Offensive Inshallah launched - so what?

[Jacaylbaro]

After months of threatening or promising depending on your loyalties and where you live, the TFG have finally done what they said they would. They have attacked Al Shabaab forces in Mogadishu and along the border between Mandera (Kenya) and Beletweyne (Ethiopia) ASWJ plus Ethiopian forces and a miscellany of old and not so bold Warlords - or as they now are more politically correctly referred to "tribal forces" have taken a number of villages/town from Shabaab. We are told that in the Galgadud area the ASWJ & Ethiopian forces are even on the doorstep of Ceel Bur. There have been reports of tanks and helicopters, reports of Kenyan military involvement to Ethiopian forces operating from Kenyan territory and newly trained Somali forces from Ethiopia joining ASWJ in Galgadud.

 

Of course, in all of this details appear to be alarmingly deficient. A cynic once said that the "truth is an interesting but irrelevant part of any good story", Now, not that we at CHC want to be considered cynics if indeed the good folk of the TFG and company are finally doing their job, we do however wonder at what appears to be some lacking in substance as well as what can best be described as a "cleft stick" that the TFG may be putting themselves into.

 

That fighting is heavy in Mogadishu is clear. From AMISOM casualty rates (wounded being treated in all neighbouring countries) to Shabaab reports of dead and captured Burundian soldiers, this is clear. CHC sources have informed us of a number of occasions where AMISOM forces were on the verge of being over-run by Shabaab in counter attacks and had to be reinforced by Ugandan Special Forces. Heavy fighting yes - ground taken?

 

Of course conspicuously absent in this narrative is what the TFG forces are actually doing. Even if they are fighting alongside the AMISOM forces, if AMISOM want to avoid falling even further into the trap of comparison with the Ethiopians who they replaced, TFG forces must replace them and hold any ground taken. With General Yusuf Mohammed Siad AKA Indha’ade now back in the TFG fold, they do have some seasoned and effective military commanders, sadly that does not necessarily equate to effective and motivated soldiers.

 

In theatres outside of Mogadishu the picture is even less clearly substantiated by evidence. CHC sources are inclined to believe that Shabaab forces are doing what they have repeatedly done in the past when Ethiopian forces of any strength have come across the border - they simply vacate and wait for another day and time to return and fight. Given that past behaviour is the best indicator of future behaviour, one would not be completely wrong to believe that the same problem faces the Ethiopians along the border that now faces the AMISOM forces - if they remain they are once again occupiers and yet if they leave, can ASWJ and others hold the ground against Shabaab?

 

In all of this the question beyond those identified already is the biggest of all - so what? For an offensive this one to date appears to lack coordination and common purpose. And so the question begged is why now? Why are we seeing this offensive at this time? Effective or ineffective as it may be. CHC sources have varied on some elements but there is agreement on a number of salient points.

 

* The TFG needs to desperately convince the international community that they are viable and relevant. With an August deadline the TFG needs to demonstrate what they have been incapable of to date.

* AMISOM and all related activities are seen as an effective "revenue generating" entity by many Somalis - just not for Somalis. Each "offensive" makes money for an extended grouping.

* Ethiopia wants to see the Kenyan "Jubba Land" project scuttled as they fear it would provide a safe operating base for the ONLF.

* Kenya has received international donor dollars to train Somali forces and need to produce some results, while of course pursuing the Jubba Land buffer zone concept.

 

Whether any of the above is valid remains to be seen, however even a cursory examination of the points demonstrates nothing close to mutually compatible objectives. It is therefore with interest that we watch as results unfold over the upcoming days and weeks. It is unfortunate that while we can observe the developments safely there are untold numbers of Somalis who yet again are going to have to respond to conflict at a time when they are already overwhelmed by the current drought.

[Jacaylbaro]

Source: http://www.chaihousechatter.org/chai-opinions/2011/3/8/offensive-inshallah-launched-so-what.html

[London2010]

How much of what they are claiming is real.