowances for 17,731 troops. Council also appeals to other AU partners to provide the necessary financial support for the implementation of the Strategic Concept;

 

7. Welcomes the initiative of the Prime Minister of the United Kingdom to convene a special Summit on Somalia in London, on 23 February 2012, and looks forward to its positive impact in terms of the enhancement of the international community’s support to the political, security, humanitarian and developmental effort in Somalia;

 

8. Welcomes the progress made in the constitution‐making process, in the context of the Garowe Conference in Puntland. At the same time, Council calls on the leadership of the Transitional Federal Institutions (TFIs), as well as all other Somali stakeholders, to demonstrate the required maturity and determination in the implementation of the Kampala Accord of June 2011 and the Political Roadmap of September 2011, to urgently resolve the current crisis within the Transitional Federal Parliament (TFP), with the support of the AU, IGAD and the UN[/b];

 

9. Reiterates AU’s determination to take all necessary measures against all spoilers, both internal and external, who are engaged in actions aimed at undermining the peace and reconciliation process in Somalia, as well as the efforts of AMISOM;

 

10. Requests the Chairperson of the Commission to transmit this communiqué and the Strategic Concept for future AMISOM operations to the Secretary‐General of the United Nations, as well as to the other AU partners, to seek their support and cooperation, and to report to Council on the outcomes of its requests, particularly with regard to the resolution on Somalia to be adopted by the Security Council;

 

11. Decides to renew the mandate of AMISOM for a further period of 12 months with effect from 16 January 2012;

 

12. Decides to remain actively seized of the matter.

 

Source: http://au.int/en/dp/ps/content/peace-and-security-council-african-union-au-its-306th-meeting-held-5-january-2012-adopted--0

[Ace of Spadez]

Baashi,

We all want Somalia to become peaceful. I as a citizen of Somaliland understand it is in my interest to see a peaceful and functioning neighbour in Somalia. Nevertheless, we mustn’t loose the plot here. The Garowe conference was a milestone for having held a meeting inside Somalia for Somalis, never the less I’m a little aghast that you would peddle wholesale what has come out from it. It would be more prudent to stress the ownership staying with Somalis, rather than what foreign powers have lined up to endorse the road map to nowhere. This path has been tried before, I’m sure you remember the Billions poured into UNISOM. This may sound like a game to you, but Somalia does not need winners and losers. The political climate that is built on a zero sum game cannot take Somalia to the next level. As long as we’re discussing which politician, and which region is vying for the lion’s share of the state, Somalia cannot heal nor can it move forward. I think the best solution is to spend more time in Garowe or any other town to reconcile no matter how many conferences it takes. Remember, in order to have everyone on board, the solution is more “XAL” than “XAQ”. A win win for every one so to speak.

[Baashi]

Gents we are on the same page on this one. Time will tell how this saga is going to end. Post any relevant document. This year appears to be a consequential year for Somalia.

 

P.S.: Ace I am all for rolling the dirrin inside Somalia. That's a wonderful. No argument there. However there are important stakeholders that were left out. Not only they were left out in the cold but they will not be able to pick their representative. This is important in the sense that the six stakeholders will nominate all the key active players especially the members of Constitutional Assembly. I for one would hoped to see a just, all inclusive, and negotiated settlement. Anything short of that will have a potential of necessitating another "correction".

[Baashi]

Somalia and Ethiopia

Might things get better for once?

Ethiopian troops are hurting extremists in Somalia but stability is still far away

 

Jan 7th 2012 | ADDIS ABABA AND NAIROBI | from the print edition

 

HOW many countries does it take to chase away a ragtag band of al-Qaeda fighters? In Somalia, the answer is a hatful. The country has a “transitional” government that has for years failed to put up a serious challenge to the al-Qaeda-linked Shabab militia. Backing the government are soldiers from Burundi, Djibouti and Uganda who are fighting the Shabab under an African Union mandate. In October Kenya invaded Somalia from the south with the aim of pushing the Shabab into the sea. France and the United States have intelligence agents and special forces on the ground; the Americans have drones in the sky. And neighbouring Ethiopia has re-entered Somalia to clear the Shabab out of the town of Beledweyne.

 

Many independent Somalia-watchers think this could once again end in tears. Somalis and Ethiopians have been fighting each other on and off for centuries, with Somali zealots, inspired by Islam, periodically launching raids on predominantly Christian Ethiopia—or so the Ethiopians have long complained. Many Somalis resent Ethiopia’s sovereignty over the ethnic-Somali region of ******. An attack on it in 1977 by Somalia ended disastrously; an Ethiopian counter-offensive backed by Cuban troops wrecked Somalia’s army and led to the collapse in 1991 of the last Somali regime to control the whole country. It was 15 years later that Ethiopia invaded Somalia with American support to unseat an Islamist government in Mogadishu, the seaside capital that has long been a wreck.

 

Meles Zenawi, Ethiopia’s prime minister, withdrew his troops in 2009, saying the jihadist threat had receded. But the Shabab consolidated its hold on southern and much of central Somalia, forming a Taliban-style administration. It thrived until last year’s famine exposed its incompetence and cruelty. Suicide-bombings that have killed young Somali students have cost the movement much support, as was shown by the unusually warm welcome the Ethiopians got in Beledweyne, similar to the one the Kenyans got in some towns in the south.

 

For the first time in years the Shabab is on the defensive outside Mogadishu, most of which it has lost in the past six months. Kenyan and Ethiopian forces, with some fumbling, are slowly but methodically going after them. Thousands of Shabab fighters, many of them boys, are marching long distances through the bush to get away. Their artillery pieces are useless and they feel insecure even in their old strongholds. The Somali people, less afraid of reprisals, are turning hostile. In Beledweyne locals mingle with Ethiopians in cafés, suggesting they believe the Shabab will not be back.

 

Somalia may now have its best chance of peace and security since 1991. If the government can consolidate its hold on Mogadishu, it will be a big step forward. The capital’s port is busy, its markets bustling. More suicide-bombings and assassinations will occur; a respected local journalist was killed last month. But this year most residents will, with luck, seek to remake their livelihoods rather than worry about fending off jihad.

 

Yet as anarchy recedes, old territorial questions will re-emerge. Somaliland, in the north, wants independence. Puntland, in the north-east, wants a lot of autonomy. Ethiopia is all for such goals. Mr Meles has good relations with these autonomous parts, hoping to divide and rule. He would like a corridor through Somaliland to export gas and likes using the port of Berbera.

 

But Ethiopia itself is a brittle political construct. A local court last month sentenced two Swedish journalists to 11 years in jail for crossing without permission from Somalia into the ******. Mr Meles has had to subdue separatists from the ****** National Liberation Front. The Oromo people in southern Ethiopia occasionally display separatist tendencies. The Shabab is far from the only threat to stability in the Horn of Africa.

 

from the print edition | Middle East and Africa

 

Source: http://www.economist.com/node/21542457/print

[Baashi]

I was reading Djibouti Peace Process -- between TFG of Inna Yey and ARS of Sherrif -- and it downed on me that the Kampala Accord was in fact salvaging Djibouti Peace Process as it became clear the August 2011 deadline was not going to hold.

 

Now, one other tidbit is that Djibouti Peace Process and all other designs to shore up the fledgeling TFI was limited to the South since secessionist leadership resisted in taking part of a peace process which they have no dog in it. Even though the whole setup was concacted in a way that primary stakeholder inserts in the TFI will serve as placeholder for the absent players, in practical sense whatever TFG and PL agreed on did not apply to Somaliland. The same thing is true when it comes to AS. Powers that be are counting their eggs before they hatch for they are banking on a total defeat of AS by uniting all other political centers in Somalia, IGAD and frontline countries military offence, and then strangling AS by tightening the financial noose on their neck.

 

London conference is a black box to me at this point. There is no telling how all the previous agreements as far as the roadmap is concerned will hold up in the event there is dramatic change of heart by the secessionists. Ol' hand Silanyo will have to get something in return in his bold compromise. What would that be? Can the host country grease the wheels in advance and secure commitments from all sides prior to opening the meeting?

 

The dirrin in London gives us a lot of hope. The expectation is sky high. It better bear fruits or else we will...

 

Will see!

[Somalia]

Oodweyne;771576 wrote:

Hence the genesis of

"Garowe Principles"

and why some are happy to go the

"second stage"

of Somalia long road of

"stealth trusteeship"

(even if this time it will be under the

AU

as opposed to

UN

, which it was previously), and some are not happy with it...

 

All in all; this is a second half of a long game. And unlike the first half of this same game, whereby,

UN

and

Mr. Mahiga

(and all of his predecessors) were the

"referees"

of this

"trusteeship"

; this time around,

Mr. Museveni

(or who ever he chooses to be the

AU's peace envoy

for Somalia) and the rest of contributing nations from Africa will be the

"guarantors"

and the

"referees"

of this

AU's trusteeship

over Somalia.

 

And, the local actors that have signed the

"Garowe Principles"

will be the local

"stake-holders"

, in which this

"new trusteeship"

will be based on, in-terms of the

"legitimacy"

it will have...

 

This, my friend, is the

"real game"

, that is afoot in here...

Stop putting "" where it doesn't belong, your grammar boggles my mind. :confused:

 

As for the Garowe Principles, it is a very legitimate and wide reaching agreement based on the original states of Somalia. If you want to start from the beginning it would be the original 8 states of Somalia and that one just ain't realistic.

[Carafaat]

Baashi;785120 wrote:

 

London conference is a black box to me at this point. There is no telling how all the previous agreements as far as the roadmap is concerned will hold up in the event there is dramatic change of heart by the secessionists. Ol' hand Silanyo will have to get something in return in his bold compromise. What would that be? Can the host country grease the wheels in advance and secure commitments from all sides prior to opening the meeting?

 

The

dirrin

in London gives us a lot of hope. The expectation is sky high. It better bear fruits or else we will...

 

Will see!

Baashi,

 

These outcomes and commitments with these kind of high level Conferences are not left to chanse or to the last moment discussion. The political vieuws and willingness is known far before the Conference starts, and mostly only the points that parties can't agree upon are left for discussion points during Conference and you can bet the host country with the backing of Donors(EU

, US, Arab acountries, etc) has quite a leverage to make sure that a deal can be reached with the best possible outcome

[Freedom]

We will see

[Baashi]

Interest Groups shake things up at London Conference.

 

Foreign Powers:

 

Regional states pushed the “African” solution prescription and asked the wealthy interest groups to underwrite their plan in stabilizing Somalia. Uganda lectured the participants how Africans do business.

 

Uganda strongman recanted the goat and its byproduct business model and how that trade brought his village people and civilized baganda tribe in Kampala closer. His point -- villages should submit to Benadir and find a similar trade arrangement that works . That’s the extent Mousaveni seems to know about Somali conflict!! Scary!

 

Ethiopia focused on “terrorists” threat at their backyard and made clear that negotiating with the “terrorists” is unacceptable. Hillary was delighted to hear Zenawi's commitment to war againts terrorism Zenawi pitched benevolent Ethiopia working with its proxies “liberating” parts of the south as the way forward to defeat AS. No room for negotiation short of unilateral surrender. Ain't that something Unbelievable!

 

Muslim countries pushed a reconciliation route. Turkey in particular said it does not want to see a de facto authorities at the periphery operating outside the fold of national center at Mogadishu. Qatar’s tone echoed Turkey’s concerns.

 

European block led by UK -- mindful of the sizable Somali population in London and the upcoming Olympics -- focused on security and piracy. Europeans want to give up centralized state for now and push a cantonal arrangement of six regions or more working with yet to be defined decentralized and weak federal umbrella. The local cantons will depend on the generosity of donors to jumpstart their local institutions and the bravery and sacrifice of regional states for their security.

 

Uncle Sam wielded his big stick and issued a stern warning to would-be spoilers against post transitional government. America will enforce whatever the Roadmap process produces. Big America wants to maintain unitary arrangement (weakened and divided along tribal purity masquerading regions) as it helps take care of their interests.

 

The grownups at the table in London Conference appoint themselves to be the guardians and made a pledge that they will babysit the handicapped Somalia for a while.

 

Happily ever-arguing Somalis:

 

Somalis -- suspicious of each other pretty much focused on local interest to the detriment of national interest and lobbied for their clan interests.

 

They don’t seem too much concerned about their country. Or put it differently they don’t understand how weak and vulnerable their state would become to both internal strive and outside threats if they allow clan and foreign interests supersede the vital national interest of Somalis in the region.

 

The Somali leaders had their eyes fixated on the local politics (tribal) and post transitional politicking after August 12 deadline. President Sharif thanked his host and named his accomplishment during his tenure pretty much taking credit of what others have done for the TFG. Puntland, Somaliland, Galmudug, and ASWJ listened in. That’s about it. Behind the scene I can imagine a humiliating pleas of “me against my brother” style going on and on to nauseating length.

 

Secessionists leadership and their fellow barking buffoons get hang up on the seating arrangement. The fact that Silanyo requested to be seated away from his fellow brethren and host granting his wish was taken out of proportion and many die hard secessionist preached chapter and verse on the issue and how mere seating arrangement is indicative of what’s to come soon. Unbelievable!

 

Next stop for the Roadmap:

 

Off to Istanbul. Turkey will collect pledges on behalf of Somalis. Somalis will vehemently compete against each other and advance their demise and institutionalize federal decentralized (each clan on its own remedy) weak state to the delight of regional powers (90/40 million - ethnically diverse - strong).

 

Awoowe taariikh ba qori far waaweyn!

 

Five months to go -- Clock is ticking tik tok tik tok