More than meets the eye with the Kenyan Invasion

[Che -Guevara]

loool@Mintid....I think the realization that our problems need a common and unified solution and that we face common threat despite our political difference is good start. Soon, necessity will dedicate that Somalis work together.

[Mintid Farayar]

Che -Guevara;754315 wrote:

loool@Mintid....I think the realization that our problems need a common and unified solution and that we face common threat despite our political difference is good start. Soon, necessity will dedicate that Somalis work together.

Look at Che attempting to pull a Xiin! - Claiming a moral victory when there's none to be had. We are all Somalis, just like the Arabs are all Arabs. We can help each other, we just don't have to inhabit the same political structure, know what I mean?!?

 

I still stand where I've always stood on that subject. But there's still hope on your end - since I see you've climbed down from your Al Shabaab supporting days. Welcome to reality on that score. Eventually, you'll learn that the achievement of 'my goals' is no threat to you but rather a strong arm to lean on in a tumultuous neighborhood.

 

Anyway, shame on you, for making me digress from the point of this thread....

[Che -Guevara]

looool...it only took a minute to go back to your old self.

[Mintid Farayar]

So Che,

 

Update me since it's been a while for me. From reading your postings in the last few days, am I right to assume that you've stopped supporting the savage Al Shabaab?

 

Secondly, from following Somali politics all these years, don't you know there's been only one politically constant position/entity since the fall of Siyad Barre? And you expect me to change on that score? That political stance is not a shifting tactic like elsewhere among our brethren - it's the 'only constant'!

 

And you know it...

[Che -Guevara]

Nothing remains constant and change is inevitable whether one accepts it or not and so far nothing in Somalia including your enclave have bore a fruit in the larger geopolitical context.

 

As for AS, they have failed in that they have not learned from others before them and didn't put any effort in creating any institutions that would satisfy the hunger for peace and good governance in Somalia but in regards to current situation with Kenya, as in the case of Ethiopian invasion, I will take AS over any foriegn invaders in any given day.

[Mintid Farayar]

Thank you for a straight answer. I disagree with you on your Al Shabaab stance and suspect you wouldn't be so quick to choose Al Shabaab over the Kenyans if you experienced even 2 days of living underneath Al Shabaab rule. Heck, the point is already proven by the thousands of Somalis voting with their feet everyday crossing the border. But we will leave that discussion for another day...

 

 

As for the Kenyans, I deeply believe the kidnappings were the needed pretense for this invasion. The moving of the Kenyan Army Command Center from Nairobi to Garissa in November 2010 combined with the Wikileaks cables drove this point home. Now mind you, the Army Command Center was based in Nairobi since Kenyan Independence.

 

The real determinant of how things will go down in the next few days will be the looming clash in Afmadow. The Kenyans started with 2 battalions with a combined manpower of 1600. Within days, they've increased it to 4000 men, along with the assisting Somali militias. Afmadow is where we will see whether Al Shabaab will fight or melt into the savanna to conduct guerrilla warfare. If the Kenyans take Afmadow(only 90km/50mi northwest of Kismayo), it will be an easier sprint to Kismayo to cut off the power/financial source. If the Kenyans get bogged down in Afmadow, they will then need to rethink their gamble. In addition the Kenyans are moving up a second force up the coast from the South(currently in the town of Oddo) towards Kismayo, attempting a double pincer movement. Military analysts say Kenyan forces certainly have the capability to continue conducting operations, but the number of Kenyan forces currently deployed is insufficient to completely eradicate al Shabaab or even to secure the areas the Kenyans have seized thus far.

 

We shall see how this develops. But it's all part of a wider struggle much bigger than Somalis or Kenyans...

[sharma-arke451]

Somalia;754108 wrote:

You are the most confused, disorganized and undisciplined clan apart from SSC.

unfortunately, this is the view of every other clan.

You think they are down, they too think you are down.

Thoughts empire

[xiinfaniin]

Mintid Farayar;754334 wrote:

 

 

As for the Kenyans, I deeply believe the kidnappings were the needed pretense for this invasion. The moving of the Kenyan Army Command Center from Nairobi to Garissa in November 2010 combined with the Wikileaks cables drove this point home. Now mind you, the Army Command Center was based in Nairobi since Kenyan Independence.

 

The real determinant of how things will go down in the next few days will be the looming clash in Afmadow. The Kenyans started with 2 battalions with a combined manpower of 1600. Within days, they've increased it to 4000 men, along with the assisting Somali militias. Afmadow is where we will see whether Al Shabaab will fight or melt into the savanna to conduct guerrilla warfare. If the Kenyans take Afmadow(only 90km/50mi northwest of Kismayo), it will be an easier sprint to Kismayo to cut off the power/financial source. If the Kenyans get bogged down in Afmadow, they will then need to rethink their gamble. In addition the Kenyans are moving up a second force up the coast from the South(currently in the town of Oddo) towards Kismayo, attempting a double pincer movement. Military analysts say Kenyan forces certainly have the capability to continue conducting operations, but the number of Kenyan forces currently deployed is insufficient to completely eradicate al Shabaab or even to secure the areas the Kenyans have seized thus far.

 

We shall see how this develops. But it's all part of a wider struggle much bigger than Somalis or Kenyans...

Opposing Kenyan invasion need not result in doubting Kenya's military capability as a well oiled conventional army to outrun Alshabaab resistance. I do not expect bloody battles on the muddy fields in Jubba jungles. It will not be Hannibal vs Roman army.

 

That is to say, Kenya will most likely win the battle for Kismayo if it proceeds with the invasion. It will however lose the war. And that will be so for two primary reasons. 1) The nature of Alshabaab resistance and tactics that will inevitably be employed by Alshabaab will ultimately frustrate Kenyan efforts. For Alshabaab this region is their last stance. And because of the terrain and shifting clan loyalties, I see no anomaly to compensate that assumption. 2) The political front will prove Kenya's effort fruitless for Kismayo is one of the city's in Somalia that most in need of a holistic approach. And Kenya persistently pushed a peculiar notion of forming of a forced state with no consultation with local stakeholders and outside of TFG framework.

 

Reading from reactions to the expressed opposition of Kenyan invasion on this forum, proponents of Kenyan invasion are fundamentally misreading opposition factors/reasons. Contrary to the prevailing conventional wisdom, the region is question is not necessarily a D region (O, H and MR being the main players). There are legitimate stakeholders outside of D groupings from clan standpoint whose role will be effectively denied if Kenyan way is to be had. It is in this spirit that Sharif (I am speculating here) is voicing opposition, on top of the apparent subversion of TFG framework. Combine both those factors, and you get the perfect recipe for Alshabaab resistance, effectively countering Kenyan invasion and subsequent political entity which is assumed to ultimately be formed.

 

Also Kenyan invasion as orchestrated now clearly suggests the notion of containing Somali conflict remains the prevailing approach for the relevant stakeholders. And that itself creates a sense of frustration with the madness of the powers that be with regards to the question of Somalia, which makes Alshabaab NOT the biggest factor of Somalia's instability. With kenya army going deep in Jubba valley the world is clearly being disruptive to the UN road map, which Mahiga has been advertising to the Somalia diaspora.