Chasing Kelligii Muslim Militia Takes Precedence Over Millions of Starving Somalis

[Baashi]

A Case of Mixed Priorities -- Chasing around ragtag Kelligii Muslims militia takes precedence over millions of starving Somalis

By Inna Kaadi Najaasle

Belo Sheeg Dispatches

 

Badhaadhe, Jubadda Hoose - The reported border-crossing by Kenyan military units to the famine-stricken Qoqani district in Somalia would undoubtedly exacerbate an already critical humanitarian situation. Aid groups estimated that about four million Somalis in roughly eight districts in the south Somalia are in danger of starvation. The area is suffering a deadly combination of crop failure, prolonged draught, high food prices, diseases, never-ending bitter internecine clan feuds and chronic insecurity.

 

What this Kenyan preemptive strike -- African style -- targeting ground zero of most severe humanitarian emergency center in the world will accomplish is doubling down that deadly cocktail and reigniting the armed conflict in the area. All of this in the height of the famine that so far claimed lives of thousands of nomads and farmers.

 

It should be noted most of the refugees inside Somali-inhabited Kenya reached there through Afmadow-Qoqani-Xagar corridor -- exactly where Kenyan military units has set up command and control center.

 

Come rainy season, much of lower juba valley will be mired in tribal conflict (vying for control of the port city) -- a conflict which will make impossible for farmers and cow herders of the area to get back to the farm and plant their crops or move around in search of grazing land for their livestock.

 

Following the worst draught in decades, the area is bracing a record flooding (mighty Ganane zig zags that area) that will compound an already fragile situation. Kenyan military units, its western supporters, and Somali militia under its thumbs are not expected to provide relief to the millions in need of (and will need of ) help. Its narrow interest is to create a buffer zone for Kenya and install a friendly regime that’s in control of the strategic port city of Kismayo

 

This move may make sense to the regional powers from strategic point of view as stabilizing Kismayo (if the effort succeeds) will, in turn, stabilize much of southern Somalia. The rationale -- apart of assuring tourists that Kenyan army have created a buffer zone for their safety and economic wellbeing of Kenyan nation -- is that by uprooting Kelligii Muslims, the TFG will be in a better position to consolidate security gains and form a defendable government.

 

But at what cost? Aid groups estimated 750 thousand Somalis, mostly women and children, are in danger of starvation. The estimate did not factor in the latest Kenyan intervention and all the complications that accompany with picking winners in clan feuds.

 

Not to mention Kelligii Muslims militia in the area will now have a reason to heed the call to fight on and defeat foreign troops -- infidels -- in Somali soil. The cursed port city of Kismayo will now host a gamut of competing interests. Once proud home of Somali navy fleet will have to accommodate Kenyan navy (if the press reports of going all the way to port city is true) which will be utilized to assist Kenyan friends.

 

There were three navy ships and two destroyers docked at Kismayo in 1990 when the civil war broke out. The wreck of Russian supplied Somali navy fleet (much of it looted and sold as metal scrap) is a fitting reminder of how complete the disintegration of this poor failed state is.

 

Ninka dhababaceeyee, dheydiisa daadshaa,

Waa dhabana heysiyo, dhaxalkiisu hibashee,

Kolka uu dhameeyuu, dhukusaa hadhawtee!

.

Inta aan is dhaawacay, waanigan dhutinayee

 

When goings get tough aimless Kelligii Muslim squad will disappear (dhukusid) and resort to their signature Muslim-on-Muslim blood path. Kenya will arm its friend to the teeth and let them fend off for themselves -- leaving the carnage behind. In desperation Kelligii Muslims might resort to suicidal tactics and put East Leigh in the smelter and deny the emerging Somali middle class there a chance to consolidate the business gains they made last two decades.

 

All in all, bad idea. Join me and curse the amateur Kelligii Muslims, clueless afar-jeeble, regional powers using Somalia as a playground to milk western money, and negative tribalists in unison.

 

Inna-Kaadi Najaasle oo loo warramay by Belo-Sheeg Dispatcher

 

**Phase I of Kampala Accord succeeds -- implement actions deemed necessary by IGAD (in the name of regional stability and shoring up the fledgling TFG) and inform Mogadishu after the fact.**

[GoldCoast]

An eloquent recap of what I've stated in numerous threads. Like I've said, saying you support this escalation out of "humanitarian" pretences is probably the weakest justification possible. Continously repeating that AS has blocked aid doesn't change the fact that this conflict will not only block aid and medical supplies, it will also block the only way out for thousands still stuck in a terrible famine. Not to mention when the conflict intensifies I assure you all the NGO's and doctors will pull out.

 

As for the very likely conclusion of this hapless affair, I think you're on the money again here too.

[xiinfaniin]

Couldn't agree more with Baashe. Spot on analysis of the situation.

 

Thankful, this thread is calling you awoowe

[Baashi]

Awoowe it’s really sad, really sad situation all around. One has to hope that when all is said and done, the casualties -- collateral or drought/disease related -- are bare minimum. Because this tragedy ahd been in play for so long most of the folks on this board are numb and can brush aside events with such gravity with ease. Same here and I'm not blaming anyone as this is human nature through and through.

 

That said, Somaliaonline forum is full of noise that can sometimes drown out the substance of the issues under discussion. For that reason Inna Kaadi Najaasle feels obligated to camp at Badhaadhe and relay events from that angle.

 

One thing is for sure if one has to put this event under the microscope one will also realize that the Kenyan move is counting on certain clans who populate both sides of the border -- clans who have the potential to deliver Kenya’s strategic calculation.

 

I’m not well informed and I am going out on limb by claiming that AS are extremely weak in every sense of the world as the masses have seen what they are made of. Militarily they are in their last throes. Why would Kenya throw a life line to AS now when inaction and leaving to their own devises seems to be the best option?

[Thankful]

Look, this article is an opinion piece that is giving the authors 'prognosis'. I understand what he is saying and my opinion differs.

 

I believe that we can use tangible evidence here. Let's look at Mogadishu who is a prime example of what the TFG - aided by the AU - can accomplish. We have seen Turkish humanitarian center's opinion and students being flown out for the chance of more education, as well teh city is slowly being rebuilt. The key here is that we are being reconnected with the international community. The only real obstacle is Al Shabaab!

 

I do not believe this operation to push Al Shabaab out of thes areas will block aid from coming to these places and in fact - just like Mogadishu - humanitarian facilities will start opening up and foreign aid workers will be allowed to return. Al Shabaab regions are some of the most fertile lands in Somalia, they were the agricultural heart of the nation. Yet once Al Shabaab took over, we have seen that these are the only places that the effects of the drought are strongest.

 

As we remember Al Shabaab kicked out aide agencies and accused them of being spies, which caused the death toll to rise enormously.

[Baashi]

Finishing off AS -- aimless Kelligii Muslims -- is sensible thing to do. How you go about in accomplishing that task is a different ball game. Awoowe escalating dormant conflict in area that is suffering the most severe humanitarian crisis in decades and now bracing record flooding after prolonged draught is not only dangerous but it is also heartless and cruel. It will only compound the situation farther. Nothing good will come out of this.

 

Do you really understand the mechanics of aid giving? With all their short comings AS allowed exodus to take place from Bakool, Gedo, and all of Juba. Aid groups can set up shop and go places when one group is in control. You do what they tell you to do as long as they allow you to deliver critical services to the needy. And they did and now on the ground in many districts. Likewise, starving families can move -- with difficulty for sure -- to wherever they can find relief.

 

Attack and drive them out when famine situation subsides and normalcy returns. Awoowe hold your horse. Now is not the time and south Somalia is not the place to do an operation of this scale.

 

It pains me greatly when the primary driver of all of this commotion is to save Kenyan tourism industry. There are other plans that have been in the works for sometimes and there was consensus to wait the famine phase to pass. Because of daring kidnappings and media attention these actions got, Kenyan security interests trumped all humanitarian considerations.

 

The sad thing is you cheer for this sinister action.

[ElPunto]

^

 

1- I don't understand this argument about an increased humanitarian crisis due to the Kenyan invasion. The most desparate and destitute people have already fled - and they've mostly fled hundreds of kilometers to Dadaab precisely because Al-Shabaab wouldn't allow in sufficient humanitarian access. Whatever minor aid groups exist in the Al-Shabaab areas will remain and provide services if the situation continues as - ie Shabaab simply melting away. A humanitarian crisis may ensue if Kenyan forces invade Kismayo and Shabaab start the kind of hit and run attacks and suicide bombings they've been doing in Mogadishu. Barring that there simply is no evidence currently of civilians fleeing en masse in the wake of this Kenyan invasion.

 

2- This invasion will not work if as is likely Kenyan forces simply want to make a show of force and are not ready to really crush Shabaab. That is why I don't support this - simply because I don't think it will be effective. However, one never knows what the plans for Somalia by foreign powers may be. If the Kenyans do get to Kismayo and Amisom and TFG forces are ferried in by ship to establish a base in Kismayo and hold it and begin an extermination campaign on Al-Shabaab I would be supportive. If there is a real pospect of a sustained effort at eradicating Shabaab any sane Somali should be supportive. At this point though the situation is unclear.

[Qandalawi]

Excellent article. Kenya will exacerbate the situation and will not make any impact on AS strength/weakness.

 

It's all about politics and resources, they are coming to claim their share and further enforce the grip influence they have on Somalia.

[GoldCoast]

ElPunto;752836 wrote:

^

 

1- I don't understand this argument about an increased humanitarian crisis due to the Kenyan invasion. The most desparate and destitute people have already fled - and they've mostly fled hundreds of kilometers to Dadaab precisely because Al-Shabaab wouldn't allow in sufficient humanitarian access. Whatever minor aid groups exist in the Al-Shabaab areas will remain and provide services if the situation continues as - ie Shabaab simply melting away. A humanitarian crisis may ensue if Kenyan forces invade Kismayo and Shabaab start the kind of hit and run attacks and suicide bombings they've been doing in Mogadishu. Barring that there simply is no evidence currently of civilians fleeing en masse in the wake of this Kenyan invasion.

 

2- This invasion will not work if as is likely Kenyan forces simply want to make a show of force and are not ready to really crush Shabaab. That is why I don't support this - simply because I don't think it will be effective. However, one never knows what the plans for Somalia by foreign powers may be. If the Kenyans do get to Kismayo and Amisom and TFG forces are ferried in by ship to establish a base in Kismayo and hold it and begin an extermination campaign on Al-Shabaab I would be supportive. If there is a real pospect of a sustained effort at eradicating Shabaab any sane Somali should be supportive. At this point though the situation is unclear.

On your first point, while it is true that there has been a mass exodus, it is not true that huge numbers of people do not remain at risk. You just have to google the latest reports on the crisis to know tens of thousands remain in those regions and are the most desperate risk, even worse than those who have fleed.

 

If you don't take Baashi's word for it then here is Oxfam repeating the same points for you.

 

New Somalia fighting risks increasing famine suffering

October 20th, 2011 at 10.58 am.

The new escalation in fighting and insecurity along the Kenya-Somalia border risks increasing the suffering for civilians already devastated by drought and conflict, international agency Oxfam said today, three months since famine was announced in Somalia.

Oxfam said that any increase in fighting is likely to cause further displacement and restrict the aid effort at a time when 750,000 Somalis are at risk of death due to deteriorating conditions. The agency urged all parties to the conflict to respect international humanitarian law and make all efforts to minimise civilian casualties, while ensuring that the flow of aid to famine zones is not affected.

Oxfam said the fighting, and the tightening of security along the border, could also make it much more difficult for refugees to leave Somalia for Dadaab camp, and that their right to seek refuge in Kenya must be upheld. Several hundred refugees have been crossing the border every day in search of aid and safety.

 

“We are extremely concerned that the current fighting is likely to have a serious impact on communities left struggling to survive by the famine. The top priority at the moment must be making sure that people get aid quickly. But increased conflict will make it even more difficult to provide them with food, water and other life-saving assistance,” said Fran Equiza, Oxfam’s Regional Director.

Oxfam also condemned recent insecurity in Kenya, which has hampered the aid effort there and has forced Oxfam to reduce some of its work. Kenyans need security and protection, but Oxfam said the best way to achieve a secure region is through a peaceful and lasting solution in Somalia.

 

The situation in Somalia is increasingly alarming. The famine is expected to spread over the next month, including to some of the regions that are now facing further conflict. More than 1.5 million Somalis - one in six of the population - have been forced from their homes due to conflict and drought, and more could now be made homeless.

“People are fleeing the most unimaginable suffering and arrive at camps desperate for food, water and shelter. Kenya has legitimate security concerns, and has already welcomed a huge number of refugees, but it must continue to ensure that people can seek safety and shelter.” said Equiza.

 

Malnutrition rates among children in Somalia are the worst in the world, and the upcoming rainy season brings the threat of outbreaks of disease among communities weakened by malnutrition.

 

A surge in the humanitarian response over the past three months has helped bring aid to many parts of Somalia. Oxfam partners are currently assisting more than 700,000 people in the country with clean water and sanitation services. However, insecurity and other restrictions mean that many people are still not getting the help they need.Oxfam said that in the past military action in Somalia has had a negative impact on civilians and further reduced access for aid agencies. It called for a new approach in dealing with the Somalia crisis, through sustained diplomatic engagement involving all the different parties.

 

http://www.oxfam.org.uk/applications/blogs/pressoffice/2011/10/20/new-somalia-fighting-risks-increasing-famine-suffering/?v=media

 

They provide credence to every point Baashi has made. Fighting and tightening security of the border will definitely negatively effect civilians. In fact this shows many do not have a grasp on why a famine has occurred in the first place. Its not simply a matter of a) AS blocking certain aid groups and b) drought but what has been repeated endlessly is that consistent fighting and insecurity in those regions has greatly contributed to the number of people at risk. This action only plays to the very same factors that have created a massive loss of life in the first place.

[ElPunto]

^This is mostly a pro forma statement. It doesn't tell us anything new. That there is a risk of conflict and that the conflict could have negative humanitarian consequences is readily conceded. What is the reality on the ground thus far? Are the Kenyans actually fighting? Has the Shabaab ceased to melt away and are they making a stand? Is the farmer or pastoralist in Afmadow(now in Kenyan hands according to reports) going to flee - why? - since some livelihood kept him there in the first place and that isn't threatened by the Kenyans. The reality is people in the south have seen a lot of conflict - they don't flee easily en masse which would cause a humanitarian catastrophe. The only things that have led to that in the recent past is the shelling/massacres in Mogadishu and the unprecedented drought of the last year.

 

BTW - according to their website Oxfam has no operations in southern Somalia apart from Afgoye and Mogadishu.

 

http://www.oxfam.org.uk/resources/countries/somalia.html

[GoldCoast]

ElPunto;752897 wrote:

^This is mostly a pro forma statement. It doesn't tell us anything new. That there is a risk of conflict and that the conflict could have negative humanitarian consequences is readily conceded. What is the reality on the ground thus far? Are the Kenyans actually fighting? Has the Shabaab ceased to melt away and are they making a stand? Is the farmer or pastoralist in Afmadow(now in Kenyan hands according to reports) going to flee - why? - since some livelihood kept him there in the first place and that isn't threatened by the Kenyans. The reality is people in the south have seen a lot of conflict - they don't flee easily en masse which would cause a humanitarian catastrophe. The only things that have led to that in the recent past is the shelling/massacres in Mogadishu and the unprecedented drought of the last year.

 

BTW - according to their website Oxfam has no operations in southern Somalia apart from Afgoye and Mogadishu.

 

http://www.oxfam.org.uk/resources/countries/somalia.html

^ MSF has also raised similar concerns and has operations throughout Lower Jubba and close to the border regions.

 

We definitely don't know the reality on the ground yet, this is still very early in the game. But the potential for negative effects certainly exceed the potential for positive IMO. Considering this, I cannot support it. I also don't think its much of a stretch to presume this conflict will play very similarly to interventions in the past. For any gains in the region to be established Kenya will have to occupy. They don't seem interested in doing so. Can the TFG allied militias hold on to the towns once they leave? AlShabaab certainly won't be afraid to confront them, their firepower is nothing like AMISOM's. This is without considering the very real possibility these militias(ASWJ and Ras Kamboni facitons) will turn on each other, especially in Kismayo. All in all intensified conflict seems certain and that is not good for civilians in the region at all.

[Mayaani]

Good point Baashi, Lost priorities that sums up.

[ElPunto]

Close to one month later and the whole thing is still stuck in the mud spinning its wheels. The Kenyans should go home - they haven't got the intelligence or cojones to fight al-Shabab. Better to declare victory and go home before more bombs explode in Nairobi.

[burahadeer]

thou I support kenyans it's no win situation nonetheless.Will be much more difficult for somalis inside kenya proper as it drags on,the sooner they leave better for all.