Has the Nile Water War Begun?

[Kamaavi]

A WikiLeaks document has revealed that Egypt has fears about the possible impact that Southern Sudan's secession may have on its Nile water quota, and that it therefore sought to convince Washington to postpone the scheduled referendum in the South. However one does not need to read this document in order to know that the Nile water issue is open to a number of complications, and that in the near future this is something that may come to overshadow all other regional issues. Anybody listening to the statements, observing the frantic manoeuvres, or watching the growing tension, might already feel that the Nile Water War has begun in earnest.

 

Ethiopian Prime Minister, Meles Zenawi is leading his country’s organized campaign which is demanding a redistribution of Nile water resources and the amendment of old agreements. In a recent statement, he appeared to fire a provocative ‘bullet’ in Cairo's direction when he claimed that Egypt could not win a war against Ethiopia over the distribution of Nile resources. Zenawi revealed the true proportions of this underlying crisis when he accused Egypt of supporting rebel groups [in Ethiopia] as part of an attempt to destabilize the country, due to Egypt's dispute over the distribution of the Nile waters. In an interview he conducted with Reuters toward the end of last month, Zenawi said: "I am not worried that the Egyptians will suddenly invade Ethiopia. Nobody who has tried that has lived to tell the story. I don't think the Egyptians will be any different and I think they know that." This statement, which was devoid of the usual diplomatic rhetoric, indicates that there is a mounting crisis [over the issue of the distribution of Nile resources] between the two most important players in this region, which has now entered a new phase with the use of the war-like language.

 

On one hand, the largest Nile tributary runs through Ethiopia, as the country lies at the source of the Blue Nile which supplies the River Nile with more than two-thirds of its running water and fertile soil. Moreover, Ethiopia has one of the highest birth-rates in the world, and by 2025 its population will have reached 113, over-taking Egypt to become the second most populous country in Africa, after Nigeria. Over the past 30 years, Ethiopia has been stricken by terrible famine and drought which prompted the government to erect five giant dams over the past ten years. This has reignited the old dispute over Nile water, and the question of how to reconcile the increasing needs of the Nile Basin countries, and the limited water resources offered by the Nile.

 

Egypt, on the other hand, is the primary consumer of Nile water, and the Nile is considered the country’s chief lifeline. That is why this issue is being discussed as if it were a matter of life or death. Egypt believes that Ethiopia is the driving force behind demands to revoke the old agreements that govern the distribution of Nile water and calls for new agreements to be made which would see upstream Nile countries granted a large share of the Nile's resources, inevitably resulting in a decrease of Egypt's share. Nevertheless, Egypt responded in a diplomatic manner to Zenawi's statement, preferring not to further escalate the issue. Cairo expressed surprise at the Ethiopian warning and maintained that Egyp it was not considering war as an option to resolve the Nile water issue, stating that it is committed to a strategy of dialogue and negotiations to resolve this problem. However Cairo also stressed that in the event of a solution not being reached, Egypt would exercise its right to resort to international law to protect what it deems to be its historical rights, as defined by international agreements. After dismissing Zenawi's accusation that Egypt was supporting rebel groups with the aim of destabilizing Ethiopia, Cairo accused Zenawi of being behind the Cooperative Framework Agreement signed by five Nile upstream states, namely Ethiopia, Uganda, Rwanda, Kenya and Tanzania. The agreement is also supported by the Democratic Republic of Congo and Burundi; however both countries have expressed reservations about signing this as they are wary of escalating tensions with the Nile downstream countries, particularly Egypt and Sudan.

 

Cairo has launched intense diplomatic efforts towards the signatories of the Cooperative Framework Agreement, in an attempt to prevent what it regards as an Ethiopian move to isolate Egypt, and force Cairo to renegotiate the distribution of the water resources of the longest river in the world. The Egyptian diplomatic efforts towards the Democratic Republic of Congo and Burundi were successful, yet they failed to stop the other five countries from signing the agreement. If the provisions of this agreement are implemented, this would inevitably lead to a major confrontation between the Nile countries on the grounds that this would undermine the former agreement and allow each country to act of its own volition [with regards to the Nile water resources] or result in the formation of two competing blocs, which is something that could result in war.

 

Meanwhile, Egypt is intently observing the recent developments in Sudan, and fears that following next year's self-determiantion referendum, any newly formed southern state might side with the Cooperative Framework Agreement states, especially as there are strong ties between the ruling Sudan People's Liberation Movement (SPLM) in South Sudan and Ethiopia, Kenya and Uganda. All three countries supported the armed struggle and diplomatic efforts of the SPLM for long years, both prior to the signing of the Comprehensive Peace Agreement, and afterwards. Even if a newly formed state of Southern Sudan did not adopt a confrontational stance similar to that of the Cooperative Framework Agreement states; its mere establishment would open the door to re-negotiations over how the Nile water resources are divided. Some people have suggested that the water quota for an independent southern state of Sudan should be taken from the share granted to Egypt and Sudan or from Sudan's share alone.

 

These complexities are further compounded when we take into account the warnings of environmentalists, who indicate that the coming decades will see a marked rise in temperature rates and a gradual decrease in rainfall in many countries around the world, including some Nile states. Perhaps the worst case scenario would be the continued escalation of tensions amongst the Nile states, at a time where fierce international competition is taking place over natural resources in Africa. Needless to say, there are external parties monitoring the situation, waiting for the slightest opportunity to incite conflicts and wars.

 

Source

[Mad_Mullah]

Ya Rab let there be a war between Egypt and Ethiopia! We would certainly benefit from it.

[Jacaylbaro]

No Wonder your name is "Mad Mullah" ........

[Mad_Mullah]

Jacaylbaro;681053 wrote:

No Wonder your name is "Mad Mullah" ........

I understand why a Somalilander wouldn't want this, as he's to loyal to his Habashi masters but me as someone from SomaliGalbeed wants to see this happen, this war will certainly weaken Ethiopia and we can take over SomaliGalbeed. Just like the Kurds did in Iraq.

[Kamaavi]

Water is a scarce resource in the desert regions of the Middle East. Though disputes over water have come close to triggering wars between nations of the region in the past, diplomats intervened to keep tensions to a minimum. Now a new study suggests that over the next 20 years, water shortages could trigger unrest within national borders instead of between the nations of the Middle East.

 

In the past, Middle East scholars have often pointed to shared river basins and disputes over underground water rights as causes for potential conflict between nations. That may not be surprising, because 10 of the 15 most water-poor countries in the world are in the region. But according to a new study by the Center for Strategic and International Studies, CSIS, in Washington, limited supplies of underground water within national borders of the Middle East pose a more immediate challenge.

 

Jon Alterman, director of the Middle East Program at CSIS and author of the new study, says water is a fundamental part of the social contract in Middle Eastern countries.

 

"Water is deeply tied in to how all these governments work," noted Alterman. "Water is a way to reward people; water is a way to build allegiances, and water is a sign that a government can actually do things. If the water goes away then suddenly the whole deal that holds the government together goes away. That is a fundamental problem for these governments and the people who live under them."

 

Alterman argues that the water problem in the Middle East grew out of the "green revolution" that swept the region between 1980 and 1992. During that period, underground water was heavily used to sustain agriculture, feed the growing populations and to irrigate the desert as a form of national pride. He says the depletion of such groundwater resources will have lasting consequences for how Middle Eastern governments function and deal with their citizens.

 

Alterman says another problem related to water supplies is the movement of peoples from rural areas the cities. This migration, he says, further reduces groundwater supplies and increases tensions among ethnic or national factions.

 

"The first thing is to understand that there is a problem," added Alterman. "The principal problem, the real problem, is access to water within countries. Countries' water resources are going dry. It requires individual national governments to think not only about supply but also of ways to diminish the demand for water."

 

To help out on the supply side of water resources, a Center for Strategic and International Studies study suggests that governments should consider using treated wastewater for irrigation. On the demand side, the study recommends that countries impose strict water pricing systems and offer incentives for conservation. It will be also crucial to educate people about appropriate use of water.

 

If serious action is not taken, Alterman warns, for example, that Sana'a, Yemen will run out of groundwater in 2017, resulting in political and social unrest.

 

General Anthony Zinni, former commander of the U.S. Central Command, argues global cooperation is needed to prevent instability in Middle East over water shortages.

 

"This needs to be a global issue, not just an individual country issue," said Zinni. "I do think there have to be regional approaches and regional strategies. I know some have advocated very specific, small number of strategies, maybe one for every nation or society. I don't think that will work. These water resources span a number of societies. These are regional and maybe super-regional issues."

 

Zinni points out, for example, that sharing water resources will be a major issue in any peaceful settlement of the Israeli-Palestinian dispute. The former U.S. Middle East envoy also cites past disputes between Syria and Turkey over waters from the Euphrates River and the ongoing tensions between Egypt and some African countries over water from the Nile River basin.

 

"I think, given other tensions, that [water shortages] could erupt and just throw another log on the fire in many cases [cause additional problems]. I think the U.S. role in trying to help develop regional strategies, bring parties together, share technology, global attention, non-governmental organizations, and international organizations that deal with water issues - somehow gaining their cooperation and involvement in this process too," added Zinni.

 

General Zinni echoes the conclusion of the new report from the Center for Strategic and International Studies: that skilled governance and diplomacy will be needed to prevent water shortages in the Middle East from triggering widespread conflict.

 

Source

[Kamaavi]

Mad_Mullah;681022 wrote:

Ya Rab let there be a war between Egypt and Ethiopia! We would certainly benefit from it.

Easy with the careless remarks, Mullana Saab. It's just a diplomatic war. Nile should remain Nile and give life, not take it.

[Mad_Mullah]

Kamaavi;681127 wrote:

Easy with the careless remarks, Mullana Saab. It's just a diplomatic war. Nile should remain Nile and give life, not take it.

Careless remarks? How is that? The enemy of my enemy is my friend, its a diplomatic war for now, but that can quickly change.

[Jacaylbaro]

Do u know anything else rather than wars, fighting, killing and chaos ???

[Mad_Mullah]

Jacaylbaro;681180 wrote:

Do u know anything else rather than wars, fighting, killing and chaos ???

I know freedom and resistance, I don't understand why you people condemn what I say, are you really that interrested for your Habashi masters?

 

This is what happened 3 days ago in a Somali, Muslim town..you know the people you're supposed to support instead of ignoring or even worse giving to the Habasha

Reports reaching our service desk from the ****** online and Radio Xoriyo reporter in the city of Degahbour confirm the burning down of the town of Farmadow by the Ethiopian military and an associated militia on Dec 15th, 2010.

 

Reliable sources from the town and its environs report that a fierce battle took place in the outskirts of the town between ****** National Liberation Army, ONLA, and the Ethiopian military station in the town.

 

Although no official reports are available yet however eyewitness accounts indicate that the Ethiopian military was defeated handily in this battle. As result, it is reported that fleeing Ethiopian soldiers entered the town and started burning down the town.

 

At least 3 people who couldn't escape were burned alive in their houses, among them are:

 

1. 71 year old women whom we did't get her name

2. Cabdi Fiqi Yusuf

3. The Son of Dayib Salaad Faarax, who was a mentally challenged individual

[Voltaire]

Jacaylbaro;681053 wrote:

No Wonder your name is "Mad Mullah" ........

Touché.

[Kamaavi]

Mad_Mullah;681132 wrote:

Careless remarks? How is that? The enemy of my enemy is my friend, its a diplomatic war for now, but that can quickly change.

The idea of supporting the enemy of your enemy has never been a smart one, Mullana Saab. The enemy of your enemy might well turn out to be your enemy. Think deeper!

[Mad_Mullah]

Why would Egypt be our enemy? As for Ethiopia, they're next to us, reason enough. Somaliland is dependent on Ethiopia so I understand why you would want to see it safe, ya3ni you're 2010 House Negroes.

 

Its funny how Somaliland has no problem with its youth going to South Somalia to cause mayhem and kill Somalis, while they do everything not to anger the Ethiopians, the only legitimate Jihad in the Horn of Africa.

[Abwaan]

Mad_Mullah...that is a good question but Egypt does not care about Somalia. For instance do you know that they did not support our independence back in 1960? That they used to send arms and fake scholarships in order to indoctrinate our people and make them to blindly support Egypt for whatever the reason, especially the Nile issue. Egypt does not have a border with Ethiopia. Therefore Somalia is a perfect spot to launch it's anti-Ethiopia campaign. Do you know that Egypt humiliates the Somali leaders during Arab or International conferences unless they speak Arabic?

 

By the way I dont not mean that Ethiopia is our ally...Their governments equally worked/work towards the destruction of our nation.

 

In my view...Ethiopia, Egypt and Italy are the foreign powers that have contributed to the destruction of Somalia.

[Mr. Somalia]

Abwaan;681300 wrote:

 

In my view...Ethiopia, Egypt and Italy are the foreign powers that have contributed to the destruction of Somalia.

I concur. These countries are the true cause source and encouragement of Somalia's disunity in one shape or another. Now couple this, with all three being aligned to the world's only superpower, and America always blindly following their selfish policy interests regarding Somalia--this should explain to you why Somalis keep being divided into so many different political factions for the last 20 years or so.

 

Therefore as a Somali citizen, a conflict over water resources between Ethiopia and Egypt will not put my country in a worse situation than it already is in. If anything, these two countries will get a a taste of their own medicine.

[Mad_Mullah]

Abwaan;681300 wrote:

Mad_Mullah...that is a good question but Egypt does not care about Somalia. For instance do you know that they did not support our independence back in 1960? That they used to send arms and fake scholarships in order to indoctrinate our people and make them to blindly support Egypt for whatever the reason, especially the Nile issue. Egypt does not have a border with Ethiopia. Therefore Somalia is a perfect spot to launch it's anti-Ethiopia campaign. Do you know that Egypt humiliates the Somali leaders during Arab or International conferences unless they speak Arabic?

 

By the way I dont not mean that Ethiopia is our ally...Their governments equally worked/work towards the destruction of our nation.

 

In my view...Ethiopia, Egypt and Italy are the foreign powers that have contributed to the destruction of Somalia.

First of all I know Egypt doesn't care about Somalia, they don't even care about Ghaza, forget that they don't even care about their own people. Egypt I believe, will not start anything in Somalia as Shabab got the south on lock, I think they might finance the ONLF against the Ethiopians. Egypt does not humiliate the somali leaders during Arab conferences, speaking Arabic is something that they should do in Arabic conferences. I know, because I'm forced to watch the Arab league meetings everytime it comes on.