Siilaanyo Visits SSC Provincial Capital, Faroole Counters With a Press Statement

[xiinfaniin]

The leader of Somalia’s northern region, Somaliland, made a historic visit to the disputed city of Laascaanood. Although his visit was very brief, lasting only hours, the significance of its political symbolism will linger in the months to come. Surely, Siilanyo’s visit will not change the political and security dynamics of the region. It will have however a powerful propaganda to boost the morale of the separatist movement. If you are in doubt, ponder on this: in contrast to Siilaanyo’s triumphant pictures, and exultant soldiers in the frontline trenches, Puntland leader was nowhere to be seen. The situation forced him to issue what amounted to a protest press statement. For the avid followers of the politics of the region, it was very telling that the strongest condemnation of Siilaanyo’s visit came not from the Puntland’s Security Minister, but from a traditional leader, the elder of Sanaag region. And this is the effect of Siilaanyo’s visit; the propaganda produce however fleeting does indeed a masterstroke.

 

Aside from Siilaanyo’s propaganda upshot (which my little write up here is indisputably contributing), there is a reason, however, for Faroole to feel good about the current political setup in the region, and in the big scheme of things. Let me explain.

 

First off, unlike Puntland, Somaliland has reached sort of a political sealing. The case it built in the last twenty years to win its independence is currently stalemated. The political confidence of the elites to get recognition is beginning to wane. Elections were held. Power was transferred peacefully and successfully. But neither convinced the world that such democratic gymnastics are enough to inaugurate a new state in a turbulent region. So the secessionist region is today at a political and economic crossroads. If the commotion that surrounded the Turkish scholarship is any measure, the mismatch between reality on the ground and average expectation of Somaliland man and woman poses a serious internal, political implosion. On the other hand, Puntland has just begun to make the transition from a political arrangement predicated on security and defense posture to a national leader and player. Puntland’s sealing, politically, is that of Somalia. Faroole’s priorities attest to that.

 

Puntland leadership is busy in shaping the national affairs of Somalia. SSC, however important and central to Puntland’s political soul, pales in comparison to the national consideration. If UN announcements are considered, Puntland is playing a lead role in holding the next Somali conference. A conference (mind you) that could advance the effort to resolve the larger Somali conflict, including the SSC disputes. Hence Puntland’s current priorities are starkly different than that of the separatist region. And that explains why Puntland’s response was weak and muted. That is why Somaliland was so bold and politically brash to have Siilaanyo visit Laascaanood. If you understand how the current national efforts to include Faroole, is good for him, giving him a bigger fish to fry than provoke a border conflict with Somaliland, then one can easily deduce that the outcome of that conference will also give him an advantage politically. And there are two possible outcomes concerning the SSC region. Either the national Somali conference will result in a cohesive national entity that encompasses and absorbs all the political entities in Somalia inclusive SSC, which then resolves that issue once and for all. That will be good for Somalia, for Puntland. Or the conference fails to resolve the issue, which gives Puntland the political and security rationale to win the region whatever it takes, in essence giving the Puntland leadership all the reasons to mobilize all the resources without national consideration. Such efforts will not be different in spirit than the 1991s effort to confront USC ambitions toward Galkacyo.

 

Lets hope it does not come to that, and some sort of larger, national arrangement is found and applied to Somalia to achieve a permanent peace and security for all.

[Baashi]

Silaanyo on a scapegoat mission

Fresh from the Press

By Qurbo-Joog

Cimi-Dhegood Unplugged Gazzete

 

Silaanyo is in Las Cano! So I heard. Why now? And what is the end game for the visit. I don’t know, however, if I were to take a guess and put my talking head and pundit hat on I would say that Silaanyo’s move is a day late and dollar short.

 

First a lil background to set the stage; there is a debate within SSC that pivots the interest of SSC clans. Some influential folks from that community are in the view that before the proposed transition to post-conflict era commences, they need to claim their seat at the table not as a junior partner with Hargeisa admin or Garowe admin but as a building block and recovery area on their own in par with other clans of their size.

 

Sub clans that are aligned with the two admins in the area argue that the time is short, the gap between SSC politicians are sizable and hence its in the interest of the SSC community to throw their lot to one of the admins (majority as well as the SSC rank and file are leaned toward PL for purely clannish reasons).

 

Secondly, Garowe is ahead of the curve, sort to speak, when it comes to clan machinations and political calculations. Farole admin figured that if transition to post conflict Somalia were to proceed, it must be based on building blocks concept which originally underpinned reconciliation roadmap. With informed PM in place and PL in advantageous position of being called established recovery zone and autonomous region of Somalia, he wields a big stick. Farole task was to make sure the venue of the grand bargain Somalis is expected to have is in his backyard. He gets to play the host with all its perks.

 

With this backdrop, Silaanyo presiding over population with high expectation of getting recognized solely because of the relative calm in their zone and historical anomaly of being colonized by different European power coupled with internal opposition colored by clannish motivation, sees the hurricane cat 5 heading to his way.

 

So he heads to the center of gravity: Las Cano, Sool. The conventional wisdom has it that if he shows he can go there and sip tea with the local folks his presence there has the potential of putting all these rumors of defection and reconsideration of alliance with Hargeisa admin to bed. He’s not coming with empty handed either. It is said that SSC areas that fall in Hargeisa sphere of influence will receive 5% of the SL budget (through clans aligned with Hargeisa).

 

The Hargeisa belligerence has also the potential of provoking sub clans aligned with Garowe admin. In Silaanyo’s calculation a war is not necessarily a bad thing so long Hargeisa admin does not fire the first shot. If war were to break out in the area (very unlikely for Farole admin is too adamant not to engage in Hart-on-Hart blood letting), Garowe will be hard pressed to host a grand bargain dirrin deliberation on Somalia soil with its backyard on fire.

 

So what has Silaanyo achieved? Nothing. For sure Qurbo Joog will wear the bragging bandana on their head for few days. However, the news has no staying power if Silaanyo’s belligerence does not give way to full blown sub clan conflict within SSC. SSC is well advised not to take the bait. Hargeisa admin has no willing partner in Garowe to engage in this sort of unnecessary civil war.

 

All eyes are on Silaanyo. He is expected by vocal minority of his constituents to convince the world why Somalia that once existed should be dismembered into two on the basis of colonial precedent. The opposition will hold his feet to fire on that score. The world preoccupied by far reaching complex problems with monumental impact will keep encouraging this recovery zone to do what’s right for their folks and find ways and means to negotiate their brethren for path forward. And die hard secessionist will keep bragging about how they don’t engage in destructive civil war as the case is in some parts of Somalia.

 

Brought to you by Waxa-La-Yirri in collobaration with Cimi-Dhegood Unplugged Gazzete.

[Abtigiis]

The title should have read: Siilaanyo Visits SSC Provincial Capital, Faroole Counters With a Press Statement , Xinnfanin covers the shame of his uncle with spirited red-herring and rationalisation.

[xiinfaniin]

^^ :D

 

Prof. Abtigiis , I trust your judgment since you have been that region numerous times. What is your take on the situation. Atoor Guunyo Sagaaro analogy is a false and you know it.

[Abtigiis]

Attor guuyo sagaaro is a false analogy and I know it. I also kind of agree with your analysis above. You certainly have added some interesting dimensions to the matter at hand. However, I do concede that my Tolkay in Puntland are more urbane than my folks back in hawd. And as urbane as they are, they certainly do justice to the old urban adage of "reer-magaale gaboobay, rag haday is qabtaan, budhka soo rogan maaye, waluhuu ku raftaa". :D I like their non-stop admonistions. In terms of military power balance, I always subscribe to the 'mukulaal minankeeda joogtaa, miciyo libaax bay leedahay". No clan can defeat another clan by invading it. And the conflcit between Somaliland and Puntland, despite the names, is fundamentally about clan Vs clan.

 

Laakiin, I don't think Faroole's paper parade of might is because he is preoccupied with other pressing matters.

[xiinfaniin]

Baashi;751283 wrote:

Silaanyo on a scapegoat mission

Fresh from the Press

By Qurbo-Joog

Cimi-Dhegood

Unplugged Gazzete

....

 

Sub clans that are aligned with the two admins in the area argue that the time is short, the gap between SSC politicians are sizable and hence its in the interest of the SSC community to throw their lot to one of the admins (majority as well as the SSC rank and file are leaned toward PL for purely clannish reasons).

 

Secondly, Garowe is ahead of the curve, sort to speak, when it comes to clan machinations and political calculations. Farole admin figured that if transition to post conflict Somalia were to proceed, it must be based on building blocks concept which originally underpinned reconciliation roadmap. With informed PM in place and PL in advantageous position of being called established recovery zone and autonomous region of Somalia, he wields a big stick. Farole task was to make sure the venue of the grand bargain Somalis is expected to have is in his backyard. He gets to play the host with all its perks.

 

With this backdrop, Silaanyo presiding over population with high expectation of getting recognized solely because of the relative calm in their zone and historical anomaly of being colonized by different European power coupled with internal opposition colored by clannish motivation, sees the hurricane cat 5 heading to his way.

 

So he heads to the center of gravity: Las Cano, Sool. The conventional wisdom has it that if he shows he can go there and sip tea with the local folks his presence there has the potential of putting all these rumors of defection and reconsideration of alliance with Hargeisa admin to bed. He’s not coming with empty handed either. It is said that SSC areas that fall in Hargeisa sphere of influence will receive 5% of the SL budget (through clans aligned with Hargeisa).

 

... Hargeisa admin has no willing partner in Garowe to engage in this sort of unnecessary civil war.

 

.

Well said indeed. The Xaaji Xunjufs of this world will have bragging rights no doubt to say that their separatist leader has made a powerful visit at the gates of Puntland seat. But the chess board suggest a more lethal however subtle Puntland political calculation.

[Baashi]

I didn't see this post when I posted a duplicate post covering the same event. Will appreciate if moderator moves that write-up under this banner.

 

Awoowe I think the political play is within SSC. Silaanyo has the problem of having three fifths of political establishment of SCC community preparing to partake the proposed grand bargain to be held in either Garowe or Benadir. Stand-alone SSC, Garowe-allied SSC, and its equivalent of Maakhir Garowe-allied group will take part in the grand bargain (stand-alone SSC group will sit in as a non-aligned clan and Garowe aligned clans will be represented by PL umbrella).

 

That leaves secessionist-aligned SSC in the wilderness. What can Silaanyo offer to them. Bigger share of the regions pie (Berbera port revenue and donor money). Silaanyo’s calculation is to retain his political partners and plant a flagpole (have you seen Far and Away -- the movie) in order to mark the distance his admin’s influence reaches.

 

So far no bloodshed. Super. Playing politics is fine and dandy as long as there are no casualties because of it. If Farole can advice and implore his SSC partners to ignore and move forward with the planned Gol Khatumo conference, he will win this round of the game. He must not jeopardize in anyway or form the far more important watershed conference.

 

Silaanyo has a bigger domestic headache on his hands and the excursion detour he embarked on will work well for him. But only a while...

 

I am glad he is in the helms for he’s better politician than mad dog waraabe. We know where he stands on Somaliweyn issue. This man is not deaf-tone. If the grand bargain expected to be held soon bears fruits then is conceivable that the stage is set to bargain with him. In the meantime he is forgiven to hold the fort and stand toe to toe with the opposition. If that makes him a hawkish (provided it does not lead to bloodshed) for the short run so be it.

[Baashi]

Where would maqaaxi business be without waxa-la-yirri and bragging social life in Qurbo-land? huh!

[Abtigiis]

There is no bragging right. Only folks with the dwarfed IQ of the Xaji can take this non-event as an event. I don't even know why the PL guys are busy talking about this. Las Anod is under the control of the Hargeysa admin for years now. Where is the news if the head of that adminstration pays a visit to it?

 

That said, the Qurbo-joog piece is breath-takingly hilarious.

[xiinfaniin]

Allah@reer-magaale gaboobay, rag haday is qabtaan, budhka soo rogan maaye, waluhuu ku raftaa

 

Let me resort to a chess analogy. Somaliland is akin to a chess game opponent who lost the vital officers in the game but is left with considerable number of pawns. Crowding the chess board with pawns when the formidable Queen could have a field day on them is not strategic play, technically speaking. Worse yet, bringing the King from the safety of his fortified castle to the front lines is a sign of desperation, ala iskaaya sii waxaan kala helayno aan kala helnee

 

But to the uninitiated , such moves suggest a important, strategic play that will result in capturing the base of the opponent.

[Baashi]

But surely you understand the deliberations SSC clan confederacy is having and how that effects the game plan of all that involved!

[A_Khadar]

it's a crystal clear that the visit and the after threat talk from p/l is all towards to the upcoming Taleex conference in Nov... The two admins can try any possible ammunitions that are on their disposals to undermine it but at the end all these will bolster the realization and determination of ssc people.

 

What was that famous saying? “Habar baa iska howhow lehee, howsha inoo wada..”

[Alpha Blondy]

siilaanyo's visit reflects the facts on the ground.

[Abdul]

When everything is said and done,it is the ssc people who can and will decide their destiny.If in the coming conference they put their differences aside and unite,these provocations and threats against the ssc people will come to a screeching halt.

[burahadeer]

you should have your ear muffs when eva you come to far east threads.It must be soo noisy out there in Puntland.