Asif Ali Zardari husband of late Bhuto President of Pakistan

[General Duke]

Pakistan: Bhutto's shadow lingers as Zardari takes reins of powerBenazir's husband is voted in amid muted rejoicing, but army hostility and militant violence could threaten hopes for stability

 

Asif Ali Zardari, husband of the late Benazir Bhutto, will be sworn in today as President of Pakistan, arguably the most powerful civilian to take the office in the volatile, nuclear-armed state for more than 30 years.

 

Zardari takes power at a time of extreme instability, with the strategically crucial state struggling to contain a growing Islamic militant insurgency and deal with a crumbling economy. The challenges facing the new head of state, who controversially looks set to remain leader of the Pakistan People's Party (PPP), were reinforced yesterday by a blast in the western city of Peshawar, which killed 17 and injured scores more. In a separate incident, Pakistan's military said 24 people were killed after residents of a village in the unruly northwest foiled a militants' kidnap attempt, then were attacked.

 

The 53-year-old former businessman's election to the post - in an indirect vote in Pakistan's two-chamber National Assembly and four provincial parliaments - failed to fire enthusiasm among a disillusioned population, though some PPP supporters danced in the streets yesterday. Polls last week showed that 44 per cent of people rejected all three candidates for the post.

 

The shadow of Bhutto, assassinated last December shortly after her return from exile to Pakistan, was evident everywhere. Pro-Zardari members of parliament, some in tears, shouted 'Long live Bhutto!' as the results came in. The couple's two jubilant but tearful daughters, one carrying a portrait of her mother, smiled and hugged friends in the National Assembly's gallery. 'It is the beginning of a new era of stability and prosperity for Pakistan,' Javed Mir, the PPP information secretary, said.

 

However, there are many misgivings within Pakistan and in the international community. 'The problem with Zardari is not that he is an unknown quantity, it is that he is a known quantity,' said Dr Farzana Shaikh, of London's Chatham House think-tank. Zardari has been hounded by corruption allegations throughout his career, though he has no outstanding convictions, and does not share the charisma or broad appeal of his late wife. He is also seen as a relative political novice.

 

One immediate worry for observers hoping for stability is Zardari's defeat in the Punjab, Pakistan's richest and most populous province, where MPs loyal to Nawaz Sharif, the conservative former Prime Minister and a bitter rival of Zardari, are in a majority.

 

'We don't want any conflict or instability between the Punjab and the national government and will be working with Mr Sharif to avoid it,' said the PPP's Mir.

 

However, relations between Zardari and Sharif, who has substantial popular support, are poor, with a bitter and ongoing row over the reinstatement of judges sacked by former President Pervez Musharraf last year.

 

Zardari will inherit the wide-ranging powers assumed by former army general Musharraf, who resigned when threatened with impeachment last month. He will thus be able to dismiss parliament and appoint the chief of Pakistan's armed forces, which traditionally see themselves as the guarantors of the nuclear-armed nation's security and stability. Some regard a confrontation as likely.

 

'For the moment Zardari can count on the army taking a back seat, but it is no secret that he is loathed by the military,' said Chatham House's Shaikh. 'The army has historically allowed politicians to become so unpopular that when it finally steps in there is a huge collective sigh of relief across the country.' Zardari has gone out of his way recently to reassure a worried Washington of his support in the 'war on terror'. Pressure has been increasing on Pakistan in recent months to crack down on Taliban militants based in the west of the country who cross the porous border to fight in Afghanistan against Nato troops. Many believe that elements within the Pakistani security establishment - especially the powerful military intelligence services - are supporting factions within the Taliban.

 

Last week the tension was raised by what appeared to be the first cross-border raid into Pakistan by US troops based in Afghanistan. Islamabad reacted angrily, claiming that 20 civilians had been killed in the attack and its sovereignty violated. To show its displeasure, it has blocked fuel supplies reaching the international troops at border points on the route from the southern port of Karachi. 'We have told them that we will take action ... We have stopped the supply of oil and this will tell how serious we are,' Defence Minister Chaudhry Ahmed Mukhtar told a television channel.

 

However, Pakistan receives about £60m in military aid each month from the US to support operations against the militants and is reliant on international aid to prop up its ailing economy, so the measures are likely to be short-lived.

 

The election of Zardari has been greeted warily across the region. In Kabul, officials insist that the new President must rein in those elements they allege are supporting the Taliban. 'That is what is poisoning our relationship,' said one.

 

In India, the response has been more positive, although there are considerable concerns over the 'structural limitations' on any civilian Pakistani government's power.

 

'Zardari is not military nor is he part of the Punjabi elite, and his statements about India so far have been realistic and positive, especially his focus on economic co-operation,' said Professor G. Parthasarathy, of the Centre for Policy Research in New Delhi. 'However, we have to be realistic about his freedom of action.'

 

Brigadier Arun Sahgal, of the Institute of Defence Studies and Analyses in New Delhi, pointed out that recent violence in Kashmir, where Indian security forces killed local Muslim demonstrators, had not been exploited by Pakistan. 'That sent a good message,' he said.

 

'The Indian position, like that of the US and the Europeans, is that we want the stabilisation of political forces in Pakistan,' the brigadier added.

 

Most diplomats privately admit that working with Zardari is very much 'plan B'. London and Washington both prefer the pro-Western, secular widower of Bhutto, whom they hoped would become Prime Minister on returning last year, to Sharif who, more politically and religiously conservative than his rival, is seen as less likely to fight the militants. However, Sharif better reflects the growing anti-American and anti-Western sentiment among Pakistanis.

[General Duke]

[v]Zardari's life and times[/b]

· Born in 1955 in Nawabshah, Sindh

 

· Married Benazir Bhutto in 1987

 

· Bhutto elected Prime Minister 1988

 

· Zardari imprisoned for blackmail in 1990. Released in 1993. Jailed again for graft in 1997 and released in 2004

 

· He and Bhutto went into self-imposed exile in 1999, which they spent in Washington, London and Dubai

 

· Returned to Pakistan with Bhutto in October 2007

 

· Co-chairmanship of the Pakistan People's Party after Bhutto's assassination on 27 December, 2007

 

· Won majority in the elections of February 2008

 

· Last corruption case against him dropped in July this year

 

· Became President of Pakistan, 6 September, 2008