Consensus for All-inclusive Somali Conference inside Somalia

[xiinfaniin]

Milestones to get the Momentum going;

 

It appears, for the first time, Somalis across political spectrum agree on the need for Somalis to come together and solve this conflict by themselves. This is a welcome first step, but critical questions remain unanswered, most pressing of which are who would lead the process, which venue would be best fit for it, and can it be done without input from international war profiteers (i.e. UN NGOs). But more importantly, what would alshabaab’s role be? Can a government without this group ever be formed and succeed? Since 2006, attempts of military intervention and international isolation to weaken alshabaab’s military superiority in the south have been tried to no avail. Despite recent publicity of tfg military successes, the movement still holds sway in large, important centers in the south, Mogadishu included. If the goal of any Somali conference is to stabilize the country and reach political settlement, any reconciliation process must take into account, find room for alshabaab movement. How would Somalis ever do that?

 

The Nairobi meeting was effective in the sense that it made amply clear that the UN project in Somalia has only one deliverable, and that is to ensure the instability in Somalia continues. Sharif Hassan turned out to be the sole looser. Galmadug had an opportunity to introduce itself to an important gathering, so it gained political stature, and cemented its place in Somali affairs as a federal state.

 

Faroole has gotten an audience to present Puntland’s achievements and build case for its capacity to hold Somali conference. And to a large degree he succeeded in that regard. But if he is serious in achieving the honor of holding Somalia’s last gathering to reestablish its lost statehood, he must build bridges with the TFG executive. It is improbable that Somaliland will endorse Puntland in holding a conference, so Faroole needs to reach out TFG leaders and convince them that he has the logistics to organize a gathering. He seems to be competing with TFG over the influence of UN offices, and that is really a bad sign for a leader who claims to want the return of Somali state. He has the logistics, the land, and structure of government and for that he deserves a respect but he must not repeat the mistakes of former Puntland leaders in rushing to attain Somalia’s empty, and broken presidential seat.

 

TFG has done a good job in framing their rejection of the Nairobi meeting as an opposition to foreign meddling, but they come a bit a late in suggesting an alternative for Somali owned conference. Farmaajo’s proposal for a June conference is a welcome step in that regard. But tfg has allowed a leadership vacuum to develop, and that vacuum is partially occupied by other leaders now, Faroole included. If they truly want to leave behind a good legacy for Somalis, they must rise above the petty arguments between them and other Somali regional admins. Sharif and Farmaajo need to reach out to Puntland, Somaliland and other states and work toward ensuring an independent Somali owned conference is held inside Somalia. They must understand theirs is not a government, but a political arrangement to transition the country from the twenty-year impasse. So insisting for extension for themselves defeats the purpose. I am sure other Somalis will understand for us to attain a full functioning government, a temporary political arrangement with trust worthy leadership will be needed. But that arrangement need not be the continuation of the current one. Farmaajo and Sharif can play a constructive role in shaping that arrangement through consensus seeking, and confidence building means, and in good faith they shall succeed.

 

As for Alshabaab, if they turn down the invitation as they are expected to do, the conference shall proceed without them. If other Somalis agree to put their differences behind and work together to revive their government, they shall devise other strategies to draw in alshabaab support. Alshabaab authority shall be treated as regional admins. I am sure the political environment will impose limitations on alshabaab rhetoric once other Somalis agree on all-inclusive central government.

 

The formula of holding an independent Somali owned conference is simple: respect, compromise, collaboration, and coordination between tfg, and other regional states.

Will the Somalis do this? What you think?

[General Duke]

Well said Xiin, but will these men come together in the spirit of cooperation that is required at this time? Only time will tell.

[xiinfaniin]

Generale, lets hope these men realize now is the moment to compromise. Especially the Farmaajo/Sharif Cabinet and that of Puntland is full of a competent men who can discern real political requirement for stable Somalia. I am sure they understand that none of them will ever have real authority as long strong Somali state is absent .

[Xaaji Xunjuf]

What's the point of having a reconciliation conference inside the country if the big stakeholder Alshabaab is not present, I am not sure there are no beefing clans in Somalia any more. it's all about groups and different clan states. Galmudug Puntland Ximan iyo xeeb Ahlu sunna Azania all want a federal Somalia there is no beef between them. You need Alshabaab if you want some progress.

[nuune]

^^ Xaaji Xeyraan, adiga Amir Godane ayaa kuu daran yeah, no one is denying them iney ka soo qeeb galaan, hadey diidaana, looma xayyirnaanaayo.

[Xaaji Xunjuf]

Nuuna Amiirku wu imanaya shirka hadanay gaalo iyo bahuku iyo inadeerki mahiga anay meesha joogin oo dad islaami ay shirayan Amiirku wa balan wa isi so xaadirinaya.

[nuune]

Xaaji Xeyraan, waa hagaag hadduu Amiirkaagu imanayo, loo diidi maayo haduusan asaga diidin, waala soo dhaweyn, haduu diidana waa laga tashan loona tashiili maayo hadhowna tusbaxaa loo qoyn, jago haduu rabana waala siin, shirku waa Soomaali, Soomaali baa qabanqaabineysa, Soomaaliyaa lagu qaban, Soomaalidaa la iskugu keeni, waxa joogi doono waa Soomaali, wax kasta waa Soomaali, hal qofoo ajnabi ah waa ka xaaraan haduu Eebe Idmo.

[xiinfaniin]

^^Waad haysaa ya Ustaad

 

Xaaji Xunguruf, both Godane and Siilaanyo (a man I respect) should have reserved seats on the front row, they are welcome as they are important players.

 

PS. we can even persuade Faroole to accept a Hargeysa hosted one , if secessionist can wake up from their delusion, and get on board as they will eventually have to do on Somali unity.

[Xaaji Xunjuf]

nuune;712241 wrote:

Xaaji Xeyraan

, waa hagaag hadduu Amiirkaagu imanayo, loo diidi maayo haduusan asaga diidin, waala soo dhaweyn, haduu diidana waa laga tashan loona tashiili maayo hadhowna tusbaxaa loo qoyn, jago haduu rabana waala siin, shirku waa Soomaali, Soomaali baa qabanqaabineysa, Soomaaliyaa lagu qaban, Soomaalidaa la iskugu keeni, waxa joogi doono waa Soomaali, wax kasta waa Soomaali, hal qofoo ajnabi ah waa ka xaaraan haduu Eebe Idmo.

Nuuna waxaso oo dhani wa ogalaan kara Amiirku balse meel ay gacanta ay ku hayaan Dawlada meel ma gaadho iyo Abayashood Mahiga iyo bahuku shir lugu ma qaban karo Amiirku ma ogala Amiirku wuxu ogalyahay oo kaliya in shirka lugu qabto meel xor ah oo xalaal oo Somalida isugu timada Gaaalo iyo ajanabi na loom ogala.

[General Duke]

Xiin, You made valid points, if Puntland sent a team led by Abdulkadir Ali Hashi or Dr Jimcaale to Mogadishu and sat with the cabinet, things could easily be worked out.

Instead everyone meets in foreign lands and talks through foreigners.

 

XX, Godane needs the permission of his foreign handlers to even come out of the shadow. I don’t think Somali’s have time to talk to Amrikii and others.

[Jacaylbaro]

Somali Unity my .............

 

This is where everything goes wrong ... until then I'll just be enjoying the show.

[xiinfaniin]

General Duke;712250 wrote:

Xiin, You made valid points, if Puntland sent a team led by Abdulkadir Ali Hashi or Dr Jimcaale to Mogadishu and sat with the cabinet, things could easily be worked out.

Instead everyone meets in foreign lands and talks through foreigners.

Generale, the lack of relationship between Somali players in our conflict is what facilitates and sustains current intervention. I am amazed how uninitiated we are in this basic requirement 0f solving our political impasse. Somalis will have fond memory for the years to come of whoever breaks first the political culture of empowering foreign entities to facilitate Somali talks. I would be happy for whoever takes the initiative first, Faroole or Sharif/Farmaajo team.

[Taleexi]

Sorry, Somalis aren't there yet for compromise.

[Che -Guevara]

Jacaylbaro;712252 wrote:

until then I'll just be enjoying the show.

schadenfreude? That would explain few things.

 

Xiin....Political apathy of the general public and indifference to their own sufferings will continue to drive this conflict.

[Libaax-Sankataabte]

Xiin, good points awoowe. I agree that a formal meeting to elect the next generation of leadership should be held inside the country. This is what many Somalis have been calling for years. Faroole has seized that mantle already and the current TFG is now following suit. Having said that, Alshabaab will almost certainly not participate any gathering absent of full AMISOM withdrawal. That very truth may be the one impediment to peace in the South. Remember, there are no warring regions to bring peace to. It is the Al-Shabaab variable that needs to be manipulated. The only way to do so is to either trounce the entity militarily or meet their demands. It is a tough nut to crack and I am afraid the situation will be at a stalemate for some time to come.

 

 

I will give more thought another time.