U.S Concerns About Kenya's Jubba Campaign(in early 2010)

[Dabrow]

xiinfaniin;758963 wrote:

^^How charitable

:D

 

Don't read too much into forum discussions. Just a good advice

I will consider your advice although i don't see the relevance of it to this topic or what we have talked about.

[xiinfaniin]

^^I don't usually advise dhoocilaha like you, but I am in a good mood today so consider and take it adeer .

[GoldCoast]

The Americans do not fully support the invasion at all. This is not to say the Americans are a benevolent power but the facts speak for themselves. Do you recall Ethiopia going on a world tour begging for support/funds when it entered Somalia in 2007? If it was a fully American supported incursion at the very least, the Kenyans would not have to asked half the world to foot the bill for it publicly.

 

Its clear from the latest developments that the Kenyans have acted almost unilaterally here.I'm sure the Americans will share intelligence with them and help them where they can, but they share the same apprehensions they did in 2010. BTW there are columnists, and academics who write on State Dep/Pentagon affairs with close links with them, that have stated the same. Both publicly and anonymously the refrain has been the same. Contrary to popular belief, there is no such thing as secret conspiracies. If they were behind this it would come out one way or another, as have its drone campaigns and its previous incursions.

[Dabrow]

xiinfaniin;758968 wrote:

^^I don't usually advise

dhoocilaha

like you, but I am in a good mood today so consider and take it adeer .

I'm not little girl, i'm your brother so I urge you that you show some respect.

[xiinfaniin]

^^Dhoocil is not an slander so don't take that way. You are as I said a little girl with poor English.

 

Respect is mutual adeer .

[Dabrow]

xiinfaniin;758971 wrote:

^^Dhoocil is not an slander so don't take that way. You are as I said a little girl with poor English.

 

Respect is mutual adeer .

I dont have disrespected you but merely pointed out about your naive statement that did not make sense. I have my reasons for speaking bad english, i'm multiple langauge speaker. But you have no excuse for your disrespect and your naiv thinking.

[xiinfaniin]

^^OK my bad you are not dhoocil. Apologies for calling you dhoocil. I think the proper description of you is Foodley

 

And there is difference. And you should know the place of Foodleys is with their prospective Kurays . So go away seek one

[Dabrow]

I'm staying here adeer!

[xiinfaniin]

^^LOL

 

Certainty, with Foodleys like you staying here the quality of this forum will suffer greatly.

[Dabrow]

I'm not sure what you mean by Foodleys but the sabotager of quality in this forums, is you and ppl should not look further then this thread to find your "quality" posts. Thats a big LOL!

[GoldCoast]

Whatever the actual political motivations of this new effort, military force is unlikely to solve Somalia’s Problems

 

When political leaders call for the application of military force, it is always useful to assess the intended political and military objectives. Quite often, those objectives are reactionary, ephemeral, or unachievable given the resources committed and the political will of decision makers. The unexpected invasion by Kenyan forces into Somalia to defeat the notorious militant group, al-Shabaab, offers such an opportunity to analyse the motives and potential outcomes of this use of force.

 

What are the intended objectives of the Kenyan military in Somalia?

 

 

 

On October 16, government spokesperson Alfred Mutua said Kenyan troops are “pursuing al-Shabaab across the border.” A few days later, he claimed that the Kenyan military would “track down and dismantle the al-Shabaab.” Meanwhile, an anonymous Kenyan official declared, “They’re going all the way to Kismayo [an al-Shabaab-controlled port 155 miles from the Kenyan border]. We’re going to clear the Shabaab out.”

 

The rapid escalation of military objectives leads to another question: why exactly did Kenya invade Somalia?

 

The invasion was initially justified as a response to three kidnappings of westerners in northern Kenya over the past month. Two of those kidnapping attempts resulted in the deaths of a fifty-eight year old British tourist and a sixty-six year old disabled French tourist.

 

It is understandable that Kenya would seek to protect its tourist industry, which has seen its revenues grow by one-third to US$737 million since the post-election violence of 2008. Moreover, the specific threat to Westerners is concerning since they make up the overwhelming majority of tourists who vist Kenya.

 

However, Mutua has since admitted that the kidnapping rationale was actually a “good launchpad,” and that plans for the invasion had “been in the pipeline for a while.” Another anonymous senior Kenyan official added: “This isn’t about tourism. This is about our long-term development plan. Kenya cannot achieve economically what it wants with the situation the way it is in Somalia.”

 

What is the likelihood of successfully achieving the intended objectives?

 

The strength of al-Shabaab militants, who are suspected of kidnapping Western tourists, ranges from 3,000 to an unbelievably specific 14,426. In August, al-Shabaab withdrew from Mogadishu to avoid direct combat with the 8,000 AMISOM troops stationed there. Since then, al-Shabaab has re-focused its insurgent activities against the Transitional Federal Government and international aid agencies to the west and south of the capital. The UN Secretary General’s latest report on Somalia noted that al-Shabaab “maintained a significant presence in the [Gedo and Juba] regions” of southern Somalia bordering Kenya. The report also correctly predicted that “al-Shabaab’s use of terrorist tactics and asymmetric warfare is likely to increase.”

 

Within less than two weeks of fighting, approximately 1,500 Kenyan troops backed by tanks and helicopter gunships--with the support of some Somali militias--have captured Shabaab-controlled towns and forced the insurgents to temporarily disperse. However, due to heavy seasonal rains, the logistical support required to sustain and advance Kenyan troops has become overwhelmed. Given the relatively modest commitment of forces, as well as the stated opposition to the invasion by the internationally-recognised Somali President, Sharif Sheik Ahmed, it is inconceivable that Kenyan forces will permanently “clear out” al-Shabaab, much less prevent their return.

 

What support is Kenya receiving from the United States?

 

Initially, many believed that Kenya coordinated its invasion with the Pentagon, in a similar fashion as Ethiopia in December 2006, when the United States provided detailed intelligence, military training, and naval support. This perception was further reinforced when the U.S. ambassador to Kenya, Scott Gration, told the Financial Times: “We are looking to see how, as an ally in this conflict on terrorism, can we help the Kenyans.”

 

However, several U.S. officials have explicitly denied coordination with the Kenyan military or any contribution of direct military support. An unnamed senior U.S. official noted the absence of “U.S. military strikes in Somalia at all recently.” The State Department clarified the official U.S. position on October 25, stating: “The United States is not participating in Kenya’s current operation in Somalia.”

 

Over the past three decades of civil war in Somalia, the international community has been consistently allured by the use of military force to “solve” the myriad problems related to humanitarianism, piracy, terrorism, and--most recently--tourism. Although all attempts thus far have failed, it hasn’t prevented the idea from resurfacing.

 

In late 2008, the Bush administration debated using naval cruise missiles and drone strikes against on-shore bases in Somalia with the intended objective of ending the persistent problem of piracy. When asked his opinion of such options, Vice Admiral William Gortney, then-commander of the U.S. 5th Fleet, warned: “I see people trying to look for an easy military solution to a problem that demands a non-kinetic solution.” When assessing Kenyan objectives in Somalia, history repeats itself.

 

Micah Zenko is a Fellow in the Center for Preventive Action at the Council on Foreign Relations, and author of Between Threats and War: U.S. Discrete Military Operations in the Post-Cold War World.

 

 

http://www.cfr.org/kenya/s-wrong-kenyas-invasion-somalia/p26517

 

 

From a fellow at the Council on Foreign Relations, a think tank that greatly influences American foreign policy.

[xiinfaniin]

^^Good analysis from Micah Zenko

 

Dabrow, are u hurt? Such is the fate of doc-ka-yeer Foodleys. And speaking of the quality of this forum i am beginning to think you are not only a Foodley but a call Foodley one; doing other men's bidding.

 

The pressure is on this call girl

[Dabrow]

xiinfaniin;759006 wrote:

^^Good analysis from Micah Zenko

 

Dabrow, are u hurt? Such is the fate of doc-ka-yeer Foodleys. And speaking of the quality of this forum i am beginning to think you are not only a Foodley but a call Foodley one; doing other men's bidding.

 

The pressure is on this call girl

No i'm fine and laughing about this foodley thing you have going. But you are mad at me for simple pointing out your s-tupidity(let us call it for what is) on this subject so you resorted to name-calling and disrespectful and un-intelligent debate.

If you are not capable of dicussing the topic, its fine. I would not be suprised; considering your posts in this threads. I'm beginning to think you are the foodley. I have been reading on this forum for years without participation...and it comes to my mind all the foodley caravans you have been in drive seat before. Dont call me for what you are.

[xiinfaniin]

^^Oh now you doubt my debating skills

 

I think you are hurt. That is why it is never safe to choose a call girl as profession , you do other men's bidding , and there is a risk of becoming a victim.

 

I don't believe Foodleys have the capacity to read this forum for years without participation , I think you are just tryin' deflect the heat of being called out for what you are , a Foodley troll

[Abdul]

Anybody knows where Mahiga is and his stance on kenya's invasion?