Abdullahi Yusuf - The history of a pathetic failure

[Liqaye]

By Bill Ainashe, Washington, DC

 

If recent reports from eastern parts of our country are something to go by, it seems that there are growing political insecurities and a looming military confrontation between Mr. Abdillahi Yusuf and the Rayale administration in Hargeisa. Both men are struggling in a vain attempt to gain political and military control of the dry and scarcely populated regions of Sool and Sanaag regions of the now defunct state of the former Somali Republic.

 

Unfortunately, the conflict seems to be escalating to the brink of a destructive war with no viable political or military solutions in sight in the near future. The reason is that the two main rivals of the conflict Mr. Rayale on one side and Mr. Abdillahi Yusuf on the other are locking their horns in a desperate attempt to out maneuver each other with a devastating political, economic and military consequences. Not to mention the certain bloodshed, and lost of human life that will follow if indeed war breaks out, which, sadly seems the most likely scenario at the moment for the reasons stated below.

 

In order to get some basic ideas of how the conflict is being played out and its likely outcome in the short term, it seems imperative to examine closely what is in the minds of the main actors, their apparent political objectives, the military and political options that are currently available to each camp.

 

Obviously, the two key actors of the current conflict are Abdillahi Yusuf of the “Puntland” regional administration and Dahir Rayale Kahin of the self-declared “Republic of Somaliland”. Unfortunately, the Somali people in those regions are caught in the middle as the unwilling and innocent third participant of a conflict that has been forced upon them by outside forces.

 

Mr. Abdillahi Yusuf is man who squandered his entire adult life in a military uniform; fighting wars, mainly guerilla wars, civil wars and violent armed confrontations with his political opponents. Hence, his political and logical mindset dictates that the best way to resolve conflict is by simply grabbing an AK-47 automatic riffle and eliminating political and military adversaries with brutal violence.

Needless to say, Mr. Yusuf is trapped in violent psychological mindset, as he cannot comprehend conflict solutions beyond the barrel of the gun. Sadly, for him violence seems to be the best means for achieving political objectives.

 

In a recent BBC Somali service interview Mr. Abdillahi Yusuf sounded like a tribal chief rather than a respectable Somali statesman. It seems that he believes wholeheartedly the illusive tribal demarcation lines rather than state borders based on political allegiance.

 

More importantly, Mr. Abdillahi Yusuf has very little to loose politically if war breaks out. Indeed, he will reap hefty political rewards in the event of new civil war in those regions. Here is why: First, he will be able to expand the territories under his political and military control. Second, he will be able to reduce Somaliland to a tiny and politically insignificant enclave dominated by one tribe. Third, he will gain more political power and influence to demand a bigger share of future Somali political settlement. Last but not least, the dream of national unity and revival of Somalia under one flag will greatly be enhanced by reducing the secessionist political influence to less than 100 square miles radius of Hargeisa.

 

On the other side of the political and the military demarcation lines, there is Mr. Rayale and his administration struggling to achieve political legitimacy after narrowly winning the recent presidential election. Mr. Rayale has everything to loose politically if Mr. Abdillahi Yusuf succeeds to consolidate his political and military power base by extending it to Sool and Sanaag regions. Indeed, by any analysis, it will most likely be the end of his administration if he fails to eject the militia that took control of Laas-Caanood by Mr. Abdillahi Yusuf’s orders.

 

There are several reasons for the current political and military desperations of Mr. Rayale and his administration, which could sadly force him to take a suicidal military action. First, as stated above, there are many people who wrongly believe that the presidential election results were not conclusive enough to give the political legitimacy he needs to govern. Needless to say, that is false and flawed argument as the current constitution that the election was conducted under requires simple majority rather than qualified majority for determining the threshold to win or loose in any given election. Nevertheless, this gives Mr. Riyaale’s political adversaries, mainly Mr. Silanyo and his henchmen some ammunition and political energy to bark wildly and idiotically on the other side of the tribal fence.

 

Second, he has been accused, in many occasions, that his enthusiasm for the decade long old unilateral secession of “Somaliland” from the rest of the country is at best lukewarm welcome and at worse a deceitful way of disguising his true political objectives, which is allegedly, to undermine the whole secessionist endeavor. In fairness, this accusation is nothing but a political smear campaign with a myopic tribalist ideology. And an attempt to underscore implicitly the fact that the people living in and around Mr. Rayale’s hometown are overwhelmingly against unilateral secession of Somaliland in fear of political and economic domination by Hargeisa and its political elite.

Third, despites the limited political and military options that are realistically available for Mr. Rayale, he cannot afford politically to sit and wait. He knows that letting Mr. Abdillahi Yusuf to complete full annexation of Sool and Sanaag regions will undoubtedly mean the demise of Somaliland, as we know it. Indeed, it will certainly be the end of his administration and as a result the demise of his short political life! The sad thing is, taking hasty, poorly planned and ill-thought military action to eject Abdillahi Yusuf and his militia from Sool and Sanaag is very risky to say the least with colossal political, economic and military consequence that will undoubtedly be detrimental to the very existence of Somaliland. But he has no other choice but to act.

 

The Tanzanian wise man, Mr. Abdirahman Babu commenting the Cold War conflict between the “West” and the Soviet Union and its politico-economic implications for the African continent, was once quoted as saying: when two elephants are making love it’s the grass that suffers and when they are fighting it is still the grass that pays the ultimate price of getting destroyed. For the simple and unfortunate reason of being on the wrong place at the wrong time with no power whatsoever to alter its doomed faith to destruction and death.

 

In a similar fashion, it’s the innocent, the powerless, the poor and the economically disadvantaged Somali people in those regions that will ultimately pay with their lives, and resources for a conflict they could hardly comprehend its political and military objectives. Indeed if asked, the fast majority of the people in those regions would most probably prefer to be left alone and go about their daily business of herding their camels. Indeed, they could not care less the colors of the tribal flag that is flying in their town center at any given time. They learned the hard way that a change of a Warlord, tribal ruler or tribal flag never paid any positive economic or political dividend. On the contrary, it simply brings to them, misery, bloodshed, human loss of life and disastrous economic and financial consequences that are beyond believe.

 

Sadly, the people also unwillingly become, in most cases, the innocent and the unwitting financial backers of all conflicts fought for issues they do not even understand. Like all armed conflicts in the past, the looming war is orchestrated on a dubious and irrational tribalist motives which will not help to bring about a lasting solution to the almost two decade long political anarchy in those regions and elsewhere in the country.

 

In short, war is not the answer to the current conflict for the simple reason that innocent Somalis will die on both sides of the illusive tribal demarcation lines with political and economic repercussions of unimaginable magnitude. Sadly, there are no viable political and peaceful solutions on the horizon. However, I believe Mr. Abdillahi Yusuf could, if he wants to, come to his senses and let the people of those regions decide their political destiny by expressing their collective political will on a ballot box rather than at the barrel of a gun. Sadly, there are no political or economic incentives for him to do so. More importantly, for him success and defeat are something that can only be measured at the barrel of the gun rather than by political means with respect for democratic values and the collective political will of the people. Hence, war looks inevitable.

 

I cannot help it but to keep thinking about Abdillahi Qarshe’s intellectually and emotionally challenging song of “Afrikaan Allahayow Maxaa laga Abuuraayey?” I wish someone knew.

 

By Bill Ainashe

Washington, DC.

United States

[Rokko]

^^^ Do ya wake up in the middle of the night having nightmares about this old fart?

 

Qabyaaladi way kaa waali wallee hadaad isku mashquuliso.

[Liqaye]

Gogol rag waa godob la’aan

 

Well is there no somali equivalent to na'mean?

[General Duke]

LOL, Again another Abdullahi story, a pathetic failure is the whole of Somalia and its leaders.

However I wonder why Abdullahi and why now?

Is it because of the Somaliland fascist moves on Sool Sanag and Ayn?

Or is it because he might get a good position in the Kenyan talks?

 

Hooganka, bro you need to start being objective, is Abdullahi worse than the leaders of the USC movement, Aydeed, Ali Mahdi, Qaynyare, Osman Ato?

Is he worse than Abdiqasin Salad Hassan?

In my point of view he is a better leader than all those fellow pathetic failures put together.

 

Pathetic is the article, Abdullahi is the president of Puntland like it or not.

[Rokko]

Mr Ceelbuur, Caydiid, Yalaxow, qanyare, Caato, and all those warlords never killed anyone. They are only trying to rid the country of savages and animals like Abdullahi Yusuf na'mean. They are nicely saveguarding the Somali union. May god bless them and their warriors.

 

Cabdullahi Yusuf killed 2 million in Garoowe, 1.5 million Somalis in Boosaaso, 3 million in Galkacyo and is now planning to kill 2 million in Laascaanood na'mean. He should be brought to Mogadishu and beheaded na'mean.

 

There ya have it my patriot na'mean. Those are the exact figures along with my input.

 

May your hate for reerhebel bee justified from now on.

 

take it easy waryaa.

[Liqaye]

Hehehe

Bro smith no i donot believe that the murderers of the USC are better than him, but is the issue going to degenerate into a my warlord is better than your warlord?

Forgive me also if i believe that one warlord in the company of warlords can vie for what ever is at stake, because they aint no diffrence!

 

SnW said:

 

Abdullahi is the president of Puntland like it or not.

 

It doesnt not really matter if i like it or not cause like i said every warlord has a right to his fiefdom not with standing by what name he calls it or the bunting he covers it with.

 

by the way what is puntland is it a regional administration or a country or can you tell me how much the pills cost that will make me feel that it actually exists?

[Liqaye]

Qayaxid daliileed.

 

mobb why are you so nervous?

Opposing puntland means opposing reer-hebel?

Opposing abdullahi means i am a qabiilist?

 

Maybe you did not understand my previous response ..Gogol rag waa godob la’aan..means my conscience is clean on that point and no hysterics on your part will make me bite.

And perhaps that skewerd thinking is what is messing up somalia.

[General Duke]

Brother,LOL

I dont deny that Ceel Buur exists I know it does because mindless violence occurs there every day, like yesterday when two clans killed over 20 people for the sake of what?

Brother ask the British and US governements if Puntland exists, ask the UN and our neigbouring states. Or ask your relatives and friends if the know the state, you lack knowledge dear lad.

 

As I knew before you only attacked Abdullahi because of clan hatred for Puntland, its evident that now you deny the state, do you see me denying Hobyo and Gurceel or the wells of Galgaduud? You talk high and mighty but what have your leaders, relatives done or Galgaduud what is Galgaduuds state today? Compare that neglected land of death,Xeeraare, Ceel Bur to the state of Puntland?

 

Pathetic is a man who talks about other peoples houses while neglecting his own.

[Rokko]

Mr. Ceelbuur, you are a funny dude. You really are. I will now rest my case and leave you with Smith's qoute

 

 

Originally posted by SmithNwestern:

As I knew before you only attacked Abdullahi because of clan hatred for Puntland, its evident that now you deny the state

 

Pathetic is a man who talks about other peoples houses while neglecting his own.

have fun

[Liqaye]

bro smith said:

 

 

Brother,LOL

I dont deny that Ceel Buur exists I know it does because mindless violence occurs there every day, like yesterday when two clans killed over 20 people for the sake of what?

Brother ask the British and US governements if Puntland exists, ask the UN and our neigbouring states. Or ask your relatives and friends if the know the state, you lack knowledge dear lad.

 

As I knew before you only attacked Abdullahi because of clan hatred for Puntland, its evident that now you deny the state, do you see me denying Hobyo and Gurceel or the wells of Galgaduud? You talk high and mighty but what have your leaders, relatives done or Galgaduud what is Galgaduuds state today? Compare that neglected land of death,Xeeraare, Ceel Bur to the state of Puntland?

 

Pathetic is a man who talks about other peoples houses while neglecting his own.

 

 

Saaxib let me tell you something about somalis regardless of where they are and what they are, they are all the SAME or a better way to make it clear to you is this...xaabadi sugtey.

 

Lad aww cmon is that all ruminate on this saying ....Shakhsi aan is xushmaynnin lama sharfo.

 

The U.S the U.N and the ethiopians have their intrests a united somalia not being one of them, indeed if i were to ask them they would say they got a damned good trained monkey at the reins there but shhhhhhh dont tell nobody, gormaa jaajuusnimo habashida lagu faani jireey?

 

You knew that i attacked abdullahi only because of qabil , well that is a nifty bit of telepathy you have got going on, does it happen often that poor blameless persecuted and miss understood abdullahi is attacked because of qabil, or do his supporters accuse all and sundry of that crime?

 

Well i might be talking high and mighty if the only other ones in the convo are spitting out at you from the ditch of qabiil, bro but as for my relatives does not your abdullahi want to govern them, with no less than the acclaimed policies he has adopted in boontiland.

 

My question to you is this the land you talk about indeed is not in puntland but it is in SOMALIA and there is were we part, i never make accusations against the people of puntland or gloat at their misfortune whilst pandering to the ethiopians, and accuse every one who might disagree with me of qabiil.

I am not that shortsighted somalia will survive long after abdullahi is gone and you guys are major civil servants that managed to burn the i love you notes to the hepatitis -B sufferer of garowe.

[General Duke]

Brother Hooganka, you are consistantly wrong, you asked bout Puntland and was given a frank answer. If you call it Bari, Somalia or Occupied Terretories thats your business and opinion it dosent carry much weight with the people of the state.However as you know the regions or state name is Puntland, its people and enemies call it Puntland.

 

The people of Puntland have worked hard and prospered in the time of war because they took care of local priorities thats why over 20 locations, cities to villages have Electricity and telephone infrestructure, Bossaso, Galkacyu have become big cities and Garowe has benefited from being state capital.

While we are all Somali's why does Burtinle and Carmo have better infrustructure than Hobyo, a port town with potential?

Why has Bossaso seen such growth in Compariosn to Haradhere. Dear boy its simple one region has a system of governement the other does not.

 

 

Brother your simplistic arguments about Ethiopia and warlords are getting boring, these warlords exist and everyone made pacts with Ethiopia, from Egal when Abdirashi Sharmarke was president, to the dictator Siyad Barre, the relationship with Ethiopia has always existed. Remember that the EPRDF was sponsored by the Somali state.

 

Lets summarise this again, Abdullahi Yusuf is the president of the Somali federal state of Puntland its true dear lad so swallow 2 or 3 pills

[Rokko]

Mr Ceelbuur, wasn't your hero Caydiid armed, cheered and supported by Ethiopia? hehehe

[Liqaye]

Smith n western:

 

Brother your simplistic arguments about Ethiopia and warlords are getting boring, these warlords exist and everyone made pacts with Ethiopia, from Egal when Abdirashi Sharmarke was president, to the dictator Siyad Barre, the relationship with Ethiopia has always existed. Remember that the EPRDF was sponsored by the Somali state

 

That argument must have sounded real nice, whilst you were formullating it but under the light of scrutiny it is shallow, all of these people you have named have indeed made pacts with the devil from the somaliland egal to your uncle siyaad, to your uncle yusuf, all it means that these men used the enemy of our people to oppress and delay the aspirations of our people at every turn

 

Secondly how in gods name do you put Egal the prime minister of somalia concluding agreements between two sovreign countries on the same par with the garowe maniac?

 

Is this all i can expect from you.

Or is your hallucination not worth a damn?

 

 

Bro mobb i am sorry that aideed is such a bogeyman to you, but again i ask why do you suppose i supported him?

[Baashi]

H.I.,

Col. Yusuf is no angel and no one can deny he rules with fist iron - his dictatorial style speaks volumes...Nevertheless I support Puntland State in which he is the absolute king; the alternative is not pretty considering his insistence to hold on to power by any means necessary.

 

Let me also agree with you that PL is a political creation of its constituents, which happen to be members of the same tribe. Support and consent of its residents is what makes the area a “recovery zone” - still there is room for improvement. They are not threat to their neighbors for one thing. They choose to move on with their lives yet they are absolutely and unequivocally for united, inclusive, and peaceful Somalia when and if the consent of all concerned participants materializes.

 

What is it that you object about the route PLers had taken considering the anarchic reality of the Somalia that once existed?

 

How would you go about if you faced the dilemma faced by the PL elites? Dilemma : let the warlords and their mafia do what they do best or embrace any workable political solution available?

 

Finally, my position is Somalia would be better place if its polity can unite behind other political policies other than clan platforms. In reality and on the ground that is not the case.

[Gabbal]

Xeeraare

It's Xeraale walaal.