The Fallacy of Foriegn Benevolence

[Mintid Farayar]

xiinfaniin;754189 wrote:

^^

:D

 

Great post. But it confuses the issues as Johnny B called it out. AMISOM is a security arrangement that reflects the lack of genuine Somali institutions. It did not invade Somalia. It came through UN sanctioned mandate, narrow mandate at that. It is an issue nevertheless that needs to be addressed. And I am sure once Somali capacity is improved through whatever means, AMISOM will not be a difficult issue to solve. But equating AMISOM to the full Kenyan invasion is simply ignoring the facts.

How so, Xiin? Are you aware of what a windfall the AMISOM involvement has been for the Ugandan military? How much it's added to a poor African country's economy? The state-of-the-art armaments and latest tactical training it's brought to the Ugandan military? The increasing subsidizing of Musevani's defense budget (which is always the largest in most countries)? The political power it gives Uganda where it can effectively compete with Ethiopia as the regional hegemon?

 

Do you believe that will be willingly given up by Musevani who faces increasing opposition in his home base? This is the key to his relevancy. And now he would like to increase it to 15,000 from 12,000. The whole Somali military in its heyday in the late 70's was 50,000.

 

Chew on that.....

[xiinfaniin]

^^Yes I am aware all of that.

I am also aware the fact that the AMISOM mandate become a cover for all sorts of shady contracts and sinister mercenaries in the name of fighting terror. Without going back to what necessitated this AMISOM security arrangement, I still think as soon Somalis get out of this transitional status, this can be tackled. And it would be an easier task than had it been forces from neighboring countries.

 

Of course like most Somalis I would have these AMISOM folks sent back to their homes if it was up to me. Reality is there is a lack of capable security forces, and if Turkey helps us train about 3000-7000, I think we could be in a position to take some of the functions AMISOM is doing today.

 

The point I was trying to make was there is a difference between an invasion and deployment with clear mandate and terms.

[GoldCoast]

Bigger issue than AMISOM itself, is that the TFG has not proven the ability to pick up on its military gains from the ground up. Until it proves otherwise and functions as a relevant governing structure, I can't be too optimistic about their future. Its always been repeated that if military gains aren't matched with political ones, problems are unlikely to be solved. What proof is there that the political part of this equation has any credibility?

[Che -Guevara]

Johnny...The TFG has been in existence in 2004 and in that long period has not managed to establish itself even with the help of foriegn forces including AMISOM. Theoretically, AMISOM's mandate is to help Somalia till such time that Somalia Government has the capacity to render its services and obligations towards its citizens without any hindrance. Even if I was to agree with you on AMISOM mandate, the question is has AMISOM's presence helped the Somalia in building capacity in terms of national security and to lesser extent social services? In the larger context, does the presence of the international community including our neighbors helped the TFG in meeting its obligations.

 

What Somalia needs is not government in name or government whose existence is determined by the President, Prime-Minister and the Speaker and the presence of foriegn forces. What Somalia and Somalis need are institutions that deliver services,exert control, and protect the country's sovereignty. The international community and AMISOM have not helped Somalia or TFG in building capacity to the point that AMISOM becomes irrelevant.

 

Take for example Somalia's security apparatus, Xiin posted an article about Pland's security services being send to Uganda for training. This is to enhance Pland's and by extension Somalia's ability to provide security for its people. Now if there was genuine effort to help Somalis in building institutional capacity, why would thousands of Somali recruits be send to foriegn lands? Couldn't they be trained in Somalia at fraction of the cost? Couldn't the rest of the money be used to equip them and pay their salaries. Does it make sense that hundreds of millions are spent on AMISOM while the Somali troops could barely feed themselves and resort to selling their weapons to the very people that they are suppose to be fighting?

 

The scheme of sending thousands of Somali recruits to Uganda, Ethiopia, Kenya and Jabouti is clear example, this is mashruuc for other stakeholders. None of this is being done to enable the TFG to achieve dominance or prove itself to be real government. The presence does not help the TFG. Resources that would have gone to the TFG are diverted to AMISOM and the TFG with its weak leaders and divisions is not in position to object to any decision made by third parties.

 

If the idea is to defeat AS, in my estimation, this could only be done through two ways, one is to have capable and unified Somali force that could stand up to it. This of course requires political will and willingness to compromise and win over other Somali stakeholders including the Ethiopian backed Ahlu Sunnah, Pland and even the secessionist. I see no Somali leaders that is both willing and able to unite different factions for common cause. The other option and more realistic one is to coopt all or elements of AS into the TFG. The success in Xamar and mishandling of the famine have created splits in AS and some could have been persuaded to abandon the cause. The invasion and I hope you would stop calling it incursion gave new lease of life for AS. It is counterproductive and couldn't come at worst time for TFG and our people as we are suffering severe famine and TFG was beginning to look abit competent.

 

This invasion undermines the TFG and exposes lack of political will.

 

Abtagiis...You talk about Somalis as if you are removed from them. They are just like you who made chooses to deliberately support a group at the expense of our national interest. Admittedly, this includes me as well.

[Che -Guevara]

For those saying Kenya is merely reacting to recent kidnappings.

 

Kenyan Motives in Somalia Predate Recent Abductions

 

By JEFFREY GETTLEMAN

Published: October 26, 2011

 

NAIROBI, Kenya — The Kenyan government revealed on Wednesday that its extensive military foray into Somalia this month to battle Islamist militants was not simply a response to a wave of recent kidnappings, as previously claimed, but was actually planned far in advance, part of a covert strategy to penetrate Somalia and keep the violence in one of Africa’s most anarchic countries from spilling into one of Africa’s most stable.

 

For several years, the American-backed Kenyan military has been secretly arming and training clan-based militias inside Somalia to safeguard Kenya’s borders and economic interests, especially a huge port to be built just 60 miles south of Somalia.

 

But now many diplomats, analysts and Kenyans fear that the country, by essentially invading southern Somalia, has bitten off far more than it can chew, opening itself up to terrorist reprisals and impeding the stressed relief efforts to save hundreds of thousands of starving Somalis.

 

Somalia has been a thorn in Kenya’s side ever since Kenya became independent in 1963. Somalia has become synonymous with famine, war and anarchy, while Kenya has become one of America’s closest African allies, a bastion of stability and a favorite of tourists worldwide.

 

http://www.nytimes.com/2011/10/27/world/africa/kenya-planned-somalia-incursion-far-in-advance.html?_r=1&pagewanted=1&ref=world

[Che -Guevara]

Somalia: Clarification Statement

 

First of all, we need to underline the following:

 

Kenya and Somalia have a long history of friendship and cooperation, and that continues today.

Kenya has long been an active supporter of peace and stability in Somalia.

The Transitional Federal Charter that created the TFG was agreed to in Kenya, and Kenya has long been a leading advocate of having the international community assist in the stabilization and rebuilding of our country.

 

Secondly, we thank Kenyan government for its working together with Somali transitional federal government to stabilize Somalia and for training good number of Somali soldiers as well as hosting huge number of Somali refugees.

 

In fact, the people of Somalia as well as many of friends in the region including Uganda, Burundi, Kenya, Ethiopia, etc. have suffered at the hands of Al-Shabaab from their violence. We all share the need to defeat and destroy Al-Shabaab. No one wants to see demise of Al-Shabaab more than the people of Somalia.

We also share the attitude that Al-Shabaab constitutes a common enemy to both countries and in this regard, the sovereignty and the Territorial integrity of both Somalia and Kenya should be respected.

Therefore, to evolve a common security strategy, we agreed with our brothers Kenyan government on the following:

 

Cooperation in undertaking coordinated security and military operations spearheaded by TFG soldiers trained by Kenyan government.

Cooperation and collaboration in sharing and exchange of information that is relevant to the fight against cross border crimes and operations.

 

Somali Prime Minister is assigned to this issue and he is going to appoint a joint security committee led by the prime minister himself that will work with their Kenyan counterparts.

 

We also need to clarify that as part of NSSP endorsed by the stakeholders the TFG will do the following:

 

Liberating the whole country from the tyranny of al-Shabaab with the help of AMISOM, IGAD and friendly countries.

Stabilizing all areas freed from Al-Shabaab.

Establishing – in accordance with the Transitional Federal charter – local administrations in the liberated areas to avoid a vacuum.

 

We call on the international community to redouble its efforts to help those most in need once these territories are freed from the tyranny of al Shabaab.

 

Once again we welcome the support of the International Community in defeating Al-Shabaab and wish to emphasize the need to do this while respecting the sovereignty and territorial integrity of Somalia.

 

END

 

Source: TFG

[GoldCoast]

Che -Guevara;754313 wrote:

Johnny...The TFG has been in existence in 2004 and in that long period has not managed to establish itself even with the help of foriegn forces including AMISOM. Theoretically, AMISOM's mandate is to help Somalia till such time that Somalia Government has the capacity to render its services and obligations towards its citizens without any hindrance. Even if I was to agree with you on AMISOM mandate, the question is has AMISOM's presence helped the Somalia in building capacity in terms of national security and to lesser extent social services? In the larger context, does the presence of the international community including our neighbors helped the TFG in meeting its obligations.

 

What Somalia needs is not government in name or government whose existence is determined by the President, Prime-Minister and the Speaker and the presence of foriegn forces. What Somalia and Somalis need are institutions that deliver services,exert control, and protect the country's sovereignty. The international community and AMISOM have not helped Somalia or TFG in building capacity to the point that AMISOM becomes irrelevant.

 

Take for example Somalia's security apparatus, Xiin posted an article about Pland's security services being send to Uganda for training. This is to enhance Pland's and by extension Somalia's ability to provide security for its people. Now if there was genuine effort to help Somalis in building institutional capacity, why would thousands of Somali recruits be send to foriegn lands? Couldn't they be trained in Somalia at fraction of the cost? Couldn't the rest of the money be used to equip them and pay their salaries. Does it make sense that hundreds of millions are spent on AMISOM while the Somali troops could barely feed themselves and resort to selling their weapons to the very people that they are suppose to be fighting?

 

The scheme of sending thousands of Somali recruits to Uganda, Ethiopia, Kenya and Jabouti is clear example, this is mashruuc for other stakeholders. None of this is being done to enable the TFG to achieve dominance or prove itself to be real government. The presence does not help the TFG. Resources that would have gone to the TFG are diverted to AMISOM and the TFG with its weak leaders and divisions is not in position to object to any decision made by third parties.

 

If the idea is to defeat AS, in my estimation, this could only be done through two ways, one is to have capable and unified Somali force that could stand up to it. This of course requires political will and willingness to compromise and win over other Somali stakeholders including the Ethiopian backed Ahlu Sunnah, Pland and even the secessionist. I see no Somali leaders that is both willing and able to unite different factions for common cause. The other option and more realistic one is to coopt all or elements of AS into the TFG. The success in Xamar and mishandling of the famine have created splits in AS and some could have been persuaded to abandon the cause. The invasion and I hope you would stop calling it incursion gave new lease of life for AS. It is counterproductive and couldn't come at worst time for TFG and our people as we are suffering severe famine and TFG was beginning to look abit competent.

 

This invasion undermines the TFG and exposes lack of political will.

 

Abtagiis...You talk about Somalis as if you are removed from them. They are just like you who made chooses to deliberately support a group at the expense of our national interest. Admittedly, this includes me as well.

 

Brilliant analysis. Looking forward to hearing the responses to this post

[Abtigiis]

Che, I didn't exclude myself from the Somalis. The traits I heaped on them are on my shoulders too.

 

Also, you haven't yet shed light on any practical ways of solving the Somali problem. Moral appeals and laments cannot be dished out as actionable policy recommendations. And nationalistic calls made without any appreciation of the current patriotic paralysis and death of somali national consciousness, while effective in titilating the uninitiated and the youth, cannot bear results.

 

Look Xinn's mischief in semantis. Amisom is deployment, Kenya is invasion. Amisom is mandate, kenya is only a paper to work collectively with Somalia in fighting terror. You can see hairs split, split, spllit until the microscope couldn't see any more.

[Che -Guevara]

Abtagiis.....Nothing short of true reconcialation will cure our ills and to achieve that, I sincerely beleive we need accountability. It's matter who of should Somali leaders be accountable to and who our collective actions be accountable to?

 

If Azania project, who should Ghandi be accountable to?

[Abtigiis]

Gandhi should be accountable to the TFG, it is a workable framework, minus the Sharifs and the motion-happy MPs. I am afraid there are no better short-cuts. Men like the PM must be empowered and should feign acceptance of UN and Mahiga's domination for a while and gradually come out of the disgraceful shell later. For that to happen, Alshabab must become history.

[Che -Guevara]

It's very fair to say the TFG including all MPs are not accountable to the Somali people. Ghandi being accountable to the TFG hence makes no difference, Men that represent us must answer to someone, either to truly independent Somali Government or to the tol in which the tol has decide if their interests lie in united stable Somalia.

[sharma-arke451]

xiinfaniin;754189 wrote:

^^

:D

 

Great post. But it confuses the issues as Johnny B called it out. AMISOM is a security arrangement that reflects the lack of genuine Somali institutions. It did not invade Somalia. It came through UN sanctioned mandate, narrow mandate at that. It is an issue nevertheless that needs to be addressed. And I am sure once Somali capacity is improved through whatever means, AMISOM will not be a difficult issue to solve. But equating AMISOM to the full Kenyan invasion is simply ignoring the facts.

What a double standard.

Foreign invasion has no classes and category. Amisom, ethiopia and kenya, all take the same ruling. naar meel qaboow malahan.

 

And by the way, even the maamul goboledyada dhisan, especially, pland iyo sland, dee foreign invasion kama marno.

[Abtigiis]

sharma-arke451;754380 wrote:

What a double standard.

Foreign invasion has no classes and category. Amisom, ethiopia and kenya, all take the same ruling. naar meel qaboow malahan.

 

And by the way, even the maamul goboledyada dhisan, especially, pland iyo sland, dee foreign invasion kama marno.

Aah! you are a blessed brother. May you directly drink sizzling danbar from udder of Gobbad. Son of the soil, tell them, taunt them. You have a powerful weapon with you, you have the sword called truth.

[Carafaat]

sharma-arke451;754380 wrote:

What a double standard.

Foreign invasion has no classes and category. Amisom, ethiopia and kenya, all take the same ruling. naar meel qaboow malahan.

And by the way, even the maamul goboledyada dhisan, especially, pland iyo sland, dee foreign invasion kama marno.

 

Explain?

[N.O.R.F]

Repeating Somalia needs to sort out its problems internally after 20 years of chaos is ignoring the facts on the ground. For Somalia to be stable, for the process of rebuilding institutions to come to some fruition, the government needs to rid the country of AS. AS have flatly refused to take part in any negotiations. The TFG was winning the war. Now they have Kenya coming north.

 

Nationalist feelings are running high I understand but I don't think wishing for a miracle to happen (re Somalia's political make up) is the way to go.