Why Abdullahi Yusuf will win…

[General Duke]

When the election takes place Insha Allah Abdullahi will be President or at least PM if he lost in the second round. Here a simple explanation follows.

 

There are 50+ candidates but there are only three main ones.

 

Abdulahi Ahmed Adow

Abdiqasin Salad Xasan

Abdullahi Yusuf Ahmed.

 

 

Now if we split up the parliament into the various factions, coalitions and clan groupings, we can clearly see each of the above four candidate’s supporters.

 

• Abdullahi Ahmed Adow will get, most support from civil society, disgruntled TNG, some tribal groups. Somaliland clans

 

• Abdiqasin will get, Loyal TNG, G8, some other clan groupings,.

 

• Abdullahi Yusuf will get, SRRC, Puntland, some clan groupings.

 

 

The last three standing would be these, each getting more than 50, but no more than 100 votes in the second round.

 

Abdullahi Yusuf -

 

Adow,

 

Abdiqasin,

 

If this was the case each candidate would need the others votes to win, much like what happened at Arta with Galayr’s 60 + votes going to Abdiqasin and defeating Adow.

 

Then it is simple Abdullahi would win by promising either Adow or Abdiqasin the PM which ever one suited him. If he happened to lose in the second round then he would give his votes to either of them in exchange for the PM position.

 

The SRRC/Puntland/ Clan groupings that make up Abdullahi’s support base have approximately 100 votes. Abdullahi only needs 51 more to win in the last round. Now it’s easy to see that if he does not win outright then his 100 votes are needed by a candidate to secure the presidency.

 

For all Adow’s hype he has neither the money, nor the influence to get 151 votes without doing a deal, its unlikely that he can do a deal with Abdiqasin as he wants a top position which he cannot give due to the clan distribution system.

 

One of the three will be out of a top job and it wont be Yey………

[Gabbal]

One of the three will be out of a top job and it wont be Yey………

There's a lot if "ifs" in your post Smith. If this happens, if that happens.

 

Why don't you wait and let us see.

[General Duke]

Brother Horn, I cant say it will happen thats for the Lord to decide all I can do is present an analysis of the facts on the ground.

 

Now if you have a problem with these facts, by all means say something and dont beat around the bush.

 

As you know we have to wait for a while longer dear bro, as the election has been pushed back to the 10th of October.

[Liqaye]

The TNG has comprehensivley bailed on Abdiqasin he is a straw man, and in the best somali political tradition does not see himself as so.

 

This election is a straight race between Addow and Yusuf.

 

So that leads to.....

 

For all Adow’s hype he has neither the money, nor the influence to get 151 votes without doing a deal, its unlikely that he can do a deal with Abdiqasin as he wants a top position which he cannot give due to the clan distribution system.

Abdiqasin is out of the picture there by rendering null your assertation.

 

But really we are just singing inthe wind.

[General Duke]

Abdiqasin was the TNG, Ibbi, Mohamed Abdi Yusuf and others are still on his pay role and will do what it takes to get him maximum exposure.

 

 

But really we are just singing inthe wind.

True, but the fact that he is in Narobi spending vast amount of money on the election. The fact that he is a master at playing the clan card, I think Abdiqasin is still in the race, not the he is a favourite but he can make some damage.

 

Some of the members in the Parliment are clearly his suporters, others can be persuaded given the right price.

 

I dont like the guy much but I think he can derail Abti Adows chances. All he has to do is get 50+ votes and he is still in.

[General Duke]

Tartanka 10-ka Oktoobar Ee Madaxweynenimada Yaa Kusoo Baxaya?

 

Tartanka madaxwenanimada oo lagu waday inuu dhaco 22-ka September oo haatan dib loogu dhigay 10-ka Oktoobar ayaa la isweydiinayaa yaa kusoo bixi doona? Haddaba faalladan waxaan ku qaadaa dhigaynaa ragga ugu cad cad maxaa nin walba fursado ama caqabado horyaalla?

 

Sida muuqata marka laga hadlayo doorashada jagadan waxaa laf iiriyaa in marka hore sida loo bartay la eego isku dheelli tirka beelaha oo macnaheedu tahay inkasto aysan sax ahayn in jagadana markii beelaha Baydhabo qaateen gudoonka baarlamaanka ay ku soo harayaan tartankeeda beelaha H iyo D maadama aan Waqooyigu iyagu si dhab ah shirka ugu jirin, beelaha isutaggana aysan haatan dufuurta sooyaalka ah ogalaanayn, inkastoo wax u diidayaa aysan jirin sharci iyo caqli ahaan.

 

Beelaha H oo soo jireenkii shirarkii lasoo dhaafay iska haysan jiray jagadan ayaan shirkan markii ugu horraysay looga cadcad yahay isu soo mutuxidda xilkan ayna suurta gal tahay inay jagada xigta ee la magacaabo ee ah Ra'isul wasaaraha helaan.

 

Inkastoo beelaha magacyadooda la nabsanayo aysan nimankan soo dirsan ama aysan matalin ayaa hadana taargada kaliya ee lagu sunto laguna salaynayo isku dheeli tirka xil-beeleedka siyaasadeen uu ka dhigayaa in loo saariyo beelaha ay kasoo jeedan inay jagadaa qaateen.

 

Ragga la sheegayo inay tartanka u cad cad yihiin ayaa dhinacna D C/llaahi Yuusuf uu yahay kaligii ninka ugu cad cad halka beesha H ay musharraxiin badan beesha ka soo safan yihiin kuwaasoomidkoodna uusan lahayn wax muuqda oo uu la cadcadaan karo marka la eego xagga shakhsiyaddiisa ama magac-jufeedka uu ku daaqi rabo taasoo dadka qaar ay kala soo baxyaan in C/llaahi Yuusuf uu yahay ninka markaa ugufursadda roon.

 

Marka laga yimaado dhinaca beesha uu kasoo jeedo iyo sida aan loogu garbinayn ayaa waxaa C/llahi yussuf usii dheer inuu ka socda isbahaysiga SRRC oo Itoobiya xiriirka la leh, taasoo marna noqon karta sabab taag darri, mar haddii ninkii ay wateen baarlamaanka uu waayey marna noqon karta sabab xoogaynaysa maadaama ay Itoobiya tahay dawladda ugu xoogga roon kuwa shirka hagaya ayna dhici karto in la tix galiyo isku dheelli tirka kooxaha siyaasadeed sida loo ilaalinayo tan beeleed, taasoo iyana fursad u nqonaysa C/llahi maadaama uu yahay murashaxa SRRC ugu cadcad.

 

Waxaa intaa usii dheer in uu yahay nin haatanba degaan ballaaran oo uu ka taliyo gacantaku haya oo uusan nin fara maran ahayn dadka qaarna u arki karaan nin adag ooaan jilcisanayn oo adaygaa wax ku qaban kara, waxaase dhinaca kale caqabad ku noqon kara inay jiraan siyaasiyiin ruug caddaa ah oo isla beeshiisa kasoo jeeda kuwaasoo olole ka dhan ah wada.

 

Sidoo kale waxaa caqabad ku ah in dad badani danbiyoo dil iyo colaado soo dhex maray u haystaan, halka kuwa kelana ay beel ahaan u diiddan yihiin sidiiba caydiid beelaha qaar beel ahaan u diiddanaayeen maadaama ay urkaan inuu yahay nin gudaamaya. Sidoo kale ku xirnaanshaha aadka udhaw ee itoobiya iyana dad badan ayaa ku diiddan, waxaase ugu daran oo cabsida ugu weyn uga imaan kartaa in wixii Aadan madoobe ku dhacay qabsadan waa haddii inta SRRC ka baxsan ay isku dhiinac ka maraan.

 

 

Ragga kale ee ka soo jeeda beelaha H ayaa iyaga guud ahaan isbar bar yaacoodu caqabad ku yahay, aysanna jirin nin aad uga dhex cad cad oo la saadaalin karo. Cadow iyo Caydiid ayaa iyagu isku jufo kasoo jeeda taasoo laga yaabo in nin kasta jaaniskiisa ay wax u dhinto, inkastoo ninna uusan codka jufadiisa wax u qabanaynin oo waxa ugu weyn ay tahay inta uu xidhibaannada kale cod ka heli karo. Haddii kooxo ahaan la yiraahdo kooxda SRRC oo uu kasoo jeedo xuseen Caydid waxaad moodda inuu C/llahi yusuf ka rashaxan yahay, beel ahaanna uusan caydiid H dhexdeeda ku fursad badnayn oo taa Caddaw uu ku dhaamo.

 

C/qaasim ayaa isna ah ninka kooxda TNG-da ka dhex muuqda, lana sheegayo inuu dhaqaale badan meesha la dhex wareegayo oo taasi ay tahay fursadihiisa ayaa waxaa caqabad ku ah inuu shakhsi ahaan yahay qof soo dhammaystan fursaddiisii dahabiga ahayd oo dadka agtooda ka ah waji aan cusbayn oo horay wax usoo qaban kari waayey.

 

Caddaw oo isagu ilaa iyo Carte jagada usoo taagnaa tii Cartana faro ciddi leh ay kaga baxsatay ayaa ah nin cusub oo aan weli la tijaabin, rajana ka qaba maadamauusan Cadawna ku xirnayn, dagaal sokeeyana uusan galin inuufursad leeyahay waxaase isna caqabad ku noqon karta inuusan haysan xulufo siyaasadeed sida SRRC, G8 Iyo TNG, sidoo kalena uu jiro murashax isla jufadiisii hoose kala socda, dhul uu ka talinayey iyo il dhaqaale oo muuqatana uusan gacanta ku hayn sida dekad iwm, waase nin rajadiisu aysan xumayn.

 

Qanyare oo horyaal cusub oo haysta il dhaqaale, ahna nin aftahan oo ku wacan la doodista ciddii kasoo horjeedda weliba si xarrago leh ayaa isna tartan ragga ugu cad cad ku jira waxaase caqabad isna ku ah tartanka rag kale ay kula jiraan oo guud ahaan beesha H kasoo jeeda iyo isagoo aysan kooxda G8 ku filnayn una baahan inuu helo codad kale ama isbahasi kale oo uu la sii galo SRRC ama kooxda TNG-da taasoo keenaysa inuu jaga labaad maahane uusan mida hore sidaa ku heli karin.

 

Marka lasoo dhaafo nin kasta waxa shakhsi ahaan ama xulofo ahaan uu ku heli karo ama kuwayn karo, waxaa iyana ku xisaabtan kale leh, waxa nin kasta uu dhaqaale heli karo taasoo la sheegayo in in badan oo codadka xubnaha baarlamaanka ay beec yihiin, lana sheegayo in ragga qaarba sii billaabeen lacag carbuun ah bixinteed iyo kitaab marin inaad ii codaynayso ah , iyadoo ay horayna xildhibaannadu u qabaan kitaab-marin ah inay dalka iyo dadka dantooda daacad u ahaanayaan, taasoo kitaabmarintii ka dhigaysa mid isburinaysa ama been laba nmibaaran.

 

Ugu danbayntii iyadoo aan si xadidan loo saadaalin karin waxa kasoo bixi kara iyo inay si sahlan wax uga soo baxyaan ayaa waxaa muuqata iyadoo la ilaalinayo isku dheellitirkii soo jireen ka ahaa ay nqoqonaysaa in haddii nin beelaha D ah uu helo jagadan 1aad uu u baahan yahay nin H ka socda oo codadkiisa ugu buuxiya wareegga ugu danbeeya oo isna uu jagada xigta siiyo, taasoo ka dhigaysa in C/llaahi Yuusuf uu haysto fursad uu ku heli karo jagada koowaad ama sidii Galayr uu codadkiisa nin ay wax isku darsan karaan ugu shubi karo wareegga ugu danbeeya oo ra'isul wasaare ku heli karo. Halka labada murashax ee ugu cad caddaata beelaha H uu midna quud darrayn doono inuu wareegga ugu danbeeya uu safto oo inuu wax ku waayo iyo inuu wax ku helaba leh, halka midka codadkiisu tusiyaan inuusan tartanka ugu danbeeya gali karin uu ku qasban yahay inuu ninka reer D gali kara wareeggan ugu danbeeya wax la qaybsado. Haddii ay dhacdo in labo H masalan isugu soo haraan wareegga ugu danbeeya waxaa ninka ugu codadka roon reer D uu heli karaa awoddii uu ku kala rajixi lahaa oo jagada labaad ay bannaanka u taallo mar haddii labo isku H ah ama D ah aysan labada jago isku darsan karin.

[General Duke]

Hey Smith: who even knows that Abdullahi Yusuf will carry Puntland votes?

Young Otali, alas your predictions have been found wanting, remember the 48 hours deadline for Morgan life and all the other garbage.

 

Brother I am having real doubts that Adow will make it even as PM now, read the above article from www.goobjoog.com and you realise that Adow cannot rely on TNG, SRRC, G8 or even his clans votes. He has no real support base other than Otali and www.hobyonet.com

 

It is a three horse race, Abdiqasin with money, Adow with photo's, Abdullahi ith the SRRC and money. who will make the cut???

 

For every Musa how many Mohamed Dhere do you think are there?

 

Forget about Jama Ali he was lucky to get his position as MP, and Puntland will vote for Adow hell no. did you know that Xasan Ashir is chairman of Yey's election campaign?

 

Oh and I hear that the Somaliland MP's are being bought up by two of the candidates, so much for dinner with Sifir

[General Duke]

now that's a carreer, other Somalis can only dream of, I always thought he was valuable to us (the pro-Yeey group).

Damn right, he is quite a talented individual, there is also Walde and Azhari, Cade Muse and a number of other heavy hitters from Puntland, along with Abdullahi Shiekh Ismael, Abdirizaq Shiekh yusuf, Hillowle Iman, Mohamed Ghamadere, and even Xuseen Aydeed working to get our man the top post

[General Duke]

Simply Perposterious!

Is what Abdullahi Ahmed Adow is, a simple man with no vision, no chance of leading the country and if he did it will be like A/Qasin's TNG but a little bit worse.

[Mombasa_QUEEN]

who is abdulahi yusuf or them somali guys