Wiki Leaks on Somalia

[Che -Guevara]

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NEW ETHIOPIAN OPTIONS FOR SOMALIA

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¶13. (C/NF) On Somalia, Meles said that his government "had

been reviewing our options," and will present its

recommendations to President Abdullahi Yusuf when he passes

through Addis on his return from London. Meles said that he

is hoping to withdraw most of our troops, if not all of them,

by the summer. Meles was hopeful that additional forces from

the African Union Mission in Somalia (AMISOM) would be on the

ground by the time of Ethiopia's withdrawal, including the

remaining Burundian forces and the Nigerian battalion, and

that the forces from the TFG that had been trained by

Ethiopia, Uganda, Tanzania, and Rwanda would be able to play

a greater role in maintaining security. At this point, the

Ethiopian forces will withdraw to the Ethiopian side of the

border, where they would be ready to respond quickly should

something happen, but the combined TFG and AMISOM forces

would be responsible for maintaining security. Meles noted

that some elements within the TFG were mistakenly counting on

an indefinite Ethiopian presence and said that he hoped that

Ethiopia's withdrawal would help those elements within the

TFG become more flexible.

ADDIS ABAB 00000286 004 OF 005

 

¶14. (C/NF) At the same time, Ethiopia will pursue a second

track of continuing to reach out to the opposition and

helping to make the TFG "more effective." Noting the complex

clan balances in the Mogadishu and Kismaayo areas, Meles said

that he was encouraging the TFG to form regional governments

in both areas to help bring greater stability and help

balance clan sensitivities. Meles said that he was

continuing to engage with the ******, particularly the Hab-ir

Ge-*** sub-clan, and that he was pleased that Ahmed Abdisalam

Adan (******/Habir Gedir/***) had been brought into the new

TFG Cabinet as one of the Deputy Prime Ministers. In

response to a question from A/S Frazer, Meles indicated that

it may be possible for the TFG to dismiss Mogadishu Mayor

Mohamed Dheere (Hawi-ye/Ab-gal). However, Meles seemed to be

more concerned regarding the situation in Kismaayo, where the

problems were within the ****** clan rather than the ******.

(Comment: While President Yusuf is from the ******/Mijer-teen

sub-clan, the Dar-ood presence in Kismaayo is largely from the

Dar-ood/Mare-han sub-clan. End Comment.)

 

¶15. (C/NF) Meles also noted that his government had been

reaching out to the external opposition based in Asmara.

Meles opined that the opposition seemed uncomfortable with

the current situation and that it was now possible to bring

the opposition back into a political process. Saudi Arabia

could also play a helpful role in persuading some of the

former members of the Council of Islamic Courts to come back

into a political process, according to Meles. At the same

time, said Meles, there are now divisions within the Shabaab,

and "Aweys may no longer be in control" of the movement.

Meles emphasized the importance of isolating the Shabaab,

building the capacity of the TFG, and reaching out to the

opposition and key stakeholders. Meles said that he had

discussed parts of this strategy with TFG Prime Minister Nur

"Adde" Hassan Hussein, but that they were waiting to discuss

the military components with President Yusuf first given his

sensitivities on military arrangements.

 

¶16. (C/NF) A/S Frazer responded that this sounded like a

good plan, but one that required lots of work both with

AMISOM and the TFG. A/S Frazer noted that Ugandan President

Museveni had offered--pending discussions with his officials

at home--to deploy an additional two battalions under AMISOM

if the U.S. could provide financial support, which we would

try to do. Meles responded that this would be very helpful

and said that he would speak to Museveni about this

possibility. Meles also noted the importance of training an

effective Somali police force and that he was hoping to train

more Somali police if financial support could be identified.

A/S Frazer responded that we would see if we could identify

any funds to support this effort.

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US IMPROVING RELATIONS WITH SOMALILAND

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¶17. (C/NF) Turning to Somaliland, A/S Frazer noted the

recent visit of Somaliland President Dahir Rayale Kahin to

Washington. While some may interpret this visit as a sign

that the U.S. was on the verge of formal recognition, A/S

Frazer clarified that the United States was not getting ready

to recognize Somaliland, but believed that it was important

to engage with them to ensure regional stability. At the

same time, A/S Frazer said that the United States would not

be opposed to Somaliland independence if it should happen

within an AU context. A/S Frazer said that she had raised

the issue with AU Chairperson Alpha Oumar Konare, who seemed

to be placing unrealistic conditions for addressing the

Somaliland issue. The first was that Somaliland negotiate

with the government in Mogadishu, either the TFG or its

successor, regarding its independence, and the second was

that there be a regional consensus on Somaliland's status,

neither of which are likely to happen or result in any clear

decisions.

 

¶18. (C/NF) Meles said that Ethiopia's position on Somaliland

was the same as that of the United States, but that the

political situation within the AU was not yet ripe for

addressing the Somaliland issue. Meles said that he met with

ADDIS ABAB 00000286 005 OF 005

Rayale upon his return from Washington and urged him to write

to the AU requesting that they identify a timeframe for a

discussion on the Somaliland issue. However, Rayale "messed

things up" by essentially re-sending his previous letter

requesting recognition and membership in the AU, rather than

asking for a timeframe for a discussion on Somaliland. Meles

said that, if Somaliland had taken the route that he

suggested, it would have been likely that the issue could

have been addressed soon. However, if the elections for a

new AU Chairperson take place during the AU Summit, Meles

said that the next chairperson is unlikely to be as positive

towards Somaliland as Konare, which will only further delay

any discussion of Somaliland.

 

¶19. (C/NF) Meles also noted the complications of the current

political situation inside Somaliland with the delays in

preparations for the municipal and presidential elections.

While avoiding any specifics, Meles said that the clan

dynamics in Somaliland were out of balance, but that it was

important to convey to Rayale that he could not rely on

"outside forces" to tilt the balance in his favor. Even if

Ethiopia tried to intervene on Rayale,s behalf, Meles said,

the effort would fail.

 

http://hiiraan.com/news/2011/Mar/Viewing_cable_08ADDISABABA286.pdf

[Valenteenah.]

Incredible. Waxaanu noqonay an open, dog-eared, well read book for the xabashi. How ironic that Meles worries about balancing clan dynamics and sensitivities in both the differing Southern and Northern situations when the regional leaderships don't even seem to give it a passing thought.

[SOO MAAL]

Ethiopia has a huge vested interest in keeping Somalia divided and weak because of the O'ga'den Region/Western Somalia. Melez supports all the somali clan-enclaves and warlords like SL, PL, Ahlu Sunna, Galmudug, etc

 

Ethiopia doesn't want a repeat of 1977 War.

[Taleexi]

We can curse and finger point Ethiopia and external forces all day long but be mind the solutions of our prolonged predicament are to be found within.

[Som@li]

^Taleexi, I agree..

[Jacaylbaro]

Interesting .......................

[Liqaye]

The ethopians are experts at exploiting and expanding the cleaveges with in the somali political leadership, but that is because 90% of them are irretrivably venal, lakiin humans may plan but Allah [s.W.T] is the greater planner was it not only 3 months ago when the entire range of discourse on Egyptian politics was wether at the age of 82 Mubarak would run again or let his son inherit the presidency!!

The americans and the europeans are building an expedient house of cards in ethopia, today meles struts as the go to guy, the little woyane napoleon, but tommorow is diffrent territory, for all his peasant cunning, he has built an edifice that cannot be reformed but can only be brought down...and when that happens 70 million ethopians sitting on ethnic rage after millenia of occupation are going to lay down the dead bodies at the feet of these gray personalities like frazier and carson.

Indeed the ethopians take advantage of every somali politician that can be bought and sold for cents as well as the somali qabiil mentality, but things change however much 20 years of war might have retarded our growth, we have in our own way realised that only through democracy and consultation and the acceptance of the local populace can anything really be done, whilst the TPLF build their masada in mekele, and lean ever more on ethnic politics, state security brutality as well as mafia control of their economy. Mark my words meles is the last leader of a unified ethopia, that construct will not last after him and his blood sucking croterie.

 

But I HOPE somalis realise this shame, that we would propogate the faults of our fathers here on SOL is a shame.

 

Just to remind my brethren Frazer and Meles might have said but Allah [s.W.T] has not said.

 

Somaliyaa Hanoolato.

[Xaaji Xunjuf]

Melez turubka wu kala dhig dhigaya

[Mayaani]

History teaches us lesson but nobody looks back has happen. we have been killing each other so long nobody knows who is real enemy or who is brother that you can count when you need. Nin oday oo ilaahay caqli ugu deeqay baa yiri "Soomaaliday dayaya wanaag, idinka doorsoonye" intaana wuxuu ku daray duluc kale oo oranaysa " Bal inay dalfoof tahay caqliga, dooni laga saaray

Wixii hore usoo daashadaay, degashanaysaaye

Doc hadday u wada jeedsatooy, dhowrto danaheeda

Ooy duul walaala ah tahaooy, duunka ka heshiiso

Dadka kama yaraateene ways, dabar jaraysaaye"