The End of Somalia: Scenario of Partition

[Carafaat]

 

“A sheep” says a Somali adage “sees the sky only when it is being slaughtered”. The proverb has anticipated the fate of the Somali people… The butcher has arrived. The knife is sharpened. The Somali is about to see the sky for the first time. This paper is about epiphanies the Somali will behold at the moment of truth, at the edge of the event horizon from which nothing ever returns, just before the riding whip of slavery bites his naked backside. It is a near-funeral situation; we should ponder what follows in a sombre manner, with thoughtfulness and grief.

 

The Epiphanies I: The objective of those who fund the Somali wars is not to rescue Somalis. It was, and remains to be, about limiting Alshabaab’s freedom of action, degrading its capacity and containing it progressively to smaller and smaller territory. The era of America’s great wars is over. This is the diktat of contracting economics of the time. Wars will now have to be fought cheaper and smarter; with the help of allies, with predator drones in the sky and expendable proxies on the ground. The strategy has succeeded beyond expectations in the Somali theatre. That the Somali people have become victims of a permanent war in the process is the collateral damage and truly unfortunate in the eyes of the funders. But it is neither here nor there. War is ugly.

 

The weak perish in it.

II: the Principle of IGAD in Somalia is not to recreate a Somali state (even a weak one, like the TFG); it is to prolong the state of disorder and chaos, to allow for the ripening of unclaimed real estate. IGAD’s ultimate purpose is not driven by the benevolence of a neighbour but by the base and more powerful human drives of greed and lust. I call a spade a spade: IGAD is primarily and almost exclusively driven by unstated yet obvious and macabre agenda of Kenya and Ethiopia. In this light Mogadishu is but a diversion and the TFG a sucker, a cover story, at best a patsy. To behold the stark reality as it stands on the ground look beyond Mogadishu.

“

III: Ethiopia and Kenya have finally stumbled upon and mastered the most important lesson about the Somali people; a lesson that the British, French and Italians found extremely handy in the Scramble for Africa a couple of centuries ago. Somalia is not a nation in crisis but a group of desperate wild tribes each entirely focused in a life and death struggle against the neighbouring tribe. The maxims that determine the life and death of any Somali tribes-man (read every Somali) are the evolutionary psychopathological products of a nomadic society where water and grazing lands are the raw materials in the struggle for survival. These rules set every tribe against its neighbour, divide every tribe into multiple subunits each fighting against one and all. Nowhere in human society are the blind forces of Darwin and the raw evidence of the destructive potential of the selfish gene more evident than in tribal society. 15% of all tribal societies routinely die of the effects of permanent tribal wars (compare this to 3% of the affected societies that died in World War I and World War II) . The tribe is a ferocious and primitive construct that has lived in the past of every human society as the archaeology of the dead tells us. Most unfortunately the tribe remains alive as a vestigial form of social organization in Somali society and it continue to reap a heavy harvest in death and destruction. And Ethiopia and Kenya finally got it.

 

IV: Truth of Partition: Partition of Somalia is no longer a fear, a theory but a reality that can be demonstrated on the ground.Ethiopian and Kenyan states have mastered the Maxims that govern Somalia’s tribal society and they put it to effective use in the service of their strategic and national interest. These same maxims have been used by aid agencies to ensure their own safety in troubled spaces and it lead to the era of Somalia’s Warlords that peaked with Blackhawk down and Ethiopia’s 1st invasion of Somalia. The mafia, mercenaries and private contractors have all used the tribal maxims to get their way with the Somali people in pursuit of their own interest.

Ethiopia and Kenya governments have taken their exploitation of the Somali tribe to an altogether different order of magnitude. So in the last 3-4 years the two countries have been busy scrambling for parts of the dead nation creating spheres of influences that will function as buffer zones now and as the seedlings for territorial exploitation or outright annexation when the time ripens. A sphere of influence is a form of imperial rule in which one nation claims parts of another less powerful nation as being vital to its interest and enforces its “rights” through the use of force, corruption, intimidation and other tools of extreme persuasion. The Sphere of influence as the reincarnation of imperialism in Somalia has the following characteristics:

 

1) The creation of a series of subservient “state-lets” (Ximin iyo Xeeb, Dooxada, Cagaaran, Mareeg, Dhexe, Ceelbur, Galmudug, Azania) or shady movements (Raskambooni, Ahlu Sunna Wal Jama) based essentially on a local tribe headed by a cooperative native (Somali) who profits from the relationship; a state/movement that cannot exist without the open or hidden support of either Ethiopia or Kenya, that is independent even inimical to the Somalia state and that can act as vessel of legitimacy for the Tribal Armed Militia

2) Armed Militia composed exclusively of members of one tribe. This is the central element of the spheres of influence that Kenya and Ethiopia have set up in Somalia. The reason d’être of this force is the survival of the tribe and the defeat of the enemy tribe. It is independent of the Somali state armed forces, controlled by Kenya or Ethiopia and absolutely essential for the continuation of the Somali chaos. Some people, in their extreme ignorance call thiese militias bottom up building blocks. In reality the name building blocks is nothing but the Orwellian language Ethiopia and Kenya use in securing funding from the UNPOS for their respective spheres of influence.

3) An essential feature of the Somali Spheres of influence is the necessity of maintaining a weak, corrupt, divided, Somali state. Such an ineffectual state is necessary because it can be forced to change policy and personalities that conflict with the spheres of influence. It can be forced to cede territorial waters and to make other concessions. And most important such weakling of a state can provide an international cover of legitimacy as the Somali people are gradually stripped of their resources, their seas and finally their lands. The Road Map of Somalia (that has been created by IGAD) is essentially for the purpose of creating such a vassal state

 

V: the United Nations Political Office for Somalia (UNPOS) is not a friend of the Somali people and it is not the enemy of the Somali people either. It is a disinterested third party, populated as it is with interchangeable faceless bureaucrats, whose quintessence is self preservation through the process of writing voluminous reports, organizing empowering workshops and arranging Orwellian celebration days with illustrious titles (international Labour Day, mother’s day, anti oppression, anti-racism, anti sexism days ad ifinitum). Whatever harm or benefit that comes to the Somali people from the mechanizations of these gentlemen is secondary to its Kafkaesque process. The life and death of the leaders and foot soldiers of this organization is not dependent on developments in Somalia only their livelihoods do and that they guard like a lioness guards its cubs. The UNPOS is the senior and perfect partners to the globetrotting Somali speaking, Foreign Passport holding parasitic entity known as Diaspora Somalis. The two sides have produced the most corrupt set of circumstances known to man.

 

VI: the TFG is one of those mass delusions Somalis are prone to, for there remains many who, against all common sense and evidence, maintain there is a Somali government of some kind or the other working in this godforsaken hotel room or the other, paid for by the suitor of the day like any working girl in Craig’s List.

 

VII: Somaliland Walaalkii loo xiiryow soo qoyso adiguna

 

Abdishakur Jowhar

(jowharabdi@gmail.com)

—————————————————————————————————

Views expressed in the opinion articles are solely those of the authors and do not necessarily represent those of Somalilandpress editorial.

[Somalia]

Anything out of SomalilandPress is absolute garbage.

[burahadeer]

Carafaat........true but the suffering of the entire somali population is home made & continues to be home made.The group that taunts somaliland are the ones creating havoc in somalia and little could be done as long as this entity is bent on destroying others,ofc unknowingly along with themselves..Suicide mission!

Somaliland should focus on itself.

[Che -Guevara]

Talk about stating the obvious.

[Carafaat]

burahadeer;766499 wrote:

Carafaat........true but the suffering of the entire somali population is home made & continues to be home made.The group that taunts somaliland are the ones creating havoc in somalia and little could be done as long as this entity is bent on destroying others,ofc unknowingly along with themselves..Suicide mission!

Somaliland should focus on itself.

Buradheer, Somaliland is beyond its fragile state and therefor it will not be easy to destroy it from within or whatever. But it needs to be made stronger, much stronger against all outside forces. Weather this is against foreign countries political influences and interference, international trade policy, protection of its natural resources, position and rights of its people abroad(tens of thousands of our people are locked up in foreign countries with no rights whatsoever), its marine resources being luted, etc, etc.

 

Therefor I belief if would be a smart move and one that is for Somalilands own interest to start a dialogue with the TFG, first and foremost on how to deal on (urgent) Foreign Affairs issue's. Wether this is in the relationship with UN donor agencies, Somali youth in foreign prisons, dealing with Ethiopia, etc, etc.

[burahadeer]

[quote=Carafaat;76650

Therefor I belief if would be a smart move and one that is for Somalilands own interest to start a dialogue with the TFG, first and foremost on how to deal on (urgent) Foreign Affairs issue's. Wether this is in the relationship with UN donor agencies, Somali youth in foreign prisons, dealing with Ethiopia, etc, etc.

 

 

Hahaaa,"dialogue with TFG"...you kidding me! these people r high on the "blue ribbon"..the first thing they tell you is"you'r somalia".Do you really think they aware of the hell befallen on them & how powerless they are..that's why they can't even reach peace,"I'm this or that blew their head away."

[Xaaji Xunjuf]

Dialogue with the TFG u lost me there Carafaat.

[GoldCoast]

LOL Carafaat is a radical, I think you should found a pseudo Unionist party. Not necessarily calling for outright union, but close to it.

[Carafaat]

It's all in there. I have dedicated a thread to it.

 

http://www.somaliaonline.com/community/showthread.php/60614-Somaliland-Djibouti-and-the-TFG-should-have-a-dialogue-on-Trade-and-Foreign-Affairs-issue-s

[Abdul]

Somalia;766497 wrote:

Anything out of SomalilandPress is absolute garbage.

Agree with you on this one.

[Qandalawi]

I heard the editor of this website is SOLer, who is it? Mintid or Fartaag?

[Liibaan]

Has Somaliland’s One Clan-Secession Project come to an end?

 

 

Unwise dreams, as we know, often turn to an utter failure. Every country on the earth has its own travail before navigating away from perilous conflict. History has repeatedly underscored those with impracticable objectives–like the elk of Hitler–to never succeed and so we remember them that way.

 

In perspective, Somalia conflict is one fueled by clandestine clan supremacy and greed. In late 90s when Somalia’s central government collapsed after Ethiopian supported guerrilla forces (United Somali Congress) led by late General Aidid attacked government positions including Siad Barre’s presidential Palace and military establishments around the capital Mogadishu, another Ethiopian sponsored movement (Somali National Movement a.k.a SNM) took the northern regions (former British Somaliland), at a moment whilst USC militia carried out widespread atrocities against Mogadishu residents. The SNM was badly crushed in 1988 by Siyad Barre when it attempted to occupy Hargeisa, the second largest metropolitan city in Somalia.

 

When the conflict escalated in the southern end of the country, SNM shifted its goals. The most powerful army forces in the north, the 26th army division disbanded upon learning the grim announcement of installed prime minister Omar Arte Qalib, an SNM kinsman who took the power after Manifesto Leaders negotiated power transfer with the Siyad’s regime. In the face of war, Omar Arte, an experienced diplomat and one of the longest serving ministers under Siad Barre regime, did not safe the country from feuding clans, but rather chose to steer it to her demise, a raison d’être later understood after SNM declared unilateral secession in the north.

 

As the combatants in the south continued to devastate what was left of the Somali State, uncertainties and mistrust amongst different political stakeholders from feuding clans created a breeding ground for opportunistic ‘warlords,’ piracy, ragtag insurgency, and smugglers. For SNM collaborationist, the looming conflict gave them the window to step up the ‘secession campaign.’ The one clan administration in Hargeisa tried to sell the world their malicious democratic venture, however the international community refused to heed Somalia’s dismemberment. After 20 years of ‘wild goose chase’ style diplomatic hunch, finally the SNM loyalists have realized their dream to separate from Somalia has become an ‘eternal’ fantasy.

 

Ambassador Mahamed Shiekh Hasan Nuuriye oo ka hadaly Ictiraafka Somaliland 2011-Dec-03 Ottawa

 

In a recent video posted on Youtube.com, the champions of the illegitimate secession project admitted the invisibility of the recognition hunt. “Somaliland’s long sought ‘recognition’ endeavors have stalled due to binding international resolutions passed under the United Nations Sovereign Nations Chapter,” said Ambassador Mahamed Shiekh Hasan Nuuriye, Somaliland’s designate ambassador to Addisababa. The ambassador further told his audience, “…I met many ambassadors from European embassies in Addisababa. Almost all of them asked me two questions: is Somaliland a country? Which I responded, yes indeed it’s a functioning democracy, and all government institutions are present. The second question is always, if you’re a prosperous country, why the international community is not recognizing your country? This question of course is the main obstacle and cannot be answered very easily. However, I believe, should Somaliland focus on other tasks such as an economic development program, and if that succeeds, lack of recognition will not hamper our efforts,” Said ambassador Nuuriye. He added, “the international community has long ago passed resolutions intended to protect Somalia’s sovereignty, and these resolutions were passed after the collapse of Somalia’s central government in 1991. The recognition goal can come closer if we seek permission from Somalis, instead of committing our resources to an infinite ambition.”

 

Trying to hide circumstances surrounding the recognition quest, the ambassador blamed the international community’s unpleasant response to have stalled the secession campaign. The ambassador shoved the facts on the side, that most northern Somalis oppose the secession project, a protracted claim pinpointing the ’cause’ and fogging the ‘effect,’ or for that matter, the real face of the secession strategy.

 

Recent drought assistance by the people and government of Somaliland to their brethren in the south, was seen by many, as a precursor that suggested something would come out of the secessionists rabble. The admission of the ambassador and of course his fellow admirers translate to yet another ill-conceived agenda to look other avenues, such as offering bribe to top Transitional Federal Government leaders, known to consist some of the most corrupted politicians Somalia has seen since her independence in the 60s.

 

As secessionists maneuver their unwieldy machine, the greater Somali society realize shared circumstances–perpetuated by 20 years of civil conflict–that benefits of being one nation far outweighs than propping puppet regional administrations, designed and managed by Somalia’s eternal enemies: Ethiopia and Kenya. On the other hand, the war of religious fortunes with many competing components has been taking root in the Horn of Africa, a phenomenon which thought the public that consistent wars only breed another wars.

Mohamud Ahmed

[Liibaan]

 

All Doors Are Slammed On “Somaliland’s” Clan-Secessionist Faces!

 

images1 Twenty long years have elapsed since the one-clan secessionist state called “Somaliland” was declared unilaterally in Burao in 1991 under the blazing guns of the then victorious SNM fighters, following the collapse of the Somali state led by the late Mohamed Siyad Barre. The real objective behind the creation of this phantom state that would never see light of day was to establish primarily a country dominated politically, economically and socially by one clan, the clan that supported SNM through thick and thin.

 

The proponents of this mirage state have never anticipated the consequences of their rather unfortunate decision as they never gave a proper thought to the reactions of unionist clans in the region, or the consequences such a decision may have on the rest of Somalis. Northern Somalia is home to ********** and Dhulbahanti in the east, **** the SNM Clan in the Centre, ********** and Issa in the West and a couple of a smaller clans scattered all over the region. Irrespective of the reactions of regional and international communities, it was always going to be difficult for the SNM clan to install their own fiefdom in the midst of formidable strong unionist clans who always banked the support of other Somali clans in central and southern Somalia to counter such a state.

International recognition hit dead-end

 

In a recent interview with Somalilandpress.com, Dr. Mohamed Abdillahi Omar, the foreign minister and the former lecturer of Brunel University in London, admitted rather diplomatically that the secessionist’s endeavor to gain the much-sought after international recognition had hit difficulties. In other words, it is dead in the water. Without exactly saying the word dead, he mentioned his initially hyped trip to China alongside with Ahmed Silanyo in which tripartite trade deals between China, Ethiopia and “Somaliland” were supposed to be signed had ended in failure for reasons Dr. Omar deliberately avoided to explain but believed to be related to the enclave’s status in the international community.

 

The painful fact is that “Somaliland” cannot enter deals with the outside world because, as far as international community is concerned, they don’t exist. The international community, including regional bodies such as IGAD and Arab league, doesn’t recognize “Somaliland” as a legitimate state. They recognize the TFG of Sheikh Sharif Ahmed as the sole and legitimate government of Somalia. In addition to Dr. Omar’s candid admission, anyone who observed Ahmed Silanyo’s statements during his recent trip to London, Addis Ababa and Djibouti, together with his body language will tell that the most veteran politician in the enclave, who had seen better days in Somalia during a spell of eight years as being a prominent economics minister, may finally be giving up this unattainable dream that exhausted the enclave’s meager resources.

 

Unlike Riyaale, who used to promise the earth as far as international recognition is concerned every time he returned home from personal trips to abroad, often hyped as official trips by “Somaliland” officials, the incumbent Ahmed Silanyo is at least honest enough to show his frustration and share his lack of progress with the public in the attainment of international recognition.

 

His recent after-midnight interview with the “Somaliland” press in which he talked, among other things, the lack of progress in the hunt of international acceptance is another indication that things are not getting better for the secessionists. In fact, things are getting from bad to worse. Despite privately endorsing “Somaliland”, it is an open secret that Ethiopia had never wanted to see another Somali state, albeit “Somaliland”, breathing on its neck, although politicians in Addis are happy to see the continuation of the status quo in the Somali peninsula as it suits them pretty well.

 

Worst of all, Ethiopia has smelled a rat in Ahmed Silanyo’s cabinet and this made things even more complicated than they were under Rayaale’s regime. Zenawi, who was in good terms with Rayaale’s government, sees certain prominent ministers of Ahmed Silanyo’s government, among them Mohamed Hashi Elmi and the departed Dr. Gaboose, as staunch supporters of Somaliweyn (greater Somalia), hence a threat to the Ethiopian sovereignty. Ethiopia, believed to be an honest friend of “Somaliland” rather mistakenly, may have finally pulled the brakes on the secessionist’s runaway train.

SSC and Awdalstate factor

 

The communities of Sool, Sanaag and Cayn as well as Makhir have always detested the idea of one-clan state being erected in their backyard and declared their intention from the get go that they would not entertain such a notion. But the secessionists, having amassed weapons and believed that nobody can withstand with their might, had gone alone with it anyway and formed an administration called “Somaliland” in the former British Somali Protectorate in Northern Somalia.

 

At the height of secession in the early nineties, “Somaliland” supporters in the Diaspora community in the UK were reportedly told by the former British Secretary of State for Overseas Development, Lynda Chalker (now Baroness chalker of Wallassy), that for “Somaliland” project to stand any chance of succeeding, they [secessionists] should bring other northern clans onboard the secession bandwagon, a mammoth task that was always going to be difficult to undertake. Believing that everyone was on their side, the secessionist flatly rejected such a suggestion. So long as SNM had the upper hand militarily, they couldn’t care the feelings of unionist clans. This had created resentment among unionist communities in SSC, Makhir and Awdal.

 

Then as expected came Awdalstate in March 2011, a Diaspora-inspired regional administration that threw the gauntlet to Hargeisa-based authority. Although secessionists have taken Awdalities for granted for reasons only known to them unlike SSC, a simmering resentment was always brewing in the residents of these two regions, particularly among the Diaspora community toward the secession. Awdal and Salel regions are now buzzing with the news that, at long last, an administration of their own had finally arrived, even though still at its infancy. With both SSC and Awdalstate, not to mention Makhirstate, challenging the SNM hegemony on former British Somaliland territories, the secession movement that could not manage a single support from the international community in their favor over a period of twenty years is coming to a grinding halt. All diplomatic doors are slammed on their face as far as international recognition is concerned.

TFG and Mogadishu factor

 

After a long and bloody civil war that has decimated more than half of its population, Mogadishu, the war-ravaged capital of Somalia, is finally emerging from its miserable past. A normal semblance of life is springing up everywhere in the city, not to mention people going out and doing their day-to-day normal chores without looking over their shoulders. Even a Turkish man (BBC report) was spotted cycling in one of the Mogadishu streets as recently as this week, a thing that was unthinkable only a few months ago. Foreign countries are re-opening their missions. The Al-Shabaab terrorist group, which brought death and destruction to the residents of Mogadishu, is on the wane although they can still pose a threat to certain areas of the city and its environs. For a large number of northern Somalia population, this is the news they longed for many years. Should peace continue to prevail in Mogadishu (and it is most likely this time round), there is no reason why many northerners would not contemplate going back to their properties in Mogadishu aka Xamar and re-start a new life.

[Liibaan]

A similar situation occurred during the short spell the Islamic Courts Union (ICU) restored law and order in Mogadishu where almost half of Burao’s residents were believed to be on their toes. The current situation in Mogadishu will encourage business communities in Hargeisa, Burao, Las Anod, Borama, Erigavo and others major cities and towns in the northern Somalia to relocate their business, or at least partially, to Mogadishu, largely due its higher population together with the fact that Mogadishu is the capital of internationally-recognized Somalia. Consequently, it will have a knockdown effect on the population of Hargiesa, the current capital of the secessionists.

 

The secessionist may think this a fantasy, but believe me you things are turning good for Somalia in general and Mogadishu in particular, and every secessionist doubting this fact is living a cloud cuckoo land.

 

In conclusion, if the recent events taking place in “Somaliland” are to be considered very carefully, the wheels are certainly coming off the secessionist campaign. Nothing is going in their way despite using all sorts of tactics, including hiring foreign mercenaries. Exhaustion and fatigue is showing on the faces of all the major shakers and movers of “Somaliland” project, including the top two – Ahmed Silanyo and Dr. Omar.

 

If tenacity and hard work alone can bring international recognition, which was abundant in the secessionist camp, the one-clan state of “Somaliland” would have been celebrated in Hargeisa and Burao many years ago.

 

“Somaliland” politicians had left no stone unturned as far as international recognition is concerned, but what they forgot to understand is the fact that the issue of secession is simply untenable. Nobody is going to buy it, especially when there is no concrete reason for secession is evident. Colonel Ojukwu, who just passed away this week in London after a long illness, tried it before and failed when he had declared a secessionist state called Biafra in Nigeria in 1967. This claimed the lives of more than one million people and ended in failure. After more than decades in the wilderness, colonel Ojukwu redeemed himself and ran for the office of presidency of Nigeria in the 2000s. I hope the current politicians of “Somaliland” will redeem themselves and initiate a constructive dialogue with their counterparts in Mogadishu for the sake of their people as well as for the good of Somali nation as a whole.

Mohamed F Yabarag

[Liibaan]

All is Beginning to Fall Apart in the Clan-Secessionist Enclave of “Somaliland”

 

If the events taking place in Hargeisa and elsewhere in the secessionist enclave by the name of “Somaliland” is anything to go by, the beginning of the end of that hopeless chase of statehood that was never to be is about to come to a disappointing and grinding halt to the utter dismay of its pushers and to the delight of unionist communities.

 

The SNM’s bloody struggle in the eighties to bring all its clan members as well others who do not subscribe to their fantasyland under one state and one flag has dismally failed to materialize in spectacular fashion as the world had turned its back on the secessionists. Evidently, the pressure is now mounting on those who promised the earth to deliver something that their duped people can shout about. And the temperature has reached a boiling point.

 

After twenty years of knocking every door and using international lobbyists as well as political mercenaries in the mold of Dr. Peter Pham and Professor Iqbal Jhazbhay to name a few, international recognition for the secessionists is increasingly becoming as elusive as ever to the extent that the enclave’s self-proclaimed president, Ahmed Silanyo, had to wake up in the dead of the night, when almost everyone else is in profound sleep in Hargeisa to launch a furious and scathing attack against anyone who sprang to his deluded and disturbed mind, including his own fellow secessionists.

 

So what went wrong in the minds of Ahmed Silanyo and his fellow secessionists?

 

Twenty years of chasing an unrealistic and hopeless dream had taken its toll on the current leader of Hargeisa administration and his entourage, especially as all the promises he made during the last presidential election, particularly the much-sought recognition, have all turned sour. After all, this is the man who started the ball rolling for the bloody SNM and held its highest post for more than eight years. If I remind the readers of what Ahmed Silanyo had to say in the last presidential election, here is one of his remarks: “the international community is going to recognize us if we conduct a fair and peaceful election”.

 

Well, a peaceful election had taken place and yet there is no sight of the promised recognition for the secessionists; it is as remote as ever. The prospect of Somalia emerging from its hellish quagmire, together with the international community turning their attention back to the country they left for the wolves for the first time since 1993 has wrong footed secessionist politicians and thrown them into a total confusion and disarray. The recent midnight outburst by Ahmed Silanyo is a clear indication of the pressure cooker he is living in. Although they never admit, the secessionists clearly believe the return of Somalia to its glorious past will be a bad news for their flagging aspiration and that was evident from a conversation I have had with a colleague.

 

Shortly after the Al Shabaab terror group had declared their intention to withdraw their army from Mogadishu (even though they came back with vengeance today to blow away more than sixty innocent young students), I have had a political discourse with my work colleague who happens to be a die-hard supporter of the secessionists. He asked me about this new development in relation to this group’s departure from Mogadishu to which I replied with this: the Al Shabaab withdrawal from Mogadishu could be the turning point of Somalia’s misery and that there is a realistic chance that the country would be back to its feet. With a cynical smile, he said Somalia will never come out of its mess without providing reasons for his rather pessimistic statement.

 

In addition to his rather unfortunate remarks, the expression of his face spoke volumes about his dislike for such an idea, which meant one thing for me: the secessionist will go an extra mile to make sure that Somalia will never find its feet firmly on the ground lest it upsets the balance of power in the Somali peninsula, and most probably in case their own weary people say enough is enough and leave for Mogadishu.

 

It is not only Ahmed Silanyo who is going through a roller coaster of emotions in “Somaliland” these days. The former vice president of the enclave, Ahmed Yusuf Yasin, said the other day in front of a large public gathering that anybody (any clan) campaigning for the return to Somalia should prepare themselves to sacrifice more than five thousand lives, apparently referring to the 1988- 1991 SNM war in which thousands of people have lost their precious lives rather unfortunately. What he failed to realize is the fact that Somali people have already lost more than this number of people in the past decade alone. It is so unfortunate to see a man claiming to be a politician wishing his own fellow Somalis more bloodshed and misery.

 

Without naming names, he was clearly giving veiled warnings to the pro-unionist clans in SSC and Awdal territories who declared their clear intentions that they are not going to be part and parcel of a secessionist state called “Somaliland”. Having failed to achieve their stated objective i.e. the elusive recognition, secessionist politicians seem to be preparing themselves for confrontation in all fronts, including home front where opposing political party leaders are tearing themselves into shreds.

 

It was always clear that “Somaliland’s” quest for international recognition will never see the light of day as no state will fall for their propaganda that they were an independent state before they voluntarily joined their southern brothers; that they were recognized by more than thirty-something countries in June 1960; and that they have a defined territory and a permanent population to name a few criteria that an aspirant state had to satisfy, which is a completely missing in their case.

 

Even the beneficiaries of Somali chaos and mayhem (Ethiopia, Kenya and Uganda) have shied away from throwing their support behind the secessionists in Hargeisa. If one has observed the secessionist’s justifications for curving up northern Somalia from its mother country, one can easily realize how every thing was always hinged on emotions rather than sound basis.

 

“Somaliland” has never been a legal and independent entity that was separate from the rest of Somalia. The *********** and Warsengali in the east and ********** and Issa in the west have never wanted to be part of a state that is not part of Somalia. And that is why the United Somali Party (USP) was jointly formed by ***********, ********** and ********** in early 1960 to counter the Somali National League (SNL) in case the latter opted for outright independence, a frightening prospect for unionist at that particular time.

 

The secessionists in Hargeisa had other viable options than this doomed route that would have helped their unfortunate Somalis as well as themselves. One of those options was to abandon this fathom idea of becoming an independent and sovereign state and bring all Somalis into the negotiating table in the peaceful Hargeisa, the official second capital of Somalia, to seek a lasting solution for the civil strife that had refused to go away for well over two decades. Such a meeting would have stood more chance in succeeding than those dozens or so failed reconciliation conferences sponsored by the international community.

 

Had they taken this path, history would have looked at the current crop of “Somaliland” politicians favorably. In unison with their brothers, they would have achieved much more than they have gained in the past twenty years in isolation. Their big companies such as Dahabshil would have become a global financial institution supported and protected by a recognized government instead of wasting its resources in a city nobody in the outside world wanted to do business with. The enclave’s politicians, who have seen peace and stability over the past two decades, would have a relative and competitive advantage over their counterparts in southern Somalia, unlike the 1960 when the opposite was true.

 

In conclusion, the recent outburst of Ahmed Silanyo and the daily skirmishes between political leaders, together with the countless clan meetings that are taking place up and down the country shows that the secession has reached its climax – its natural demise. Despite the current setback in Mogadishu where the deviant Al Shabaab terror group had planted a car bomb which claimed more than sixty innocent young lives Somalia’s misery, in general, is beginning to come to a gradual end.

 

The emergence of alternative administrations to the Hargeisa regime has given a glimmer of hope the unionist communities in Borama, Las Anod and Erigavo, and become a major headache for Silanyo and his companions whose fears of losing these communities have now become a reality nobody can deny. The comments recently made by Mohamed Rashid, among others, is another indication as to how Awdalstate had rattled Silanyo’s regime. Moreover, the fact that the Hargeisa press is now openly discussing the prospects of Awdalstate in the same length as SSC is an added pressure on the secessionists. All is beginning to unravel in the secessionists’ enclave. Let us hope the see sense and come back to the Somali fold.

Mohamed F. Yabarag