Obama 2012

[Libaax-Sankataabte]

Updates on Obama, the GOP candidates, good news, bad news, Republican Primaries, campaign speeches ...

 

Let us take this thread all the way to election night Ilaahay hadii uu nafta inoo daayo.

[Abtigiis]

Kol hadaan ka gabyay

Go'aygiina ka qaatay

Iglan baa gubanaysa

Maxaa iiga gidiish ah?

 

Libaax, Sakiin 2012 armay more bearing inagu leedahay? Intiina meelaaha joogta mooye, i mean. :D

[Garnaqsi]

Abtigiis;744905 wrote:

Libaax,

Sakiin 2012

armay more bearing inagu leedahay? Intiina meelaaha joogta mooye, i mean.

:D

Since the US tends to fiddle with the affairs of everyone (being a superpower and all), I would say this has bearing on pretty much everyone on the planet. Besides, if some of those republican nutcases come into power, I think humans might even go extinct.

[Abtigiis]

Garnaqsi, I was pulling LST's leg. Agree the US election will have more bearing on Somalia than Somali elections, particularly if the nutcases you alluded to come to power.

[Garnaqsi]

Abtigiis;744907 wrote:

Garnaqsi, I was pulling LST's leg.

Gotcha!

[Faarax-Brawn]

Dont mess up the thread yaa jamcaaul marqaan, abti macaan, naga choochi

 

LST, Obama waa loo yaaba sanadkani, lakini,i have a feeling he will go thru inshallah...as long as the 2 front runners are the Mittman and the texan. I say this because, Rick Perry is Michelle Bachmann in a cowboy hat while Romney is a clone of his fellow massachusseterian, Kerry. We will smoke them up(pending the job market scenerio...if the jobs arent there, Obama is toast)

 

One thing he has to do tonight,is take it to the repubs and potray them as obstructionists while sounding optimistic. He needs to be the old obama and not the new weired dude. He needs to revamp his staff, something is amiss with the message & finally, he needs to have new ideas and not the old tired crap.

[Nin-Yaaban]

Obama waa beenloow. Aaway shaqooyinkii, iyo dadkii uu yiri waan caawinayaa?

[Libaax-Sankataabte]

FB, Obama waxbuu la aamusan yahay. I am still puzzled by the persona of this man. Either he knows something we don't know, or he is doomed to fail. Tonight we will see what plan he has.

 

Here is a piece from informs.org

 

"With the presidential election a year and a half away, campaigning and punditry are already intense, with many commentators noting Obama’s low approval numbers in the polls and pronouncing him highly vulnerable. The most reliable model of presidential elections, however, indicates a different answer. Based on his “13 keys” model, quantitative historian Allan Lichtman called the 2012 election for Obama nearly a year ago, with some caveats about how some keys might change. His predictions are based on 13 questions, each with a “true” or “false” answer (see box). “True” answers favor the incumbent party. If five or fewer answers are “false,” the incumbent party retains the presidency; if six or more are “false,” the challenger wins."

 

The 13 Keys to the Presidency

1.After the midterm election, the incumbent party holds more seats in the U.S. House of Representatives than it did after the preceding midterm election.

(FALSE)

 

2.The incumbent-party nominee gets at least two-thirds of the vote on the first ballot at the nominating convention.

(TRUE)

 

3.The incumbent-party candidate is the sitting president.

(TRUE)

 

4.There is no third-party or independent candidacy that wins at least five percent of the vote.

(TRUE)

 

5.The economy is not in recession during the campaign. (Probably

TRUE

)

 

6.Real (constant-dollar) per capita economic growth during the term equals or exceeds mean growth for the preceding two terms.

(FALSE)

 

7.The administration achieves a major policy change during the term, on the order of the New Deal or the first-term Reagan “revolution.”

(TRUE)

 

8.There has been no major social unrest during the term, sufficient to cause deep concerns about the unraveling of society.

(TRUE)

 

9.There is no broad recognition of a scandal that directly touches the president.

(TRUE)

 

10.There has been no military or foreign policy failure during the term, substantial enough that it appears to undermine America’s national interests significantly or threaten its standing in the world. (UNCERTAIN)

 

11.There has been a military or foreign policy success during the term substantial enough to advance America’s national interests or improve its standing in the world.

(FALSE)

 

12.The incumbent-party candidate is charismatic or is a national hero.

(FALSE)

 

13.The challenger is not charismatic and is not a national hero.

(TRUE)

 

 

If six or more of these statements are false, the incumbent party loses.

[Faarax-Brawn]

Libaax-Sankataabte;745101 wrote:

FB, Obama waxbuu la aamusan yahay. I am still puzzled by the persona of this man. Either he knows something we don't know, or he is doomed to fail. Tonight we will see what plan he has.

 

Here is a piece from informs.org

 

"With the presidential election a year and a half away, campaigning and punditry are already intense, with many commentators noting Obama’s low approval numbers in the polls and pronouncing him highly vulnerable. The most reliable model of presidential elections, however, indicates a different answer. Based on his “13 keys” model, quantitative historian Allan Lichtman called the 2012 election for Obama nearly a year ago, with some caveats about how some keys might change. His predictions are based on 13 questions, each with a “true” or “false” answer (see box). “True” answers favor the incumbent party. If five or fewer answers are “false,” the incumbent party retains the presidency; if six or more are “false,” the challenger wins."

Intresting, that is actually 5/out of six(i am counting,the "probably true of the reccession into false)...that is too close for comfort. But,dude is way too calm and sober for his issues. If that was me,it will show on my face, and i wouldve gone off on boehner on national tv with some expletives ala rahm style.

[Gheelle.T]

All he has to do is grow a bone and stand on his feet. And not only him, but entire democratic party. The man has been acting in such a feeble way lately, I am afraid he may end up as another Carter.

 

Just watch him tonight, he will promise million of things he knows he cant deliver, and after republicans make noises, he will abandon those promises entirely. The only thing that may work for him in 2012 is that the wackos have no better candidate. They are either religious fanatics who will say anything to please the hardliners, libertarian whose ideas are great, but not wanted by the party, or a democrat in R-shirt, Mitty.

[Abdul]

In 2008,4 groups overwhemingly voted for obama and handed him the whitehouse-blacks,Hispanics,women and the young voters.In 2012, the blacks will for sure be on his side again.The Hispanic vote can be tricky but they will have to choose between Obama who supports immigration reform but done nothing so far and a GOP candidate who is anti-immigrant.I think they will stick with him but not by large numbers.women and young voters i think will be key to winning the whitehouse and Obama has the edge.