If Kenya Succeeds, Who Will Rule the Jubbas?

[Mintid Farayar]

Kenya's political gamble in Somali border regions

Francois Ausseill

15 November 2011

Agence France Presse

English

Copyright Agence France-Presse, 2011 All reproduction and presentation rights reserved.

 

Kenya's hopes of creating a border buffer zone in southern Somalia called Azania have been raised by its military incursion there last month, but analysts warn of high risks of such a political gamble.

 

While the Kenyan government has said it sent its troops and tanks across the border to target Islamist Shebab rebels, analysts say the move appears to be aimed at setting up a proxy administration and region of control.

"It is understandable why the Kenyan government would want a buffer between themselves and the chaos in Somalia in general and any spillover of Al-Shebab’s militancy in particular," said J. Peter Pham of the Atlantic Council think-tank.

 

Creating some stability in Somalia's border region would also provide Kenya with a strong argument to relieve the vast Somali refugee population it hosts including Dadaab, the world's largest refugee complex.

"I think that the strategic objective for Kenya is basically to see those camps shut down and the people go back to their country," said Rashid Abdi of the International Crisis Group.

"Kenya is a signatory to the refugee convention and the humanitarian laws, so it cannot force refugees back home."

 

For over two years Kenya has trained troops supposed to form the backbone of a new security administration inside Somalia, covering the southern regions of Gedo, Lower and Middle Juba, together also known as Jubaland.

The head of that administration in waiting is former Somali defence minister Mohamed Abdi Mohamed -- also known as Gandhi -- a French-educated academic.

"He has a very huge challenge in front of him. ... Gandhi has credibility and his name has not been tarnished, but he has not done enough grassroot political networking," Abdi said.

"He is very much disconnected," he said, adding: "Now there is a security reason for that: he cannot travel as much as he wants inside Somalia."

The declaration of Gandhi as leader and the formal establishment of Azania was announced in Kenya in April, a month after Kenyan-backed troops failed to make military headway in southern Somalia.

 

But Ghandi, who not only comes from the diaspora but also a minority sub-clan in the area, faces potential reluctance of neighbour Ethiopia and the Somali government to back his efforts.

"This is not someone who has blood on his hands as others have, but in Somalia, I'm not sure he carries much political weight," said Roland Marchal of the Paris-based National Centre for Scientific Research.

"The fact that he has been a member of the diaspora for many years, belongs to a minority clan and is very secular in what he says" could weaken his position in a Somali context, Marchal said.

"So Gandhi needs a helping hand from the Kenyan army," he added.

Even if he can win a partial victory over the Shehab, Azania would face the rivalry of other powerful militias, including the Ras Kamboni fighters of Ahmed Madobe, from the main ‘ONLF’ clan branch in the region.

 

To complicate matters further, senior Kenyan military officials have close links with Madobe -- who sees supporting minority clans, including the ‘ONLF sub-branch’ of Gandhi, as a potentially risky move.

Until Gandhi "actually raises a credible military force that can take control of the region’s claimed territory away from the militants, "Jubaland" remains nothing more than a fantasy played out by ineffectual Somali politicians marooned in Nairobi," Pham said.

 

Then in Gedo, an anti-Shebab militia from the ‘Gedo’ clan called Ahlu Sunna wal Jamaa -- backed financially and military by neighbouring Ethiopia -- have indicated they would reject the authority of an Azania "government."

In addition, the potential lucrative income from the Shebab-held port city of Kismayo could trigger fierce battles between rival militia armies -- if ever the Shebab fighters are indeed driven out as Kenya hopes.

Pham also noted that even if a buffer zone is established, its creation is already too late, warning that the Shebab had operatives inside Kenya.

"Even if the ‘government’ of ‘Jubaland’ helps seal off the Kenyan border, how much that would actually improve the security situation remains to be seen given that the threat is already in place."

Agence France-Presse

[xiinfaniin]

With the backing of Kenyan army, Azania will. But I don't see the Kenyan invasion succeeding. If anything it will boost alshabaab.

[Mintid Farayar]

This article raises the same question I asked a week ago regarding the looming conflict between Madoobe and Gandhi (if the operation is succesful). Gandhi has French support but doesn't seem to have the grassroots touch and 'laandheernimo' of Madobe (as inept as Madoobe seems dealing with non-Somalis). The Gedo constituency seems to be waiting in the wings waiting to see which way the initial ball rolls. Not to mention your 'Caanoole' boys who have been quiet lately.

[Mintid Farayar]

On a side note, it's scary how every Tom, Dick, and Harry is becoming familiar with internal Somali clan/sub-clan dynamics...

[The Zack]

This dude has no clue of what he is writing about. In a nutshell, the article is crap!

[xiinfaniin]

^^LOOL@caanoole boys

 

How ignorant! There is no caanoole boys awoowe, it was one time militia formed in the days of warlord Barre. But if you referring to the other block of Kismayo, they are thriving and doing well.

[Mintid Farayar]

Thriving under Al Shabaab, if your lamentations at how the peace of Kismayo was being destroyed by the Kenyan invasion are to be interpreted. Seems they made their peace with the 'Keligii Muslims'. Business above all else, eh?

[xiinfaniin]

You sound confused just like the author whose write up you posted. You need 101 on local politics. Why don't you consult with Gabal, the other confused fellow in these boards.

 

On a side note, the rift between Madoobe and Gandhi is greatly exaggerated. Kenya's invasion is primarily a military one hence both militias are in cahoots with the Kenyan army. Ethiopia is too far from the border to have any meaningful impact on Jubbooyinka. If they could help anyone Barre would have captured the city of Baardheere by now.

[NGONGE]

Xiin, saaxiibo have you not noticed how confused everyone that argues with you is? Talo maxa nago wada dhacay ninyaho?

[SayidSomal]

NGONGE;758612 wrote:

Xiin, saaxiibo have you not noticed how confused everyone that argues with you is? Talo maxa nago wada dhacay ninyaho?

:D

[A_Khadar]

When or Will they ever?

[Abtigiis]

NGONGE;758612 wrote:

Xiin, saaxiibo have you not noticed how confused everyone that argues with you is? Talo maxa nago wada dhacay ninyaho?

looooooooooooooooooooooool! :D In the name of Xinn, the mist, the journey! lol! hayayabaa sidaa weeyee!

[xiinfaniin]

NGONGE, for some one who is on a one hand a Somali citizen with keen interest in the goings of Somalia, and on another hand, a citizen of a democratic country called Somaliland that has very little in common with the 'koonfurian' tragedy of Somalia, confused is the only description I could find.

 

And when one has to respond to Mintid, a man who writes more grammar than truth and delves in topics he knows very little about, and then one cannot help but notice the confusion at work

 

 

NGONGE;758612 wrote:

Talo maxa nago wada dhacay ninyaho?

Read above...

[xiinfaniin]

Prof. Abtigiis subax wanaagsan, saaka xaggee ciidankii Kenya marayaa awoowe ?

[Jacpher]

xiinfaniin;758627 wrote:

Prof. Abtigiis subax wanaagsan, saaka xaggee ciidankii Kenya marayaa awoowe

?

:D

 

Yahuud baa loo qeylo dhaansaday si dhooqada looga gudbo. Let's see how far they'll make before the next rainy season.