Professor Michael Weinstein Assesment of Somalia in 2010 and Predictions for 2011

[Abdirazak_PTL]

I advice you to read this because it is a very interesting analysis by professor weinstein on somalia politics in 2010 and where we might be heading in 2011. An Excellent Piece that truly reflects the reality of Somalia as it is without any bias towards noone.

 

http://radiodaljir.com/audio/docs/SOMALIA_2011_FRENZIED_DANCING_IN_PLACE.pdf

[Jacaylbaro]

Stuff & Nonsense ...

[Abdirazak_PTL]

My fellow Puntlanders this is what Professor Weinstein has had to say regarding our state's politics in 2010!!!

 

The big changes of 2010:

1. Puntland becomes more independent of the T.F.G. and donor policy.

 

As the stasis has persisted, Puntland’s administration led by President Abdirahman Mohamed Farole appears to have decided to pursue a policy that positions it as more independent of the T.F.G. than it had been previously. Whether this move leads in the direction of declaring independence will depend on Puntland’s success in moving the T.F.G. and its international supporters towards a “federalist” formula for post‐independence Somalia that gives Puntland a generous autonomy in regulating its internal affairs and development.

 

At present the situation cuts two ways. Whereas past T.F.G. administrations had included a president or prime minister from Puntland’s dominant northern ***** clan family, the new T.F.G. administration’s prime minister is a southern *****, Mohamed Farmajo. The change in the T.F.G. has led to a perceived loss of influence in the T.F.G. by Puntland. Washington’s dual‐track policy, on the other hand, could convince Puntland to stick with the T.F.G. if the donors demanded that it be executed with Puntland’s affiliation with the T.F.G.

 

Puntland has been disaffected with both the T.F.G. and the donors, although it desires aid and diplomatic support from the latter. The administration claims that it has not been consulted on the future of Somalia when the T.F.G.’s mandate is either extended beyond August 2011, or the T.F.G. is replaced by a permanent government. Puntland has also been rebuffed by the donors on its appeals for aid to build anti‐piracy bases on the region’s coast. On the first issue, Puntland has proposed that it hold a broad reconciliation conference for post‐independence Somalia and, on the second, it has signed an agreement with a private security firm, Saracen International, funded by an unnamed “Muslim country” (a trusted closed sources says it is the United Arab Emirates), to train an anti‐piracy force.

 

By edging towards a more independent position towards the T.F.G. and donors, if not independence, Puntland has put itself into play, complicating the conjuncture for other actors. Puntland always had the independence card up its sleeve; now it is edging into the open. Score one for fission, unless there is a “federalist” outcome for Puntland that satisfies its interests in security and resource autonomy. Puntland seems to have judged that it has waited long enough for the T.F.G. and the donors to satisfy its interests, and that it intends either to push them or go it alone to a greater degree and augment its “partners.”

 

2011: Some questions to consider:

 

1. Will Puntland move towards declaring independence or separating itself de facto? Or will it hang in with “Somalia” because of external pressure and inducements?

[Abdirazak_PTL]

Jacaylbaro If you think its stuff n nonsense then dont read it. Anyways I think the professor analysis is spot on and as for his 2011 predictions regarding Puntland politices I think president farole will hang in there with Somalia only to a certain extent of course. I believe if somalia fail to reach some sort consensus in the up-coming political conference to be held in Puntland then puntland will say they have tried as much as they can and will separate not go indepedent but separate until the forces in the south are ready to accept federalism.

 

So thats my guess I think Puntland will become de-facto status without declaring indepedence. As for the donor nations well Puntland has become fed up with them there is no question about that and from the amount of news pieces I read in 2010 alot of them had to do with criticising the donor nations not providing development funds as required and puntland has enacted tougher laws with the donor organisation operating inside puntland and making them more accountable by declaring each year what they have done for puntland.

 

Anyways excellent piece by Prof. Weinstein and I believe puntland will become defacto in 2011 if the peace conference turns sour but you never know they may declare indepedence. Anyways 2011 will be interesting year to see how long will Puntland hold in