Grand Gathering of Gol Khatumo @ Taleex -- dissected

[Baashi]

Great news for SSC constituents. The so called G6 committee have succeeded against substantial odds in bringing all sides to the dirrin or as folks up in Dervish land would like to say gogosha nabada. Gol Khatumo is now in session. What a good way to start 2012! First touchdown in the first quarter of Gol Khaatumo proceeding by G6. Long way to go as this is four quarters play.

 

Who is in:

 

Traditional chieftains, political heavy weights, young ambitious upstarts, committed Puntlanders, secession proponents, SSC fiefdom advocates, Afar Jeeble, AL Shabaab elements, Culimo, Waamo delegates, and Qurbo Joog of this key constituent come near and afar to Taleex in order to participate rand gathering dubbed as Gol Khatumo. Any clan member who is in position of influence has been invited to take part of this important proceeding.

 

Who is out:

 

Active portfolio holders in the existing admins. They are there in spirit. Their presence has been judged as being toxic. They gaze with watchful eye over the proceeding from neighboring admin seats lest new upstart deprive them their position as reps of the clan.

 

What’s on the table:

 

They are not telling. Talking heads have already weighed in however. Issues are public knowledge! They’ve taken into account various public positions that the numerous political factions of the clan have taken and they extrapolated from there that it will be a tall order to reconcile the seemingly contradicting views of the top brass.

 

No worries, say the pundits. The fact that Gol Khatumo is in session and the fact that the delegates are deliberating the future of their constituents with no third party distracting them is in itself a great achievement. Delegates would sift through the choices in front of them, have a heated discussion over alternatives, and settle -- pundits think -- with clannish construct.

 

Best choice:

 

The clannish construct in the spirit of the recovery zone in participation of the building block drive toward two tier government in federal tribal arrangement is something all sides of Dhulos can agree on.

 

The other alternatives are many and each one of these alternative route has its supporters and fierce opponents within the clan.

 

Puntland Choice:

 

No doubt the delegates are aware of the heavyweights within the clan favor to stick with their founding member position and leverage their position and the recovery area in the August 2012 showdown. However this is not the time to push this one through. The Somaliland proponents are present and if and when the motion for preserving Puntland in its current form is tabled they would cry foul. Delegates pledged that they would prefer clan unity over neighboring admin loyalties.

 

Somaliland Choice:

 

Although there are loyal proponents for Hargeisa admin in the ranks of the clan they tend to be political elites who happen to belong to specific sub clans. The rational for taking that political position has its roots in political and clan grievances against their cousins who run the Puntland enterprise. Pundits expect smooth sailing for the Taleex gathering if the Buuhoodle and Taleex folks refrain show of force and loyalty to their comrades in Puntland.

 

TFG alternative:

 

Here is where Galeyr -- the well known politician of the clan -- flexes his muscles. He has weighed in and calculated that TFG alternative is appealing but hard to sell without having control over a recovery zone of his own. To the surprise of the talking heads, he uncharacteristically shown his hand before the proceeding has started.

 

The phrases such as Cidna marti uguma nihin arrimahayaga....cid kale u daba fariisanmayno...ninkii talo Somali hayoow la kaalay...yeynaan is haaramiin...haatuu burhaanukum...innagaa is dhignay halkaa...waxaan ka soo wareegay meel ku dhow Sudan etc are indicative of his disdain of the two groups loyal to the neighboring admins.

 

Immovable constraints:

 

Active and vocal folks from that neck of the wood appear to be advocating a recovery zone of their own in par with the neighboring admins. That they can have it. What they would realize is that it will not go anywhere as long as Kambala Accord, TFI, and Garowe Principles are in force.

 

All these stipulate (enforce each other) that 4.5 is out, two tier government is in, and any constituent who want to become an autonomies provincial government and member of the federal arrangement must fulfill several prerequisites chief among them being provincial government aspiring entry into federal arrangement must have two or more provinces out of the eighteen provinces of the Somalia that once existed.

 

The SSC do not have this as this pundit sees it. They certainly do have Sool fair and square. They also have parts of Togdheer and Sanaag. If they overlook this crucial clause they will end up where GalMudug ended up. We know where that recovery area got stuck.

 

As long as that clause is in force they have no choice but make use of their TFG representation (4.5 formula -- next four years) to have a say of the affairs of the state. Likewise they will be hard pressed to let go their share of the tax revenue collected by PL admin and foreign aid collected by PL, SL, and TFG on SSC constituents behalf.

 

Expectations:

 

Too early to say. They are sky high though for that particular constituent. That being so, this talking head and wannabee pundit will go out on a limb and say that when all is said and done the best probable scenario is where all participants agree on five overarching principles. That they

 

1. have resolved all their internal issues peacefully.

2. committed to coexist peacefully with their brethren in the neighboring administrations and K5 of federal Ethiopia as equals.

3. have formed executive and implementation committees to lead the clan's effort to establish a recovery zone and provincial government called Dervish Confederacy

4. elected traditional chieftains of the clan to be the supreme mediator for any social or political disputes until effective provincial government is formed.

5. provincial representative alone will determine their clans future.

 

 

Al Kahlif and et al -- Politicians.

 

This wannabee pundit thinks that prominent politicians in that gathering feel a sense of urgency as the transitional period is due to end in August 2012. If elected by the Gol Khatumo participants, that trust will certainly give them legitimacy, control of delegates in the parliament (within 4.5 allocation) and political boost. Likewise if the gathering produces results before next phase of Garow conference (January 21) that will be another boost and will allow Mr. Ali et al to have a say over proportional allocation of the reduced parliament members.

 

SOL kor joogto weighing in from a distance.

[Carafaat]

Baashi,

 

Your analysis misses the most essantial part of governance, which is Finance. Without finance there is no governance and no goverment. Somaliland budget for 2012 contains a new budgetline classified as 'Eastern regions'. Do you think Faroole and Sheick Shariif have similar budgetlines or would you care to explain how a new Maamul would be financed.

[Baashi]

Awoowe I am sure I made numerous misses but the one you pointed out is not one of them. Ali Khalif is a seasoned politician and he has already weighed his options. He understands he needs a platform to channel aid money to his areas. He also knows that the taxes SSC folks pay at the Bosso port is available to PL vice president. Likewise Silanyo has pledged a lot of dough when he visited LA few months back. Both admin have attached strings to that money. There is a scenerio where SSC can have its cake and eat it too. I mentioned that tidbit in my writeup

 

Faroole is not against Taleex gathering. You are misinformed bud. He insisted on Taleex being the place where the gathering should be held for obvious reasons. In the bigger political calculus, whether Dhulos forms a recovery of its own or not is immaterial. In fact Faroole would welcome anything short of secession. In the clannish intrigue, Faroole pulls a tail every time the coin is flipped for both sides are tail In case you didn’t get the joke, let me dissect it for you.

 

You see the greater debate over Somali politics in the post conflict era is whether Somalia should remain strong republic or whether it will adopt a federal arrangement. I happen to prefer strong central republic. The overwhelming majority of the today's political elites if we can call them that are for the latter. Regional powers aggressively are pushing that line too.

 

If Somalia were to adopt the federal arrangement what's the basis of the arrangement should be. Here is where the rubber meets the road. Puntland doesn’t like the 4.5 proportional allocation on the basis of clans. That would give them 22.2%!!! Since clan names are against the SOL golden rules, I will use personalities and if I say president Sharif I mean his huwan clan, same with the speaker and Faroole. The names reps their huwan clans.

 

Both president and the speaker are dead opposed to the regional representation. Their opposition against the regional allocation as the basis of political representation in two tier federal arrangement is purely logistical. Their clans are not united and certainly they are not organized for the regional route. For Farole, it is a blessing from the sky for his fiefdom is organized and if he succeeds his regionalism push his clan confederacy will control not only the majority of regional governments but the most resourceful areas of the country with the exception of Lower Shebelle. Garowe principles sealed that understanding. President and speaker have said they need 4 years to put their houses in order. It is a game on bud.

 

Back to the Taleex gathering. The outcome of the Taleex if it succeeds will serve as the stop to the secessionist hope to punch above their weight when the time come for them to join negotiated political settlement advocated by both regional and international actors. For Faroole, from that perspective anything short of joining Hargeisa admin is a success.

[Liibaan]

I disagree with Baashe analysis, because he was unfair to SSC People. Basically he shared with Faroole's Propaganda.

[Carafaat]

:confused:

 

Faroole is supporting Khatuuma and is going to fund an SSC State with Bosasso taxes, etc??

[Som@li]

Mostly the number one option will be a new Darwish State, They will have to beat the puppets paid by SL and Puntland,who almost destroyed this region Somaliland spent a lot of money to attract this region.

 

Financing is no big issue, it is a vast region, Maakhirs will open a sea access if they request.

[Liibaan]

Som@li;770152 wrote:

Mostly the number one option will be a new

Darwish State,

They will have to beat the puppets paid by SL and Puntland,who almost destroyed this region Somaliland spent a lot of money to attract this region.

 

 

Brother Som@li, you are correct 100%, Darwish SSC State is the only option in table, all SSC people are expecting SSC Dowlad from the Conference, nothing less. SL & PL influence have Zero over the Conference.

 

 

Som@li;770152 wrote:

Financing is no big issue, it is a vast region, Maakhirs will open a sea access if they request.

Thank You Brother Som@li, Maakhiris are natural allies in every aspect.

 

SSC State will do business with Maakhir State, Western Somalia, Galmudug, etc SSC People can use Las Qorey Port, Hobyo Port, Mogadishu Port, etc

 

I agree Financing is no issue, SSC Diaspora can easily raise millions of dollars, the fact is Somali Clan-states like SL & PL mostly depend on Ethiopia, UN and other NGOs.

[Baashi]

Carafaat, awoowe Faroole would love to have the entire constituency on his camp. He tried to just do that. It didn't work. Secession proponents and more importantly SSC movement do not want to do anything with Garowe admin. That's the political reality. Whether Farole likes or not, he has to deal with it.

 

As they say political crisis brings opportunities.

 

If the Taleex gathering achieves the minimum which is reconciled and united clan with elected and legitimate leadership then Darawiish will have hal ilin oo laga soo galo iyo cid loogu hagaago. Farole will do business with the leadership that emerges from the choir. Port revenue is one leverage he -- in conjunction with his allies within the clan -- can exercise. Aid money is a different ball game and much will depend on the uncertain outcome of the conference. We’ll see how it pans out. Remember this pseudo analysis is coming from a nomad who admits that he’s going out on a limp.

 

Liban, it is fine to disagree for I do not want to preach to the choir. Wait. Let me don my wannabee pundit suit. *hat on* Now awoowe lets go back and take stock on the political events of the 2011 year.

 

Once upon time there was TFG and its TFI pillar underpinning the whole enterprise. Then came Kampala Accord. It guaranteed immunity for the two Sharifs for a year.

 

The key event being Kampala Accord. Are you with me? Will get back to the Taleex after we set the stage and shed light on the political calendar in a munite.

 

Transitional Federal Parliament (TFP) ratified Kampala Accord which in turn delivered Roadmap process and Garowe Principles -- both are binding resolutions coveted with international legitimacy.

 

Real game has being played here. It is game on like no other. Roadmap and Garowe Principles extended the mandate of the Transitional Federal Institutions (TFI), reduced TFP to mere 225 MPs, and shredded permanently 4.5 proportional allocation.

 

Good or bad, right or wrong Kampala Accord reigns supreme in Somalia. No one can change the players (The two Sharifs are untouchable until August 2012) and the Kampala Accord gives legitimacy to the whole process. Because of that monumental meeting in Kampala, president of Uganda acts as the gate keeper. Before the end of 2012, all IGAD members will be inside Somalia to push this baby through.

 

Moving back to Taleex, Dr. Ali Galeyr knows the implications of Kampala Accord and understands the political calendar. It will be very hard for him to stop the train at this late hour. There are limited options available to the shrewd players at the Taleex conference.

 

We’ll see how this thing pans out.

[Somalia]

Lol, to form a state you must capture the lands.

Use "Hobyo Port", looooooool. ok.

 

However, I find all of this disgusting. We must unite under the name of Puntland.

[Duufaan]

Somalia;770394 wrote:

Lol, to form a state you must capture the lands.

Use "Hobyo Port", looooooool. ok.

 

However, I find all of this disgusting. We must unite under the name of Puntland.

somali

why are you disgusting with this?

We cannot unite under the name of Puntland,so you can benefit alone.What Faroole puntland is doing SSC, is crime. Faroole continue to undermine SSC and umbushed SSC from the back.

this should stopped

[Duufaan]

Som@li;770152 wrote:

Mostly the number one option will be a new

Darwish State,

They will have to beat the puppets paid by SL and Puntland,who almost destroyed this region Somaliland spent a lot of money to attract this region.

 

Financing is no big issue, it is a vast region, Maakhirs will open a sea access if they request.

I agree with som@li too. The problem with SSC is Puppets paid by SL and Puntland. the only way to deal is a new SSC state. In addition than elected SSC leaders must talk to both SL nad PL administration to leave alone SSC.

[Somalia]

Puntland hasn't done anything to SSC other than spilled blood and resources on it, we still control large parts of Sool region even the heart Xudun is part of Puntland.

 

It's like giving away your leg, how would you feel to give away a leg? We are one people, stop dividing us up. This SSC Movement is a special interest group, they are not looking for unity, if they were looking for unity they'd unite the clan living there, something they haven't been able to do in 4 years, it's embarrassing.

[Liibaan]

Baashe, I know we can disagree and that is fine, but don't use same Puntland or Faroole talking points, look at issues from different perspective. You are biased and not an ojective pundit, you are acting more like spokes person for Faroole.

 

SSC people don't care about Kampla accord nonsense. SSC People want to take the matters into their own hand, SSC people can have their own State or Republic like Galmudug, Awdal, snm/Somaliland, Puntland.

 

Like previous Somali transitional governments, there was always Somali groups who oppose TFG, because they believed TFG was not representative enough. PL opposed both Abduqassim and Shariif initially. ICU opposed Adulahi Yusuf. Most somali Groups didn't participate Mogadishu & Garowe Conferences, so the majority of Somali people are NOT part of Roadmap process, Garowe Principles or the Kampla accord.

 

 

Khaatumo II Conference in Taleex was announced in November 2010 (15 months ago), there is no relation between Khaatumo Conference and the so-called Kampla accord or so-called Garowe Principles.

 

Khaatumo II and SSC State of Somalia is a long-term project, SSC Regional State will rule all SSC Regions, SSC people are planning for next 50-100 years Insha Allah, on the other hand, Kampla accord is a short agreement between two individuals President Shariif and Warlord Faroole.

[Somalia]

Disgruntled underachieving expatriates always resort to silly name calling. Faroole is a warlord now...

 

[Xaaji Xunjuf]

Liibaan how can you not care about the Kampala accord it's the accord the Somalia TFG government reached with its different factionaries in neighboring countries it will shape its future if you are willing to be part of Somalia,you should care about that. Its not all is about having you're clan state come out of the village Liibaan.