Abtigiis Sings For Zenawi

[Alpha Blondy]

Carafaat;760709 wrote:

ma adiga macalin u ah?

no! he taught at UOH for one semester.

[Abtigiis]

looooooool! What a discovery!! The Director of Teddy's hit song "Yasteserial" which is strongly believed to have led to his arrest (the actual charges were he hit a pedesterian and run away) is one TEMESGEN YALEW. I just read the name. He was my former roomate in Addis Ababa university for 4 years. A pleasant character with unparalled sense of humor. He was carefree too, we had a lot in common. In fact, on the night of graduation, him and three others looked for me in the town, dragged me out of where I was, and forced me to spend the whole night in a nigh-club in Arat Kilo. What a memory.

[NGONGE]

^^ Only you and that heavy-footed xabashi (Passerby) get this.

[yahya007]

abtigiis i don't think u from adisababa university ! just because your English is too good for the educated ethiopians.

[xiinfaniin]

Abtigiis,

 

For you to suggest that Ethiopian occupation is better than the current status qua is a new low. Perhaps the heat of these running arguments you are engaged with the xiin online persona is blinding you to that reality.

 

I suggest you go an empty room, and repeat out loud what you are writing on this forum with respect to foreign armies invading Somalia, and see if you can make sense out of what you are saying .

[xiinfaniin]

US official warns Ethiopia not to invade Somalia, but it's too late

 

Sunday, November 20, 2011

 

 

The State Department's top Africa policymaker on Tuesday warned Ethiopia not to invade Somalia, but the warning came too late, with Somalis claiming that Ethiopian troops were already rolling through their villages in trucks.

 

The statement from Johnnie Carson, the assistant secretary of state for African affairs, was a sign that Washington is growing increasingly wary of a month-old offensive against the Islamist militant group al-Shabab that was launched by Kenya and now appears to include Ethiopia.

 

"We firmly believe that the best way to deal with al-Shabab and the way to restore stability is working with AMISOM militarily, using them as a vehicle to advance security," Carson said in response to a question during a conference call with reporters. AMISOM is the acronym for the African Union peacekeeping mission in Somalia, which is manned mostly by troops from Uganda and Burundi.

 

"I would remind the caller that Ethiopia went into Somalia some four and a half years ago and stayed for approximately two and a half to three years. That effort was not universally successful and led in fact to the rise of Shabab after they pulled out," Carson said.

 

Carson's remarks also could be viewed as a rebuke of Kenya, another U.S. ally in East Africa. Kenyan troops invaded Somalia last month, ostensibly after kidnappings along its border with Somalia. According to U.S. diplomatic cables made public by WikiLeaks, Carson was very critical in 2010 of a Kenyan plan to use proxy Somali militias to go on an offensive against al-Shabab and create space for a regional administration in southern Somalia.

 

U.S. officials say Kenya did not consult them before launching its recent incursion.

 

Now, Somalis say, Ethiopia has joined the fray.

 

Abdi Wehliye, 43, who lives in Gurieel town in central Somalia's Galgudud region, says that fellow townsmen saw Ethiopian troops rolling up on Saturday evening. He saw them Sunday morning 5 kilometers outside town, where he says they have pitched camp. On Sunday, Ethiopian commanders, escorted by a small number of troops, came into the town to meet with local elders and officials, he said.

 

Somalis are notoriously xenophobic when it comes to outside interference in their own affairs, and Somalis view Ethiopia as a historical arch nemesis. That sentiment was used by al-Shabab during Ethiopia's 2006-2008 occupation to rally support for its insurgency.

 

The U.S. is all too aware of that history, having backed Ethiopia's military adventure in 2006. The U.S. itself pulled troops out of Somalia in the early 1990s after they became the targets of regular Somali attacks.

 

Wehliye said, however, that while people don't like Ethiopians, their dismay has been tempered by their anger at al-Shabab for its brutal and ultimately disastrous administrative tactics, which many blame for the devastating famine that is expected to leave hundreds of thousands dead this year in central and southern Somalia. Al-Shabab banned most Western aid and recruits barely teenage boys to fight.

 

"I thought some people would jump and start carrying guns against Ethiopia but it seems they are not yet sure what they want," Wehliye said in a phone interview. "Many Somalis hate al Shabab for what they have done to them and their families."

 

Ethiopian troops have also entered central Somalia's Hiraan region, said a resident of Beledweyne town who asked to be identified only as Hussein for security reasons. He said that al-Shabab had treated Somalis like "slaves in our own country" and that he welcomed the Ethiopians, who he said had arrived near Beledweyne in five trucks in recent days.

 

"I support anyone who helps us fight al-Shabab. We want to get our freedom back. Al-Shabab are the ones who brought this entire problem on us. They are the reason so many countries want to invade Somalia," he said.

 

Not everyone reached by phone seemed keen on an Ethiopian presence, however, a fact that U.S. officials are certain to seize on to discourage a prolonged presence inside Somalia. The Ethiopian government has categorically denied that its troops have entered Somalia.

 

Waeys Ahmed, who is also from Gurieel, said he would be happy to see al-Shabab "wiped out."

 

"But with Ethiopia and Kenya coming to fight al-Shabab, I don't think it's good for the interest of Somalis. They have their own agendas," he said. "This is taking us back to where we were in 2007, when al-Shabab enjoyed more support from the population."

 

The Somali government, which from its limited control in Mogadishu can do little about the arrival of foreign troops, has struggled to find the right tone in responding to the incursions.

 

On Tuesday, Somalia government spokesman Abdirahman Omar Osman said that while Kenya is welcome because it entered into an agreement with his government, Ethiopia is not.

 

"We are a sovereign country, so foreign troops cannot enter without bilateral agreement or a legal mandate," Osman said.

 

But he also said he was taking the Ethiopian denials at face value, despite what Somali residents say.

 

"There are no Ethiopian troops on our soil," he said.

[Abtigiis]

Yahya,

 

Thanks brother. To say you write like an Ethiopia would have been a huge insult But I went there and the scars are still with me. If I went to a better place, I wouldn't have been restricted to SOL and arguments with Oodweyne.

 

Xinnfanin,,

 

For you to call a victim of Meles like me an ethio-lover is a not only insensitive, it is deeply offensive. Adeer, I have lost many family members to Meles and I am certainly not exposed to "Stockholm Syndrome" - a rare psychological phenomena where victims start to love their victimizers. I still hate him with passion. But I believe the biggest menace to Somalia more than Meles is Alshabab. Meles wants Alshabab and my only worry is he may have gone to Somalia to disrupt the ongoing operations against the terrorists. He is already rallying warlords for his cause,including Mohamed Dheere and it is not something I like.

[xiinfaniin]

^^Adeer admit it at best you are carried away with your opposition to Alshabaab. You need to regain your sense of moderation and accept geopolitical realities in the horn. You may not be singing to Zenawi in the literal sense but by adopting this nonsensical argument of 'anything but alshabaab', which trivializes the whole struggle Somalis have been facing for the last twenty years, you are becoming a useful ***** for regional ambitions, Ethiopia included.

 

You thought Kenya's incursion was a heartfelt, neighborly gesture to help Somalia get rid off alshabaab menace. We told you otherwise. Predictably Ethiopia followed suit, and you are now telling us that you don't like the incarnation of warlords, slowly emerging along Ethiopian tanks.

 

My bashfulness does not allow me to call you the fool you are. however, if truth were to boldly told, what you wrote, good Abtigiis, was quite foolish.

[Abtigiis]

We know what is at stake perhaps more than you. We are closer to the center of the theatre than you, and we certainly can analyze things the way you do. We also are in many ways insiders to what is going on, by virtue of the cursed work we do for a living. So, none of what you are saying are new. We know all of this, but anything but Alshabab, I say. I prefer warlords to Alshabab. Ending Alshabab is not the end, it is a phase. Whatelse do you have to tell? For you, Ethiopian modus operandi in Somalia is a matter of analysis and adding one to two; for us we know it from the horse's mouth wh

[xiinfaniin]

Abtigiis,

 

If you prefer warlords to alshabaab, and think Ethiopian and Kenyan occupations are good for Somalia, then your protest my good friend is not warranted. The positions you stake and stances you take have consequences and as such the quandary in your argument is that you want to make a distinction without a difference. Ethiopia and Kenya, if they succeed, will reinstate warlords and create new clannish statelets, which will in turn cultivate the political ground anew for alshabaab. That is not only xiin analysis---it is the experience from other conflicts were foreign armies intervened. It is what impartial analysts are saying. So you gotta be comfortable with your position; your arguments match, nay support, that of Mohamed Dheere and Dabageed. It shows the intellectual bankruptcy of 'anything but alshabaab'

[xiinfaniin]

^^Not a bad call.

 

I am on my heels as I race to exit the building and head home for a long, Thanksgiving weekend. So let me brief:

 

Two scenarios I can foresee:

 

1- Foreign armies succeed in driving alshabaab out of current strongholds and erect friendly statelets or militias

 

2- Foreign armies get bogged down and fail, resorting to find a face saving exit, leaving behind a much emboldened alshabaab

 

In my opinion both scenarios will leave behind a more polarized, divided, Somalia with perhaps no TFG to symbolize a cohesive political framework. And this is why I am so passionately opposed the new intervention.

 

And with that I yield the floor to my good friend Prof Abtigis, waa inoo Isniinta haddii alle idmo ya jamacah

[Carafaat]

I agree with Xiin on these two scenario's

 

1. But even if Al Shabaab is driven out and militia's/Azania step in. Al Shabaab can continue with insurgency and terrorism creating more fear and resentment(see the example of Iraq/Afghanistan). And if not all stakeholders, clans claiming the region are on board with the polical platform/Azania then the insurgency might increase making governance more difficult, so that foreign troops presence is stil needed which in turn might justify the insurgency for Al Shabaab supporters.

 

2. And if the foreign troops withdraw. There still will be a weakened Al Shabaab and militia's fighting. And even in this case you need to unite all the people in the region and create support an alternative political platform to Al Shabaab. And as the TFG isnt suited anymore to function as the symbolic cohesive political framework that can bring all stakeholders together which is needed to fill the political vacuum. Therefor the clans claiming the region and the city of Kismaayo need to come as soon as possible with an inclusive political platform supported by the clans in the region to fill the vacuum that will be left by Al Shabaab. It doesnt need to be Azania, as long as it is an all inclusive political platform that has the support of all the people and is created as soon as possible. There is already a vacuum left by Al Shabaab in Gedo and the parts in Jubba's cleared by the Kenyan's.

 

So that is why I have earlier suggested that even if people oppose the Kenyan invasion, one should still support Azania for now. Because the political vacuum left by Al Shabaab has to be filled rather sooner then later.

[Abtigiis]

xiinfaniin;760922 wrote:

^^Not a bad call.

 

I am on my heels as I race to exit the building and head home for a long, Thanksgiving weekend. So let me brief:

 

Two scenarios I can foresee:

 

1- Foreign armies succeed in driving alshabaab out of current strongholds and erect friendly statelets or militias

 

2- Foreign armies get bogged down and fail, resorting to find a face saving exit, leaving behind a much emboldened alshabaab

 

In my opinion both scenarios will leave behind a more polarized, divided, Somalia with perhaps no TFG to symbolize a cohesive political framework. And this is why I am so passionately opposed the new intervention.

 

And with that I yield the floor to my good friend Prof Abtigis, waa inoo Isniinta haddii alle idmo ya jamacah

And where does the UN and Mahiga came into this scenarios? Can Xinn elaborate. I thought all along he was saying the TFG is a cohesive political framework. And whose framework it is? What can spare scenario 1 if that is what the founders and funders of the TFG is what they want?

 

Xin's opposition to foeign armies doesn't mean much. They are already in, and with the blessing of the TFG. So, is he saying the choice is between scenario 1 and 2? I take scenario 1. Period. We already have "friendly statelets" in the form of Somaliland and Puntland.We will cure the disease and contamination brought by the new "statelets" the same way we cure the Somailand and Puntland ones. Maanta miyeyna Ethiopia far ugu yeedhin Puntland iyo Somaliland? Markaa ma maamulo dheeraad ah oo abuurma ayaa dhib hor le oo aan ina haysan hadda soo kordhin doona? Personally, I don't support new regional states; i don't like federalism. But I will take anything but Alshabab. People wake up and go to bed in peace in the Ethiopian "bantustans" of Puntland and Somalia. They fare better than the areas Alshabab control. As to the grand idea of bringing th central State of somalia back, it is a different discussion, which will not be served by either of the Scenarios Xinn is giving.

 

But I think the two scenarios are false. The TFG cannot beat Alshabab without external help. And I (if not Xinn) know that the UN will not be working to support a strong somali national army to do the job of fighting Alshabab. The solution is to take scenario 1, and try to move from there without suffering the reflexive charge of "a terrorist" country. It is easy to deal with Kenya and Amisom. The big issue is Ethiopia, but one step at a time. If we have to launch a genuine Somalai Re-liberation Front (with no religious objectives), so be it. But we cannot allow Alshabab to control the country and kill the nation. We can talk sense to warlords, bribe them, but we can not deal with people who think they are doing God's bidding.

 

Xinnoow Farooole is accountable to Addis Abab more than Sheikh Sharif. Iska daa dalwad-goboleedyo hor leh oo dhalannayee, first Puntland Ethiopia ka soo jar oo talada soomalida ogolaysii. If Meles tells Faroole to stop cooperating with Shiekh Sharif, he will do. So, maxaad scenario hada aan ku jiro oo na haysata uga dhigaysaa wax soo socda oo dadka ugu cabsiinaysaa?

[caydarus]

Abtigiis;760982 wrote:

And where does the UN and Mahiga came into this scenarios? Can Xinn elaborate. I thought all along he was saying the TFG is a cohesive political framework. And whose framework it is? What can spare

scenario 1

if that is what the founders and funders of the TFG is what they want?

 

Xin's opposition to foeign armies doesn't mean much. They are already in, and with the blessing of the TFG. So, is he saying the choice is between scenario 1 and 2? I take scenario 1. Period.

We already have "friendly statelets" in the form of Somaliland and Puntland.We will cure the disease and contamination brought by the new "statelets" the same way we cure the Somailand and Puntland ones. Maanta miyeyna Ethiopia far ugu yeedhin Puntland iyo Somaliland? Markaa ma maamulo dheeraad ah oo abuurma ayaa dhib hor le oo aan ina haysan hadda soo kordhin doona?

Personally, I don't support new regional states; i don't like federalism. But I will take anything but Alshabab. People wake up and go to bed in peace in the Ethiopian "bantustans" of Puntland and Somalia. They fare better than the areas Alshabab control. As to the grand idea of bringing th central State of somalia back, it is a different discussion, which will not be served by either of the Scenarios Xinn is giving.

 

But I think the two scenarios are false. The TFG cannot beat Alshabab without external help. And I (if not Xinn) know that the UN will not be working to support a strong somali national army to do the job of fighting Alshabab. The solution is to take scenario 1, and try to move from there without suffering the reflexive charge of "a terrorist" country. It is easy to deal with Kenya and Amisom. The big issue is Ethiopia, but one step at a time. If we have to launch a genuine Somalai Re-liberation Front (with no religious objectives), so be it. But we cannot allow Alshabab to control the country and kill the nation. We can talk sense to warlords, bribe them, but we can not deal with people who think they are doing God's bidding.

 

Xinnoow Farooole is accountable to Addis Abab more than Sheikh Sharif. Iska daa dalwad-goboleedyo hor leh oo dhalannayee, first Puntland Ethiopia ka soo jar oo talada soomalida ogolaysii. If Meles tells Faroole to stop cooperating with Shiekh Sharif, he will do. So, maxaad scenario hada aan ku jiro oo na haysata uga dhigaysaa wax soo socda oo dadka ugu cabsiinaysaa?

 

If the future doesn't come toward you, you have to go fetch it,If we do not stop oppression when it is a seed, it will be very hard to stop when it is a tree (al-shabaab).If we stand tall it is because we stand on the shoulders of our neighbours .Injustice anywhere is a threat to justice everywhere because al-qaeda is a threat to the world.The greatest threat to freedom is to keep al-shabaab in somalia and in africa at large so is not good to criticise everthing because our neighbours are just helping us to make sure somali pple enjoy their rights. Abtigiis well said keep it up.

[Abtigiis]

The thing I like about the Guru (Oodweyne) is that with him you kill some arguments, park some, and move to others. With Xinn, you are stuck on one item, without moving forward or backward or sideways, like an old lorry caught in mud. You screech with one unchanging sound, going in rhythmically encoded crescendo. I like what Oodweyne is saying and I sign on it.

 

Someone said pessimism is a sure game. You cannot lost at it; you may gain. It is the only view of life you can never be disappointed. And Xinn knows this because all he has to offer is two pessimistic scenarios. Whatever works for the better , there will always be things that will go wrong and Xinn will wait on the roadside to jump on whatever calamity befalls Somalia; to say he has foreseen it. Remember far more than the welfare of Somalia, what matters most to Xinn is to be found consistent, even prophetic. If you base your premises on conspiracy theories, and your conclusions on pessimism, it is hard to lose.

 

I fully agree with Oodweyne’s conclusions. I think for any Somalia to come back, Alshabab must be finished first. But then the real task starts post-Ashababa. And there are many permutations and possibilities about what could follow. One cannot formulate policies without making some key assumptions. What are Xinn’s assumptions about the International Communities plan about Somalia? Will they help a post-Alshabab Somalia to regain statehood or will they abandon it like they did in the last 20 years? That informs what we should expect in post-Alshabab Somalia. I believe there are enough industrious Somalis who can make Somalia attractive for some big power, if not for humanity sake, for resources sake. But Oodweyne’s outcome of a Somalia with tens of statelets is a possibility too. But even that is better than nonstop mayhem. With the foreign-backed statelets scenario, there is chance things can work. A slim probability. With Alshabab-takeover, there is none. When Xinn’s dogmatic one-line jingos become even too disgusting for him, he usually goes to borrowed poetry lines for salvation. I think we have reached there, and brace for few lines about the fool who mistook fog for real clouds and whatnot.

 

As an aside, if Somalis want to tackle Ethiopias menace, it is easy. It is unmanly and cheap to cry about Ethiopia, as if that impoverished country cannot be challenged. All they have to do is allow those who are fighting Ethiopia to operate in Somalia. All they have to do is take the fight to Meles by threating his rule through support to groups that fight him. Or even threaten to do that. Meles is a man sitting on a rickety chair and will think twice if Somalis threaten to reciprocate his actions in kind. Millions of Amhara and Oromo and ONLF people will gladly descend on Somalia to take the fight to Addis Ababa.