Mogadishu dares to dream

[Shinbir Majabe]

For the first time in two decades, a recognized government has a measure of control of about 90 per cent of the Somalia capital, giving some hope for the future, David Blair reports

 

 

A Somali National Army soldier stands guard in Torfiq market in Mogadishu, where African Union forces have reclaimed much of the city in street battles against militants and fighters from al-Shabaab, the self-proclaimed followers of al-Qaeda in Somalia, since 2007.

 

A gunshot echoed across the jagged shells of homes pulverized by battle. Obeying orders to "watch and shoot," a soldier had taken aim with his machine gun down a road bleached white by the sun, spotted a target and fired a round.

 

Fighters from al-Shabaab, the selfproclaimed followers of al-Qaeda in Somalia, were dug in opposite the green sandbags of this front line position in the country's shattered capital, Mogadishu.

 

This time, however, they fired no answering fusillade across the deserted street that served as "no man's land," sparing the Ugandan soldiers deployed against them. Incidents of this kind are played out every day in Mogadishu, where ordinary Somalis, wearied by years of war, ignore the crack of gunfire.

 

And yet something fundamental has changed in a city that became notorious as the most dangerous capital in the world, and the setting for America's "Black Hawk Down" debacle.

 

For the first time in two decades, a recognized government has a measure of control of about 90 per cent of Mogadishu, including all of its strategic points, notably the airport, seaport and biggest market. Al-Shabaab, which ran most of the city as recently as last year, has been forced out of all but a few pockets.

 

Once, no senior official, let alone a world leader or wealthy businessman, would have risked visiting Mogadishu. In the past four months, the city has hosted Recep Tayyip Erodgan, the Turkish prime minister, Prince Waleed bin Talal, the Saudi billionaire, and Ban KiMoon, who became the first United Nations secretary general to visit for 18 years on Dec 9.

 

Somalia's 25-year civil war is not about to end and the country remains divided between al-Shabaab, the official government, various warlords and the enclaves of Somaliland and Puntland, which have seized de facto independence.

 

Yet the return of some security in Mogadishu, combined with the recognized administration's new control over most of the capital, amounted to a genuine turning point, said Abdiweli Mohammed Ali, the prime minister. "Somalia for the last 20 years became a danger to itself, to its neighbours, to the region and to the entire world," he said. "Now we are getting out of that. We are moving to a different era."

 

Al-Shabaab has proclaimed its loyalty to Osama bin Laden's heirs and launched attacks in Kenya and Uganda. Officials fear that it could send trained bombers as far away as Britain, home to perhaps 300,000 Somalis.

 

Yet the extremists suffered a crucial setback when they were expelled from most of Mogadishu in August, said the prime minister. "Between then and now is the difference between day and night," added Ali. "There was a huge improvement in the area of security."

 

If so, the gains were made by the toil and sacrifice of a new form of military intervention. Bitter memories of "Black Hawk Down" in 1993, when 18 American soldiers died in one battle - with some bodies being dragged through the streets - have kept western armies and UN peacekeepers away from Mogadishu.

 

Instead, the African Union, an alliance of all 53 countries on the continent, has deployed its own force of 9,500 soldiers, drawn from the armies of Uganda and Burundi. Street by street, they have reclaimed most of the city. At another front-line position on the Dayniile road, Burundian troops have pushed al-Shabaab out of the capital altogether.

 

The African troops are fighting bin Laden's heirs without the backup that Western soldiers take for granted, yet this force, known as the African Union Mission in Somalia (AMISOM), has achieved more than America's intervention of 1992-93, with less than a third of the troops.

 

But the price has been severe. While AMISOM refuses to disclose its losses, an informed estimate suggests that about 1,000 troops have been killed since the first deployment in 2007.

 

But the street markets are full and some Somalis voice guarded optimism.

 

"There is still fighting and bombings," said Abdul Rahman, a 21-yearold trader at Fagah junction market. "But I can make money in Mogadishu and the situation is better than before."

 

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